TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Corner 3.10.11

Morning Corner 3.10.11

EWZ Brazil ETF (weekly info)
WEEKLY CONFIRMATION new high 75.27
trend=no
direction=up (2 bars)
high= 75.27
rev= 71.75; mid= 73.51

It's been holding the lower trend line and staying above the weekly 3LB mid throughout the MENA troubles. Is this one of the new safe havens?

CYB China ETF (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=down (2 bars)
low= 25.14
rev= 25.81; mid= 25.48

Saviors of the world economy? As you can see it has been stuck in a very tight trading range since Dec 2010. It has yet to test its weekly 3LB mid since reversing down in Nov 2010. I'd watch this with binoculars.

Nikkei (weekly info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
low= 10526.76
rev= 10842.80; mid= 10566.21

Japan is not doing too well either. Currently it is below its weekly 3LB mid and is also making a confirming low on the weekly chart. BANZAI!!!

Bear: "You want a piece of me? Come get some!"

267 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 267 of 267 Newer› Newest»

karen said...: here is the hot money stock tweeted about.. just spiked on crude i think.. so funny.. ROYL.. why bother with USO, more bang for your buck right there and no K-1..; March 10, 2011 at 2:05 PM
karen said...: $trin chart.. http://twitpic.com/439w4h; March 10, 2011 at 2:06 PM
karen said...: Ed Bradford
I know its just a coincidence, but the Saudi shooting happened right after the long bond auction.; March 10, 2011 at 2:07 PM
ben22 said...: there is no coincidence

social mood bitches

it's a global thang; March 10, 2011 at 2:08 PM
ben22 said...: these all the same markets days are so 2008; March 10, 2011 at 2:10 PM
I-Man said...: Happened right as we turned lower to take out the death line too...

Coincidence? Sure... pfft.; March 10, 2011 at 2:11 PM
Jennifer said...: I lubed 2008; March 10, 2011 at 2:11 PM
I-Man said...: This next one is going to be fun to watch...; March 10, 2011 at 2:12 PM
CV said...: @ben (1:02)

It has been pretty well documented that JPM acquired a huge chunk of "silver shorts" when it took over Bear Stearns book...

I 'm not like you that saves every scrap of research so that one day when somebody asks me to "prove it" out of the blue, I can whip it out and say "AHA!"...

I've just seen (and read) volumes about this over quite a long period of time now...

---

Those who question the notion like to label you as a "conspiracy theorist"... That's fine, but the ironic thing about conspiracy theories is that in the fullness of time, they often turn out to be correct...

Take 9/11 for instance...

•The government spent $175 million investigating the Challenger space shuttle disaster.
•It spent $152 million on the the Columbia disaster investigation.
•It spent $30 million investigating the Monica Lewinsky scandal.
•But the government only authorized $15 million for the 9/11 Commission.

Go ahead and call CV a "fool" for scratching my head and wondering about that...

& call me a fool for at least ACKNOWLEDGING the possibility that the JPM paper manipulation 'theories' might be correct...

---

Oftentimes, I've found it's OK to act on gut instinct...

Then again - others seem to want "CERTAINTY" (like the guy at the end of this article)...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/2-years-after-market-low-the-apf-2492075628.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=#mwpphu-container

There are plenty of investors still looking for an opportunity to get back in. Kenneth Kracmer, who owns a marketing firm in Dallas, is restless after cutting his stock allocation by half, to 30 percent.

But he worries about unemployment, state governments in financial distress and a market he sees as artificially high in view of all the challenging economic news.

Other investors are clearly on edge, too. Before Tuesday, the market had fallen nearly 3 percent in two and a half weeks because of concerns about unrest in the Middle East.

"I want to play it smart until there's a little bit of economic certainty," Kracmer says. "I don't want to get in just before another drop."

"Economic Certainty" - ror!

---

I suppose you're right though... I think tomorrow I should go out and get rid of the land, sell all the food, and move to an apartment in the city because there's no CERTAINTY that there are dark clouds on the horizon...

I must be a FOOL to be acting on INSTINCT!; March 10, 2011 at 2:15 PM
ben22 said...: CV,

the comment wasn't to imply that you should 'sell the farm' but that most of the stories being told about JPM's book are being done by outsiders with no clue what they are talking about, they are all so sensational, you really think JPM would be so foolish as some people are claiming?

Maybe they are correct, I never said that they weren't, but I'm not about to place the raging bets i see posters on ZH making because they just "know for sure" that JPM is whatever....; March 10, 2011 at 2:28 PM
CV said...: @ben22

I actually wrote quite a long comment on one of the threads here the other day outlining MY OWN theory on what JPM might be doing (and why)...

It basically went completely against the grain of the stories you are 'alluding' to...

