TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Corner 3.3.11

Morning Corner 3.3.11

30 Yr T-Bond (weekly info)
WEEKLY REVERSAL new high 121.906
trend=no
direction=up (1 bar)
high= 121.906
rev= 117.938; mid= 119.922

The strength of last weeks reversal is wearing off fast. I guess holding the long bond is not the preferred option. If the large bond holders feel that higher yields are in order to hold US debt then expect this move down to continue.

NFLX (weekly info)
WEEKLY REVERSAL new low 212.43
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
low= 212.43
rev= 234.71; mid= 223.57

These are not the streaming movies you are looking for. Has a glitch appeared in the matrix? Is the glitch Amazon? When will Netflix have to pay for infrastructure? I'm old enough to remember running to the video store to get the new rentals. How time flies.

212 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 1 – 200 of 212 Newer› Newest»

Bruce in Tennessee said...: Meanwhile here in flyover country, the gas that was 2.97 three weeks ago is now 3.36 yesterday, up from 3.25 48 hours earlier.

Yes, this will leave a mark...; March 3, 2011 at 7:13 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-03/cotton-sales-surge-in-australia-as-u-s-is-sold-out-shippers-group-says.html

"Cotton buyers have purchased more than 80 percent of the coming harvest from Australia, the fourth-largest shipper, stepping up the pace of advance sales as a shortage pushes prices to a record, an industry executive said.

The amount of so-called forward sales compared with usual levels of 50 percent to 60 percent at this time, Phill Ryan, a director of the Australian Cotton Shippers Association, said in an interview. “The U.S. is the biggest exporter in the world and they are sold out,” Ryan said yesterday in Canberra."

..That's ok, Lefty. You can save money by leaving the L monogram off the cuffs...; March 3, 2011 at 7:16 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: (No, actually he has an L put on the left and an R put on the right...what did you think?????); March 3, 2011 at 7:17 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-02/rogoff-says-debt-restructuring-inevitable-in-greece-ireland.html

Rogoff Says Debt Restructuring ‘Inevitable’ in Greece, Ireland

"Portugal will accept a financial bailout “within the next few weeks” as the cost of issuing debt becomes unsustainable, according to Axa Investment Managers, which oversees $714 billion in assets. Rogoff said in an interview with Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung published Feb. 10 that countries such as Greece and Portugal should be urged to leave the euro region for 10 to 15 years to help restore public finances."; March 3, 2011 at 7:20 AM
CV said...: Portugal will accept a financial bailout “within the next few weeks” as the cost of issuing debt becomes unsustainable...

---

Good thing we have a printing press then... We're so "smart"!; March 3, 2011 at 7:24 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-03/trichet-faces-oil-shock-as-inflation-above-2-makes-ecb-officials-fret.html

Trichet Faces Oil Shock That May Damp Growth, Fuel Inflation

“Trichet will have to assure the public that the ECB is alert and won’t tolerate inflation,” said Klaus Baader, co- chief euro-area economist at Societe Generale in London. “At the same time, the economic recovery is still rather fragile and spiking oil prices will weigh on consumption and company profits.”

....I see a way to save money right now! Trichet can use the same speech Bernanke just gave congress. Brilliant!...(Please, hold the applause.); March 3, 2011 at 7:24 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: CV,

I was thinking about this last night. What has this prolonged low interest rate policy done? Let's see. Housing bubble, inflation abroad and now here in food, decreased incomes for the elderly, confusion in Fed policy, a prolonging of the federal credit card mentality....and a devaluing of the dollar and possibly a new round of Arthur Burns stagflation.

..Seems like a lot for one little policy to rasie this much havoc...plus China wants to own all the iron ore, oil, etc. they can get their hands on...

...interesting times...; March 3, 2011 at 7:31 AM
CV said...: ht/ZH

...and with air coverage, the no fly zone [Libya] will likely be instituted by Monday of next week, which, as Robert Gates telegraphed earlier, is the codeword for a "NATO" invasion.

Which means this weekend will likely be do or die in terms of game theory defection choices for the Gaddafi family: will he defect peacefully and spend the rest of his days with his friend Robert Mugabe, the world's second best performing stock market after the NYSE Borse, and a few hundred pounds of gold, or will he set fire to the Libyan oil infrastructure as he leaves the scene kicking and screaming...

ROR; March 3, 2011 at 7:33 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b2de27c4-4501-11e0-80e7-00144feab49a.html?ftcamp=rss#axzz1FXUu3K2u

Fed’s Beige Book points to inflation; March 3, 2011 at 7:35 AM
AmenRa said...: Why are futures higher? DXY & EURUSD have barely moved. Gold, silver and oil are down. Was the the fact that the market didn't make any headway into the long down day? The rumor that Chavez has a plan to settle things in Libya?; March 3, 2011 at 7:48 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/retirement/state-worker-retirements-are-soaring-across-the-country/19863365/

State Workers Are Retiring in Droves; March 3, 2011 at 7:53 AM
CV said...: @Bruce

CV's "THEORY" (and I will continue to express this until all of you get this through your KNUCKLEHEADS is this)...

- The game is over (as far as the dollar being the worlds reserve currency)...

- The Fed (& PD's know this)...

- While everyone else is still running around 'trading stocks' (which are valued in that 'soon to be EX RESERVE CURRENCY' - actually it has already ceased in that function in practice - it's just nobody has officially acknowledged it yet), the Chinese are runnung around buying all the raw commodities in the world and warehousing them...

Copper, Gold, Silver, Crude, Cotton, anything they can get their hands on...

The PD's kinda know this too, and are buying contracts for physical as well...

---

All anyone is waiting for right now is the "announcement" of QE3 (or NOT - perhaps)...

