Morning Corner 2.3.11

Shanghai Composite (weekly info)
-no change
trend=down
low= 2715.29
rev= 2842.43; mid= 2778.86



Starting to turn bullish as it has closed above the weekly 3LB mid so far this week. Not sure why since their government economic reports are as manipulated as ours. We may have built more homes than needed but they have built cities that aren't occupied.


Year of the Rabbit

Egypt Compilation of the day (re-shuffle your i-POD's)


310 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   201 – 310 of 310   Newer›   Newest»
karen said...

tulving is running a sale.. you can buy at spot!

http://www.tulving.com/goldbull.html

CV said...

REALITY is Cheerios cost more today than they did in 2007...

And I make the same amount of money... Good thing I don't buy Cheerios...

The Long Bond said...

4.66%...!!!

YOU KNOW YOU WANT ME.....

The Bond Market said...

Show off.

karen said...

that pennant needs a gust of wind from somewhere..

karen said...

Ben, A Day in the Life of a Financial Advisor:

http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/7743951/

I-Man said...

We need it to square out, and every time it gets close, someone gets ancy and messes it up.

The only time we get sloppy like this is when there is too much money stalking the move.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

But what if people don't want you at 4.66?

..Then what?

ben22 said...

Karen,

this video is fairly accurate.

I-Man said...

LOL, the guy I used to work for emailed me that yesterday morning.

ben22 said...

CV,

You are right, I wasn't alive during the 70's, but it's not relevant anyway. Do you see a decline in the M3 chart like we see now in the 1970's? I don't. That's when it just started to go parabolic.

Here's another thing, food prices could plummet and people still won't be able to afford them, just like during the depression. In late 2008 and early 09 lots of people weren't all of the sudden on easy street because gas and other commodity prices got destroyed.

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

I will have to watch that later.

karen said...

but Ben, was it so accurate that you didn't burst out laughing at the last line?! don't you just wish you could say that sometimes?

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

Yield Watchers anonymous presents:

LQD 4.88%
Long Bond 4.66%
AGG 3.51%
DOW 2.42%
The Five Year 2.16%
SPY 1.74%
EEM 1.39%
IWM 1.13%
NAZZ 0.63%

karen said...

anyone have a link to the santelli cnbc link ? he's ranting about what Bernanke doesn't get.. the markets..

ben22 said...

the Fees thing is spot on, most people want you to work for free, but that's a lot of things that are like that, everyone wants something for nothing. Suze Orman thing was also hilarious.

I had it out with an uncle over the holidays about this when he gave me the snide remark of

"you make money off other people's money"

My uncle and his wife, they are public school teachers, I tried to calmly explain to him that people WILLINGLY pay me to manage their money, not quite so when it comes to his salary or benefits, or retirement funds, this caught them off guard for perhaps 30 seconds before the volcanic eruption that followed.

It was especially bad when I explained that the people I work for also had the ability to assess me every day and whether or not I was doing a good job, and if I wasn't they could simply walk away, then I asked him how all the parents at the school were able to assess him and what their alternatives were if they didn't think he was doing a good enough job.

Well, that didn't go too well either.

ben22 said...

"don't you just wish you could say that sometimes?"

Yes!

I-Man said...

Today and yesterday's YM 5min chart are almost identical... "almost"...

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

Of course yield doesn't matter when [asset] is going up....

Right now, looking at that, you'd say rotate out of tech, China and small cap into dividends and corpies, or even some Treasuries.

One part of our fund can only be in AGG, TIP, SPY or cash....
Right now we are in AGG, TIP and cash.

karen said...

Ben.. that was a brilliant rebuttal! bravo.. also my MS friend that just sent me that clip said: "This truly is my life these days. Sheesh! Susie Ormond, Susie Ormond, Susie Ormond...."

Jennifer said...

Wow...the holidays are as interesting at Ben's home as they are at mine :-)

CV said...

@ben

I realize that we're having different arguments...

I'm just coming at it from a RELEVANCE perspective...

One could come at me all day with M3 charts to prove a point, but what's RELEVANT to me is what's happening in real life...

The average snowfall in Chicago from Fall to April is 38 inches... So tell me how RELEVANT that is to a Chicagoan who is digging out this week from 7 foot snow banks (as AHAB & myself would tell you we were doing in DC here last year)...