I won't force you to DIG UP all the stories you are 'alluding' to (I'll take you at your word that you've read them too)...

I will force you to DIG up my own COCKAMAMEY theory on the subject... I posted it one day this week(so you shouldn't have to search too far to find it)...; March 10, 2011 at 2:35 PM
Jennifer said...: + 1000 tick and its time for me to go. Sigh. Later, traders. Keep it under 1305 for me :-); March 10, 2011 at 2:38 PM
karen said...: $sox.. i'm getting more confused every minute.; March 10, 2011 at 2:39 PM
ben22 said...: CV,

Kid Dynamite had a post maybe a month ago going through the actual book for JPM, if people think they are still sitting on whatever they got from Bear they should do a little homework,.....they aren't.

My personal opinion is that I could really care less about JPM and what they are trading, don't take that personal if you or anyone else wants to come up with a theory more power to you, but you know I don't get into this kind of stuff.; March 10, 2011 at 2:40 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/February-federal-budget-apf-1010393433.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

February federal budget deficit sets record

Federal budget deficit hits all-time monthly high of $222.5 billion in February

...If our debt is downgraded, I simply would not be surprised...we are making NO serious efforts to rein this in..; March 10, 2011 at 2:41 PM
CV said...: ...and frankly - to cut to the CHASE...

My 'stance' on this whole thing is what I've been saying for the better part of 8 moths now...

- We're going to QE to infinity (which will bring about system collapse through 'loss of faith' in the value of the dollar)

- or, we're going to default

BOTH lead to the same endgame

I frankly believe the path that has been 'selected' will be the QE approach (with bouts of AUSTERITY peppered in - we may be seeing the beginning of one now)...

But each successive "stick save" will have a shorter halflife... And the bottom line is... FIAT is doomed... (notice I didn't say the dollar is doomed - ALL fiat is doomed)...

So all the giddy dollar bulls better spend 'em while they're hot if the DXY rallies here...; March 10, 2011 at 2:42 PM
CV said...: "My personal opinion is that I could really care less about JPM and what they are trading"

---

Come on man... That's about as disingenuous a statement as I've ever heard from someone like you... Let's see...

- You'd be interested to see Neely's book
- You'd be interested to see Prechters book
(I'm speaking theoretically here)
- You're interested in what Bill Gross might own (or not)
- But NAW, JPM (or Goldman), not the slightest bit of curiosity...; March 10, 2011 at 2:47 PM
ben22 said...: CV,

The only logical thing if the dollar goes under is that all fiat would, it's basic math, dollars comprise something like 85% of all global transactions, there isn't some other fiat that's going to step in and fill that void if the dollar is gone.

Also, I can count all the giddy dollar bulls on one hand, ROR, I'm pretty sure half of them might be here.; March 10, 2011 at 2:48 PM
AmenRa said...: $ Vol Net for SPX, NYSE, NASDAQ is still very negative.; March 10, 2011 at 2:49 PM
karen said...: i'm sure you'll all join me on twitter soon.. here are the basics:

http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2011/03/the-bare-bones-guide-to-twitter/72283/; March 10, 2011 at 2:51 PM
ben22 said...: CV,

really?, a prop trading desk and people that perform technical analysis with a theory that few people dedicate time to are one in the same and I "should" take equal interest in them?

I'm interested in what Bill Gross owns because I have tens of millions of dollars in his fund, so I'm sure you could understand why it would matter to me.

I don't have millions of clients money in ZSL, or any client money in there for that matter, so like I said, I could care less about all these JPM stories, it's not disingenuous, nobody can control a market, not JPM, not Bernanke, not anyone, so when all these people out there claim a bunch of bullshit like "JPM has depressed the price of silver for 15 years" I hit the ignore button.; March 10, 2011 at 2:53 PM
I-Man said...: very spooky how the volume has dried up...

makes me think this last hour is going to be epic.; March 10, 2011 at 2:53 PM
ben22 said...: and lets not start to get the convo all twisted,

"But NAW, JPM (or Goldman), not the slightest bit of curiosity..."

my comment was specifically about them and what people say about their silver positions

I stand by my comments, all of them.; March 10, 2011 at 2:54 PM
karen said...: but i tell you it's a mob scene.. just got a retweet from someone in saudi that said that report of shots fired at demonstrators was bogus..

it's rumour city.. the market will be immune to it in no time.; March 10, 2011 at 2:54 PM
karen said...: Douglas Kass
the end of the trend http://www.thestreet.com/story/11038582/1/kass-the-end-of-the-trend.html; March 10, 2011 at 2:55 PM
CV said...: "The only logical thing if the dollar goes under is that all fiat would, it's basic math, dollars comprise something like 85% of all global transactions, there isn't some other fiat that's going to step in and fill that void if the dollar is gone."

