Morning Corner 3.10.11

EWZ Brazil ETF (weekly info)
WEEKLY CONFIRMATION new high 75.27
trend=no
direction=up (2 bars)
high= 75.27
rev= 71.75; mid= 73.51


It's been holding the lower trend line and staying above the weekly 3LB mid throughout the MENA troubles. Is this one of the new safe havens?



CYB China ETF (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=down (2 bars)
low= 25.14
rev= 25.81; mid= 25.48


Saviors of the world economy? As you can see it has been stuck in a very tight trading range since Dec 2010. It has yet to test its weekly 3LB mid since reversing down in Nov 2010. I'd watch this with binoculars.



Nikkei (weekly info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
low= 10526.76
rev= 10842.80; mid= 10566.21


Japan is not doing too well either. Currently it is below its weekly 3LB mid and is also making a confirming low on the weekly chart. BANZAI!!!



Bear: "You want a piece of me? Come get some!"

268 comments:

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CV said...

@ben22

From last night... just "nitpicking"

Kentucky last year... John Wall

Oden (2007) = Oden was a frosh, but not a point guard...

The reason I single out point guards is because their ROLE is basically field general (getting plays started, leading the offense, and trying to avoid getting into positions to either get off a good shot, and/or not turn the ball over)...

Talent notwithstanding, you need experience at that position in the NCAA, not some talented kid out of high school (sooner or later, they're likely to get exposed by some team that's well coached and can match team unity vs. raw talent...

In the NBA - Go ask the Miami Heat :-)

AmenRa said...

Futures slowing inching higher...

CV said...

FUNNIEST THING I EVER READ...

BEST TRUE LAWYER STORY OF THE YEAR, DECADE, AND POSSIBLY THE CENTURY

This took place in Charlotte, North Carolina . A lawyer purchased a box of very rare and expensive cigars, then insured them against, among other things, fire.

Within a month, having smoked his entire stockpile of these great cigars, the lawyer filed a claim against the insurance company.

In his claim, the lawyer stated the cigars were lost 'in a series of small fires.' The insurance company refused to pay, citing the obvious reason, that the man had consumed the cigars in the normal fashion.

The lawyer sued - and WON! (Stay with me.)

Delivering the ruling, the judge agreed with the insurance company that the claim was frivolous. The judge stated nevertheless, that the lawyer held a policy from the company, in which it had warranted that the cigars were insurable and also guaranteed that it would insure them against fire, without defining what is considered to be unacceptable 'fire' and was obligated to pay the claim.

Rather than endure lengthy and costly appeal process, the insurance company accepted the ruling and paid $15,000 to the lawyer for his loss of the cigars that perished in the 'fires'.

NOW FOR THE BEST PART...

After the lawyer cashed the check, the insurance company had him arrested on 24 counts of ARSON!!!

With his own insurance claim and testimony from the previous case being used against him, the lawyer was convicted of intentionally burning his insured property and was sentenced to 24 months in jail and a $24,000 fine.

This true story won First Place in last year's Criminal Lawyers Award contest.

ONLY IN AMERICA... NO WONDER THE REST OF THE WORLD THINKS WE'RE NUTS

BinT said...

397k

What differentiates a prediction from a guess?

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/42003010

"Currently,oil prices are just as likely to rise as to fall and, consequently, there's a 50 percent chance that recent rises in European inflation are behind us, according to Carl B. Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics.

"Inflation is a sustained, proportionate increase in the prices of all prices and wages in an economy," Weinberg said in a research note Thursday. "If you want to believe that crude oil prices are going to trigger a sustained inflation episode, then the first thing to ponder is whether you believe the current episode is the start of a sustained increase in oil prices."

Anonymous said...

Here is an interesting interview on the future of commerce (the death of big box stores, scalability and a return to your grandparent's sensibilities). Laugh out loud funny though when the guest mentions Yelp and Mika Brzezinski asks: "What's Yelp"?

http://www.wallstreetoasis.com/blog/vaynerchuk-destroys-morning-joe

karen said...

good morning! loved the story, CV..

that is the reddest/hottest finviz heatmap i've ever seen..

Jennifer said...

I am personally offended that the triangle broke outside of regular trading hours. Reasonable risk management dictated that I could not hold extreme short positions overnight. There. I said it. This sucks.

Anonymous said...