---

My longer term point is, that based on behavioral patterns of the most recent "CRASHES", the POLICY RESPONSE has been to flood liquidity into the system...

Though we both know that that is uttely flawed, it doesn't stop whatever can be squeezed out of that response into putting a bid into something...

Take your famous 2008 collapse for instance...

No go take a look at what "caught a bid" first in the aftermath... Most of it was in the commodity sector...

Now, in 2011, many have surpassed the 2008 bubble... The S&P??? No...

So great... Pop the bubble again, let things DEFLATE again (commodities will be the BETA - surely)... But when we get to the TEOTWAWKI moment again next time... I'd expect a rinse & repeat of 2008...

So we'll be here in 2014 talking about $8 Cheerios (after the round trip to $4)...

Where will the S&P be?

Oh - probably somewhere between ANDY T's waggly ABCDE-x pattern that he drew out last week...

Which means?

Once again... You have the same bank balance - it buys less...

Nickles bitchez! (at least if copper goes down 50% - before REGAINING 150% - I only paid face value for a roll of them)... And who knows? Maybe someday there actually will be a shortage of copper...

Accelerating Organic Economic Growth said...

What about me?
What happens when I arrive?

karen said...

if yields don't get squashed by Monday.. it could get ugly.

Anonymous said...

Accelerating Organic Economic Growth said...
What about me?
What happens when I arrive?

First of all, you are f*cking PRICED IN.
Secondly you are a figment of the government's imagination.

karen said...

BloombergNow
Fed's Fisher Says He Won't Support More QE After June http://bloom.bg/e8wgq6

Bruce in Tennessee said...

I like the video Karen. Suzy Orman Suzy Orman Suzy Orman...kinda rolls off the tongue,don't it?

Anonymous said...

if yields don't get squashed by Monday.. it could get ugly.

Yields would only blow out on a monster number, like 500k. Watch the fun if we miss the whisper +250k, the consensus +150k, and print a negative number. Note that THE BERNANK itself has not mentioned abbreviating QE2 and he has seen the number.

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

Fed's Fisher Says He Won't Support More QE After June

This is a tacit acceptance of the fact that they can't debase Bucky much longer before the entire world starts coming unglued. It ain't NATURAL, Alice...

Anonymous said...

Wonder how many HFs are on the wrong side when China hikes?

A Quant said...

A lot of us are going to implode.

karen said...

Breaking News
JP Morgan execs had doubts about B. Madoff's business more than 18 months before Ponzi scheme collapsed - nytimes http://nyti.ms/eI2Jxu

Oh, Please.. we know GS knew..

I-Man said...

Someone in the NY cartel wants to buy some MS I guess...

ROR.

Anonymous said...

Everyone knew. Bernie never made a trade....

I-Man said...

JPM, sorry... screwed up my own joke, dammit.

ben22 said...

CV,

As I said, if you don't think the M3 chart is relevant there isn't a thing I can do for you or even attempt to explain to you. I think seeing total money supply decline that fast for the first time since the depression is, yes, relevant. That you immediately drew a comparison to the 70's is also interesting.

As for what you said about the money in the bank, not really correct, if we deflate on the credit side notes will be far more valuable, there are hardly any of them compared to credits, it'd be one thing if I were just forecasting that but it just happened, so I don't need to prove anything.

ben22 said...

"Suzy Orman Suzy Orman Suzy Orman...kinda rolls off the tongue,don't it?"

Gonna have to go with

that's what she said.

I-Man said...

The upside rip is there just begging to be bought...

Someone's gotta make a move here, this is bush league.

I-Man said...

I guess they saw it too...

karen said...

http://archive.aweber.com/decarleybond/23LAR/h/Bonds_could_be_bottoming.htm


Tomorrow morning the government will release the latest data on the jobs front. Analysts are expecting nonfarm payrolls to have seen an increase of about 150,000 jobs and the unemployment rate of 9.5% (a tick higher than last month). According to Ben Bernanke today, "we are seeing some encouraging job market signs." Despite the Fed's optimism, there seems to be some market jitters.
The monthly employment data often triggers pent up market volatility and can sometimes be a catalyst for a reversal. We can't help but think the market might make one more probing low (just to torture the remaining bulls) before turning around and the employment report might be the event that makes this a reality. If so, look for a plunge below 118 in the 30-year bond before or after the news for a place to be bullish. If it turns out to be a non-event...all bets are off and back to range trading we will go.

