Afternoon Delight - aka (Day After Ides of March - Pre St. Patty's Day)

63 comments:

ben22 said...

@Jennifer,

from previous thread

very good chance that it is...as AT pointed out last night there isn't necessarily the fibo relationship in the expanding triangle but 1.618 x the a wave was ~1250....

I'm not confident enough to say it's over for sure, but I traded some in as if it were.

I'll short at a lower price if I need to, whatever the market serves up. That was always my big takeaway from Market Wizards, those guys aren't afraid to buy a stock back that they sold lower.

Jennifer said...

Yeah -- that and options and ice cubes melt in 3 days. Thanks.

CV said...

@ben

but no doubt....the Fed planned it that way.

I didn't say the Fed planned it... All I said was that it co-incidentally correlated with the same QE schedule...

And as far as FIBO numbers are concerned... You KNOW I'm a firm believer of those ratios...

But what I'm saying is that WHEN a breakdown occurs, it's LOGICAL that the market is going to make a run for the FIBONACCI levels (and similar fractals)...

I'd NEVER be able to confirm 'manipulation' theories... But something in my PEA BRAIN tells me not to wholeheartedly discount them either...

It's called "CV's little HEDGE - that the market is just a bunch of random people with their "pattern recognition software" firing off trades in UNISON with hopeful little central bankers & primary dealers sitting up on their balconies HOPING, just HOPING for the love of Dog, that the carnage works out in their favor...

You know... The same way that Bugsy (who laid a million dollars on Penn State to beat Temple - is just HOPING that those Temple boys miss some clutch free throws down the stretch)...

TWSWB'S said...

CASH AND LONG...

JUST WATCH ME ROLL!

Anonymous said...

http://www.optionpain.com/OptionPain/Option-Pain.php

always interesting..

AAIP

CV said...

TWSWB obviously looking to get some REIT exposure...

Anonymous said...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/market-surges-latest-deux-ex-machina-kyodo-warns-chain-reaction-could-restart

Not to quibble, but a chain reaction is an unstoppable chain of events.
Either there never was a chain reaction or it has continued unabated.
Guess where I would place my money

foghorn

I-Man said...

I'll be satisfied with the end of the first chunk of the move off 2/18 if we close 200 pts lower or so from here.

If we get bid again, then it lasts longer.

I-Man said...

So it depends on the tape fighters... I mean, dip buyers...

How do you want it? How do you feel?

(Love ya Nate Dogg)

ben22 said...

CV,

as has been discussed many times, there is always some news that seems to correlate with market movements, then of course you can find news at the same period that doesn't correlate, so all you are doing here is being selective about the news you want to focus on around certain dates to help them make sense, in this case January 2010.

Like I've now said several times just today, you can do whatever you like....that aint my style.

AmenRa said...

New scientific discovery announced. The half life of PPT is 2100 sec.

karen said...

i love love love the C p&f target of 1.25..

actually, xlf hit my target of 15.80.. but i was distracted with a long distance phone call (just my luck) and didn't sell my faz..

the close is shaping up to be a downer tho..

ben22 said...

tell me some of you are watching CNBC right now

its too funny

apparently we are in a rebound right now....

Jennifer said...

AR -- hysterical!

karen said...

Twitter has been down FOR EVER, sighing..

AmenRa said...

re: Chain reaction

quote from article:

"a far more troubling report has emerged from the New Scientist (citing Kyodo) which may explain why TEPCO and Japanese authorities have been so tight lipped about the actual truth of what is happening at Fukushima. To wit: "The situation at Japan's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant has become extremely unnerving. The Tokyo Electric Power Company has now admitted that the spent fuel rods could go critical - that is, a nuclear chain reaction could restart." This would be an absolute worst case disaster which would make Chernobyl look like a dress rehearsal."

ben22 said...

just got a phone call from some nice kid at DWS

he wanted to let me know that the fundamentals for munis are getting better and they have some great products

ended the call by saying


"if you ever want to know about inflation, or get updates on Japan just give us a call"

thanks so much DWS! where would I be without these guys.....priceless.

Let me say it one more time: Wall of worry, my ass.

I-Man said...

I havent watched CNBC in over a year, but I'd bet my shirt they have some sell side douche out there saying its a buying opp.

karen said...

YCS headed toward low of day again.. a good tell.

Anonymous said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
I-Man said...

James Paulsen probably...

AmenRa said...

1258.10 is 50% of the recent advance.

CV said...

so all you are doing here is being selective about the news you want to focus on around certain dates to help them make sense, in this case January 2010.

Just putting food items on the buffet table here...

Some like caviar & Dom Perignon, some like "Mountain Dew & gherkins"... I'm guessing karen is more the caviar & Dom type...

But anyway, the only way to be a BAD HOST is to offer NO FOOD AT ALL... Then again, I suppose "some" hosts simply inform their guests to BYOB...

Anonymous said...

http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2011/03/16/article-1366670-0B32096D00000578-100_964x703.jpg

Re spent fuel rods

They are in there somewhere I am sure.

foghorn

karen said...

