Oh no! There Goes Tokyo!
Copper (weekly info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=up
high= 4.596
rev= 4.176; mid= 4.386
Last weeks candle looked like there was some indecision. This week cleared it up. It's weak as it's below the weekly 3LB mid. The question is whether there will be a reversal this week. If there is then that's the canary in the coal mine for stocks.
90 Day UST (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
low= 0.090
rev= 0.170; mid= 0.130
Weekly 3LB is finally making a confirming low. Looking at the daily chart yesterdays dive is further indication that the Fed will not touch rates. So QE2 will end and the Fed will keep ZIRP going.
Bear Analyst versus Ten Bullish Analysts...
312 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 312 of 312 Newer› Newest»Weird ass market. Miners, tech, ags all crazy valuations, many dividend stocks are going for a song. Beautiful value stocks got left outside in the rain while traders make out with growth skanks.
Bloomberg TV
Aflac CEO Dan Amos is on BTV now. 75-80% of Aflac's revenue is from Japan. Tune in now: http://bloom.bg/dXfFPk
longs should have sold at 1301, imo
It aint no fun if it dont "look" bullish...
was just watching that Ip Man clip.. had to stop. Hope the bear wins in the end : )
here we are at 1301 again..
FAZ could be making inv h&s on 30 min so watchout bulls !!
bigger picture this looks more and more like a diamond that started to develop Feb. 7.
if that is correct it also implies mid 1200's.
We are inclined to think that 1275 holds and we endure a sideways congestion in the 1275-1325 range. But we also think that the top is now in and that the bottom is in for DXY.
Made so many mistakes these last two weeks, but not much damage.
well, i am first and foremost all about FUN!
We like it when you are having fun....
;-)
SPX HOD was 1301.69 -- exactly what stockcharts.com says is the 50 dma
why is it that i always have 69 twitters to catch up on?
From the BBC:
1703: The death toll from the earthquake and tsunami is expected to exceed 1,000, Kyodo adds.
1659: Kyodo also reports that the death toll from the earthquake has been revised down by police from 137 to 133. Another 531 people are missing.
1658: Japanese defence ministry officials tell the Kyodo news agency that 1,800 homes in Fukushima prefecture have been destroyed.
Jennifer, LOL and checking our time stamps..
Are you sure it's not 70?
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Government-job-openings-apf-1283756506.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Governments advertised far fewer jobs in January, offering the latest sign that cuts at the state and local level could slow hiring this year.
There were 2.76 million job openings at the end of January, the Labor Department said Friday. That's down by 161,000, or 5.5 percent, from December's revised total.
@AFIA
Japan story is going to be all about yen repatriation right now. Once it reaches its peak, they will almost certainly print and then the Nikkei will be a buy. We are talking a hard look at a few names
---
Here's what happened after the 1994 Kobe Quake...(not saying or commenting on anything - just providing a chart)...
http://dawnwires.com/investment-news/financial-impact-of-japan-tsunami-based-on-past-events/
fundmyfund Mark H
$$ Fed's Dudley elicits laughter when tells crowd not to worry about inflation in food prices, b/c iPad price offsets it http://is.gd/ndv0K8
the fed is so far from creating price stability that my mouth is agape : )
Here We Go Again…
By Jamie Coleman || March 11, 2011 at 17:17 GMT
Brazil is considering fresh measures to stem the rise of the real, Bloomberg reports.
A time requirement on foreign investment is one consideration, the wires reports.
They already intervene on a daily basis and have put foreign investment taxes in place…
So much for open, flexible markets…
I for one always prefer open and flexible
in other news.. son does not have mono based on second blood test.. he has a virus that is a mask of a mask of mono.. he is still for sale tho!
Bill Gross on NPR (on dumping US Treasuries)http://www.npr.org/player/v2/mediaPlayer.html?action=1&t=1&islist=false&id=134432829&m=134433161
"call me ahab said...
I for one always prefer open and flexible"
[b]I lube that too![/b]
ipads-
w/ a little mayo on rye . . .pretty damn tasty
Well, I dont want to be long... but gotta take what they give I guess.
zerohedge
Market up on earthquake, tsunami, radiation leak, violent revolutions, $100 oil, and imploding europe. Fat tails insurance anyone?