CV,

Mike Conley was what made OSU special the year Oden played, he was PG, and a freshman, that's why I brought them up. Oden was a huge factor, but Conley ran that show, and he played lights out. Like I said though, in general, you want a guy that's been around at the point, look at most of the teams that have won over the last two decades and you are going to find that.

In other news, GM CFO is out.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicReleases/trade.htm


Big Picture

•The trade deficit can be thought of as a Catch-22 situation for the US economy. A drop in the deficit has resulted from import demand declining at a faster rate than the decline in export demand. The result was an increase in GDP growth without any actual increase in output. The recent rise in the deficit was the result of both exports and imports growing, but with imports outpacing exports. We are now experiencing an increase in output, but GDP is negatively affected. The trade-off of more production for negative GDP growth is better than the reverse and we'll take the increasing deficit as a signal of a stronger economy.

Anonymous said...

interesting little chart-

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=USDEUR=X+Interactive#chart2:symbol=usdeur=x;range=

Anonymous said...

Jennifer,

9:02

those are reasons I turned to wave analysis. In triangle patterns like the one we have now, traditional TA just can't 'get er done'


btw folks, I wrote andy yesterday, I look at wave counts from maybe two dozen people almost daily and most are orthodox wave counters. Every single one of them but Andy and Neely had this triangle breaking up and are on the same count, Andy and Neely have slightly different counts but with the same general large picture view.

Go back and look at Andy's charts from maybe two updates ago where he almost nailed the top of his wave "Y" to the point, same count he's been using a while now.

Props AT.

karen said...

Jennifer, JBTFD.

Anonymous said...

CV,

re: Miami Heat

I don't know about you but I'm loving every second of that team losing. Every second.

re: Experience

Remember when Chris Weber called a timeout against my Heels, a timeout that he didn't have? Fab Five were great, but a senior leader might be say 'we don't have any timeouts' in the huddle before that play.

karen said...

spx looks to break 1300 on the open.. buy 1296-1298?

Anonymous said...

Forex & Bonds Last Change Change %
EUR/USD 1.3817 -0.0088 -0.63%
USD/JPY 83.04 +0.28 +0.34%
GBP/USD 1.6084 -0.0118 -0.73%
5-Year Treasury 2.127 -0.02 -0.93%
10-Year Treasury 3.454 -0.015 -0.43%
30-Year Treasury 4.598 -0.001 -0.02%
http://finviz.com

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ZN

t-note.com back en estilio~!
+2.09 (points, in Price)

AAIP

karen said...

NFLX Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) Reiterated Buy and $275 target at BofA/ML.

Wells Fargo CEO: writing down loans will hurt the U.S. deficit because Fannie and Freddie will lose more money

karen said...

zerohedge
*GM'S LIDDELL SAYS LEAVING BECAUSE HE ACHIEVED WHAT HE WANTED: such as taking stock price to sub-IPO level

karen said...

zerohedge
Here We Go: Goldman Says "News Reinforces Our Sense Of Downside Risk To Q1 Growth" http://is.gd/Tf5U0j

Anonymous said...

jenny-

printed off Chuck Cohen's news letter- going to give a read and see what he knows

Anonymous said...

fwiw,

if AT's count is correct, and I'm thinking there is a very high probability that it is

don't buy the dip......

Anonymous said...

not yet anyway.....but there would be one more up to be long

bruce could ride UPRO on it

Anonymous said...

MackieFear,

I'm thinking this: don't buy the dip......

is a good idea..

this, too: "...those are reasons I turned to wave analysis. In triangle patterns like the one we have now, traditional TA just can't 'get er done'


btw folks, I wrote andy yesterday, I look at wave counts from maybe two dozen people almost daily and most are orthodox wave counters. Every single one of them but Andy and Neely had this triangle breaking up and are on the same count, Andy and Neely have slightly different counts but with the same general large picture view.

Go back and look at Andy's charts from maybe two updates ago where he almost nailed the top of his wave "Y" to the point, same count he's been using a while now..."

esp.: "...those are reasons I turned to wave analysis. In triangle patterns like the one we have now, traditional TA just can't 'get er done' .."

AAIP

IOW, 'Equities' ain't the Dip to B Buyin'..

CV said...

"I am personally offended that the triangle broke outside of regular trading hours. Reasonable risk management dictated that I could not hold extreme short positions overnight. There. I said it. This sucks.