Credit Suisse's Keitel Says `Too Early' to Buy Japan Stocks as Yen Rises http://ow.ly/4fPBS

ben22 said...

CV,

it's only a buffet table if you include ALL the news that was reported in Jan 2010, otherwise you are just serving up the menu you selected.

sure offering no food at all would be bad hosting, so would limiting the buffet choices to what you "felt in your gut" people would like best

this has always been my point when discussing news and trying to apply it to the markets, it always, without fail, involves a major bias but much worse than that.... there is no news that can tell you that your thesis is wrong until its too late.

I believe we all enforce our own bias on charts, you have to in order to place a trade, but at least there are things we can watch that tell us we are wrong, if, for example, people latched on to the idea that:

bad news is good news

because it means more QE, as we can clearly see over the last month, there is no way at all to distinguish what "bad news" is actually "good news"

Anonymous said...

But look on the bright side,
they've almost got the new power line ran,
plug it in and presto.
No problem

foghorn

Anonymous said...

anyone else seeing, then 'not seeing', Posts?

Posts that are 'disappearing'?

AAIP

Anonymous said...

try this again:

SPX 50 & 200 SMA

CV said...

@ben

& anyway (on the subject of buffet tables)...

If FUKUSHIMA ultimately melts down and sends a cloud of radiation over the Pacific... My "hedge" is that I'll be over in WVA with 2 tons of food & fresh water stored underground...

I won't need to need to leave my trade station to run to the supermarket looking for the last jar of Peter Pan...

I'm thinking that some of my neighbors will find the gherkins & Mountain Dew quite tasty in that moment...

Anonymous said...

screw it- okay DJIA- whatever . . .yahoo

CV said...

call that my "gut feeling" (in terms of PLANNING & ANALYSIS)...

Silly, I know, NOT to rely on CHARTS in EXTRAPOLATING OUTCOMES...

Anonymous said...

purr-fect..

Nigeria 'back' in the 'News'..

Oil facility blown up in Nigeria's southern delta
2 minutes ago

(AP:LAGOS, Nigeria) Nigeria's military spokesman says there has been an explosion at an oil facility in the West African nation's oil-rich southern delta.

Lt. Col. Timothy Antigha said Wednesday that an oil well head was blown up at Clough Creek in Bayelsa state. He said he did not know of any casualties from the explosion late Tuesday night.

An e-mailed statement sent to journalists Wednesday night allegedly claimed the attack was by a militant group known as The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta. It couldn't be immediately verified if the message came from the group.

Antigha said an investigation was under way.

Militants in the restive region have attacked pipelines, kidnapped petroleum company employees and fought government troops since 2006.

http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=6897707252710

ibid.

ben22 said...

yeah, no doubt they would, and if the world ends, and the food runs out

they might eventually find you to look pretty tasty as well

I mean....you do work out and stuff.....ROR!

Anonymous said...

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=YRCW

now ~1.47

anyone have the -0- 'Bullseye painted on this one?

ibid.

Anonymous said...

ibid
Yes
Mostly mine

foghorn

Jennifer said...

I can prepare for lots of things, but making myself a less appealing treat for the hungry hoards is not one of them.

I-Man said...

Wonder how long it will take for crude to tag 120...

Game, set, match.

I-Man said...

Oh yeah, I'm thinking next week...

Forgot that part.

AmenRa said...

Bulls looked out the car window at 1258.10 and told the driver to back up.

CV said...

"if the world ends, and the food runs out"

Don't worry... It'll never happen, we'll only get a 61.8% retrace of what we've accomplished so far...

But you know what Andy says... It hardly ever stops at a 61.8% re-trace...

That's why I went BEYOND the 1 ton (and took it to 1.618)... The rest is for the pack of dogs to keep the zombies away)... :-)

ben22 said...

wtf

fire alarm at the office

see you guys tomorrow

AmenRa said...

Ruh roh. Driver just exited the car on the train tracks with the bulls locked in the back seat.

CV said...

@jennifer (3:53)

Well you basically have two choices... You could go with the:

1. POTASSIUM IODIDE (protecting the thyroid)

2. POTASSIUM CYANIDE (L-Pill)... That's what the CIA uses as it's suicide pill...

Choose WISELY when oredering on E-Bay - lol

karen said...

I tossed my Potassium Iodides.. and to think i coulda sold them on ebay..

I-Man said...

I doubt if things get that bad that those pills will do much for you.

You'll have bigger fish to fry.

Anonymous said...

I second that I Man
Same with the stupid little hospital mask.

foghorn

I-Man said...

I-Man Jah Lion was on the prowl today...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rRPGluA9xqY&feature=related

Troddin out inna the jungle one day...