I-Man said...

Stupid fucking computers, cant trade for shit.

karen said...

RSI(3) on $spx.. very very very negative divergence..

I-Man said...

What we just saw on the 1min is exactly what I meant by too much money chasing the move.

They kill half the move tripping over their own shoes trying to get in.

BUSH LEAGUE.

karen said...

READ THIS! In China, 'Egypt' and 'Cairo' have vanished

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/postpartisan/2011/02/imagine_if_you_typed_egypt.html

CV said...

@Accelerating Organic Economic Growth

What about me?
What happens when I arrive?


How many PARSECS distant are you at the moment and I'll calculate your arrival...

ben22 said...

hey look!

"they" know TA patterns

hilarious

Jennifer said...

Gold didn't buy what BB tried to sell us.

ben22 said...

"Gold didn't buy what BB tried to sell us."

Maybe not, but all of Conn. is snorting that pixie dust

The Long Bond said...

I must be beginning to look attractive now....

karen said...

imo, it's an algo trading day.. look at those % ups.. .25, .23, .26

Yield Hog said...

Give me another whisky and I'll drink you pretty....

ben22 said...

@18

1314 by the close?

Gary Shilling said...

I am always happy to take you home at night.

Marc Faber said...

Do NOT go viz that gurrrlll. She vill steel all your dollahrz.

karen said...

TLT just undercut the Dec low of 89.84.. looks like 84.43 is ever so possible.. i will like it better then. Or, perhaps this is a dbl bottom?? 84.43 would be stronger..

The Bond Market said...

I am pretty sure they were talking about the 30y note.

Not Karen. No need to drink her pretty.

ben22 said...

I've finally traded an intraday triangle, will close this down for a little gain before the close.

don't know why it took me so long, we get them every single day almost.

bob said...

http://www.wired.com/magazine/2011/01/ff_lottery/all/1

Good story, the point of using lottery "winnings" to launder money is a good one, if not explained enough.

About 10 years ago in NYS there was a "mistake" made with Quickdraw, the keno thing that runs all day long. They had a monthly special where there were "double payouts" on tuesdays. If you ran the numbers, on one spot there was a positive payout, on the order of 1.2-1.3 to 1.

Some guys in Northern NY figured it out, and showed up two weeks in a row to several different bars with over 500k a piece in cash. They then filled out tickets all day.

The "double payout tuesday" was stopped two weeks early.

CV said...

@ben22

As I said, if you don't think the M3 chart is relevant there isn't a thing I can do for you or even attempt to explain to you. I think seeing total money supply decline that fast for the first time since the depression is, yes, relevant. That you immediately drew a comparison to the 70's is also interesting.

There's a DIFFERENCE between comparing a decrease in money supply in the 30's to the 70's...

The difference is Bretton Woods... & the different nuances brought about that... I don't want to make a MACRO statement about that at the moment... Just say that it's a DIFFERENT comparison...

As for what you said about the money in the bank, not really correct, if we deflate on the credit side notes will be far more valuable, there are hardly any of them compared to credits, it'd be one thing if I were just forecasting that but it just happened, so I don't need to prove anything.

Notes more valuable during DEFLATION?

Let me ask you a simple hypothetical question...

How much does the LAST GALLON OF MILK on the store shelf cost? Answer: "x" UNOBTANIUMS...

and if you think that's a stupid or irrelevant question... Here's another...

How much PROFIT is there in bring milk to store shelves [for masses] in an environment where there were no credits, and only few people with these notes

Frankly - I'd feel more secure just having a cow...

Now I'll STFU...

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

84.43 would be stronger..

That would be a yield somewhere near 5.5%, which would mean a healthy economy. Not likely.

Have been waiting for these 89 prints. One hand today, another tomorrow if we see an 88 print on a monster jobs number.

Have to get busy in the market.

AmenRa said...

I'm dying over here LMAO

"Harry Potter and Warren Buffett wouldn't be able to help you."

ben22 said...

CV,

regarding your first comment, I'll be certain now not to discuss this anymore here, seriously this will be my last time since "this time is different", Ok....

karen said...