Karen -- great news on the mono!
dealbreaker
Dennis Gartman Just Wants To Point Out That He Sooooo Called This Earthquake http://bit.ly/hSX0Ye
Chet is holding his breath!! Yahoo! Finance
Obama about to speak Live from The White House http://1.usa.gov/ggdOKs
chalk one up for Gartman
wow on gold and silver..
@karen (12:30)
Stop the presses!
TPOTUS 'Teleprompter of the United States'
is about to address his suck ups... and get to some real ass kickin'
ugh.. because look at the dollar (or UUP)
Ben from our buddy Scott Bleier
$$ Looks like the market discounted the bad news of the earthquake/tsunami yesterday...
Danny ! http://mrtopstep.com/2011/03/11/danny-riley-talks-crude-oil-sp-500-and-march-expiration-market-stats/
oh dear.. he says it's all about POMO..
Obama is talented-
simultaneously (and at the same time)
he will talk AND say nothing
drum roll . . .
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/11/ecuador-petroecuador-oil-idUSBOG00258120110311
good one: John Kicklighter
Don't be so quick to turn bullish on equities and bearish the dollar with this correction. Take a look at the DAX. http://twitpic.com/48icnu
So I guess Gartman just KNEW because...
"The FAULT LINE where the earthquake happened went from bottom left to top right"
@karen
There IS NO POMO today...
Mazda Motor Corp. has an itsy-bitsy problem, and it's recalling 65,000 cars to fix it.
Spider nests in tiny rubber hoses linked to fuel tank systems could cause pressurization and ventilation problems in certain cars, according to the Japanese automaker.
In a worst-case scenario, such clogs could lead to fuel leaks and fires. But the problem hasn't resulted in any serious incidents so far, the company said, and all technicians fixing the hoses have escaped unbitten.
After dealers around the country found 20 cases of the arachnid infestation, the company pulled back 65,000 Mazda6 cars from the 2009 and 2010 model years in the U.S., Canada and Mexico.
Mazda identified the culprit as the yellow sac spider, or Cheiracanthium inclusum. The pale, mildly venomous creatures lay their eggs in silk-wrapped bunches — usually in vegetation.
But why they're choosing Mazdas instead of, say, Porsche Spyders, is a mystery. As is the fact that only the 4-cylinder Mazda6 cars are playing host.
"We really don't know how they're getting in," said Jeremy Barnes, a spokesman for Mazda North American Operations. "I'd think it would be pretty tricky, but spiders are resourceful."
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-mazda-spider-20110304,0,6199399.story
CV.. he meant future POMO.. next week's POMO.. I KNOW THERE IS NO POMO TODAY.. THAT'S WHY WE ARE RED.. on no, wait a minute, LOL..
...wow on gold and silver..
...ugh.. because look at the dollar (or UUP)
---
Who wants to school CV right now about BUCKY being the 'risk off trade'...?
@karen (12:47)
let's all say it together...
"THE ECONOMY" - ror
"$$ Looks like the market discounted the bad news of the earthquake/tsunami yesterday..."
thats funny...
I might suggest he learn to do more research, go back and look at a chart of India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, and Thailand the year of the big Tsunami.
I dont like this one bit...
Feels like they could drop it any second.
TLT chart ever so bullish.. imo and trend is up ! TBT has opposite chart.. H&S the works.. this will be very interesting.
market and the 50 ema about to meet again (S&P)
still, SPY can go a little higher to touch the bottom of the diamond pattern, might bounce again on the 50 line iow....
well- because of all my dinking around this morning- I missed my $13.93 entry on F-
look at that bad boy now
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=F:US
"Made so many mistakes these last two weeks, but not much damage"
I didn't make any money-losing mistakes. I missed some good entry points, but being in cash is never a mistake (unless you are in Zimbabwe).
