TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Corner 3.1.11

Morning Corner 3.1.11

DXY (weekly info)
new low 77.28
trend=down
hlow= 77.28
rev= 78.13; mid= 77.71

Any questions?

Silver (weekly info)
new high 32.92
trend=up
high= 32.92
rev= 29.33; mid= 31.13

It's a done deal. Silver shorts are in the frying pan. The pain of keeping prices down has turned into torture.

236 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 236 of 236 Newer› Newest»

Cold Steel said...: Me?; March 1, 2011 at 3:46 PM
Brian Sack said...: Or me?; March 1, 2011 at 3:46 PM
AmenRa said...: There is a fight going on. TICKS going from +600 to -600 over and over and over. Seems like the bears don't want to tap out just yet.; March 1, 2011 at 3:47 PM
karen said...: go long crude storage tanks and vaults..; March 1, 2011 at 3:47 PM
AmenRa said...: Cold Steel meet Smelter...; March 1, 2011 at 3:48 PM
ben22 said...: To be clear, I would not trade long here though, I would only go long now if the 134 on SPY is taken out and does so with volume increase and stronger breadth

you know, go with the trend and all that, been a very profitable two days as strength in a correction was sold.

but good luck ninja's, make it rain if we get the bounce

X wave.; March 1, 2011 at 3:48 PM
ben22 said...: Ra,

I see phantom bars on my charts, I agree

this is WAR

no way I'll sleep tonight, tomorrow going to be exciting.; March 1, 2011 at 3:49 PM
karen said...: or just buy GLD with lots of leverage... it's gonna close at an all time high today..; March 1, 2011 at 3:49 PM
AFIA said...: EEM is doing a wedge thingy.

ben 22:

This is a big picture trading call based on the fact that bonds are a bit vulnerable here, considering ADP/NFP, technicals and auctions. That's always where we begin our analysis.; March 1, 2011 at 3:51 PM
Anonymous said...: When EEM breaks the wedge, it will break downwards.; March 1, 2011 at 3:52 PM
Anonymous said...: Forex & Bonds Last Change Change %
EUR/USD 1.3773 -0.0036 -0.26%
USD/JPY 81.91 +0.14 +0.17%
GBP/USD 1.6260 -0.0006 -0.04%
5-Year Treasury 2.118 -0.019 -0.89%
10-Year Treasury 3.414 0 0.00%
30-Year Treasury 4.49 0 0.00%

ol' Long-T, still, has his Dukes up~

ibid.; March 1, 2011 at 3:55 PM
Jennifer said...: I have that weird tick too -- on a bunch of time frames.; March 1, 2011 at 3:56 PM
Anonymous said...: http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=EEM

short the 42c & buy the 42p

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=EEM+Options

bank the 3+ (for later..)

AAIP; March 1, 2011 at 4:01 PM
ben22 said...: whatever your style is

I trade the waves, don't consider things like NFP, and most especially don't consider the ADP, the latter I'm still confused about why it even exists.... those are just white noise to me, my tech analysis says bearish, at least a bit longer, but I'm getting convinced we'll see that high again before this year is over or close to it, I just don't think that's right around the corner, so I'm more interested in identifying the tops of the countertrend rallies at the moment than I am buying dips, just a trading style, don't have the time to try and catch each directional move, too many things going on during the day, I don't like trading directionally against a trend when I might be away from the monitor for 3-4 hours at a time in the middle of it.

anyway, good luck, you've got the arms index in your favor tomorrow as well as that engulfing which I believe should normally see a green candle next day.; March 1, 2011 at 4:01 PM
AmenRa said...: SPX broke thru the earlier low and closed at the low. That ain't bullish.; March 1, 2011 at 4:02 PM
AmenRa said...: ben22

You always want confirmation. Nothing is absolute. The algos know this all too well.; March 1, 2011 at 4:04 PM
karen said...: Citigroup Says It May Face $3 Billion in Claims From Lehman - http://ow.ly/45Ss0; March 1, 2011 at 4:04 PM
I-Man said...: Gnarly market...

The down move on the hourly chart from yesterdays afternoon highs aint nuthin to F with...; March 1, 2011 at 4:05 PM
Anonymous said...: actually, on EEM, the 44p are better/less expensive..

ibid.

h/t to the Margin Clerk~; March 1, 2011 at 4:05 PM
AFIA said...: Ben, not completely clear to me that we have changed direction or that the top is in. Personally I believe that it is, but from a trading perspective I am not convinced and I think there may be pain for bonds here.

Red close. Now what do we associate with that...?; March 1, 2011 at 4:08 PM
ben22 said...: indeed Ra,

bullish as I might be for tomorrow, I'm not trading it.

plan was to short yesterday but no adding until more downside targets are hit and I will constantly adjust stops as we go along, I like AT's general target of 1220 for the X wave alteration. At this point, I cannot lose on my trade as I've laready booked gains and will be stopped out at even on the rest.