48.58 was the former corresponding $tyx to TLT 84.43.. not sure of the TLT vampire effect but $tyx could get to 49 or 50 no prob..

I would rather see it play out your way, however : )

But POMO is still on till the spring..

karen said...

AR, I know!! that line was also a gem.. i laughed out loud so hard..

AmenRa said...

TNX and TYX may have closed for the day but the selling of USTs continues. I'm seeing the yields still pushing higher.

karen said...

http://www.businessinsider.com/will-tomorrows-jobs-report-bring-out-the-big-bear-cycle-in-bonds-2011-2

Yields are definitely the best story on the screen right now..

karen said...

If the stock market would just sell off into the close.. we'd know exactly which way yields were headed.. ON THE ECONOMY.

Matthew said...

The long bond is a falling knife that has the attention of my hands this afternoon. No fear behind this terminal.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

I hate Super Bowl week....I have had to put a block on ESPN...every damn day they talk about some trivia because there is nothing to talk about...

...One more day of how Ben's brother was born with 6 toes on his left foot...humbug!!

Play the game already!

karen said...

The $SPX is way way way ahead of the $TNX on an overlay chart.. you know what is NOT DIFFERENT THIS TIME? How this is all gonna end.. in tears.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Matt:

Lefty has been pretty prescient with his bond contortions...I will be interested to see if he's right this last time about the end of rising yields...actually I think this is really VERY interesting to a hobbyist like me, 'cause if they don't stop, I know what happens then.

The last great Fed chairman knew too...

ben22 said...

I hope people hear recognize that a perfect pattern just played out

I know I'm such a dumbass for thinking that nobody can control the market but that was a pretty effin basic call if I've ever seen one.

karen said...

The Fed has pushed risk assets to the extreme.. you know what happens to risk assets when they are over-inflated? they pop.

ben22 said...

guys,

while you are all looking at the long bond, take a second to look at 90 days....why are they stuck near zero

that's not what happens in inflation, and it's not what happens in a growing economy

riddle me that gnomes

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

We just got very very long. Not in that Karen-related way.
In a fixed income kind of way.

We have been absolutely filling our boots over here.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

China stopped buying longer instruments...perhaps we've all become Oriental?

Helicopter Ben said...

while you are all looking at the long bond, take a second to look at 90 days....why are they stuck near zero

ZIRP bitchez.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

I have my boots filled whenever I talk with you Lefty...thanks.

karen said...

why would you want TLT when you can buy NLY?

karen said...

Bruce, your boots aren't filled, i hope, but they are stepping in it.. LOL

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

Remember that Treasuries are the base instrument for the bond market. If it is all going to go massively pear-shaped we would see it in HY first.

A lot of what we are doing today is using cash that has been waiting for better prices. We didn't sell any HY today, but we will if there is any more of this euphoria ahead.

Most of the risk in Treasuries is now behind us, back in September.

I-Man said...

Stocks and bonds can and will go up together... with Bucky, too.

Go America.

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

why would you want TLT when you can buy NLY?

1) We already have 4.5% NLY and 4.5% CIM.
2) We will buy more on a broad market sell-off
3) Parts of our fund cannot buy single names

karen said...

think ill trade in some candos and pounds today..

18 said...

@B22

SPX still bullish using 18's, all I'll say because I don't really know what has held this market up so long without a good pullback. 1305 "was" the number to close above and we'd see 1314, seems it did that, pulled back to 1296 now maybe close above it again today. So, answering your 1314 today? ... possible but more probable tomorrow.

karen said...

Naz is weaker.. this is really not much of a rally.. treading water till tomorrow..

ben22 said...

thanks 18

Anonymous said...

think ill trade in some candos and pounds today..

I will meet you there with my JPY. I am the handsome one, btw.

karen said...

http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2011/02/03/congress-wants-hear-whitney-muni/

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

equities 15% long, 19% shorts (all EEM)

fixed income I think is now 42% long.
AGG 15% JNK 9% TLT 8.5% LQD 4.5% TIP 5%

Cash is 24%.

Tomorrow could be a classic Sell The News day.

Jennifer said...

Corey on China:

http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/

Matthew said...

"why would you want TLT when you can buy NLY?"

Totally different risk profile.

Plus, I like to think of NLY as more of a spread product.