Not that it really matters, but it WOULD have a short term blip in prices...

So let's say there's NO QE3??? Well guess what??? Stocks would tank, the RECOVERYLESS RECOVERY would take a further hit, and within 2 months, they'd probably have to come in with another RESCUE anyway... Which means??? QE3 anyway...

OR - They just go ahead and keep monetizing the debt... Well in that case, commodity prices just keep going vertical until some other endgame is reached...

---

I'm hopeful of the first scenario and fearful of the 2nd...

Either way, it doesn't matter... The only difference is whether you'll get a chance to buy physical silver at $30 (or $25 at worst)... Frankly - If that happened, I don't think there would be any silver left on the planet (because I'd bet JPM itself would get Bernanke to print them some dollars, and buy up half of SLV and stand for delivery)...

But we'll see... Bottom line is, as long as the dollar is 'technically' the worlds reserve currency, it's just a COUNTERFEITTING mechanism to acquire raw goods...

So, as an individual citizen, what do you want to spend your time doing???

- Start procuring your own little warehouse of the raw goods you find handy in your daily life (& for your family and friends who might need your help)???

- Trade slips of paper based on the "prices" of various things that really have NO VALUE, then go REDEEM any "profits" you made for Federal Reserve notes (which are being devalued under your nose)... And, of course, pay the government a TAX on the profits of those transactions???

I know what I'd choose...; March 3, 2011 at 7:53 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Amen:

JBTFD...; March 3, 2011 at 7:54 AM
CV said...: Food Prices Hit New All Time Record In February

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/food-prices-hit-new-all-time-record-february; March 3, 2011 at 8:15 AM
Mr. Magoo (Greenspan) said...: "You can't eat food. It is a barbaric relic..."; March 3, 2011 at 8:17 AM
CV said...: I hear Ritholtz is filling his shelves with "Fancy Feast" (brand) catfood...; March 3, 2011 at 8:19 AM
Al Gore said...: What we REALLY need to do is to turn all out corn into ethanol to stop global warming...; March 3, 2011 at 8:20 AM
Jennifer said...: From TBP:

Futures are very strong today — I expect trading today will be the key pivot point of this rally. If it fails today, we should expect significant downside, on the order of 5-10%.

If the rally shows breadth, volume, and a close near the highs, it will make me rethink my correction stance.

More to come later . . .; March 3, 2011 at 8:20 AM
CV said...: @Jennifer

Consider yourself lucky to have the opportunity to live in a time where you can teach "food austerity" to your children...; March 3, 2011 at 8:25 AM
AmenRa said...: Market is afraid of being under the weekly 3LB mid for the second week in a row. Hee hee. My .02; March 3, 2011 at 8:29 AM
CV said...: @Amen

I'll bet half the 'fund managers' are underperforming this quarter (because the market has been ready to nosedive since December & most have probably been playing it safe)...

Catch up time?

Watch the high beta going into the last 3 weeks of the quarter... (Plus XOM & COP don't look all that 'bearish' to me)...; March 3, 2011 at 8:35 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://money.cnn.com/2011/03/03/real_estate/housing_buy_or_not/index.htm

Home prices: The double-dip is near

"On Tuesday, we found out that home prices were near their post-bust lows. Two days later the government reported that January saw a double-digit dip in the number of new homes sold.

Then Robert Shiller, the Yale economist and co-founder of the S&P/Case-Shiller home price indexes, dropped this bomb: "There's a substantial risk of home prices falling another 15%, 20% or 25%," he said."

...Well, the mine is booked s o l i d today...will have to gun it in a few minutes...; March 3, 2011 at 8:45 AM
CV said...: "Well, the mine is booked s o l i d today"...

Don't tell me the Bernank is doing a John Dillinger!; March 3, 2011 at 8:49 AM
Anonymous said...: peep w/ 1/2 a wit should, seriously, pay attention to this construct:

So, as an individual citizen, what do you want to spend your time doing???

- Start procuring your own little warehouse of the raw goods you find handy in your daily life (& for your family and friends who might need your help)???

- Trade slips of paper based on the "prices" of various things that really have NO VALUE, then go REDEEM any "profits" you made for Federal Reserve notes (which are being devalued under your nose)... And, of course, pay the government a TAX on the profits of those transactions???

I know what I'd choose...

LSS: 'Dollars' are a bad deal..

AAIP; March 3, 2011 at 8:51 AM
CV said...: @AAIP

I was interested in that COW/CALF auction you were talking about in the the last thread...

I'm looking at trying to get ahold of another couple of acres of "grazing" grounds...; March 3, 2011 at 8:57 AM
karen said...: good morning!

"After a busy 2 days on Capital Hill, Bernanke is back in the turret and futures are surging. ;)

That resistance at S&P 1314 will be smoked in premarket - as almost any resistance level the past 2 years has been taken care of."

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2011/03/so-much-for-resistancepremarket-gappage.html; March 3, 2011 at 9:01 AM
karen said...: speculators running wild, i swear:

http://pointsandfigures.com/2011/03/03/flash-crash-in-cocoa-futures/; March 3, 2011 at 9:03 AM
AFIA said...: Another shite morning on the NY subway system... Effing 3rd world country.....

well, a few days ago, ol' AFIA pointed out:

strike 1 : ADP
strike 2: claims
strike 3: NFP

as being curve balls ahead for fixed income. we are now at strike 2. then we have auctions next week, so we see the long bond being well back into our buy zone (4.6%-4.8%) by the middle of next week. After that we are back to our usual stance. These may be PEAK EMPLOYMENT numbers for now, and the RECOVERYLESS RECOVERY continues.

