TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Corner 2.4.11

Morning Corner 2.4.11

10 Yr Note (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=down
low= 119.594
rev= 123.578; mid= 121.586

This week is forming a bearish engulfing candle. In an uptrend this would be seen as a reversal. If in a trading range then I'll say the decision on direction has been made. With the 10yr and 30yr yields increasing something will have to happen to get traders to start buying bonds. If not then mortgage rates increase and homes sales are history. There goes what little "recovery" we had.

30 Yr Bond (weekly info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=down
low= 120.094
rev= 121.594; mid= 120.875

We are now below the 50% retrace and about to break below SMA(89). The Bernank needs to stop speaking. Every utterance sends the bonds lower. Or is it a subtle way of letting The Bernank know that he does not have things under control.

S&P TMI (weekly info)
-no change (below mid)
trend=up
high= 1474.83
rev= 1416.57; mid= 1445.70

This is the S&P Total Market Index. It's made up of the S&P 500 and S&P Completion Index. I think of it as the S&P version of the Wilshire 5k. Last week formed a gravestone doji indicating it did not want to go lower. This week has confirmed the candle. The gravestone doji is usually a reversal candle in a downtrend. Since we were in a small range it acts as the absolute floor for the range. That's until it gets taken out.

The Bernank must really "Believe the Lie"

247 comments:

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CV said...: @Jennifer

Sounds worth trying...

At first blush... My mind says the FRESH aspect of having the pears & melted cheese (together witrh some bitter greens) would be better on a PIZZA, than "cooked" into tortellini...

I'd have to try...

Tortellini - or the version I prefer "cappeletti" (similar, but different)... I think is best when done very simple with meats & cheeses...

Man- I'm getting hungry now!; February 4, 2011 at 3:02 PM
Anonymous said...: We are still holding 9% of JNK at a 8.98% yield.
TLT is now 4.41% and LQD at 4.91%, AGG is 3.53%, TIP 2.5%.; February 4, 2011 at 3:04 PM
CV said...: @Amen

off the top of my head, I'd go with the CRAFTSMAN...

Doesn't SEARS sell them? (not a swipe - just a recollection)...

When you're down to a few models (that have the right components & muscle)... then all you have to do is check the WARRANTY offers...; February 4, 2011 at 3:04 PM
CV said...: Gotta go peeps...

I'll have the Super Bowl Thread up tomorrow Amen...

Later Traders!; February 4, 2011 at 3:05 PM
Yield Hog said...: We like yield. DVY 3.37%.

NAZZY - 0.63%. But you get "growth", ROR.; February 4, 2011 at 3:05 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Bruce's enjoyment of the bond sell-off was entirely too gleeful.
Reminds me of the days of yore, near the LB Bottom™.

What happened to that guy, anyway?; February 4, 2011 at 3:07 PM
karen said...: CV, pls make mine with an extra thin crust! yum.. my mouth is watering for arugula, now.; February 4, 2011 at 3:07 PM
CV said...: @Amen

Toss ol Eddie Lampert a bone... ROR :-); February 4, 2011 at 3:08 PM
Anonymous said...: I'm very familiar with snow and snow blowers, we get tons of it here. Look around in the spring/ summer for a used one. The older ones are built much better, even if they don't look so great, true American steel. None of those "safety features" either, watch out for your arms. 8hp will move anything.

The newer ones are a lot lighter gauge steel. You want weight on those things, momentum. The thinner steel rusts away quicker, they all rust, there is nothing you can do about that.

For an occasional storm, the "snow throwers" with an electric motor are actually pretty good, and easier to handle.; February 4, 2011 at 3:09 PM
CV said...: @karen

x-tra thin... way to go...

But LB is going to have to take care of your "mouth watering" needs for the rest of the day...

Now... REALLY... gotta go!; February 4, 2011 at 3:10 PM
AmenRa said...: Hey can't have a wimpy snow blower. I want the snow to beg for mercy when it sees me coming.; February 4, 2011 at 3:19 PM
Anonymous said...: But LB is going to have to take care of your "mouth watering" needs for the rest of the day...

That really is an invitation. But we have way too much class to...

ROR.; February 4, 2011 at 3:21 PM
Helicopter Ben said...: Japan's QE never took the world to the brink of starvation, did it?

See, I am THE SPECIAL ONE.; February 4, 2011 at 3:22 PM
Paul Krugman said...: That's right, Ben.

