-no change
trend=down
low= 2715.29
rev= 2842.43; mid= 2778.86
Starting to turn bullish as it has closed above the weekly 3LB mid so far this week. Not sure why since their government economic reports are as manipulated as ours. We may have built more homes than needed but they have built cities that aren't occupied.
Year of the Rabbit
Egypt Compilation of the day (re-shuffle your i-POD's)
310 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 310 of 310 Newer› Newest»tulving is running a sale.. you can buy at spot!
http://www.tulving.com/goldbull.html
REALITY is Cheerios cost more today than they did in 2007...
And I make the same amount of money... Good thing I don't buy Cheerios...
4.66%...!!!
YOU KNOW YOU WANT ME.....
Show off.
that pennant needs a gust of wind from somewhere..
Ben, A Day in the Life of a Financial Advisor:
http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/7743951/
We need it to square out, and every time it gets close, someone gets ancy and messes it up.
The only time we get sloppy like this is when there is too much money stalking the move.
But what if people don't want you at 4.66?
..Then what?
Karen,
this video is fairly accurate.
LOL, the guy I used to work for emailed me that yesterday morning.
CV,
You are right, I wasn't alive during the 70's, but it's not relevant anyway. Do you see a decline in the M3 chart like we see now in the 1970's? I don't. That's when it just started to go parabolic.
Here's another thing, food prices could plummet and people still won't be able to afford them, just like during the depression. In late 2008 and early 09 lots of people weren't all of the sudden on easy street because gas and other commodity prices got destroyed.
I will have to watch that later.
but Ben, was it so accurate that you didn't burst out laughing at the last line?! don't you just wish you could say that sometimes?
Yield Watchers anonymous presents:
LQD 4.88%
Long Bond 4.66%
AGG 3.51%
DOW 2.42%
The Five Year 2.16%
SPY 1.74%
EEM 1.39%
IWM 1.13%
NAZZ 0.63%
anyone have a link to the santelli cnbc link ? he's ranting about what Bernanke doesn't get.. the markets..
the Fees thing is spot on, most people want you to work for free, but that's a lot of things that are like that, everyone wants something for nothing. Suze Orman thing was also hilarious.
I had it out with an uncle over the holidays about this when he gave me the snide remark of
"you make money off other people's money"
My uncle and his wife, they are public school teachers, I tried to calmly explain to him that people WILLINGLY pay me to manage their money, not quite so when it comes to his salary or benefits, or retirement funds, this caught them off guard for perhaps 30 seconds before the volcanic eruption that followed.
It was especially bad when I explained that the people I work for also had the ability to assess me every day and whether or not I was doing a good job, and if I wasn't they could simply walk away, then I asked him how all the parents at the school were able to assess him and what their alternatives were if they didn't think he was doing a good enough job.
Well, that didn't go too well either.
"don't you just wish you could say that sometimes?"
Yes!
Today and yesterday's YM 5min chart are almost identical... "almost"...
Of course yield doesn't matter when [asset] is going up....
Right now, looking at that, you'd say rotate out of tech, China and small cap into dividends and corpies, or even some Treasuries.
One part of our fund can only be in AGG, TIP, SPY or cash....
Right now we are in AGG, TIP and cash.
Ben.. that was a brilliant rebuttal! bravo.. also my MS friend that just sent me that clip said: "This truly is my life these days. Sheesh! Susie Ormond, Susie Ormond, Susie Ormond...."
Wow...the holidays are as interesting at Ben's home as they are at mine :-)
@ben
I realize that we're having different arguments...
I'm just coming at it from a RELEVANCE perspective...
One could come at me all day with M3 charts to prove a point, but what's RELEVANT to me is what's happening in real life...
The average snowfall in Chicago from Fall to April is 38 inches... So tell me how RELEVANT that is to a Chicagoan who is digging out this week from 7 foot snow banks (as AHAB & myself would tell you we were doing in DC here last year)...