Our hedge is green and so is our SPY. Happiness.; March 3, 2011 at 9:20 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Why aren't you helicoptered into work, AFIA?; March 3, 2011 at 9:22 AM
Anonymous said...: cv--,

I was, really, shocked to see Calves trading at those Prices..

some were going for less than U$D 40/head ..

even, on the 'high end' they were less than U$D 90 ..

'Pasturing' those dudes would be a 'lay-up'..

though, it'd be helpful do be 'buds' w/ a DVM..at the min..to begin with..

ibid.; March 3, 2011 at 9:24 AM
AFIA said...: My thanks to Bob for saving me excess losses on EURUSD, that was a good place for stops to be set. Mes remerciments...

Bruce, nobody gets rich by flashing the readies to get to work....; March 3, 2011 at 9:29 AM
Anonymous said...: Today will be some form of melt-up/squeeze/bear roast. The interesting thing today will be to watch the laggards as they are the next sick wildebeests to be picked off.

FXI has just traded horribly of late. Even if there is a squeeze for some days, the re-entry will be inviting next week.

That's re-entry, not rear entry...; March 3, 2011 at 9:31 AM
Cold Steel said...: Sometimes I come first thing in the morning.; March 3, 2011 at 9:32 AM
Bucky the Talking Currency said...: DXY 76.38 low, still above the 10/14 low.
The 11/04 low was 75.63, that's the line in the sand.

WSJ special on the dollar's decline today.
Peeps reading on the train.

Sentiment extreme?; March 3, 2011 at 9:39 AM
AmenRa said...: Looking at the first five 1-min candles indicates the bulls DO NOT have complete control.; March 3, 2011 at 9:40 AM
Jennifer said...: EEM breakout?; March 3, 2011 at 9:44 AM
karen said...: Well, LB, your SPY must be up a whole point, point and a half! Are you going to take the chips off the table.. I assume you bot thousands and thousands of shares.. Or keep for SPX 1500? Just call me sour grapes, laughing.; March 3, 2011 at 9:46 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-03/german-two-year-yields-at-highest-level-in-18-months-ahead-of-ecb-meeting.html

"German two-year government notes plunged, pushing the yield up to the highest in more than 20 months, as European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said interest rates may be increased at the next meeting.

Ten-year yields also surged as Trichet told reporters in Frankfurt that inflation risks have moved to the “upside.” The European Central Bank left its benchmark interest rate at a record low of 1 percent."

...At a trading saloon in Deadwood, a fixed income trader slings open the swinging doors and comes out firing. "Trichet and Bernanke didn't stand a chance" he is said to have remarked as he reloads his six-shooter...; March 3, 2011 at 9:50 AM
AFIA said...: Jen

I think EEM squeeze.
Many HF had Long DM:Short EM trades on.

Sour Grapes

We probably will not overstay our welcome in SPY.
Middle of next week for that one.

Ra

Look for a Death of Treasuries crescendo next week.; March 3, 2011 at 9:52 AM
Cold Steel said...: Bears will be wondering if this is H&S set-up.
We think it will be more like S&M for them.; March 3, 2011 at 9:54 AM
karen said...: triangles everywhere! $bks, $rut, $wlsh, $spx..

$tran not looking so good.. that's an H&S tilted in the down direcion..; March 3, 2011 at 9:58 AM
AmenRa said...: TICKS didn't hit a new high after the push this morning. Guess it's not as bullish as it looks.; March 3, 2011 at 10:00 AM
Anonymous said...: http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=GRM&ty=c&ta=0&p=d