I think that patience is the name of the game this year. I wanted to pick up some long bonds the morning of the 30-year auction, but the action the previous day pushed prices above my buy threshold and I ended up staying in cash. If prices get where I like them, I go long for a bit. If they stay above my comfort level, then I stay in cash.
Staying in cash is quite comfortable when unemployment is this high. I am not worried about inflation.
sorry, the market has me giddy today.. i can't type.. anyway.. JJC trend down.. making no gains on yesterday's bounce.. i'll call it a stall..
Some days you are the bug, some days you are the windshield.
@karen @all
Look peeps... GET THIS THOUGHT THRU YOUR DOMES (then trade accordingly)...
THE DOLLAR ISN'T MONEY ANYMORE... GOLD IS MONEY (or SILVER by default)...
The DOLLAR (in this respect), has actually become "the commodity"...
This argument will continue to be circular if people don't define what the consider as sound money.
If you consider the dollar to be the basis, then we will have hyperinflation as more and more dollars (debt money) are printed or keyboarded into existence...
If you consider gold/other hard commodities to be the basis, then we are in fact having deflation and will continue to do so... (so the DEFLATIONISTS, perplexed by the market moves, need to value the prices vs. gold to be able to really SEE the deflation at work)
Everything is relative to what the basis of "money" is. There WILL BE hyperinflation with respect to the dollar as people lose faith in it. This DOES NOT MEAN that the deflationary collapse is responsible for this printing in the first place. If you price the banking sector relative to hard commodities, there is no denying that we are experiencing deflation.
The DOLLAR is the commodity now... GOLD is the currency...
CNBC
Japan says pressure rising at nuclear reactor after cooling system failure- AP
Kgoradio KGO Radio
Crescent City OES: All docks are gone after first surge, 35 boats crushed, water starting to fill harbor parking lot.
13 minutes ago
kgoradio KGO Radio
Surfers waiting in the water for tsunami waves: http://bit.ly/f60lFp
If the dollar isnt money, then what am I using to buy food at costco later today?
Cmon man...
check out these folks surfing in Tokyo- wild!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2_E9ebt1a_s
@I-Man
As I said... It's a circular argument...
You're TRANSACTING with dollars ('bartering' with them - so to speak to exchange for goods)...
But all you need to do (since 1999/2000 really), is look at assets priced in gold - how much that asset purchase; whether it had been a stock, or whatever, is worth now vs. GOLD
More important would be to actually plot out the trendline year after year to spot the trend...
is the market going nowhere fast or is it just me? : )
extremely fast.
Kicked me in the ass! Just got back from Home Depot, bought a box of sheetrock screws... $18 bucks! Next time I need more of these, I'm going down the block to a empty house and taking them out of the wall!
I know... I am only trying to make a point.
When they stop accepting dollars as payment, and people are paying for $10 gas with gold and silver, then the dollar will cease to be money.
Until then, it is money, and to deny that is to deny reality.
What is the value of a dollar worth, in relative terms? Different discussion and depends on what you are comparing it to.
It will never be backed by gold, the whole idea of backing a currency with a limited natural resource that gets dug out of the ground is just retarded.
The dollar will be swapped some time in the next ten years for a new global currency, and that will be worth whatever "they" tell us its worth.
Thats when the real shit storm begins.
Until then, I will enjoy the "temporary" safe and soundness of the USD... and continue to buy shit with it, and get paid in it.
When they stop accepting dollars at costco is the day I just hunt elk, blacktail, and salmon, trout, and steelhead all day... tend to my gardens, and gather nuts, mushrooms, edible plants and berries.
Sounds a lot better than what I do now, actually.
:)
here you go Karen, I know you're a fan:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s7XaHF36CfM
@I-Man
An 'example' of what you're using to buy food at costco later on today would be to compare it to the NUMEROUS examples (that we talked about on this blog last year) where local towns had come up with their own currency...
Do you call THAT money?
Sure - because you could have used it at the local bar or hardware store...
But I doubt you could have bought any stocks or futures contracts with it...
I'm talking about a SHIFTING of large scale asset values here (not micro purchases)...
Gold is returning to its status of MONEY right before your eyes...