---

I am shocked SHOCKED to find out that there may be forces that attempt to manipulate free markets...

karen said...

upro at 76.30 right now.. maybe the 50 ema will hold at 75ish.

188 said...

"karen said...
spx looks to break 1300 on the open.. buy 1296-1298?"


mmmmm... 1296, might be worth a couple dozen sso calls @ this price? Last week, if I remember correctly 1305 was the 18.5 number where bears would control, maybe we try to close above this, they can try?

Anonymous said...

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=UPRO

seems like a 'Day of Reckoning' is, just, ahead for our beloved UPRO..

ibid.

Anonymous said...

oops, last nights beer is still in my fingers...

18

AmenRa said...

Wow. TICKS hit -1030 in the opening seconds.

CV said...

according to the US, the January trade deficit with China was $23.3 billion. According to China, the trade surplus with the US in January was $13.6. Just 100% off between two departments of truth.

Jennifer said...

DE -- whoops! Check out the daily chart.

Anonymous said...

a few sellers out there it appears

CV said...

Maybe it's time to ask yourself...

WWAJCD - What would Abbey Joseph Cohen Do? - ror

Anonymous said...

DE, CAT, CMI, et al.

all those 'stocks' have been priced 'to perfection'...

18x E on DE?

YGBFKM~

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=DE&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

AAIP

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Please release me, let me go
For I don't lube you anymore...


...appropriate for today's market..

CV said...

I lube the smell of napalm in the morning...

CV said...

make LUBE not war!

CV said...

Dimon, Pandit, Blankfein, Ackermann Join Kremlin Advisory Board

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-10/dimon-pandit-blankfein-ackermann-join-kremlin-advisory-board.html

You can't make this shizz up!

Anonymous said...

"Cold Steel" might, not, exactly, capture this..

Short Float 24.60%

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=GMCR

Real Time 56.72 13.08 (29.97%) 10:03AM EST

ibid.

Anonymous said...

just sold some DXD for a nice little gain

Bruce in Tennessee said...

CV:

A lot of bad news today. Your reference to Apocalypse Now may actually be spot on...

AmenRa said...

Come get some!

spoonman said...

gotta think there'll be a bounce at 1294 at least

Jennifer said...

I don't see us going below 1294 though...

spoonman said...

as for the overnight, I'm with you J

ben22 said...

bounce should be small, gotta alternate with the big retrace off the intial wave down from 2/18 high.

spoonman said...

Ben,
Care to quantify small? 1304ish says resistance now.

ben22 said...

I'd also note we hit 1294 intraday on 2/24 so if the break of the triangle is really we should go below that before much support is found

Jennifer said...

1296.52 is the 50 day ema on $SPX...that seems to have provided some resistance too.

M E Hoffer said...

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=REE&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

that 'Howler' looks like it's 'one False Tick' away from 'single-digit'-ville..

Market Cap 484.37M

Sales -

52W Range 1.15 - 17.92

AAIP

ben22 said...

spoon, low of the a wave of the 2/18 highs to the top of b using intraday prices was 38 points, if this is the c- wave down then the d wave, which will be back up, shouldn't be more than maybe 5-10 points.

we had a bunch of up gaps that were all closed now in the b wave, I'd expect the d wave to be very weak.

S&P cash I'm talking.

AmenRa said...

ben22

The last 3 days on the SPX made such a nice "triangle". Each day had lower highs and higher lows.

Ben22 said...

of course, 5-10 points if you are I-man is worth trading. I'm more weekly trader style, so for me it's not even worth playing that bounce.

Those April puts probably looking ok right?

Nice job man.

Jennifer said...

Spoonman -- my husband traveled a lot during the fall of '08. I found myself waking up a lot during the night and then I would have to check the futures before I could go back to sleep. Not a good way to live. If I can't sleep at night I've got too much risk on.

Jennifer said...

Ben -- thanks for the reminder about the alternation...I'd forgotten about that.

ben22 said...

Ra,

I agree, was basically textbook

I think on traditional TA there is no measuring rule for symmetrical triangles but I'd have to go back and look.

Anonymous said...

I-Man-

you going to play this for any kind of bounce?

spoonman said...

They are certainly looking good, but I wish I owned more of them. Like J, would have had trouble sleeping though...

karen said...