look at the 'Pennant' on that puppy~

~~~

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=CC&p=h1

Cocoa, hourly

ibid.; March 3, 2011 at 10:00 AM
CV said...: @AAIP

I was, really, shocked to see Calves trading at those Prices..

some were going for less than U$D 40/head ..

even, on the 'high end' they were less than U$D 90 ..

'Pasturing' those dudes would be a 'lay-up'..

My thought is that it might have something to do with grain prices... If you're doing it COMMERCIALLY, the last thing you need is another mouth to feed...

So really, it might come down to individuals who has their own meadows buying small herds... Roughly speaking, you need around 2 acres (one to graze, and the other to grow more fodder on a rotational basis)... And that's "per head"... But I suppose you could double up on the young uns for awhile...

Anyway - I'm not sure if Lefty has that much space in his Gotham flat for Elsie... He's probably more the "Milk Bar" (from Clockwork Orange type anyway)... :-); March 3, 2011 at 10:03 AM
Anonymous said...: http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=EEM

breakout N. of ~48, no?

now 46.59

ibid.; March 3, 2011 at 10:03 AM
AFIA said...: We have had so many H&S set-ups. They all failed. There is a man outside with a massive fire-hose full of liquidity. It's too early to dry out the basement. Now, generally I am as bearish as the next bear, but if crude falls $5-10, they can gun this thing 5% northwards in a heartbeat.

Better to use the bond market as a guide. JNK is still solid, and we have a fair amount of room under TLT before we get a retest. That's the right time to start shorting equities aggressively. Next week, Thursday about 11.45, after the 10y has been sold to the moon, or at least out to 3.65-3.75% area. Then FYB with fixed income and get back to shorting the emerging markups.; March 3, 2011 at 10:06 AM
Anonymous said...: http://www.momofuku.com/restaurants/milk-bar/; March 3, 2011 at 10:09 AM
Anonymous said...: cv--

re: COMMERCIALLY, the last thing you need is another mouth to feed...

totally, I noted, in the other thread, "Cost of Feed" was heard, often, muttered..

at these Price Levels, the traditional 'metrics' are Broken..

AAIP; March 3, 2011 at 10:09 AM
karen said...: Services ISM Prints Better Than Expected; Prices, Inventories At Multi-Year Highs http://is.gd/4cB00e

XRT not playing ball..; March 3, 2011 at 10:13 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: When is the next PPI...March 16th?

Will that be the day NOT to play small ball?; March 3, 2011 at 10:17 AM
karen said...: sour grapes.. lb, you would have been better off with Qs.. could have bot twice as much and more than dbled your % gain.. financials are holding the s&p back..; March 3, 2011 at 10:17 AM
Anonymous said...: "We have had so many H&S set-ups. They all failed."

morning gap up was nearly the exact minimum upside for the plain as day inverse H&S on the charts; March 3, 2011 at 10:17 AM
Jennifer said...: MEH -- that pennant argues against a visit down to the 50 dma though, right?; March 3, 2011 at 10:17 AM
karen said...: http://www.pehub.com/97477/debt-men-tell-no-lies-largest-lbos-remain-on-shaky-ground/; March 3, 2011 at 10:20 AM
AFIA said...: When is the next PPI...March 16th?

PPI tends to impact front end and the belly, which we generally don't play. The long end will certainly have priced in a hefty +1.0% or more PPI by the time that baby arrives. The long end looks at the jobs numbers and it looks at auctions of 10s. You could actually use the PPI week to buy the 5y as it should be quite tasty there, and PPI will peak after this Libyan nonsense.; March 3, 2011 at 10:22 AM
AFIA said...: K

I tried to think of a clever rejoinder but the fact is you're right.
... and very beautiful too.; March 3, 2011 at 10:24 AM
Jennifer said...: This is what I'm looking at. I find the respect for these fib lines (which I didn't draw) to be fascinating. Despite the fact that we're up big, things seem weak to me.
http://screencast.com/t/Sr14EuZy6DTZ; March 3, 2011 at 10:24 AM
M E Hoffer said...: J-

it's a good Q: , would be interesting to hear other input as to its A:

I've been under the impression that 'Pennants' could break 'either way', but, that 'moves' will, surely, come (one way, or the other) ..

though, note, that may be, totally, erroneous..

AAIP; March 3, 2011 at 10:29 AM
karen said...: AJELive AJELive
by jsphctrl
France rejects Venezuelan president offer to mediate in #Libya and dismissed talk of any solution that would allow Gaddafi to stay in power.; March 3, 2011 at 10:29 AM
AFIA said...: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=FVX:IND

The 5y might have an encounter with the 2.4-2.6% zone ahead. We would probably buy that, and dump some junk at the same time.; March 3, 2011 at 10:32 AM
karen said...: Oh, this makes sense: zerohedge,
Lumber limit up; March 3, 2011 at 10:32 AM
Jennifer said...: Karen -- must be all the new houses we're going to build.; March 3, 2011 at 10:33 AM
Anonymous said...: EEM capable of a run at 47. Don't rush the rear entry...; March 3, 2011 at 10:37 AM
karen said...: Jenn, well we gotta start building now, right? i think Buffett said inventories would be exhausted by next year..; March 3, 2011 at 10:37 AM
Anonymous said...: That should have been re-entry.; March 3, 2011 at 10:37 AM
karen said...: the world is crazy, absolutely crazy. Nicholas Kristof -
Thuggish government in Ivory Coast opens fire on women protesting peacefully, kills five: http://bit.ly/hPSYI6; March 3, 2011 at 10:38 AM
AFIA said...: Buffett said inventories would be exhausted by next year..

He did say that. Remarkably stupid unless he knows some policy moves in DC will initiate a fire sale this summer.; March 3, 2011 at 10:38 AM
Lord Blankfiend said...: Try protesting outside our offices and see how long you last.; March 3, 2011 at 10:39 AM
Anonymous said...: look at europe....; March 3, 2011 at 10:41 AM
AFIA said...: Europe still looking at Brent $115.
Probably a good day to sell European bank stocks.; March 3, 2011 at 10:49 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Some-retailers-sales-beat-but-rb-2250696364.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=