---
My longer term point is, that based on behavioral patterns of the most recent "CRASHES", the POLICY RESPONSE has been to flood liquidity into the system...
Though we both know that that is uttely flawed, it doesn't stop whatever can be squeezed out of that response into putting a bid into something...
Take your famous 2008 collapse for instance...
No go take a look at what "caught a bid" first in the aftermath... Most of it was in the commodity sector...
Now, in 2011, many have surpassed the 2008 bubble... The S&P??? No...
So great... Pop the bubble again, let things DEFLATE again (commodities will be the BETA - surely)... But when we get to the TEOTWAWKI moment again next time... I'd expect a rinse & repeat of 2008...
So we'll be here in 2014 talking about $8 Cheerios (after the round trip to $4)...
Where will the S&P be?
Oh - probably somewhere between ANDY T's waggly ABCDE-x pattern that he drew out last week...
Which means?
Once again... You have the same bank balance - it buys less...
Nickles bitchez! (at least if copper goes down 50% - before REGAINING 150% - I only paid face value for a roll of them)... And who knows? Maybe someday there actually will be a shortage of copper...
What about me?
What happens when I arrive?
if yields don't get squashed by Monday.. it could get ugly.
Accelerating Organic Economic Growth said...
What about me?
What happens when I arrive?
First of all, you are f*cking PRICED IN.
Secondly you are a figment of the government's imagination.
BloombergNow
Fed's Fisher Says He Won't Support More QE After June http://bloom.bg/e8wgq6
I like the video Karen. Suzy Orman Suzy Orman Suzy Orman...kinda rolls off the tongue,don't it?
if yields don't get squashed by Monday.. it could get ugly.
Yields would only blow out on a monster number, like 500k. Watch the fun if we miss the whisper +250k, the consensus +150k, and print a negative number. Note that THE BERNANK itself has not mentioned abbreviating QE2 and he has seen the number.
Fed's Fisher Says He Won't Support More QE After June
This is a tacit acceptance of the fact that they can't debase Bucky much longer before the entire world starts coming unglued. It ain't NATURAL, Alice...
Wonder how many HFs are on the wrong side when China hikes?
A lot of us are going to implode.
Breaking News
JP Morgan execs had doubts about B. Madoff's business more than 18 months before Ponzi scheme collapsed - nytimes http://nyti.ms/eI2Jxu
Oh, Please.. we know GS knew..
Someone in the NY cartel wants to buy some MS I guess...
ROR.
Everyone knew. Bernie never made a trade....
JPM, sorry... screwed up my own joke, dammit.
CV,
As I said, if you don't think the M3 chart is relevant there isn't a thing I can do for you or even attempt to explain to you. I think seeing total money supply decline that fast for the first time since the depression is, yes, relevant. That you immediately drew a comparison to the 70's is also interesting.
As for what you said about the money in the bank, not really correct, if we deflate on the credit side notes will be far more valuable, there are hardly any of them compared to credits, it'd be one thing if I were just forecasting that but it just happened, so I don't need to prove anything.
"Suzy Orman Suzy Orman Suzy Orman...kinda rolls off the tongue,don't it?"
Gonna have to go with
that's what she said.
The upside rip is there just begging to be bought...
Someone's gotta make a move here, this is bush league.
I guess they saw it too...
http://archive.aweber.com/decarleybond/23LAR/h/Bonds_could_be_bottoming.htm
Tomorrow morning the government will release the latest data on the jobs front. Analysts are expecting nonfarm payrolls to have seen an increase of about 150,000 jobs and the unemployment rate of 9.5% (a tick higher than last month). According to Ben Bernanke today, "we are seeing some encouraging job market signs." Despite the Fed's optimism, there seems to be some market jitters.
The monthly employment data often triggers pent up market volatility and can sometimes be a catalyst for a reversal. We can't help but think the market might make one more probing low (just to torture the remaining bulls) before turning around and the employment report might be the event that makes this a reality. If so, look for a plunge below 118 in the 30-year bond before or after the news for a place to be bullish. If it turns out to be a non-event...all bets are off and back to range trading we will go.
