AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.


Note to Bears...stop sending cubs to fight with a seasoned Bull.


Creditcane™: I was forced to tap out. Thank you NFP for being so bad that everyone wanted to discredit you.



SPX
Bullish short day. It also looks like a hammer but tail is too short. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Made a new 0.0% retrace. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1276.34). QE2infinity.



DXY
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above the 14.6% retrace (77.54). Still below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 78.13).



VIX
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 17.63). Still out of the "no fear" zone. Currently has a monthly 3LB reversal.



GOLD
Spinning top day (which also formed a bearish thrusting). Midpoint above EMA(10). 0.0% retrace holding. Held above the upper trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1319.80). Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Approaching 1.3506 (the 50% retrace). Still above all SMA's. Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 1.3813).



JNK
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Closed above its 50% retrace (40.47). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 39.63).




10YR YIELD
Bullish long day. Made a new 0.0% retrace at 36.66. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 34.55). It doesn't stop at 36.00 so The Bernank is having a sleepless weekend.



TLT
Bearish long day (failed to confirm inverted hammer). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. Way below lower trend line. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 90.80). Currently has a monthly 3LB reversal (down).



EEM
Bearish short day (also forming a rising three method pattern). Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's except the SMA(144). Held its 23.6% retrace (46.42). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 47.25).



EGPT
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below all SMA's. Back below its 50.0% retrace (18.26) of the recent down move. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 16.22). Now, what happens when the Egyptian market reopens?



S&P TMI
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Held lower trendline. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1445.10). TMI (total market index)= S&P 500 + S&P Completion Index.



LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Bond Report 2.4.11 - The Dash for Trash

Well, we have talked about the possibility that we would see an 88 handle on TLT, and here it is. If there was carnage at the long end, the rest of the curve was almost as bad. It was like an abbatoir in Ts.

But there was a clear difference between today and yesterday, when all FI was being tossed out the window in a sort of bond capitulation. Today, credit investors were snapping up HY and dodgy munis at the expense of IG, MBS and lower yielding munis.

Corpies: LQD -0.31%; AGG -0.34%; JNK 0.37%; HYG 0.44%
Govies: TLT -1.01%; IEI -0.42%; TIP -0.56%
Munis: IQI 0.77%; MUB -0.24%
Mortgages: MBB -0.18%
Hedgies: TBT 2.00%

It was a good day for our junk (smirk) but not for the rest. In fact we had a bit of a Cold Steel day. We noted the blood on the floor, and added another 6% to our fixed income today, adding 1% of TLT and 5% of AGG. So we are now:

AGG 20% TIP 5% TLT 9.5% JNK 9% LQD 4.5% (48% total)

We are still long US equities 15% and short EMs 19%.
Cash is Trash here now that the bond "bubble" has unwound.


12 comments:

I-Man said...

How sad is it that I-Man couldnt even make it 2hrs after a Friday close before wanting to look at charts again?

Sick I say... demented.

I-Man said...

3hrs...

See? Its killing the I.

CV said...

Even sicker that CV "easily" made it 3 hrs. today, yesterday, & most days this week & last spending 3 hour stretches not even looking at charts during TRADING HOURS!!!!

When is that SUPERBOWL thing again?

Sunday?

CV still fondly remembers his days as a PAPERBOY... Delivering the Sunday paper, pulling my red wagon in the FRIGID darkness of winter Sunday mornings, actually "making up" a tune and lyrics to a mythical song called SUPER SUNDAY...

This is a TRUE story [and don't bother GOOGLEing it, because there probably isn't a historical reference to any song or lyrics by that title (to my knowledge)]...

Let's just say that the ROMAN NUMERALS required to identify the Superbowl of my choice, at the time of that story & composition, were LESS THAN the NUMBER "X"

18 said...

hey I!, you aren't the only one but I don't have the time during the day to look at charts :((

18's hourly, daily and weekly indicators on the SPX are all positive-up. (from a choice of... positive-up, positive-down, negative-up and negative-down)

AmenRa said...

I-Man

Don't feel bad. I do it too.

Anonymous said...

@cv, I was a paperboy in those same days, but I only had about 50 papers on my route so I didn't need a wagon. Froze my ass off on Sunday mornings, I did..

karen said...

I am super sick, too.. hey, we're junkies.

Thankfully, or sadly, I can't share the am. football addiction with you all as well.

I was only a substitute paper boy for a very sweet boy that liked me in elementary school.. but i did have to ring bells or knock on doors and ask for money on that route from time to time.. i think his name was eric burkhardt.. i wouldn't be surprised if he was a multi-millionaire..

CV said...

The guy that was my "substitute" paperboy (and to whom I eventually gave my route up to was none other than Randy Pausch...

The guy who became nationally famous a few years back in his publicized battle with pancreatic cancer...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Randy_Pausch

We used to play chess a lot (he would beat me about 9 times out of 10)... But I was the "sports guy" and would beat him at the sports he could play (like golf and tennis)...

What was cool about him was that he was kind of nerdy, but competitive as hell... Therefore, he wouldn't want me to "play easy" (which was all that was needed to really beat him)... Likewise, I 'm sure he never really gave me any breaks on the chess board... I pretty much knew I was likely to lose, but every once in awhile (probably when he was busy figuring out a new board strategy for himself), I managed to exploit a weakness... He was playing the board... I was playing him...

He played #1 board on the HS chess team...

We weren't really best friends in HS (cause we hung out with different crowds)... Our curious friendship had different facets... We loved football, and handicapping... Every week we used to take the point spreads and we'd take turns taking one side or another on the whole spread of college and pro games... Just and overall list... Sometimes we'd make an actually money bet on a game or two (using the paper route profits as collateral)... I'll never forget how STUPID I was one year giving him Northwestern and, like 72 points against The Woody Hayes led Ohio State... That taught me an early lesson about "laying" points...

I knew him even before high school... We were both in this advanced placement math summer school course... So before classes that summer, we used to play tennis at the courts near the school, then actually walk over to the "Fun Putt" miniature golf course (which was closed that early in the morning), jump the fence, and actually play 18 holes "putting" with our tennis rackets... I think I set the course record one time with an old Rod Laver wooden racket...ROR

In the months before Randy died, he became very famous nationally... He was a huge Pittsburgh Steelers fan, and the Steelers invited him to romp around at one of their training camps...

So with that lead in...

I'll have the Super Bowl thread up in a few hours...

CV

CV said...

Oh yeah...

And I used to look after their family "cats" when they were on vacation...

Never minded tht job because they had a pool table in the basement, and I used to raid their pantry of "Scooter Pies" :-)

Anonymous said...

http://www.thedividendguyblog.com/dividend-roundup-time-2/

Super Bowl 2012 said...

Excellent pieces. Keep posting such kind of information on your blog. I really impressed by your blog.
Super Bowl Commercials 2012

Anonymous said...

Does anyone know the name of the bear v. bull painting at the top and who painted it? Thanks.

Post a Comment

Disclosure/Warning

This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.