I haven't done this, but my HUNCH is that if you looked at the price of gold vs. the price of crude over the last decade (you'd see a much 'smoother' price correlation against DOLLAR versus crude)...
I might have o go look that up (then reference it to geo-politics)...
CV,
the sound money comment is really rubbish
money is whatever we want it to be
I'm a little girl, I want lip gloss and some eye shadow but all I have is a barbie doll to trade my playmate for her make-up....barbie doll is my sound money.
gold is no more sound money than a sea shell
I do know that I have a +25 tick short on right now, and I'll be taking those profits in dollars, thank ya much.
zerohedge
Warning of imminent earthquake in Chiba, Ibaraki
I bought some QID and SDS- 53.29 and $21.84 respectively-
will play it to close- unless they pop substantially before then-
all the while trying my best to maintain the I-Man zen calmness
Reuters Top News
FLASH: Japan's trade minister says a radiation leak could take place at the Fukushima nuclear plant: report
@I-Man
It will never be backed by gold, the whole idea of backing a currency with a limited natural resource that gets dug out of the ground is just retarded
A 'telling' statement from you (because it goes flatly against 5,000 years of recorded history)...
I'll take the other side of that argument... (and say that at some point, circumstances will dictate that humanity is returned to that standard...)
We are planning a fund that will invest completely in little girl's tears. It's all supply and demand.
@ben22
...based on your (1:16), my comments apply to you as well...
I'm squarely on the other side of both of your arguments...
How do you expand your money supply in the event that gold resources are depleted, if your currency is backed by gold. (Or any fixed supply natural resource.)
CV,
I think its probably clear to everyone here what side you are on at this point in time.
no doubt, gold has been used as money off and on for 5,000 years, there's no real denying that.
what I personally find telling is your apparent certainty that it is what will be used next and that in fact despite dollars still being used for nearly 90% of all global transactions that you think this is just right around the corner.
I have no confidence at all that I know what will happen with money over the next 15-20 years.
How are you so confident?
Not to be the "DSS MOTHER HEN" here... But both of you are 30 years old...
So NEITHER of you has ever lived in a world where all the worlds currencies didn't FLOAT...
I have a different perspective because my life (and perception to money) has passed from a STANDARD to a FLOAT...
From that perspective, I've sen a lot more destruction which has occured in a floating environment...
Just saying...
tsnnami hit Santa Cruz, CA, many boats damaged.
Karen, you might want to go upstairs
seriously, is everyone just trading the 50?
WTF....
If there is a leak in Japan then what sections of Japan will be off limits? Will it include their financial districts? Major docks? What about food that's grown or caught?
Every gold standard that has ever existed has failed. Every single one.
"ben22 said...
seriously, is everyone just trading the 50?
WTF...."
not me, I trade the 18's... hehe
gentlemens, gentlemens-
all this esoteric banter . . .
personally I will take dollars-
but in the future- after fiat has flamed out- I'll guess I will take silver or gold-
or paper based on such
lol CV,
not to be the same Ben that can't stand DSS but that's total bullshit
You know how many people proved something to me by saying; I'm older than you
I'll take that comment to heart in certain circumstances, in this case, you yourself just got done saying golds history is one of 5,000 + years, so lets not go pretending you have any more insight because you've been around for 45or 50 and not only 30.
maybe what you say is correct, I'm just wondering why over the last two months your confidence turned into certainty on this issue.
How do you expand your money supply in the event that gold resources are depleted, if your currency is backed by gold.
That's another 'telling' argument...
I apologize for answering a question with a question... but...
Who's to say that EXPANDING THE MONEY SUPPLY is what's in the best interest of humanity?
I'd argue that a FLOATING & EXPANDING DEBT/MONEY SUPPLY leads to malinvestment & "boom bust cycles"
Worse...
Taken to the extremes, it makes the aquisition of money the "end game" (which naturally accelerates resource depletion & contamination)...
But I suppose on a philosophical level it could be argued a GOOD thing...
Why?
Because the sooner we human parasites "do ourselves in" and annihilate one another, the sooner THE EARTH can be rid of the disease...
