TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Corner 1.21.11

Morning Corner 1.21.11

EEM (weekly info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
low= 44.80
rev= 48.49; mid= 46.65

This move in EEM seems to have petered out. When the weakness returns in the US will EEM be able to pick up the slack? Or will they lead the way?

* Maybe Meredith Whitney was right: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/21/business/economy/21bankruptcy.html?_r=3&src=busln

Path Is Sought for States to Escape Debt Burdens

Policy makers are working behind the scenes to come up with a way to let states declare bankruptcy and get out from under crushing debts, including the pensions they have promised to retired public workers.

Read more...

* The end is near (stock market, BB's & TG's job, muni bond holders, etc)...

SPY (60 min - 10 weeks)

223 comments:

«Oldest ‹Older 1 – 200 of 223 Newer› Newest»

AmenRa said...: BAC WTE. Missed on the top and bottom line.; January 21, 2011 at 7:33 AM
AmenRa said...: Opex squeeze is on. Market ignoring BAC results.; January 21, 2011 at 8:23 AM
ben22 said...: DT is not going to reveal anything today, 20minutes in, half of which were passing out hats and terrible towels and speculation on what the unemployment rate will be.....in 10 years, he hasn't said much.

I will note however, that he's "watching loan growth at banks", but what does credit extension matter in a credit based system

and as for the most valuable insight

"there's risk in the stock market"

Sort of anti climatic after the last one eh Bruce?; January 21, 2011 at 8:27 AM
ben22 said...: oh, my bad, 8:32 EST

buy every dip

there you go, all you need to know

oh that and it's because of the economy

cheers; January 21, 2011 at 8:33 AM
Jennifer said...: LB's DF position should benefit from a nice DT pump today.; January 21, 2011 at 8:36 AM
Jennifer said...: I love the denial that he offloaded his stock onto buyers after his pump. Classy.; January 21, 2011 at 8:37 AM
ben22 said...: What are bonds really saying?

Lets see, economy is "way better" than it was in April 2010

Inflation is now self evident, right.....

So why hasn't the 10 year gone above where it was in April 2010?

maybe it's on it's way back o 4% and much higher, tepper said he "wished he was short bonds" though it wasn't clear if that was now or before,

but does the bond market trail the equity market....or is it the other way around; January 21, 2011 at 9:04 AM
AmenRa said...: I believe there are two ways to view the bond market.

1) Higher yields indicate a growing economy.

2) Higher yields indicate the bond market doesn't believe you can pay your debts and demand the higher yield to take on that risk.

I think #2 is the US currently.; January 21, 2011 at 9:11 AM
karen said...: morning.. yes, i have to talk to LB about his yield theory.. because if it had been HFs like he said.. it would have been a much sharper move and not this slow steady uptrend..; January 21, 2011 at 9:29 AM
karen said...: is the dow really gonna open up 75-100 pts?! JFC.; January 21, 2011 at 9:29 AM
karen said...: margins raised on gold and silver..; January 21, 2011 at 9:30 AM
karen said...: isrg is ufb.. let the profit taking begin, this is really too much.. Trader Dan has reviewed the Tepper vid.. haven't gotten to it yet.. i might have had too much saki last night.. or maybe it was the wine before and after ?; January 21, 2011 at 9:33 AM
AmenRa said...: When did 2yr yields jump from 0.60 to 1.05?; January 21, 2011 at 9:33 AM
Anonymous said...: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=USGG2:IND&n=y

VALUE: 0.625 USD; January 21, 2011 at 9:37 AM
AmenRa said...: Ok. I was looking at the 2yr government bond not the yield on the 2yr t-bill. Whew. Thought I was going crazy there for a second.; January 21, 2011 at 9:40 AM
karen said...: "The two main difference I had with him was (a) his take on the dollar and (b) that there is really no downside to the Fed's actions. If he is correct on the latter, then why does the Fed not just do a permanent Quantitative Easing program forever and we never have to worry about the stock market ever falling again. As for the former, if you look at the dollar versus the 2 other main currencies of the world (yen, euro) yes it has not fallen. But the reason for that has nothing to do with "no effects by Fed actions"; all 3 regions are in a race to the bottom, trying to devalue themselves to "buy" growth and increase exports. Instead, when you compare the dollar to countries who are fiscally sound (or gold) the story changes dramatically."