JJC at HOD.. GS not breaking neckline..

karen said...

just for fun:

http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2011/03/10/which-is-better-owning-bullion-or-gold-stock-etfs/?mod=wsj_share_twitter

karen said...

i simply will not be happy unless GS breaks 160 and below 160. PERIOD.

ben22 said...

I can't speak for the I on what he'll do next, but he had this move nailed as well.

good job I.

AmenRa said...

Put down the champagne weekly 3LB mid. There's still tomorrow.

Andy T said...

Triangle seems to have resolved itself to the downside.

There should be support at 1275...market will like stop there for a little bit...

But that bounce from 1275 should be sold.

karen said...

Breaking News
Sec. of State Clinton to travel to Egypt, Tunisia next week; says she will meet Libyan opposition figures

Anonymous said...

well at least we have a direction- as opposed to yeserday

Jennifer said...

Ameritrade's streaming quotes are all messed up...too many people firing off trades I guess.

karen said...

Buy the rumor, Sell the news ??

Oil Extends Slide Ahead Of Day Of Rage
By Jamie Coleman || March 10, 2011 at 15:29 GMT

I guess the market is coming to the conclusion that there won’t be all that much rage in Saudi Arabia…
We’re down in the $101.40s…
Should be relatively dollar supportive…

Andy T said...

Copper nearing it's critical long term support areas around 4.00....

Big zone there....

karen said...

BAC not breaking down either..

Anonymous said...

just put a limit order for QLD at $85.25 for shits and grins-

we'll see if it fills

Anonymous said...

SLV almost down 4%

I-Man said...

Bounce???

No fucking way, Ahab.

This bitch is DOA.

AmenRa said...

This could be the result of not having PIMCO to buy bonds. The 30yr auction was going to be in trouble. The PDs probably told the Fed that we can't handle the whole auction without them.

I-Man said...

FWIW, I'm looking for 500 pts minimum on the down move in YM today.

I've been waiting for this shit for a long time now...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Debit-card-spending-limit-cnnm-3728211539.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=

Debit card spending limit? Banks consider a $50 cap

...Good things come to those who wait, I...

karen said...

2 Years After the Bottom, the 'Smart Money' Is Selling: "It's a Bit Late to Go Long," Nenner Says http://yhoo.it/hAqZPf

Jennifer said...

I-Man -- you're looking for that whole move TODAY? whoa. I have to bring snack for the other daughter's brownie troop today. Figures. Have to miss the last 1 1/2 hours of the trading day.

I-Man said...

Ahab, you did get the price right for a bounce tho, I'll give you that.

I just dont think it will work this time, this is the 4th time we've used this gann angle off the 2/18 high as support...

4th time means it aint going to hold this time.

Anonymous said...

I-Man-

possibly- but its bounced off the 85 a few times in the last few months . . .

I already sold my short for some $$$$- so just rolling the dice-

500 points would be a huge move- 'bout time- if it happens

I-Man said...

LOL...

Jennifer said...

Just noticed that gold is down $22 bucks.

Jennifer said...

SMN has finally made a higher low and a higher high.

Anonymous said...

US Dollar Advances To New Multi-month High Versus NZ Dollar
2 minutes ago

(RTTNews) - Extending previous session's uptrend, the US dollar advanced further against the NZ dollar during New York morning trading on Thursday. At 10:35 am ET, the greenback climbed to a fresh multi-month high of 0.7325 versus the kiwi, compared to yesterday's close of 0.7368.

For comments and feedback: contact editorial@rttnews.com
http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=31020110828

Crude Oil 101.25 -3.13 -3.00
Natural Gas 3.875 -0.111 -2.78
Corn 685.50 -15.50 -2.21
Soybeans 1340 -9 -0.67
30yr Bond 119.78125 +0.43750 +0.37
10yr Note 118.906250 -0.015625 -0.01
NY Gold 1412.1 -17.5 -1.22
NY Silver 34.940 -1.107 -3.06
Emini S&P 1296.25 -19.25 -1.46
Emini Nasdaq 2279.50 -31.00 -1.34
Emini Dow 11994 -180 -1.48
http://www.ino.com/

ibid.

I-Man said...

I dont need to mention how many times I've been wrong tho, do I?

Yall know how it goes...

But I speak the mind anyhow.

Jennifer said...

Not to worry I-man -- just found that interesting is all :-)

I-Man said...

You get those charts late last night Benji I?

Anonymous said...

I-Man-

nothing wrong with putting it out there

ben22 said...