Stupid fucking computers, cant trade for shit.
RSI(3) on $spx.. very very very negative divergence..
What we just saw on the 1min is exactly what I meant by too much money chasing the move.
They kill half the move tripping over their own shoes trying to get in.
BUSH LEAGUE.
READ THIS! In China, 'Egypt' and 'Cairo' have vanished
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/postpartisan/2011/02/imagine_if_you_typed_egypt.html
@Accelerating Organic Economic Growth
What about me?
What happens when I arrive?
How many PARSECS distant are you at the moment and I'll calculate your arrival...
hey look!
"they" know TA patterns
hilarious
Gold didn't buy what BB tried to sell us.
"Gold didn't buy what BB tried to sell us."
Maybe not, but all of Conn. is snorting that pixie dust
I must be beginning to look attractive now....
imo, it's an algo trading day.. look at those % ups.. .25, .23, .26
Give me another whisky and I'll drink you pretty....
@18
1314 by the close?
I am always happy to take you home at night.
Do NOT go viz that gurrrlll. She vill steel all your dollahrz.
TLT just undercut the Dec low of 89.84.. looks like 84.43 is ever so possible.. i will like it better then. Or, perhaps this is a dbl bottom?? 84.43 would be stronger..
I am pretty sure they were talking about the 30y note.
Not Karen. No need to drink her pretty.
I've finally traded an intraday triangle, will close this down for a little gain before the close.
don't know why it took me so long, we get them every single day almost.
http://www.wired.com/magazine/2011/01/ff_lottery/all/1
Good story, the point of using lottery "winnings" to launder money is a good one, if not explained enough.
About 10 years ago in NYS there was a "mistake" made with Quickdraw, the keno thing that runs all day long. They had a monthly special where there were "double payouts" on tuesdays. If you ran the numbers, on one spot there was a positive payout, on the order of 1.2-1.3 to 1.
Some guys in Northern NY figured it out, and showed up two weeks in a row to several different bars with over 500k a piece in cash. They then filled out tickets all day.
The "double payout tuesday" was stopped two weeks early.
@ben22
As I said, if you don't think the M3 chart is relevant there isn't a thing I can do for you or even attempt to explain to you. I think seeing total money supply decline that fast for the first time since the depression is, yes, relevant. That you immediately drew a comparison to the 70's is also interesting.
There's a DIFFERENCE between comparing a decrease in money supply in the 30's to the 70's...
The difference is Bretton Woods... & the different nuances brought about that... I don't want to make a MACRO statement about that at the moment... Just say that it's a DIFFERENT comparison...
As for what you said about the money in the bank, not really correct, if we deflate on the credit side notes will be far more valuable, there are hardly any of them compared to credits, it'd be one thing if I were just forecasting that but it just happened, so I don't need to prove anything.
Notes more valuable during DEFLATION?
Let me ask you a simple hypothetical question...
How much does the LAST GALLON OF MILK on the store shelf cost? Answer: "x" UNOBTANIUMS...
and if you think that's a stupid or irrelevant question... Here's another...
How much PROFIT is there in bring milk to store shelves [for masses] in an environment where there were no credits, and only few people with these notes
Frankly - I'd feel more secure just having a cow...
Now I'll STFU...
84.43 would be stronger..
That would be a yield somewhere near 5.5%, which would mean a healthy economy. Not likely.
Have been waiting for these 89 prints. One hand today, another tomorrow if we see an 88 print on a monster jobs number.
Have to get busy in the market.
I'm dying over here LMAO
"Harry Potter and Warren Buffett wouldn't be able to help you."
CV,
regarding your first comment, I'll be certain now not to discuss this anymore here, seriously this will be my last time since "this time is different", Ok....
