EEM (weekly info)-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
low= 44.80
rev= 48.49; mid= 46.65
This move in EEM seems to have petered out. When the weakness returns in the US will EEM be able to pick up the slack? Or will they lead the way?
* Maybe Meredith Whitney was right: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/21/business/economy/21bankruptcy.html?_r=3&src=busln
Path Is Sought for States to Escape Debt Burdens
Policy makers are working behind the scenes to come up with a way to let states declare bankruptcy and get out from under crushing debts, including the pensions they have promised to retired public workers.
Read more...
* The end is near (stock market, BB's & TG's job, muni bond holders, etc)...
SPY (60 min - 10 weeks)
223 comments:
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Matthew
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ben22
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Matthew
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A fixed income analyst to be named later
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A fixed income analyst to be named later
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Anonymous
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karen
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Chuck Prince
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ben22
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Bruce in Tennessee
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Bruce in Tennessee
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ben22
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«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 223 of 223 Newer› Newest»"'Increasing supply is bad for price'...this statement holds no water in markets whatsoever"
You are right on Ben. Lefty could probably say it better than me, but supply in the corporate credit market tends to be price confirming and have a positive rub on prices in the secondary market
money coming out of small caps and into the dow, this is what I was getting at earlier
see this a lot at tops
oddly enough, my own little observation is that Johnee and David alike are all geared up to buy the dips so maybe it's Slope of Hope time, I saw this show once before, pretty sure Dennis Kneels was on it.
@anon:
"US govt has to issue more front end, b/c maturity is getting shorter."
Could you elaborate on this further? The impression that I get is that the UST has a secondary goal of lengthening weighted average maturity of its outstanding debt to reduce rollover risk. Wouldn't they be rolling some of the shorter issues at maturity into longer ones? Am I waaay off base?
look at Chet's chart above in relation to today's closing price on SPY, 128.37.. pretty good!
The slow de-risking trend within our portfolio continues.
We are now 14% US equities, 13% short EMs. 3% short gold.
Bonds: HYG 15% LQD 3% TIP 5% AGG 10% TLT 4% (total = 37%).
We aren't terribly bearish yet, except China, but it makes no sense to be taking risk up here. We are having a good month, up almost 2% so far, and our hedging/trading results are much better.
Cash is very useful in this kind of market, as is patience. Lack of broad market exposure (no indexes) helps us sleep at night. Our adventures into risky credit are curtailed for now, but we will watch munis and we would be buyers of an apocalyptic meltdown.
In a flash crash stock market scenario, were one to develop this Spring, we would probably take the stops off our dividend stocks and look to cherry pick to add to these to about the 25% level, and try to trade the dip with SPY/ERX/EDC etc...
Matt,
Yes and no. As the interest on the debt increases constantly, the relative importance of the front end increases. So that will mean more bills, and maybe more 2 years. This is the difference between our dynamic and Japan's when they began, we already have a massive debt.
Matthew -- I would highly recommend going back to school. I was out for 4 years before I went to law school. Since many people who go to law school go straight through, the ones who take time off provide instant age/experience diversity and are much more attractive candidates from an admissions perspective. A nice JD/MBA combo maybe? Those joint degrees do require some extra work. Straight JD would leave plenty of time for daytrading.
$rut looks rather waterfallish.. as does $tran.. overlay the $spx.. monday worth be living for, i think.
Ashraf Laidi
Weekly RSIs in #DJIA $INDU is also highest since that 1st week of May when we topped out after 8th consec weeks
no way this can all play out again, can it?
Citigroup increases CEO Pandit's base pay to $1.75 mln from $1
01/21/2011 04:30:36 PM
Facebook raises $1.5 bln in Goldman deal, will disclose financials by April 2012
(can that possibly be a sign of the top? rolling my eyes)
Feels very much like we could have a steep whoosh in the next ten days. I feel better prepared this time after Flash Crash. Lack of puts and über-bullish sentiment on the Street, not to mention problems aplenty brewing around the world that might trigger a dollar rally.
Yield Watchers report:
LQD 4.87%, TNX 3.42%, DIA 2.46%, FVX 2.02% SPY 1.77, GLD 0.00
Mostly we are all currency traders now. It's DGDF or safety.
okay, disappearing to my beach now.. 70 and sunny.. minus tide.. will walk past the pier where I-Man and I enjoyed some beer this summer. NO PERCH!
Pandit is still dancing.... in my office.
"...Cash is very useful in this kind of market, as is patience. Lack of broad market exposure (no indexes) helps us sleep at night..."
always a good thing to remember..
AAIP
It's my office, you fool. I built the effing Ponzi that is C.
I built a really good Ponzi too, and the government took it.
Y'all are a bunch of bookies...
Been scalpeling all day, just got in...I know Lefty has behaved while I was gone, right?
Bruce,
charles nenner says sell on the 25th no matter what!
were you able to catch DT this morning?
No,Ben I have been doing cosmetic surgery today all day long...
Frankly, I missed the chatter in the room today...but taking baby out to eat with buds in a while and am looking forward to the weekend.
Besides, we know all the Tepper rules by now...JBTFD!
If you guys have a commentary during the games Sunday, I'll check in and maybe comment.
Bruce,
you didn't miss much today, was a lot more the last time, see I figured you'd block your morning off for him, :-)
pretty much like you said, buy the dip
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