"BAC not breaking down either.."

Just throwing an idea out there.

If we've got one more leg up to go, the Z wave, that could truncate (end below the 2/18 top) or a double top then maybe...

financials might lead that rally up since they've lagged and are underowned. This could help sucker some more people in at the top

"see, banks are recovering now, yield curve, etc. etc."

I-Man said...

For sure, I got over "pride" back in 2009...

ben22 said...

@I-man,

Yes, I got them, just havent' been able to respond back yet but nice work man. Whiskey in a Can to celebrate.

Anonymous said...

I-Man-

at what level would you say ES rolled over?

I-Man said...

I will add, that for anyone daytrading this tape...

When there are big moves to be had, there will be big players making catching these retracements very difficult.

The pros are pros because they know what other traders are looking for...

karen said...

http://www.businessinsider.com/a-big-beautiful-and-bullish-look-140-year-look-at-equities-vs-commodities-2011-3

I-Man said...

I havent looked at the ES yet today, and with the contract roll, I'm having enough issues watching the June YM vs the March, where most of my work is drawn.

Makes today even more challenging than it should be.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://www.bizjournals.com/washington/morning_call/2011/03/bank-of-america-says-nearly-half-its.html?ana=twt

"
Bank of America Corp. is segregating almost half its 13.9 million mortgages into a “bad” bank comprised of its riskiest and worst-performing “legacy” loans, Bloomberg News reported, citing Terry Laughlin, who is running the new unit.

“We are creating a classic good bank, bad bank structure,” Laughlin told investors at a meeting in New York Tuesday, according to Bloomberg. He was promoted last month to manage the costs of resolving disputes stemming from the company’s 2008 purchase of Countrywide Financial Corp. “We’re going to get after this, we’re going to do it the right way and we’re going to put it to bed in the next 36 months,” he said."

I-Man said...

I really want to be watching crude, but dont have time.

Anonymous said...

I thought you traded the S&P-

so YM then- what would you consider to be the level where you stick the rollover tag on it

Jennifer said...

Anyone concerned about that big hammer candle at the bottom of the move on the SPX hourly chart?

karen said...

ben, banks under owned?? OVER OWNED IN MY OPINION. they've diluted themselves to worthless..

C- 29.1 BILLION sh
BAC- 10.1 BILLION sh
WFC- 5.1 BILLION sh

XOM -5B
IMB- 1B
CAT- 638.8M
AAPL- 921.3M
AMZN- 451M
GOOG-321.5M

Anonymous said...

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=LB&p=d1

our old Friend ..

Lumber, has been soft..

"...China reported an unexpected trade deficit in Feb of $7.3b which was impacted by the Lunar holiday in the beginning part of the month. As trade was pushed into Jan because of the holiday, it’s best to combine Jan and Feb and by doing so, China still reported a deficit of $850mm. Copper is near a 3 month low in response as a moderation in China’s property market is the main priority of central planners. The Yuan also fell to a 2 week low as the trade news may lessen some of the FX political heat on China. The Bank of Korea followed Vietnam and Thailand this week and raised interest rates by 25 bps to 3% but real rates remain firmly negative as Feb CPI in Korea rose 4.5% y/o/y. Moody’s downgraded Spain 1 notch to Aa2 but just puts them in line with S&P ahead of Friday’s EU summit to discuss what to do next with the EFSF. The BoE left rates unchanged as expected notwithstanding elevated inflation levels.."
By Peter Boockvar

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/03/morning-stuff-21/

ibid.

AmenRa said...

Bruce

All of the BoA creditors will have to try and get their money from the "bad bank". Which means they'll get pennies on the dollar. A roundabout way to keep those who want putbacks in check.

ben22 said...

Karen,

the banks are all insolvent, there's some hot fundie analysis for you....ROR.

what I mean is the momo crowd under owns banks and they buy at tops, mutual funds, John E, who is now coming back into the market, pros bought them in March.....of 2009. They need to find some bagholders now.

I-Man said...

The make or break level is right at 11980 for today, (March contract) but since its an angle, that level isnt "fixed" in terms of TIME.

The angle that that level is gotten from is the absolute heartbeat of the downtrend off the 2/18 high.

That is why it is so important.

Anonymous said...

I-Man-

thanks dude

Anonymous said...

gotta roll . . .all be good

I-Man said...