Welcome CV, finally
Because the sooner we human parasites "do ourselves in" and annihilate one another, the sooner THE EARTH can be rid of the disease...
CV,
In all seriousness, what are you really forecasting here?
For instance, w/this:
"Who's to say that EXPANDING THE MONEY SUPPLY is what's in the best interest of humanity?"
so in this future of yours where we are all trading gold and silver as money there is a governing body that determines what is in the best interest of humanity and they do things with money to help that along?
Where in the 5,000 years of golds history was that happening, I wasn't aware of that utopia.
Especially if we are all just parasites, shouldn't we decide to do bad things with the money? Which is it?
you are losing me here.....
and before people start telling us to stop fighting, I'm not fighting, I'm just trying to understand what you are saying.
@ben22
maybe what you say is correct, I'm just wondering why over the last two months your confidence turned into certainty on this issue
Your POV on me is incorrect... I haven't turned to "certainty" on the issue...
That's just where I'm PLACING MY BETS (based on my observations and experience in life)...
And you were also wrong to take to heart the suggestion of AGE... That's NOT a "pass/fail" subject...
All I was trying to say is that my COLOR on the subject is that way because I have actually LIVED IN & straddled both eras...
So while that experience may amount to ZERO, that is a possible point of differentiation in our respective POV's...
Agent Smith had a few things to say regarding humans as a disease:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IM1-DQ2Wo_w
I'm 31, asshole.
:)
Anon is correct, not once in the history of humanity has a currency backed by gold or silver worked...
You cant "fix" a money supply, it needs to be cyclical, just like everything else in this Universe.
It is the desire to have "fixed"... "certainty"... etc that gets us in so much deep shit all the time.
CV
Thanks for Kobe 1994 post. I think it could take a few weeks for JPY to settle as the damage is assessed, so a 10-20% drop is not out of the question, at which point there are going to be some great deals. Many stocks trade at book in Japan after the years of selling.
CV,
my bad then, but when you start telling people that what they should be doing is getting out of all paper everything and you state at 12:58 in capital letters that the dollar isn't money anymore, then I took that as certainty, or damn near close to it.
I see now what you are doing/saying.
TRIN 0.59 - buy stocks
PC Ratio 1.131 - tail risk, hedging
AUDJPY, EURJPY - sell
Below weekly 3LB mid - near term sentiment now bearish
Above monthly 3LB mid - long term sentiment still bullish
AR, i am still confused..
so in this future of yours where we are all trading gold and silver as money there is a governing body that determines what is in the best interest of humanity and they do things with money to help that along?
I don't see how hard it it to grasp the concept... I NEVER stated that we'd all be walking around with Roman denariuses clanging around in our pockets (though with the boobs in charge now - it might just come to that)...
The idea stems from realizing PROBABLY one of the two following outcomes:
1. A world where governments issue their own currencies (not central banks)... In which case, the EXCHANGE rate amongst trades BETWEEN nations would be based on the value of GOLD... IOW - A nation could print all the fiat it wanted within its borders, but when it came to buying materials or finished products from others, there would be a STANDARD... Want a BMW from Germany? exchange some gold bars because your CLOWNBUX don't help them in their trades with the Chinese...
OR
2. An "international monetary system"... OK... But WHAT is that system going to be based on? How will it be determined?
You're thinking dollar? OK... But how far off are we to reaching that kind of agreement? meanwhile the Bernank gets to print all the CLOWNBUX he wants? What if in the process he manages to destroy all faith in its value? Then what do you base it on? The Yuan? Don't make me laugh... They're printing yuan debt as fast as Benny Bucks is printing...
These are the kind of points worth thinking about...
Read page 10 of this PDF and tell me your thoughts:
http://www.martinarmstrong.org/files/Show%20Me%20The%20Money%2010-15-2010.pdf
Earthquake of 8.9 magnitude on the Richter scale that shook Japan may have moved nearly 10 centimeters the axis of rotation of the Earth.
zerohedge
Japan Earthquake Early Warning Center says magnitude 6 quake occurring right now
FWIW-
I do like silver coinage- silver coins have nice crisp authentic ring to them-
if we keep going down the road we are- everyone will be carrying around the equivalent of plastic poker chips-
of course maybe that is the equivalent of a debit card
any chance we can start a new thread? it's a real bother for me to keep getting over to the newer posts.. of course, i can just stop posting for the rest of the day and then I won't get thrown back to the first page : )
I-Man said...