Retailers' sales rise, but gas prices threaten

"But retailers should brace for challenges, he added.

"It will be difficult for retailers," Jelinek said, noting that the chains in March will face the double whammy of higher prices for clothing and gasoline that will probably prompt shoppers to cut back.

Retailers have had time to prepare for higher cotton prices, but gas prices have emerged as a more immediate threat.

Higher fuel prices will lead shoppers to consolidate trips, Jelinek said, meaning fewer impulse purchases, especially by lower-income shoppers.

"When you're pumping in $50 to $75 to fill up your car, or more depending on what you drive, it's a major hit for a lot of consumers," said Retail Metrics President Ken Perkins. "We're rapidly approaching that point."

...nattering nabobs of negativism...; March 3, 2011 at 10:53 AM
AFIA said...: The last dollar bull...? This is basically the Leftback Line, also the Gundlach scenario, and from a major fixed income player.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-03/blackrock-s-fink-says-he-s-a-big-buyer-of-dollars-that-gross-says-avoid.html; March 3, 2011 at 10:57 AM
AFIA said...: 4% 10y is a lot of people's line in the sand, another reason why we think that we may not get there. Everyone will start piling in early.; March 3, 2011 at 10:59 AM
karen said...: http://blogs.hbr.org/haque/2011/02/we_all_work_at_enron_now.html; March 3, 2011 at 11:01 AM
karen said...: excellent article, lb.. i'll tell ya one thing.. $tnx and $spx are lashed together.. so the Bernank has another problem aside from crude oil..; March 3, 2011 at 11:06 AM
Anonymous said...: From Yahoo finance:

http://www.rareearthexporters.com/investors.html?utm_source=Yahoo&utm_medium=display&utm_campaign=rare_earth

Little guy being sucked in... ROR.; March 3, 2011 at 11:09 AM
karen said...: $7.24 billion purchased during POMO. $21.66 billion submitted.; March 3, 2011 at 11:09 AM
Anonymous said...: $tnx usually peaks first. You know the pattern....; March 3, 2011 at 11:10 AM
karen said...: MBA: Delinquency rates on CMBS loans rise to 8.95% http://goo.gl/fb/vP9Ff; March 3, 2011 at 11:10 AM
AFIA said...: Whispers of problems at two large German banks.
German bund yield curve has flattened considerably.

Someone well placed smells something bad.; March 3, 2011 at 11:15 AM
karen said...: perhaps of interest to some:

Future historians will long puzzle over how the self-immolation of a Tunisian street vendor, Mohamed Bouazizi, in protest over the confiscation of his fruit stand, managed to trigger popular uprisings across the Arab/Muslim world. We know the big causes — tyranny, rising food prices, youth unemployment and social media. But since being in Egypt, I’ve been putting together my own back-of-the-envelope guess list of what I’d call the “not-so-obvious forces” that fed this mass revolt. Here it is:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/02/opinion/02friedman.html?src=me&ref=general; March 3, 2011 at 11:17 AM
bob said...: USDJPY bucking the trend...; March 3, 2011 at 11:18 AM
karen said...: Sam Zell: "My single biggest financial concern is the loss of the dollar as the reserve currency. I can't imagine anything more disastrous to our country," the chairman of the Tribune Company as well as Equity Group Investments said in a live interview.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/41887217; March 3, 2011 at 11:19 AM
karen said...: was looking at YCS at yesterday's close.. sure looked like a buy chart-wise..; March 3, 2011 at 11:21 AM
karen said...: today EUO looks like THE BET.; March 3, 2011 at 11:21 AM
karen said...: "Sovereign debt has been off the radar the last few days as the market has focused on rates. German short-term rates are soaring, dragging the PIIGS up with them. Greece brushed 15% in the 2-year maturity this morning…Not good…"

http://www.forexlive.com/170903/all/this-cant-be-good; March 3, 2011 at 11:22 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: The last dollar bull...? This is basically the Leftback Line, also the Gundlach scenario, and from a major fixed income player.

..seems about right to me too, but I think short term will prove interesting..and I do hope rates go up..; March 3, 2011 at 11:22 AM
Jennifer said...: NFLX tanking...just broke thru 200 dma; March 3, 2011 at 11:23 AM
karen said...: uup at 22! lol; March 3, 2011 at 11:24 AM
bob said...: I'd still like to hear otto come out and complain about how high the euro is. Looking for any evidence of that....; March 3, 2011 at 11:30 AM
Anonymous said...: Interesting:

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/01/science/01conv.html?src=un&feedurl=http%3A%2F%2Fjson8.nytimes.com%2Fpages%2Fscience%2Findex.jsonp; March 3, 2011 at 11:31 AM
AFIA said...: Best time to short is after a squeeze....

whether you short EURUSD here depends on what is coming tomorrow in NFP. They can disappoint.... but next week's auctions will drive yields and the dollar higher I think.; March 3, 2011 at 11:33 AM
Jennifer said...: Check out the weird tick on SPY a few bars back -- way down.; March 3, 2011 at 11:38 AM
Anonymous said...: My JNK is firm. He said, smiling...; March 3, 2011 at 11:42 AM
karen said...: New Video: George Cavaligos Powerful Moves in Treasury Futures and Stock Indexes http://mrtopstep.com/?p=2704; March 3, 2011 at 11:46 AM
AFIA said...: Another dollar bull, Rosie outlines the summer scenario:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/what-happens-if-there-no-qe3-david-rosenberg-responds; March 3, 2011 at 11:47 AM
karen said...: BTW: DougKass Douglas Kass
by BigHungryShark
i just reshorted
1 hour ago; March 3, 2011 at 11:48 AM
Jennifer said...: Karen -- re: Kass, that explains the mini breakout we just had.; March 3, 2011 at 11:53 AM
bob said...: Good list of trades to fade

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/%E2%80%9C-%E2%80%9Cpopulation-bomb%E2%80%9D-echoes; March 3, 2011 at 11:53 AM
Larry Bothritz said...: Aggghhhh. Dougie... get LONG.....; March 3, 2011 at 11:54 AM