I have a hunch that for the ES, exactly where the "tail" on that hammer is, you will find your "make or break" level for the ES also...

At least it touched off the angle precisely on the March YM...

Anonymous said...

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SB&p=d1

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=CC&p=d1

"Chocolate Index" should be getting some relief..

tho..
this:
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=HSY

looks like it needs a 'breather' ..

ibid.

karen said...

kid has mono.. i'll sell him cheap.. 20 yrs old. comes with a car, and half his college education paid for.. handsome, well-spoken when not mumbling, has no tatts or body piercings.. disclosure, he smokes, drinks and does drugs.

ben22 said...

Is that H&S on NFLX?

left shoulder just before Feb, head Feb 14,

neckline getting retested after initial break

this was too crowded for me to get involved, are other people calling an H&S on there? Minimum target is about 160, the 200 day, iow.

Anonymous said...

and everyone should take the time to watch my video link @ 8:55-

and then project how to play what he is saying-

later

karen said...

haven't used ATR before: gtotoy
$SPX ATR Baby!

ben22 said...

Karen,

He got mono from sharing a 40 ozer didn't he?

Or was it a plastic red cup....

I-Man said...

Hey, where is the LB this week?

Jennifer said...

I bet whiskey in a can is strong enough to kill mono germs. Unfortunately, I've given it up for Lent.

karen said...

zerohedge
NYSE Short Interest Declines Again, Just In Time For Market Drop http://is.gd/OKFeYa

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Karen:

You just have to lube him, anyway...

karen said...

I-Man.. here is a crude chart for you from a BULL's perspective:

http://www.zenpenny.com/?p=1127

I-Man said...

Thx, K!

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/cost-to-insure-greece-spain-portugal-debt-rises-2011-03-10?siteid=bigcharts&dist=bigcharts

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The cost to insure Greek debt rose to a fresh record Thursday and the risk premium seen in holding Spanish and Portuguese debt also rose after Moody's Investors Service downgraded Spain's credit rating. The spread on five-year credit-default swaps, or CDS, for Greek debt widened to a record 1,035 basis points, after closing Wednesday at 1,032 basis points, according to data provider Markit. That means that it costs $1.035 million a year to insure $10 million of Greek bonds against default. The Portuguese CDS spread widened to 504 basis points from 499 in the previous session, reaching back towards the highs around 550 basis points in mid-January. The Spanish CDS spread widened 10 basis points to 259, still far below its highs in November, according to Markit. Ireland's CDS spread slipped slightly to 592 basis points, from 597 Wednesday. Markit has been tracking spreads on Greece since 2001.

CV said...

"Day of Rage" scheduled for Saudi Arabia tomorrow...

So I guess this means they're "ARrABIAtta"... ror

My guess it is all just a convenient "cover" for the market to correct a few days (day after Bill Gross says yes we have no bananas)...

When oil hits $100 (as support), everything will rally back (for a week - until QUAD witching next week - then the fast $$ make their quarters)...

But what will REALLY happen is... After that little bump what we'll end up with is...

Wait for it... Wait for it...

A LARGER TRIANGLE!!!

Only THIS one will extend from the '09 lows, thru the '10 lows (the top will be framed by 2/18 highs to wherever the next bounce peaks out at)...

Beautiful thing is - the APEX of that triangle will terminate right about July...

So that will give Bernankenstein 2 more months to decide to make PRECHTER or FABER the next Nostradamus...

Either way... Two more months are the PERFECT cover to be able to blame the whole thing on some European banks &/or sovereigns going up in the process, getting boots on the ground in Libya, or the Suez Canal shutting down...

What an easy job it must be to just have a hammer in your hand, and have 'excuses' just lining up at your doorstep to act as scapegoats while you just bide your time taking turns whacking the blue mole or the red mole...

karen said...

nenner on commodities.. this cycle has topped..

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/charles-nenner-crude-and-other-commodities-nearing-a-cycle-top-536011.html

Jennifer said...

Several days ago LB said something about whispers of trouble at a big German bank...check out DB's chart.

ben22 said...

Karen,

your H&S or a diamond reversal:

http://99ercharts.blogspot.com/2011/03/copper_10.html

I-Man said...

If I'm reading price action right, selling should commence forcefully any minute...

I-Man said...

I hate it when they do this so close to lunch time tho...

ben22 said...

S&P....little wedgie here....

karen said...