48.58 was the former corresponding $tyx to TLT 84.43.. not sure of the TLT vampire effect but $tyx could get to 49 or 50 no prob..
I would rather see it play out your way, however : )
But POMO is still on till the spring..
AR, I know!! that line was also a gem.. i laughed out loud so hard..
TNX and TYX may have closed for the day but the selling of USTs continues. I'm seeing the yields still pushing higher.
http://www.businessinsider.com/will-tomorrows-jobs-report-bring-out-the-big-bear-cycle-in-bonds-2011-2
Yields are definitely the best story on the screen right now..
If the stock market would just sell off into the close.. we'd know exactly which way yields were headed.. ON THE ECONOMY.
The long bond is a falling knife that has the attention of my hands this afternoon. No fear behind this terminal.
I hate Super Bowl week....I have had to put a block on ESPN...every damn day they talk about some trivia because there is nothing to talk about...
...One more day of how Ben's brother was born with 6 toes on his left foot...humbug!!
Play the game already!
The $SPX is way way way ahead of the $TNX on an overlay chart.. you know what is NOT DIFFERENT THIS TIME? How this is all gonna end.. in tears.
Matt:
Lefty has been pretty prescient with his bond contortions...I will be interested to see if he's right this last time about the end of rising yields...actually I think this is really VERY interesting to a hobbyist like me, 'cause if they don't stop, I know what happens then.
The last great Fed chairman knew too...
I hope people hear recognize that a perfect pattern just played out
I know I'm such a dumbass for thinking that nobody can control the market but that was a pretty effin basic call if I've ever seen one.
The Fed has pushed risk assets to the extreme.. you know what happens to risk assets when they are over-inflated? they pop.
guys,
while you are all looking at the long bond, take a second to look at 90 days....why are they stuck near zero
that's not what happens in inflation, and it's not what happens in a growing economy
riddle me that gnomes
We just got very very long. Not in that Karen-related way.
In a fixed income kind of way.
We have been absolutely filling our boots over here.
China stopped buying longer instruments...perhaps we've all become Oriental?
while you are all looking at the long bond, take a second to look at 90 days....why are they stuck near zero
ZIRP bitchez.
I have my boots filled whenever I talk with you Lefty...thanks.
why would you want TLT when you can buy NLY?
Bruce, your boots aren't filled, i hope, but they are stepping in it.. LOL
Remember that Treasuries are the base instrument for the bond market. If it is all going to go massively pear-shaped we would see it in HY first.
A lot of what we are doing today is using cash that has been waiting for better prices. We didn't sell any HY today, but we will if there is any more of this euphoria ahead.
Most of the risk in Treasuries is now behind us, back in September.
Stocks and bonds can and will go up together... with Bucky, too.
Go America.
why would you want TLT when you can buy NLY?
1) We already have 4.5% NLY and 4.5% CIM.
2) We will buy more on a broad market sell-off
3) Parts of our fund cannot buy single names
think ill trade in some candos and pounds today..
@B22
SPX still bullish using 18's, all I'll say because I don't really know what has held this market up so long without a good pullback. 1305 "was" the number to close above and we'd see 1314, seems it did that, pulled back to 1296 now maybe close above it again today. So, answering your 1314 today? ... possible but more probable tomorrow.
Naz is weaker.. this is really not much of a rally.. treading water till tomorrow..
thanks 18
think ill trade in some candos and pounds today..
I will meet you there with my JPY. I am the handsome one, btw.
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2011/02/03/congress-wants-hear-whitney-muni/
equities 15% long, 19% shorts (all EEM)
fixed income I think is now 42% long.
AGG 15% JNK 9% TLT 8.5% LQD 4.5% TIP 5%
Cash is 24%.
Tomorrow could be a classic Sell The News day.
Corey on China:
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/
"why would you want TLT when you can buy NLY?"
Totally different risk profile.
Plus, I like to think of NLY as more of a spread product.
karen
There are just trying to get a peek at her research. Just don't p/o the hubby.