karen said...: my jaw is agape at the strenght in $indu.. 12400 by next monday.. UFB..; March 3, 2011 at 11:56 AM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/3-Reasons-Traditional-Asset-usnews-3675792707.html?x=0

3 Reasons Traditional Asset Allocation Doesn't Work

"The best way to overcome this globalization issue is to look for non-correlated global investments. Using things like currencies, commodities, global real estate, and global bonds is a great start to significantly diversifying your portfolio."

...Cramer would blow a gasket...no bank stock, retailer, miner, oil, etc. Not 100% equities?

sacre bleu!; March 3, 2011 at 12:01 PM
karen said...: Big Payrolls Report Being Priced In
By Jamie Coleman || March 3, 2011 at 16:51 GMT

The strong PMIs, jobless claims and ADP have traders pricing in a larger rise in payrolls. Estimates are ratcheting higher, from around 175/200,000 to 250/275,000…Rates are rising in the US (but not as fast as in Germany!) as a result.
We’ve seen this movie before and payrolls always end up playing the villain… I hope I’m wrong, but the market is setting itself up for disappointment, again.
US 10-year notes are up 9 bp to 3.56%.; March 3, 2011 at 12:03 PM
karen said...: only word of solace i can offer bears is that the market is exhibiting signs of hysteria that generally don't end well for bulls.; March 3, 2011 at 12:06 PM
Jennifer said...: We're back at levels that were sold only days ago...somehow I don't see that happening today.; March 3, 2011 at 12:11 PM
Anonymous said...: 3 Reasons Traditional Asset Allocation Doesn't Work

1. The BERNANK holding a fire hose.
2. TRICKY
3. VOLDEMORT

No free market, no diversification.; March 3, 2011 at 12:12 PM
karen said...: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/charles-ponzi-day-we-celebrate-another-all-time-record-food-stamp-usage; March 3, 2011 at 12:12 PM
AFIA said...: No data next week, so unless we have Euro issues...
More MOMO MELTUP, even if tomorrow is SELL THE NEWS.; March 3, 2011 at 12:14 PM
Anonymous said...: If we hear a high-pitched squeal at the close, that could be Dougie Kass and his exploding cojones.; March 3, 2011 at 12:19 PM
Cold Steel said...: Hi, Dougie.... I'm lurking.; March 3, 2011 at 12:19 PM
bob said...: 1330 still seems like a good resistance level for ES, can't get above 1328; March 3, 2011 at 12:20 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: If we hear a high-pitched squeal at the close, that could be Dougie Kass and his exploding cojones.

...ok, busy as I am, had to snort to keep from laughing out loud..; March 3, 2011 at 12:23 PM
Anonymous said...: In that case, our day has been a success.; March 3, 2011 at 12:26 PM
karen said...: http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/03/02/a-conspiracy-with-a-silver-lining/?hp; March 3, 2011 at 12:29 PM
Jennifer said...: Bob -- I'm with you, thinking about a short here, except that I have to leave in 10 minutes and I'll be gone about 1 1/2 hours. I hate that.; March 3, 2011 at 12:30 PM
AmenRa said...: If yields keep jumping like this the 10yr will be at 4% before its auction next week.; March 3, 2011 at 12:31 PM
karen said...: This comment has been removed by the author.; March 3, 2011 at 12:39 PM
karen said...: Yahoo! Finance (sorry, this is better link.)
Is the New York Fed Making a Big Mistake? http://yhoo.it/hZRngv; March 3, 2011 at 12:41 PM
karen said...: Government's Mortgage Bailout Under Attack http://www.cnbc.com/id/41889784; March 3, 2011 at 12:43 PM
karen said...: Keith McCullough
Hedge Fund Industry running with its highest net leverage since October of 2007 (all time high for SP500); March 3, 2011 at 12:43 PM
karen said...: good quote: But the markets’ drivers today won’t be in the front seat forever. Maybe, in the end, the dollar’s problems are less strategic, and more tactical, than many observers realize.

http://blogs.wsj.com/source/2011/03/03/even-now-dollar-bears-shouldnt-get-too-comfy/; March 3, 2011 at 12:47 PM
karen said...: you just know the dow wants to break 12260.. trying to catch the hot money naz..; March 3, 2011 at 12:58 PM
karen said...: is this market more insane than 2007, or what?!; March 3, 2011 at 12:59 PM
bob said...: Had to post this, couldn't link to it...

Profit surge bolsters Glencore ahead of IPO
Posted by Izabella Kaminska on Mar 3 09:56. Comment.

Glencore saw its net income surge nearly 40 per cent in 2010 on the back of higher commodities prices, helping the world’s largest trading house to bolster its valuation as it prepares to go public in London in the second quarter, More…

Glencore saw its net income surge nearly 40 per cent in 2010 on the back of higher commodities prices, helping the world’s largest trading house to bolster its valuation as it prepares to go public in London in the second quarter, the FT reports. The Switzerland-based trader said on Thursday that, excluding exceptional items, its net income rose to $3.79bn last year, up from $2.72bn in 2009, boosted by “strong metals prices” and “a significantly increased contribution” from its agricultural commodities unit. Oil trading was “subdued”, however. Glencore, led by South African chief executive Ivan Glasenberg, is in the process of a radical transformation, aiming for an initial public offering in the second quarter of the year that is likely to value the trading house at a minimum of $60bn. However, the group is keeping its options open and could decide to attempt a merger with Switzerland-based miner Xstrata, in which it owns a 34.4 per cent stake. Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse are advising Glencore on its options.; March 3, 2011 at 1:00 PM
karen said...: Thanks for that update, Bob. Ever so fascinating..; March 3, 2011 at 1:02 PM
bob said...: http://www.glencore.com/documents/Financial_Highlights_2010.pdf

This was the link I was looking for....

Very detailed reporting...2 whole pages.; March 3, 2011 at 1:07 PM
karen said...: housing bubbles in south africa and hong kong.. an interactive chart.

http://www.economist.com/node/21009954?fsrc=scn/tw/te/dc/clicksandmortar; March 3, 2011 at 1:34 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41879879/ns/health-sexual_health/