Bank of Spain says Deutsche Bank of Spain needs capital

Bank of Spain says 12 Lenders including 8 Cajas need to raise capital, sees EUR 15.15bln shortfall in country's banks

Andy T said...

JUst intraday trading basis here...CL looks like it might want to dip one more time near 100.15, but that level looks like support. Would expect a decent bounce heading into the weekend. People probably don't want to go home real short on Friday afternoon.

karen said...

Jeff Cooper: Friday's Weekly Close Looms Large http://mvil.me/eSc2QB

karen said...

zerohedge
US Fed says household debt climbed 3.4% in Q4 to USD 56.8trl

CV said...

@karen (12:02)

Peeps putting the groceries and gasoline on the plastic I can see...

CV said...

At least when the plastic is no longer of use to buy anything, the Chinese have figured out a way to make rice out of it...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

From ZH:

" The outcome will happen regardless of whether they try to inflate their way out of debt and rates rise, or they increase the debt burden and sovereign risk is priced in via rate rises. With a continuation of the current economic policies, the end result of a default is inevitable. It's not rocket science." For the traders out there GMI has the following simple recommendatio: "Buy the DXY."

karen said...

Macro Man has an interesting chart up of ISM and copper divergence.. i like it: http://macro-man.blogspot.com/

i'm sticking with the 1275 target for now..
crude to 92.. but it'll go sub 85 longer term..

karen said...

financials have yet to sell off, imo.. a few names looking particularly weak..

karen said...

as for gold and silver.. beware the ides of march..

karen said...

New Video: POMO Effects on Treasury Auctions and Markets Risk Removal Trades (George Cavaligos) http://mrtopstep.com/?p=2799

Jennifer said...

NFLX up 8??? This day is nuts. Of course, makes it a nice short again.

CV said...

"as for gold and silver.. beware the ides of march..."

awful nice of people to start freaking out about everything and dumping paper contracts ahead of JPM having to pony up for the difference in its naked shorting for March...

I'm sure Jamie Dimon is much obliged...

ben22 said...

@jennifer, see my 11:15

might just be testing the neckline, re: NFLX

@CV,

who are these people that are so certain they know JPM's trades, how do you verfiy any of that stuff?

karen said...

from one min ago: Sellputs
what the fuck netflix .. who is fucking engineering this .. this stock is a fucking joke..

karen said...

FAZ not breaking down.. but hasn't broken UP out of its triangle.. watching it on 60 min/20 day chart.. key to the spx, in any case..

wouldn't want to see the spx above 1305 either.

karen said...

yay ben on the nflx neckline.. good eye! and pls, who are those people that are so certain.. i would effing like to know, too.. i see more fabrications in the media than stars in the night sky, lol.

ben22 said...

also, aren't there a ton of shorts in NFLX, so you might expect sharp moves after big moves down.

I don't know....hate to say it, seems pretty normal to me

karen said...

since our bond guru mia/awol: USD 13bln 30yr Note. Yield: 4.569 Prev 4.61 B/C: 3.02 vs Prev 2.67 Indirects 40.7% Prev 37.69%

karen said...

ben, perhaps a 20% short position still in nflx so you are calling it true, imo.

I-Man said...

NFLX trades like all the rest of the Go Go's...

The harder they come, the harder they fall, one and all...

karen said...

http://www.housingwire.com/2011/03/10/two-mortgage-trade-groups-suing-fed-over-loan-originator-compensation

karen said...

copper bounce.. maybe it's just doing a tuesday, however..

karen said...

30 Year Auction Prices At 4.569%, Highest Bid To Cover In History On Flight To Safety http://is.gd/jnlebw

karen said...

ugh.. spx above 1305 : (

karen said...

faz actually moving higher and xlf/$bkx still weak.. looking for another drop in spx..

karen said...

look at synchronicity of indices again: 1.15 1.18 and 1.18

i hate that!

AmenRa said...

karen

They're trying to get the SPX above its weekly S1 at 1305.06. The weekly PP is 1318.67. Both were taken out in the first five minutes.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Well, it appears Mr. Gross is psychologically set-up like BinT...he, too, can sell early....@!