Don't Stop the Drop, Mr Wizard.
Keep the chopper over my condo building.
Don't waste any on the American people.; February 4, 2011 at 3:24 PM
Paul Tudor Jones said...: "I'm always thinking about losing money as opposed to making money. Don't focus on making money, focus on protecting what you have"; February 4, 2011 at 3:25 PM
Anonymous said...: Berlusconi Lawyers Try to Block Release of Nude Photos

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-04/berlusconi-s-lawyers-move-to-block-release-of-nude-photos.html

Berlusconi’s lawyers, Niccolo Ghedini and Piero Longo...; February 4, 2011 at 3:33 PM
I-Man said...: Good to see ya, Paul...

Now, how about that job?

If I can out box you, I'm in, right?; February 4, 2011 at 3:35 PM
I-Man said...: BTW, PTJ is a duckhunter too...

And a mean boxer.; February 4, 2011 at 3:36 PM
Anonymous said...: The real hanson brothers, boxers-

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5i_D6oQO6b8; February 4, 2011 at 3:37 PM
Paul Tudor Jones said...: You will make it to the Big Time, the I-Man.
We are keeping your chair warm.; February 4, 2011 at 3:44 PM
Marc Faber said...: Trezhareez are a soo-eee-sid-ell infestment.

Ze dollahr vill bekom VURTHLEZZ.; February 4, 2011 at 3:45 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Marc is actually quite good at calling turns at extremes.
If he gets bullish Bucky and Ts, watch out.; February 4, 2011 at 3:46 PM
Anonymous said...: We don't have blood in the streets but the fixed income markets are like an abbatoir this week. You really have to be buying. In size.; February 4, 2011 at 3:47 PM
Andy T said...: Just another ho-hummer day. Houston will move out of Ice-ville by tomorrow. Pretty jazzed about the wx clearing up a bit for Super Bowl Sunday.

We've got a friend who hosts a big outdoor party every year.

He heats up his pool (for a few days) and we have propane heaters out there....big movie screen projector outside. It's really "eco-friendly" of him to just blow through natty gas in such a manner. Just another "Red Neck Elitist" here in Texas attempting to destroy the planet and not care. Ha.; February 4, 2011 at 3:47 PM
Anonymous said...: I've watched Marc a few times lately, he is bullish $ and T's "for the short term"; February 4, 2011 at 3:48 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Our chaps have already been in and done the necessary.

Holding large amounts of cash through January was difficult, but I think we will be rewarded.

We are bringing another 10% pile of Wonga™ on next week. Once our Treasury positions get very large, the need for significant rate risk and pre-auction hedging will arise once more.; February 4, 2011 at 3:49 PM
I-Man said...: Damn that was fun...

Have a good weekend, all.; February 4, 2011 at 3:50 PM
I-Man said...: We hit the target to the tick, and managed to sit through some retracements that normally would have scared I and I...; February 4, 2011 at 3:51 PM
Anonymous said...: I've watched Marc a few times lately, he is bullish $ and T's "for the short term"

Like about two months is what we are thinking, maybe longer. We have the Irish election problem, more Euro debt rollover issues, inflation in Asia, quite a few reasons for a FTQ.; February 4, 2011 at 3:52 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Later I-

Cool runnin...; February 4, 2011 at 3:53 PM
Cold Steel said...: You knew there would be a ramp, right?; February 4, 2011 at 3:53 PM
Everyone's Ex-Girlfriend said...: I kno, right?; February 4, 2011 at 3:54 PM
Bucky the Talking Currency said...: I am showing signs of life despite the joke jobs report.; February 4, 2011 at 3:55 PM
EPI said...: I am less appetizing than a stale papadum or a wet chapati.

Off 2% today, despite your Wizard and his Helicopter.; February 4, 2011 at 3:59 PM
Mr Bond said...: Is it over yet?; February 4, 2011 at 4:00 PM
karen said...: It is over! Sayonara all!; February 4, 2011 at 4:03 PM
Goldfinger said...: Was it good for you too, Mr Bond?; February 4, 2011 at 4:04 PM
Bruce in Tennessee said...: I'm back and disappointed..Karen did not stick Lefty in the eye once while rates continue to ramp up...what kind of fun is that?

...Besides, we know that he will sweat buckets and by the middle of next week will make more money than J. Paulson every thought of when working Icelanders buy buckets of treasuries just to give the raspberry to big English banks.