---

Well I'd pretty much say that we'd all still be calling ourselves Romans & using "Aureus & denarius" to transact unless Rome failed to pay its bills, & lost it's ability to tax & plunder...

"We could not maintain the gold standard, nor the silver standard.

We could not maintain the copper standard.

And now, we cannot even maintain the zinc standard.

–Ron Paul"; March 10, 2011 at 2:56 PM
CV said...: ...but the PAPER standard is tried & true! - ror; March 10, 2011 at 2:57 PM
karen said...: sorry.. i couldn't get into that twitter article at all.. i wouldn't bother with it. sorry i even posted it!

LB left some new posts at macro man if you want to read them.; March 10, 2011 at 2:58 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110310/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_saudi_protests?sec=topStories&pos=6&asset=&ccode=

by SARAH EL DEEB, Associated Press Sarah El Deeb, Associated Press – 11 mins ago
CAIRO – Saudi police opened fire Thursday to disperse a protest in the mainly Shiite east, leaving at least one man injured, as the government struggled to prevent a wave of unrest sweeping the Arab world from reaching the kingdom.

The rare violence raised concern about a crackdown ahead of more planned protests after Friday prayers in different cities throughout the oil-rich kingdom. The pro-Western monarchy is concerned protests could open footholds for Shiite powerhouse Iran and has accused foreigners of stoking the protests, which are officially forbidden.; March 10, 2011 at 3:01 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-10/bank-of-spain-says-12-lenders-need-21-billion-more-to-meet-capital-rules.html

Bank of Spain Says 12 Lenders Need to Raise $21 Billion or Risk Takeover; March 10, 2011 at 3:05 PM
karen said...: since financials are not oversold, there is still room for the market to fall tomorrow if it wanted to. just sayn'; March 10, 2011 at 3:06 PM
CV said...: nobody can control a market, not JPM, not Bernanke, not anyone, so when all these people out there claim a bunch of bullshit like "JPM has depressed the price of silver for 15 years" I hit the ignore button.

Don't get me wrong... I agree with you there "nobody can control a market" [though I'd add OVER TIME to that thesis - as I think it can be bent & deflected from time to time - and the DURATIONS of those warps are BEYOND human tolerance for acting in their own best interests]...

But as for me... I don't "hit the IGNORE" button on things... While I understand your likely "context" in saying that that specifically applies to your relative dearth of paper silver in the portfolios you manage... I UNDERSTAND THAT...

But what I'm saying as well, is that CV's approach to things is to NEVER hit the IGNORE button...

- I'd prefer KNOWING if people are lying to me or not... It alters my behavior... I want to know who shot JFK, or whether 9/11 was an inside job, I want to know if there are Bilderberg groups out there trying to produce information & disinformation...

While it may not enhance my ECONOMIC prospects in the future... It DOES achieve something of greater importance...

It lets me know that I am TRULY FREE... Only 'slaves' are ignorant...; March 10, 2011 at 3:07 PM
karen said...: i guess i'm the only one that freaks out that the %s in the 3 main indices are so close every minute of this day.. usually 2 are exact and the other one is off by less than .05%; March 10, 2011 at 3:08 PM
CV said...: so just because I may agree or disagree with a POV of someone, that should not read that I just go around 'parroting' all their thoughts...

You ought to know me better than that by now...; March 10, 2011 at 3:11 PM
ben22 said...: CV,

a few more points and I'm moving on, too much going on in the paper markets right now....

1. I can't read and pay attention to everything, I have to ignore some things.

2. I own physical silver, some of which I'm now storing overseas, and I don't plan on ever getting rid of it.

3. You can't prove if JPM is lying to you or not. I want to know the answers to everything under the sun as well, but nobody gets the satisfaction in life of knowing everything. I don't find that realization to make me less free nor do.

4. When people make bold statements and present them as facts, as many have done with this JPM silver stuff, I usually ask for some sort of proof, if it can't be provided, that's pretty telling in most cases in my mind. others a free to interpret these things as they wish.