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/03/09/idaho-votes-phase-teacher-tenure-restrict-collective-bargaining/

Idaho Votes to Phase Out Teacher Tenure, Restrict Collective Bargaining


...similar bill will pass soon in Tennessee..

ben22 said...

not sure if this will work but here is the trannies and the industrials on a basic google chart:

http://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXDJX:.DJI

notice how the indu has yet to take out the Jan. 28 low, even then that's only a secondary swing, most dow theorists wouldn't bother much with it.

I stopped getting RR for a while, but last I heard he had told people to buy the diamonds if I'm not mistaken.....maybe he's changed his tune?

ben22 said...

I think when you run the largest mutual fund in the world you have no choice but to sell early, how could you ever exit and keep your paper profits otherwise?

bill gross is planning something, he's not going to sit on that much cash for long....

I'll let you guys know what I hear from PIMPCO, I have a meeting with them next week.

karen said...

there goes crude!

BBC Global News
Saudi police fire at rally in the east of the country after government warns against protests - AP

karen said...

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/10/businesspro-us-usa-gundlach-bonds-idUSTRE7295J120110310

karen said...

indices still all in sync..

ben22 said...

I still can't believe gundlach is 51, he looks like he's in his 20's.

ben22 said...

karen,

1305 got sold hard

dont' fade the I-man or Andy T. Those guys are so hot right now.....like Hansel.

AmenRa said...

The scream heard all around the world trading floors..."Protect SMA(55) on the SPX! Or else!"

AmenRa said...

n/m too late.

karen said...

ben, on RR.. BR had a fusion IQ slide show today, said RR was bearish.. i didn't bother with the damn thing..

AmenRa said...

Up next the 2/24/11 low. Tickets please.

karen said...

hot money running to gold, silver, crude ? LOL... perfect, just perfect.. great asset inflation plan the Fed had..

AmenRa said...

I think the fact that two levels of support are so close together is what makes them dangerous.

ben22 said...

ah, ok. Barry mentions that in the video as well
RR is a great guy, he's been around forever, seen lots of things, but I just wasn't getting much from his service anymore.

I-Man said...

Lets kill it.

ben22 said...

This looks C waverish homies

AT's 1275 is bang on

look at how many individual stocks sport the same or similar pattern

DD looks almost identical to the S&P, for example.

I-Man said...

Just took out the death line, Ben

karen said...

shoot, we still haven't taken out feb low.. 1294.26

AmenRa said...

Ruh roh. TICKS hit -1068 as it took out the 2/24/11 low.

karen said...

i said that just so i could be make wrong : )

ben22 said...

yes, keeping an eye on that I. If that is broken you next line is the orange correct?

Jennifer said...

AR -- I don't really know how to use TICK. Why is it bad that it was under 1000. Is that a fadeable #?

AmenRa said...

Right on schedule. Here they come to save the day!!!

I-Man said...

red... orange... yellow...

I-Man said...

holy crude

I-Man said...

Look at em bid those 10s...

WTF is LB???

AmenRa said...

Jennifer

It shows the number of individual stocks that were sold/bought at that moment. More stocks were sold as the SPX hit a new low so it's in agreement with that move. If it didn't hit a new low TICK I'd expect a reversal soon.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

The 10 year breaks 3.4!

Gross, come back!

ben22 said...

seriously, he's missing all the action this week, bonds certainly interesting today

Jennifer said...

Thanks, AR

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Bill Gross kidnapped LB, and locked him in a small cell with the Swedish twins...I thought you knew?

I-Man said...

Do the twins trade?

karen said...

LB posted at Macro Man this week. I understand he has a multi-week trip out of the country coming up.. so get used to his absence! Anyway, I'm sure he's reading us and not missing a thing.

I-Man said...

I'd say theres a few more sellers than buyers in the equities...

Gravity Bitchez...

karen said...

A rare chart pattern in gold. Which way is it going to break? http://bit.ly/hxgwLV

karen said...

I-Man, I don't think she does, LOL.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Trade what?




:)

karen said...

nflx on the 60 min.. run over??

ben22 said...

could be getting a little bear flag action here....and you could argue it's the second one today, I've seen that before, a series of steps down out of flags to complete waves.

karen said...

chet!! i hope you are around.. 3 peaks and a domed house in gold.. our fav formation..

karen said...

no faz breakout; im despondent.

Jennifer said...

Karen -- on NFLX, near perfect retrace to the 50 DMA...I meant to watch for that since it was the perfect shorting oppty...but my other job took priority!

karen said...

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2011/3/10/bespokes-commodity-snapshot.html

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