Virginity's making a comeback, report says

...Easy,Lefty, put the gun down...; March 3, 2011 at 1:37 PM
Anonymous said...: ROR.

3.55% on the 10y, hardly making a run at 4%.; March 3, 2011 at 1:48 PM
Mr Sack said...: We need more virgins to feed the suction device, all is on schedule...; March 3, 2011 at 1:49 PM
Anonymous said...: http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1194766,00.html#ixzz1FYyKOYQw

The Bush Administration has been quick to stress Libya's comeback as a model that Iran and North Korea should now follow.; March 3, 2011 at 1:52 PM
Lord Blankfiend said...: Brian, you run the PUMP.

We run the suction device, you fool.; March 3, 2011 at 2:01 PM
Larry Kudblow said...: In depth analysis of tomorrow's data:

STRONG NFP - stocks rally on THE ECONOMY
WEAK NFP - stocks rally on FED LIQUIDITY
So-So NFP - GOLDILOCKS ECONOMY. Party On.; March 3, 2011 at 2:03 PM
Anonymous said...: As the market melts up steadily, do Karen's hemlines follow?

(breathless with anticipation); March 3, 2011 at 2:06 PM
Jennifer said...: Closing in on Neely's SPY stop at 133.7.; March 3, 2011 at 2:18 PM
karen said...: thanks Jennifer.. we are already too close for comfort.; March 3, 2011 at 2:20 PM
karen said...: if we reverse, i will subscribe. call me on that.; March 3, 2011 at 2:21 PM
Jennifer said...: Its weird though...like its happening in slow motion. I would have expected a big "popped stops" sort of explosion, but it seems more like a drift up. Of course, I was at the grocery store, so what do I know.; March 3, 2011 at 2:22 PM
AFIA said...: There are shorts here at 1329 and up at 1344.
We are not among them.

All the conditions are ripe for a nasty squeeze.
If the 1329 shorts get burned here then you could put it on overnight.
Otherwise they will get done in the morning!; March 3, 2011 at 2:22 PM
karen said...: http://pragcap.com/revisiting-the-mystery-buyer; March 3, 2011 at 2:22 PM
Doug Kass said...: big "popped stops" sort of explosion

That was me at the open...; March 3, 2011 at 2:23 PM
Cold Steel said...: Now I am doing him slowly...; March 3, 2011 at 2:23 PM
karen said...: "The main takeaway is that there is a distinct trend in the market following these events. Last night I was emailing a friend in Asia who works at a big bank. With the S&P futures up just 5 points at 3AM EST (on no news) I told him – “this market is going to rip the heads off of shorts tomorrow. I guarantee it.” A few minutes later I wrote on Twitter: “I will be shocked if we are not up big tomorrow”. The action is transparent. When these buyers are in the overnight market the equity markets surge the next day and the action is always consistent. The market will stay pinned at its daily highs as if to be sitting on Atlas’s shoulders – just propped up perfectly and guaranteed to close at the highs of the day. I don’t know if this has to do with QE2 (there is no operational explanation for that) or what, but it is plain as day to anyone who takes the time to actually watch this unusual trading action. Someone bigger than the rest of us wants this market higher and they’re doing it while most of us sleep…Perhaps I am making something out of nothing, but it just doesn’t add up if you ask me."; March 3, 2011 at 2:24 PM
Anonymous said...: You can learn a lot, just by watching...; March 3, 2011 at 2:25 PM
Cold Steel said...: I love a good squeeze. Haven't had one of these for a while.
First you take the 1% immediately, then grind the next 1% out.
Then you allow a tiny dip at 3pm to suck in new shorts.
Finally you finish them with a firm upward thrust for another 1%.

Pure artistry.; March 3, 2011 at 2:29 PM
karen said...: sounds like TA* to me!

Tepper Analysis

You know, I should have trade marked recoveryless recovery because it's popping up other articles.. i think i said it first on TBP 2 years ago? Well, just before Andy started his blog.; March 3, 2011 at 2:31 PM
Anonymous said...: EEM 46.83
Some pain being felt out there.; March 3, 2011 at 2:32 PM
Anonymous said...: Agreed.

Everything good should be trade-marked.

Leftback Bottom™
Cold Steel™
John E Retail™
Brian the Broker™
Lord Blankfiend™; March 3, 2011 at 2:34 PM
Jennifer said...: You forgot Karen's Top.; March 3, 2011 at 2:37 PM
karen said...: my top was a total joke.. lol.. only off by over 300 pts and climbing..; March 3, 2011 at 2:38 PM
Anonymous said...: We NEVER for a moment, forget Karen's Top™.; March 3, 2011 at 2:41 PM
CV said...: "Retailers have had time to prepare for higher cotton prices, but gas prices have emerged as a more immediate threat..."

---

BLUE JEANS bitchez!; March 3, 2011 at 2:41 PM
Anonymous said...: Or what happens when we close red.; March 3, 2011 at 2:41 PM
Cold Steel said...: Are ya feelin' me, Dougie?; March 3, 2011 at 2:42 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Actually the markets do add up, I guess I'll have to tell you the secret....

...Ever read the story about The Shoemaker and the Elves? Remember when the Shoemaker went to sleep, how the elves got him ready for the next day?

....YEP!.....; March 3, 2011 at 2:43 PM
Larry Bothritz said...: One has to ask oneself, Douglas...

Why would you ASSUME THE POSITION?
Why would you ANNOUNCE IT ON TWITTER?
One wonders whether you ENJOY THE STEEL?; March 3, 2011 at 2:43 PM
Doug Kass said...: I can't talk right now.; March 3, 2011 at 2:44 PM
Anonymous said...: I-Man would be having a ball today.; March 3, 2011 at 2:45 PM
karen said...: Kass got stopped out of shorts at the open.. re-shorted however.. probably stopped out again..; March 3, 2011 at 2:46 PM
bob said...: I would have been stopped out...I have to start fading myself...; March 3, 2011 at 2:49 PM
Anonymous said...: Doug had a lot of bottoms in 2009. Then he called one on March 9th and got lucky. Of course, THE BOTTOM was March 6, at 666.79.

We all know who made THE CALL, around 3.45pm.

Of course Dougie and Barry got famous.... Ritzy was very good on TV in those first few days and weeks.; March 3, 2011 at 2:52 PM
CV said...: High beta bitchez!