How do you expand your money supply in the event that gold resources are depleted, if your currency is backed by gold. (Or any fixed supply natural resource.)
~~~
yes, of course, I'd like to hear "Why?" 'we need' an 'expending money supply'...
some should 'remember' that Prices can go down, and/or 'denominators' can be divided...
also, it may help them to understand that the 'Founding Fathers' had envisioned 'milles' to go along w/ 'cents'...
AAIP
Anon is correct, not once in the history of humanity has a currency backed by gold or silver worked
Well to that... CV says that FIAT has an equally terrible history...
And your point towards "cyclicality" ought then to be applied here...
In what way?
Well... If NEITHER backed nor FIAT work... And they have taken turns thru the ages... Then I suppose BACKED is due up at the plate next...
Or is my "logic" flawed there as well?
CV,
totally missing the point of what I'm saying there
the point was, you can pick whomever you like to issue currency, no matter though, they aren't going to to do what's "best for humanity" that's a total joke, whatever form money exists in there will be people that attempt to control it and use it to take from others, gold, barbie dolls, apple seeds, it doesn't matter.
also, I never said or implied that the IMF would run a global currency based on dollars, sorry, not even close to anything I've ever said, a global currency wouldn't be based on any current currency, that's whole point, as I already said, money is whatever we want it to be, we've been making up what "money" is for 5,000 years, you said so yourself.
if the diamond is correct the the SPY can go all the way up to 131 but not really higher....maybe we'll close right on it.
AAIP...
Read Page 10 of the PDF and get back to me.
Good partisan....
Well... If NEITHER backed nor FIAT work... And they have taken turns thru the ages... Then I suppose BACKED is due up at the plate next...
The problem isnt logic, it is GOVERNMENT.
If the leaders are clueless, and dont understand the basic principles of capitalism and/or global trade, economics, HISTORY, whatever...
Then none of it will work, regardless of logic.
when the Bernank said there wasn't enough gold to cover our monetary base-
what the hell does that even mean? Can't you make the denominations fit the amount of gold-
not the other way around?
k -
haven't tried this myself, but it might work...
open two t-a tabs in your browser, one to page one for posting, one to page two for reading
Morning Corner (pt. 2) is up ;-)
someone check out gld on a weekly.. nothing to be bullish about there..
as I already said, money is whatever we want it to be, we've been making up what "money" is for 5,000 years, you said so yourself
EXACTLY - so we finally agree...
And to that point I add... Since we can "make up" our money whenever we damn well please... That the NEXT BOUT of us "making up" our money WON'T be the dollar, but instead it will be a currency backed on gold or silver...
Maybe I'm totally wrong...
But I'm the TRADITIONAL type (that believes that humans ALWAYS tend to go back to things that were trusted in the past - before all the new batch of hotshots came along and told them they were FOS for thinking that way and having their feet cemented into the ground)...
What I REALLY think we need is to populate the Earth with another 6 billion people (hell, let's just QUADRUPLE that and take us up to 30 billion)...
all living like 'Westerners' (driving Chevy Volts, twittering all day, and having government jobs with pensions that pay them a million DOLLARS a year because we're good at expanding out money supply)...
I'm sure the Earth wouldn't mind... Plenty of air to breathe, water to drink, and food to eat...
...what the hell does that even mean? Can't you make the denominations fit the amount of gold-...
ahab,
of course..his 'statement' is, just, more unadulterated B*******..
fed to the M*****, along with pap, like: "an Elastic money supply is necessary for a healthy, growing Economy..", to retard their Faculties, sufficiently, so they remain under the Debt Yoke..
AAIP
p.s. (I'll second the motion that this thread way too F***** long, and unwieldy, thereby..)
new thread up
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