AmenRa said...

karen

There are just trying to get a peek at her research. Just don't p/o the hubby.

karen said...

I'm sorry Matthew.. i wasn't being serious with my question.

bob said...

AR

How great would that look on TV. Her in front of congress with her body guard/husband behind her.

karen said...

These headlines are too much:

Dow runs win streak to four as U.S. stocks close higher ahead of Friday payrolls report
02/03/2011 04:01:50 PM

AR, Pimco bot her report and has been tearing it to pieces..

karen said...

She was verily tarred and feathered on Twitter today..

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

NLY is a great stock for a "muddle through" scenario. It is a bit rate-sensitive, like a bond, but doesn't need a massively strong economy.

CIM is even better in a weakish economy as MBB will benefit from falling rates. Neither of these stocks is over-owned or overvalued at P/E of 6, and then there are those 15-16% divvys.

I really think China is going to blow. The charts, technicals and fundies are all coming into alignment now.

Matthew said...

Well, I was totally serial.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a9wmczxnT3c

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

I hope Chinese real estate bubble vaporizes and takes the overinflated riddled with fraud Shanghai market with it, ruining scores of greedy speculators. China needs to have its own 1929 moment.

It is a disgusting Animal Farm klepto-communist state that loots investors, poisons its own people and executes dissenters.

Another thing, they are currency manipulators.

Shhhh

The dumplings are good though, and the duck.

ben22 said...

"AR, Pimco bot her report and has been tearing it to pieces.."

supposedly I thought? I heard they paid $10k for the research but then I also heard MW was charging $100k for it, so who the hell knows for sure. I have a hard time believing she would have released the papers for only $10k, that would make no sense at all.

Besides, what else is PIMCO going to say, reading their remarks on Muni's given that they have 10's of billions in them is no different than people that waste time dissecting statements from Bernanke like "there are encouraging signs in the labor market" which he has said off and on now for 3 years.

Matthew said...

You can't make an omelette without breaking a few eggs

00010010 said...

anytime B00010110

:)

karen said...

Ben, i heard $10k too..

karen said...

this is so so so ugly for me: DHT announces 8m secondary priced between $4.57-$4.67.. now down over 9% in AH.. JFC.. I own a lot of that.. maybe they will up their div? LOL

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

Teen Girls don't want Justin Bieber, they want....
The Bond Report 2.3.11

Today was a very important day, as TLT closed below 90. TNX above 3.50 and TYX at 4.66%, well into our 4.60-4.80% target band. Fixed income sold off across the board as inwestors anticipated a monster number in tomorrow's employment report.

TIPS, long bonds, 5y, munis, IG corporates, mortgages, it was all shit today, as a media focus on inflation washed over the market and the recovery Kool-Aid was drunk by all. In jars.

Corpies: LQD -0.22%; AGG -0.35%; JNK 0.15%; HYG 0.04%
Govies: TLT -0.67%; IEI -0.36%; TIP -0.52%
Munis: IQI -0.50%; MUB -0.11%
Mortgages: MBB -0.18%
Hedgies: TBT 1.62%

We have been patiently waiting for a day (or days) like this. Bond bears massively outnumber bond bulls, and the prevalence of DGDF talk, commodity ├╝ber-bulls, and US default mongerers among the talking heads suggested to us that we are close to a sentiment extreme.

So we were buying big. We bought TLT, we bought LQD, we bought AGG. Our total FI exposure is now 42% and we can go to 50% or more.

We are also short EEM. The last sell-off was much more extreme in EMs than in SPY, so we prefer to express our bearishness in this way.

I-Man said...

Good post:

Wed, Feb 2

http://iamafuturestrader.blogspot.com/

Anonymous said...

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=CIM&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=NLY

why does CIM's Chart look so much better than NLY's?

also, finviz is saying NLY is trading 13+ x E ..

AAIP

Anonymous said...

CIM - residential mortgages
NLY - commercial backed mortgage REIT.

I get my p/e from bloomie.

NLY issued new shares recently, they have done that often.
These stocks issue to raise cash to buy more assets.

You get the divvy, price doesn't do much, it's like a bond.

Anonymous said...

@17:24

Gracias~!

ibid.

«Oldest ‹Older   201 – 310 of 310   Newer› Newest»

Post a Comment

Disclosure/Warning

This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.