Like I said earlier, all that I asked you was if you had any information on their positions, there was nothing else implied in what I asked you.; March 10, 2011 at 3:15 PM
CV said...: gotta go... see u peeps later; March 10, 2011 at 3:17 PM
CV said...: "all that I asked you was if you had any information on their positions"

---

I could tell you... But I'd have to KILL you... (and of course that would be AFTER to got sentenced in an insider trading racket)... :-); March 10, 2011 at 3:21 PM
AmenRa said...: These last 40 min hsould be good. "The fight for 55" available now.; March 10, 2011 at 3:23 PM
ben22 said...: dude, you know I already have the black heli's swinging by the office a few days a week

c'mon man!

now, if you can hook up an intro to Blythe, I might be interested...; March 10, 2011 at 3:23 PM
karen said...: ReutersBreakingNews
Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi and his camp must leave to end killing - Franco-British joint statement; March 10, 2011 at 3:28 PM
I-Man said...: snuggling up to the death line again...

can they hold it?; March 10, 2011 at 3:31 PM
I-Man said...: cmon market... spit them out; March 10, 2011 at 3:33 PM
karen said...: TBT nearing low of day.. might make a new one.. 37.66; March 10, 2011 at 3:33 PM
karen said...: no FAZ breakout..; March 10, 2011 at 3:34 PM
I-Man said...: bunch of tape fightin bitches they are...; March 10, 2011 at 3:39 PM
ben22 said...: we peak out here below 1301 cash and we've got a ......yep, descending triangle

still time for that to play out before 4.; March 10, 2011 at 3:42 PM
karen said...: ben.. do you think we will slice thru the 50 tomorrow or bounce.. twitter traders think it's easy bounce.. even the bearish ones.; March 10, 2011 at 3:44 PM
karen said...: i think it's time for pavlov's dogs to learn a new trick.; March 10, 2011 at 3:46 PM
karen said...: i missed it! GS did break $160.. $159.99..

oh, well, better luck tomorrow perhaps.. : ); March 10, 2011 at 3:49 PM
ben22 said...: Karen,

two days ago most traders I know of said it was easy to see the triangle would resolve to the upside.

No...I'm with AT, 1275, next stop, bottom of the c wave there, small bounce in wave d and if the market serves that up I'll be adding to shorts right there, then a drop in e to the 1220's....that move alternates with the correction we had from January 2010 to February 2010, our other X wave, which was shallow.

If this is how it plays I'm long at 1220, staying pretty ninja all around though.; March 10, 2011 at 3:49 PM
ben22 said...: market personality speculation......if that is another triangle:

orders were in at 1295 to buy...but sellers are getting more anxious to get out.

The one's that didn't sell at 1305 sold at 1301, the ones that didn't sell at 1301 want out now

all the patterns tell a story....

when the horizontal line is on the top then you've got big players distributing.; March 10, 2011 at 3:51 PM
karen said...: 1275 very do-able tomorrow.. oops.. just found someone else that agreed: Scott Bleier
$$ After a false open, it could get ugly tomorrow. Or to $SPX 1275.; March 10, 2011 at 3:53 PM
AmenRa said...: Alright already! Will they please pull away from SMA(55). Make a damn decision.; March 10, 2011 at 3:54 PM
I-Man said...: they're going to drop it early in the AH just like they did yesterday...

Damn cheaters.; March 10, 2011 at 3:55 PM
AmenRa said...: If they take out todays low there may be a mini flash crash. Just sayin'; March 10, 2011 at 3:55 PM
karen said...: ReutersBreakingNews
Gulf ministers say Libyan regime has lost its legitimacy - official UAE news agency; March 10, 2011 at 3:57 PM
ben22 said...: isn't that the guy that was saying markets were rigged a few weeks ago toward the top, Scott Bleier?

I guess they are unrigged now?

that doesn't make me sleep easy if he agrees with us.

If we go down tomorrow you already know all the headlines in your Saturday paper right?

"Markets down on unrest in Saudi, Middle East, Oil"

and so it goes.....; March 10, 2011 at 3:58 PM
karen said...: ben at 3:51.. perfect.; March 10, 2011 at 3:58 PM
karen said...: Ben, yes, same fellow, laughing.. i knew you would catch that.; March 10, 2011 at 4:03 PM
ben22 said...: alright all

same bat time, same bat channel tomorrow

see you then; March 10, 2011 at 4:05 PM
I-Man said...: He's the guy who is going to be hawking his fancy monitors to the I-Man when he blows up his trading money.; March 10, 2011 at 4:07 PM
I-Man said...: I'm sure you're an OK guy tho, Scott Bleier. We just like to give you shit because we like Karen so much.; March 10, 2011 at 4:19 PM
I-Man said...: Kinda early... but its 4:20 somewhere...; March 10, 2011 at 4:20 PM
bob said...: Great game on espn3 now, SU vs St J.; March 10, 2011 at 4:31 PM
AmenRa said...: I-Man

NYC and DC. Post market chill sessions.; March 10, 2011 at 4:35 PM
bob said...: I the time stamp proves you right...; March 10, 2011 at 4:37 PM
I-Man said...: I gotta say today was kinda frustrating for the I...

"Gap and DUMP" is hard to play.; March 10, 2011 at 4:44 PM

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This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.

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Morning Corner 3.10.11

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