...Bought groceries with my wife this afternoon...the most depressing thing was the number of gray heads checking or bagging...incredible.; February 4, 2011 at 4:08 PM
Anonymous said...: http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=TLT&ql=1

LAST @ 88.82

for all the wailing, and gnashing of teeth, one would have thougn the Long Bond traded @ 0, and was carried out on a stretcher..

AAIP; February 4, 2011 at 4:34 PM
Anonymous said...: "the most depressing thing was the number of gray heads checking or bagging...incredible.

gotta be able to put catfood on the table. SNAP buys less these days. And the local supermarket isn't honoring those M3 discount chart/coupons that I'm trying to impress them with.; February 4, 2011 at 4:39 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: The Bond Report 2.4.11 - The Dash for Trash

Well, we have talked about the possibility that we would see an 88 handle on TLT, and here it is. If there was carnage at the long end, the rest of the curve was almost as bad. It was like an abbatoir in Ts.

But there was a clear difference between today and yesterday, when all FI was being tossed out the window in a sort of bond capitulation. Today, credit investors were snapping up HY and dodgy munis at the expense of IG, MBS and lower yielding munis.

Corpies: LQD -0.31%; AGG -0.34%; JNK 0.37%; HYG 0.44%
Govies: TLT -1.01%; IEI -0.42%; TIP -0.56%
Munis: IQI 0.77%; MUB -0.24%
Mortgages: MBB -0.18%
Hedgies: TBT 2.00%

It was a good day for our junk (smirk) but not for the rest. In fact we had a bit of a Cold Steel day. We noted the blood on the floor, and added another 6% to our fixed income today, adding 1% of TLT and 5% of AGG. So we are now:

AGG 20% TIP 5% TLT 9.5% JNK 9% LQD 4.5% (48% total)

We are still long US equities 15% and short EMs 19%.
Cash is Trash here now that the bond "bubble" has unwound.; February 4, 2011 at 4:44 PM
Anonymous said...: ROFR !!!

This is a favorite joke on the Macro Man blog:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-04/u-s-treasury-declines-to-name-china-a-currency-manipulator-as-yuan-rises.html; February 4, 2011 at 4:56 PM
Anonymous said...: then there's this..

The Youth Unemployment Bomb
February 4th, 2011

Via: Business Week:

In Tunisia, the young people who helped bring down a dictator are called hittistes—French-Arabic slang for those who lean against the wall. Their counterparts in Egypt, who on Feb. 1 forced President Hosni Mubarak to say he won’t seek reelection, are the shabab atileen, unemployed youths. The hittistes and shabab have brothers and sisters across the globe. In Britain, they are NEETs—”not in education, employment, or training.” In Japan, they are freeters: an amalgam of the English word freelance and the German word Arbeiter, or worker. Spaniards call them mileuristas, meaning they earn no more than 1,000 euros a month. In the U.S., they’re “boomerang” kids who move back home after college because they can’t find work. Even fast-growing China, where labor shortages are more common than surpluses, has its “ant tribe”—recent college graduates who crowd together in cheap flats on the fringes of big cities because they can’t find well-paying work....
http://cryptogon.com/?p=20370

ibid.; February 4, 2011 at 5:10 PM
BinT said...: What does Jim the Realtor think about Cal. real estate with mortgage rates rising?

...Might be of more than academic interst..; February 4, 2011 at 5:11 PM
Anonymous said...: @16:39

"...And the local supermarket isn't honoring those M3 discount chart/coupons that I'm trying to impress them with..."

lol, now, isn't that a f****** shock~

ibid.; February 4, 2011 at 5:14 PM
Anonymous said...: BinT,

California Cities Top Most Miserable List
February 4th, 2011

Via: Reuters:

If the saying “as goes California, so goes the nation” still rings true, then Americans are facing a depressing future, according to a list of the country’s most miserable cities.

Ravaged by falling house prices, high unemployment, a massive budget deficit, rampant crime and high state taxes, California filled four of the top five spots in the Forbes list of unhappy urban areas.

Stockton, in the state’s Central Valley, topped the list, followed by Miami, in Florida, Merced, Modesto and Sacramento — all in California.

Posted in Collapse, Economy | Top Of Page
http://cryptogon.com/?p=20366; February 4, 2011 at 5:27 PM
Super Bowl Commercials 2012 said...: Interesting one. Thanks for the share.; January 30, 2012 at 4:45 AM

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This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.

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Morning Corner 2.4.11

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