As far as algo's go though, most are based on physics models, so they do think absolutes exist in markets

people seem to forget how many quants literally exploded in 2008, many of them are programmed with the concept of EMH built in.; March 1, 2011 at 4:11 PM
AFIA said...: We are at 29% fixed income with a 8% hedge.
A few weeks ago we were at about 44% fixed income.

We have 5% SPY and 17% individual equity longs.
We also have a 7% EURUSD short.; March 1, 2011 at 4:11 PM
karen said...: You gotta look at $wlsh.. wiped out last two days of gains.. $tran, 3 days of gains.. and
$bkx bettered last weeks lows by a few pennies..; March 1, 2011 at 4:12 PM
karen said...: General warns US might have to bomb Libya http://goo.gl/m4jE4; March 1, 2011 at 4:13 PM
Anonymous said...: Market Last Change %
Crude Oil 99.96 +2.99 +3.08
Natural Gas 3.876 -0.161 -3.99
Corn 735.5 +4.5 +0.62
Soybeans 1375.25 +10.50 +0.77
30yr Bond 120.46875 +0.12500 +0.10
10yr Note 119.125000 +0.078125 +0.07
NY Gold 1433.6 +23.7 +1.68
NY Silver 34.660 +0.840 +2.48
Emini S&P 1305.25 -20.75 -1.56
Emini Nasdaq 2315.00 -35.75 -1.52
Emini Dow 12050 -164 -1.34

on the 1st, even? too, poetic~ (after all that tripe about perma-green first days of the Month...)

AAIP; March 1, 2011 at 4:13 PM
I-Man said...: YM still in freefall mode... down 200; March 1, 2011 at 4:15 PM
ben22 said...: AFIA,

I have no clue what is going on with bonds right now, I said it....lol.

same thing with the dollar, SPY is the clearest thing I can see right now, but, as I'm hinting above, this might only be a scratch before the big blowout comes on the downside.

I don't like the idea that we never tested that top, I'm attempting to go back and study major tops over the next week or so, usually that's a process though with the one's I've observed, and we didnt' have that on 2/18, we just went down, so I'm with you that THE top might not be in....

gl; March 1, 2011 at 4:16 PM
spoonman said...: I sold my puts at the close and felt like a genius. Shoulda held on, idiot...; March 1, 2011 at 4:16 PM
I-Man said...: Ya did right, Spoony...; March 1, 2011 at 4:18 PM
AmenRa said...: spoonman

I-Man is right. Book profits cuz tomorrow could be a nasty gap up and the profits vanish. Poof.; March 1, 2011 at 4:29 PM
AFIA said...: Gather ye Profits while Ye May.

Don't stop thinking about tomorrow.....

The sabre-rattling might be just a device to get Ghaddafi to move on. The US would be stupid to get involved. A lot of this Middle East crisis trade is just psychological and it will reverse quite sharply at some point.; March 1, 2011 at 4:36 PM
spoonman said...: I know, I know, I just don't want to go broke taking profits...or something.; March 1, 2011 at 4:40 PM
ben22 said...: Spoon,

nobody ever got hurt taking a profit

but then, as one trader I know told me

yeah....but nobody gets rich scalping either....

my initial though on the US bombing Libya:

That's just going to make the rest of the world even more angry, and probably encourage action against Israel.

Did you all see how Member's Only Jacket is claiming the 2012 Olympic design really spells out ZION and so it should be banned....; March 1, 2011 at 4:55 PM
AFIA said...: Working on The Report. You will have it momentarily..; March 1, 2011 at 5:02 PM
AFIA said...: The Bond Report 3.1.11

A modest risk-off day, that included a POMO of 30y bonds. Despite the drop in equities, the only big winners today were IQI and TIP, as the oil scare continues to inflate the TIPS market, and the heat is off munis for the time being. All in all, this wasn't very bullish action in bonds. ADP tomorrow, claims and NFP lined up after that to bash fixed income in the nose, and then when all that is done, supply next week.

Corpies: LQD 0.00%; AGG -0.08%; JNK -0.48%; HYG -0.15%
Govies: TLT 0.29%; IEI 0.13%; TIP 0.58%
Munis: IQI 0.51%; MUB -0.19%
Mortgages: MBB 0.07%
Specialty: ZROZ 0.29%; TBT -0.56%; EMB 0.05%

We were sellers of AGG today, and put a hedge on.
Down to 29% F/I now. 8% hedge.
We bought some SPY (5%). We are short EURUSD (7%).
Go Bucky.

Although with Libya gurgling on we could be wrong, today smells like resistance for bonds, and we think there will be weakness from here into next week's auctions.; March 1, 2011 at 5:13 PM
AmenRa said...: Got it. New thread up.; March 1, 2011 at 5:20 PM

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This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.

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Morning Corner 3.1.11

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