Fund managers who have been shorting this thing all quarter are behind the 8-ball...; March 3, 2011 at 2:53 PM
Anonymous said...: Tops are much harder than bottoms to call, IMO.; March 3, 2011 at 2:53 PM
Anonymous said...: PERFORMANCE ANXIETY among the hooved throng.; March 3, 2011 at 2:54 PM
Cold Steel said...: COLD STEEL anxiety, more like....; March 3, 2011 at 2:54 PM
Truly Annoying said...: Can we dispense with the endless name changes for the sake of cheesy non-funny humor? It's as distracting and annoying and the constant third person crap.; March 3, 2011 at 2:56 PM
Anonymous said...: Sometimes the trading day drags a little, TA.
We are sure that each of the personalities have their fans.

Unless the BLOG POLICE are going to ban humor....; March 3, 2011 at 3:07 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Can we call you Truly or do you prefer annoying??; March 3, 2011 at 3:07 PM
Jennifer said...: I'm always a fan of multiple personalities. Giles is my favorite though.; March 3, 2011 at 3:08 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/saudi-arabia's-regime-will-fall-says-analyst-535988.html?tickers=EGPT,GULF,OIL,XLE,USO,%5EDJI,%5EGSPC

Saudi Arabia's Regime Will Fall, Says Analyst

...I think I might take the other side of that bet...with the money now spread throughout the populace, the term sheeple comes to mind...; March 3, 2011 at 3:12 PM
karen said...: LOVE CNBC THIS CLIP!!! If Ben Bernanke raises rates tomorrow crude oil would have an 8 in front of it.. (BTW, Kudlow has become logical?!)

http://www.hedgeye.com/unlocked_ideas/12165; March 3, 2011 at 3:12 PM
karen said...: I personally can't stand Giles but my sense of humour runs contrary to most..; March 3, 2011 at 3:13 PM
karen said...: Now, Bruce often has me LOL when Ieast expect it.. : ); March 3, 2011 at 3:14 PM
CV said...: @karen

You need to turn that "8" on it's side to have any relevance to anything Bernanke might do...; March 3, 2011 at 3:14 PM
karen said...: pretend that capital I is an l.. cuz before i "post comment" they look the same on my screen : ); March 3, 2011 at 3:15 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: That is because I am a suave older man...

Lefty, as we all know, was raised by a pack of wild wolves near London...; March 3, 2011 at 3:15 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: ...I saw an American Werewolf in London..scary territory...; March 3, 2011 at 3:16 PM
karen said...: Jennifer, what do you think? will 133.70 be taken out today or tomorrow?? LOL.. I'm gonna be really really sad, too.; March 3, 2011 at 3:17 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: and the pub the two hikers entered in the dark of night...served nothing but Guiness!...talk about torture...; March 3, 2011 at 3:18 PM
Jennifer said...: Loved that movie!
Karen -- unfortunately, I think you have accurately descripted the only two options. Since I'm dealing with options, I prefer to exit today and save as much remaining theta as possible.; March 3, 2011 at 3:21 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: DO NOT LOOK AT UPRO TODAY.

(you'll be sorry!).....; March 3, 2011 at 3:23 PM
Giles Straightarrow said...: Right. That's BLOODY WELL IT then. We are off. I doubt if we will bring the SUCTION DEVICE over for you lot any more.

We will just leave you to the PUMPING and whatever it is that COLD STEEL does to people like Mr Shorty that can't be mentioned here.; March 3, 2011 at 3:25 PM
Jennifer said...: Bruce, is UPRO a triple long?; March 3, 2011 at 3:25 PM
Jennifer said...: You know, I'd rather get the stop hit now during regular trading hours than have it gapped through in a big move up tomorrow.; March 3, 2011 at 3:27 PM
AmenRa said...: Jennifer

Theta really works against you after the first Friday of the month. Especially for otm options.; March 3, 2011 at 3:29 PM
Jennifer said...: its sad when the world is pinning its hopes on Hugo Chavez.; March 3, 2011 at 3:30 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.usdebtclock.org/

...hmmmmmm...please note in the lower left corner...small business assets.

Notice anything unusual??; March 3, 2011 at 3:31 PM
Jennifer said...: AR -- I know. I hardly have any March ones left, rolled out last week. And I only buy OTM in very small amts, more like lottery plays. I find that higher delta works best for daytrading.; March 3, 2011 at 3:32 PM
Hugo Chavez said...: its sad when the world is pinning its hopes on Hugo Chavez.

I send cheap heating oil for poor people. Is that so bad?; March 3, 2011 at 3:32 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Yes, Jennifer. It is. And with this neverending bull market to look at its performance since the fall of 2009 is depressing.; March 3, 2011 at 3:33 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Yes, small business assets are getting smaller...

Ok, Karen, enlighten...; March 3, 2011 at 3:34 PM
Jennifer said...: Okay -- reversal brewing, or bear trap?; March 3, 2011 at 3:38 PM
Jennifer said...: I guess I have my answer.; March 3, 2011 at 3:41 PM
karen said...: MS just sent out their aapl target $410.. but so they don't look bad, they mentioned S&P's call for $420..; March 3, 2011 at 3:45 PM
karen said...: http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2011/3/3/market-performance-on-job-report-fridays.html; March 3, 2011 at 3:47 PM
karen said...: Bruce, at this point in time, i don't think i could enlighten us out of a paper bag! laughing..; March 3, 2011 at 3:49 PM
Anonymous said...: Bruce was looking for a comment on small assets.
Obviously he went to the wrong place... LOL.; March 3, 2011 at 3:51 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: Truly Annoying has much more experience managing small assets than moi...; March 3, 2011 at 3:53 PM
karen said...: ICE FUTURES U.S. LOWERS MARGIN REQUIREMENTS FOR SUGAR FUTURES; March 3, 2011 at 3:55 PM
Jennifer said...: There's a lot of congestion around the 1313 level. I'm kindof thinking we may go back and revisit that even if we do go on to make new highs.; March 3, 2011 at 3:57 PM

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Morning Corner 3.3.11

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