I'm sorry Matthew.. i wasn't being serious with my question.
AR
How great would that look on TV. Her in front of congress with her body guard/husband behind her.
These headlines are too much:
Dow runs win streak to four as U.S. stocks close higher ahead of Friday payrolls report
02/03/2011 04:01:50 PM
AR, Pimco bot her report and has been tearing it to pieces..
She was verily tarred and feathered on Twitter today..
NLY is a great stock for a "muddle through" scenario. It is a bit rate-sensitive, like a bond, but doesn't need a massively strong economy.
CIM is even better in a weakish economy as MBB will benefit from falling rates. Neither of these stocks is over-owned or overvalued at P/E of 6, and then there are those 15-16% divvys.
I really think China is going to blow. The charts, technicals and fundies are all coming into alignment now.
Well, I was totally serial.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a9wmczxnT3c
I hope Chinese real estate bubble vaporizes and takes the overinflated riddled with fraud Shanghai market with it, ruining scores of greedy speculators. China needs to have its own 1929 moment.
It is a disgusting Animal Farm klepto-communist state that loots investors, poisons its own people and executes dissenters.
Another thing, they are currency manipulators.
Shhhh
The dumplings are good though, and the duck.
"AR, Pimco bot her report and has been tearing it to pieces.."
supposedly I thought? I heard they paid $10k for the research but then I also heard MW was charging $100k for it, so who the hell knows for sure. I have a hard time believing she would have released the papers for only $10k, that would make no sense at all.
Besides, what else is PIMCO going to say, reading their remarks on Muni's given that they have 10's of billions in them is no different than people that waste time dissecting statements from Bernanke like "there are encouraging signs in the labor market" which he has said off and on now for 3 years.
You can't make an omelette without breaking a few eggs
anytime B00010110
:)
Ben, i heard $10k too..
this is so so so ugly for me: DHT announces 8m secondary priced between $4.57-$4.67.. now down over 9% in AH.. JFC.. I own a lot of that.. maybe they will up their div? LOL
Teen Girls don't want Justin Bieber, they want....
The Bond Report 2.3.11
Today was a very important day, as TLT closed below 90. TNX above 3.50 and TYX at 4.66%, well into our 4.60-4.80% target band. Fixed income sold off across the board as inwestors anticipated a monster number in tomorrow's employment report.
TIPS, long bonds, 5y, munis, IG corporates, mortgages, it was all shit today, as a media focus on inflation washed over the market and the recovery Kool-Aid was drunk by all. In jars.
Corpies: LQD -0.22%; AGG -0.35%; JNK 0.15%; HYG 0.04%
Govies: TLT -0.67%; IEI -0.36%; TIP -0.52%
Munis: IQI -0.50%; MUB -0.11%
Mortgages: MBB -0.18%
Hedgies: TBT 1.62%
We have been patiently waiting for a day (or days) like this. Bond bears massively outnumber bond bulls, and the prevalence of DGDF talk, commodity über-bulls, and US default mongerers among the talking heads suggested to us that we are close to a sentiment extreme.
So we were buying big. We bought TLT, we bought LQD, we bought AGG. Our total FI exposure is now 42% and we can go to 50% or more.
We are also short EEM. The last sell-off was much more extreme in EMs than in SPY, so we prefer to express our bearishness in this way.
Good post:
Wed, Feb 2
http://iamafuturestrader.blogspot.com/
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=CIM&ty=c&ta=1&p=d
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=NLY
why does CIM's Chart look so much better than NLY's?
also, finviz is saying NLY is trading 13+ x E ..
AAIP
CIM - residential mortgages
NLY - commercial backed mortgage REIT.
I get my p/e from bloomie.
NLY issued new shares recently, they have done that often.
These stocks issue to raise cash to buy more assets.
You get the divvy, price doesn't do much, it's like a bond.
@17:24
Gracias~!
ibid.
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