Sunday Commentary: Spring Forward Edition

Anyone else forget about losing an hour today?

I know I did... Why is the time change one of those things you don't remember 'till someone tells you about that fact the day of....

Market Thoughts:

Here's an axiom: bullish trends never end on "bearish" news (and vice versa). The last few weeks have witnessed some extremely scary headlines.

Saudi Arabia was about to experience a "Day of Rage." Then, next thing you know, an 8.9 Earthquake hits Japan, causing thousands of deaths, and leaving millions without power and food and...a nuclear meltdown imminent.

Sounds pretty scary, right?

Well, it is pretty scary (and awful) until you realize there are SIX Billion people in the world who, sadly, don't really care that much. American Idol will be on Wednesday night, right?

Which brings us back to the thesis of this missive: Bullish trends ONLY end when all the bullish news is fully discounted in the price (and vice versa).

Given that concept, the primary wave count presented in this update (Slide 2) might make a little more sense.

Hope everyone had a good weekend and is enjoying some nicer weather.

It's Spring Break here in Katy, Texas so this author will be out next weekend in Austin, TX at SXSW. If you don't know what that acronym means, then you're just not cool enough for me.
Just kidding....I'm incredibly "uncool."

Market Commentary 13Mar11


Anonymous said...

SXSW is, always, a good thing to 'See'..

on that Note, hard to believe it's 'here', already..

speaking of 'Spring Break', I know, at this end, it's, definitely, past, Time to get 'further South' for some heavier Rays..


karen said...

Andy, my older son will be visiting Austin (and his father) for the SXSW ; )
I have been encouraged to fly out also as the probability of a CA earthquake this coming week is rather elevated.. thanks for the charts! Will get to them momentarily.

Anonymous said...


as well, see:

you're 'seconding' my Thesis, re: FDIC, has attracted, yourself, a 'following'...


Random Weblog Syntax Officer said...

f******' homonyms...


AmenRa said...

Thanks for the charts Andy. The SPX finally closed below its weekly 3LB mid. Sentiment has swung to the bearish case. The SPX even tested its weekly 3LB reversal. Another test is in the works if the bulls fail to make their case.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

I think the Reuters article makes sense. And if Toyota is shutting down, won't be long before that spare part for your 2008 model is hard to find.

People have opined that this tragedy won't make much difference. Guess we'll see.

I-Man said...

Is the nik really down 5%? Got a lot of conflicting quotes going on...

Anonymous said...

Latest explosion.
Seem to be getting bigger mate.


Anonymous said...
Japanese volcano erupts

Mar 13, 2011 3:01 PM | By Sapa-AFP

A volcano in southwestern Japan erupted Sunday after nearly two weeks of relative silence, sending ash and rocks up to four kilometres (two and a half miles) into the air, a local official says.....


And the planets don't get aligned good until the 19th.
Hang on Sloopy.


Anonymous said...

Looks like they JBTFD.


Anonymous said...

This is no baby eruption.
Holy crap, they must feel cursed.


Anonymous said...

from TBP via Bloomberg..

"...“The Bank of Japan poured a record 12 trillion yen ($146 billion) into the world’s third-biggest economy today as the strongest earthquake in the nation’s history triggered a plunge in stocks and surge in credit risk.

The yen fell after the central bank added funds to the financial system, reversing earlier gains against the dollar on speculation authorities would sell the currency to aid exporters. Governor Masaaki Shirakawa yesterday said he is ready to unleash “massive” liquidity to support markets . . .

Japan faces power blackouts, the risk of meltdowns at a nuclear power station, and a predicted death toll of more than 10,000 after the 8.9-magnitude temblor and subsequent tsunami devastated northeastern regions. More than 350,000 people are in emergency shelters. The central bank, meeting from noon in Tokyo, may respond to the disaster with tools other than policy rates, already cut to near zero to counter deflation.”..."

Anonymous said...

'aftershocks' keep rolling on..


also, @ 02:07

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