Anonymous said...

http://www.ki4u.com/faq-part-2.htm#8t

Q: How Do You Make a Potassium Iodide (KI) Solution?
A: Prepared Potassium Iodide (KI) solutions are only available by prescription, such as Lugol's Solution. However, anyone can buy Potassium Iodide USP at a chemical supply house (and even some larger photo supply outlets) and readily mix up their own Potassium Iodide (KI) solutions that is every bit as effective as the tablets. Also, we were recently reminded by a science teacher, that every town in America likely has a ready and waiting supply of KI sitting in their high school science labs that could protect hundreds of their students and local residents! A single 500 gram bottle of KI, now already on many of their shelves, could provide 3,846 adult daily doses or 7,692 child (age 3-12) thyroid-blocking doses! Community leaders need to pull together their resourceful science teachers, local pharmacists and doctors to fully explore the resources already at hand and available for any future nuclear emergency that might befall their locale. You might could be responsible for saving many in your community from future thyroid cancer by simply bringing this to the attention of your local officials, science teachers, pharmacists and doctors!

There are two kinds of Potassium Iodide (KI) solutions that can be made. Saturated and anything less than saturated.

With a saturated Potassium Iodide (KI) solution you are adding a little more Potassium Iodide (KI) to a fixed amount of water until some of the crystals or granules will not dissolve. They will be visible at the bottom of the solution, even after vigorous mixing. The solution is now considered saturated when it won't take up and dissolve any more Potassium Iodide (KI)....

as an fyi..

AAIP

I-Man said...

When Jah Lion roar, di whole jungle feel it...

RAAAAAAAAAAAA.

Anonymous said...

Same with the stupid little hospital mask.
...

foghorn,

that is interesting, isn't it?

peep lay one of those things on, and then, presto-chango, they're Invincible..

it's a 'head-shaker'..


AAIP

Anonymous said...

Crude Oil 99.40 +1.42 +1.45
Natural Gas 4.018 +0.006 +0.15
Corn 616.50 -19.50 -3.07
Soybeans 1287 +17 +1.33
30yr Bond 122.68750 +1.37500 +1.13
10yr Note 121.250000 +0.906250 +0.75
NY Gold 1397.3 +4.5 +0.32
NY Silver 34.215 +0.098 +0.29
Emini S&P 1253.25 -22.00 -1.72
Emini Nasdaq 2206.25 -38.75 -1.73
Emini Dow 11561 -228 -1.93
http://www.ino.com/

CRB Index
338.17
+0.03 +0.01%
US Dollar
76.636
+0.308 +0.40%

much 'upping 'n downing' today..4 sure..

AAIP

Anonymous said...

I mean, they had the ultimate excuse to commandeer one,
"Hey, this is a fucking nuclear crisis, give it up."

foghorn

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicReleases/ppi.htm

"
Big Picture
•Commodity prices have strengthened over the last few months as global economies have entered an accelerating recovery period. U.S. producers are going to bare most of the brunt of the price increases as the consumers ability to take-on higher prices remains constrained by weak income growth."

...Needless to say, this is a very different evaluation of the PPI than Briefing.com had just one month ago...more realism I would say..

Anonymous said...

Why did that comment get nuked?

foghorn

Anonymous said...

Higher prices for food are about to get worse
2 minutes ago

(AP:WASHINGTON) Americans are noticing higher prices at the grocery store, and it's about to get worse.

Food prices at the wholesale level rose last month by the most in 36 years. Cold weather accounted for most of it, forcing stores and restaurants to pay more for green peppers, lettuce and other vegetables, but meat and dairy prices surged, too.

The big questions are how long food prices will keep rising and how high they'll go.

The impact is already visible. Wendy's, paying higher prices for tomatoes, now puts them on hamburgers only by request. Starbucks and Dunkin' Donuts have raised prices because they pay more for coffee beans. Supermarkets warn customers that produce may be of lower quality, or limited.

"It has thrown the whole industry into a tizzy," says Dan Bates, director of merchandising for the produce division of grocery chain Supervalu Inc....
http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=68977072798500

Anonymous said...

Gee, it looks like the era of the 100% mark-up may be grinding to a close.
What a bitch.

foghorn

72bat said...

as i understood it from my japanese business associates, the "stupid little hospital mask" is worn by those who have colds and their purpose is to reduce the spread of germ-laden aerosols from the infected

Anonymous said...

ding, ding, ding, ding-

72b gets the gold medal and the chicken dinner- I saw that all over China- people wearing masks at places of business and out and around so as not to spread their cold germs

but- it seems odd that that so many with colds are working around the radiation areas? My guess is people are donning them as some form of protection- how meager it may be

Bill Gross said...

Pleassssseeeeee let me have a mulligan on the bond thingy....I won't open my trap this time.

Anonymous said...

Jesse James had a better solution than the stupid masks.
Besides that, he looked cool, not dorkish.

foghorn

Anonymous said...

"In Ibaraki prefecture, just south of Fukushima, officials said radiation levels were about 300 times normal levels by late morning. It would take three years of constant exposure to these higher levels to raise a person's risk of cancer."

Anonymous said...

No problemo, the officials said,
whilst safely ensconced in a radioactive-proof bunker, far, far away.

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