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2011/01/video-david-tepper-still-bullish-but.html; January 21, 2011 at 9:41 AM
karen said...: seriously, what is left to buy at these valuations? oh yeah.. aapl..; January 21, 2011 at 9:48 AM
karen said...: the dollar is d*mn ugly right now.. i don't have enuf curse words for this opening.; January 21, 2011 at 9:52 AM
karen said...: eem not buying this rally..; January 21, 2011 at 9:53 AM
AmenRa said...: I wonder if not getting to SPX 1300 during opex week is a sign of a castrated bull..; January 21, 2011 at 9:56 AM
karen said...: bots trading.. look at the % ups in the indices.. all about the same.. i am so mad at myself for not taking my faz profits yesterday..; January 21, 2011 at 9:56 AM
karen said...: volume dropping on spy now.. i am dying over this.. really.. well, i have a shipper to sell.. limit not hit yet..; January 21, 2011 at 9:58 AM
karen said...: copper looks like its up but not when you put it in chart perspective..; January 21, 2011 at 10:05 AM
karen said...: http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/how-much-has-the-fed-distorted-the-stock-market/; January 21, 2011 at 10:06 AM
ben22 said...: Karen,

we may see the high of the day at the open, no trading for me today

good luck

also, Tepper didn't seem to think valuations were a problem either ;-); January 21, 2011 at 10:07 AM
AmenRa said...: ben22

I don't know why but it looks as though your post was delayed. Blogger must be up to its old tricks.; January 21, 2011 at 10:13 AM
Anonymous said...: the surreal reality of "ZIRP and QE" world . . .

and the Fed "put" that distorts all risk taking endeavors- because you know there is a nice comfortable crash pad to land on; January 21, 2011 at 10:19 AM
ben22 said...: what about when the fed supplied "unlimited credit" in the first quarter of 2009, no QE then, but we had ZIRP

what of that? where was the crash pad?

and no, I'm not calling for a crash, but what I'm saying is, if correlation works only sometimes, how do you know when it will change?; January 21, 2011 at 10:22 AM
Anonymous said...: no- I get you b22-

but . . .I do believe the "put" creates more dice rolling than may otherwise happen-

and concurrent ZIRP and QE are recent phenomena- people may putting more faith in it then it deserves; January 21, 2011 at 10:25 AM
karen said...: HYG and JNK showing no fear..; January 21, 2011 at 10:26 AM
karen said...: i get a kick out of spy and dia volumes on the ten min chart..

eem is getting interesting.. but nothing is as riveting as the TBT-TLT story!; January 21, 2011 at 10:29 AM
Jennifer said...: I can't believe I skipped a shower to watch Tepper. I had to go to preschool in my PJs.; January 21, 2011 at 10:31 AM
Anonymous said...: jennifer-

you still in preschool:-)?; January 21, 2011 at 10:35 AM
Jennifer said...: feels like it most days :-); January 21, 2011 at 10:39 AM
ben22 said...: I think people are putting more "faith" (love that you used that word) into them than they deserve, a minority view to be sure.

as for it creating more dice rolling, well maybe it does ahab, maybe it doesn't, maybe they know better in Japan, maybe they don't

it would seem though, the amount of dice rolling is in many ways determined by what's happening on the other side of the market is it not? You can only keep rolling to the extent the other side allows you. And also, if authorities could stop declines, what's up with those silly Japanese? What idiots!; January 21, 2011 at 10:42 AM
Jennifer said...: Oops on GOOG, giving up their earnings gains.; January 21, 2011 at 10:43 AM
ben22 said...: Jennifer,

I got in late because of it (Tepper), total waste of time, was more exciting last time

did you notice Joe Kernan, he made a point to say they'd talk about the NJ Food Bank but he just couldn't wait to get his opinion on markets, forget these fools that can't eat

are stocks going higher! is there still "no risk"!!!!!!; January 21, 2011 at 10:44 AM
AmenRa said...: Gold looks like it's forming a morning star pattern. Is it about time to BTD?; January 21, 2011 at 10:47 AM
Jennifer said...: I noticed that Joe K was really interested in proving that his hair is real. The rest of the interview was about as interesting and informative.; January 21, 2011 at 10:49 AM
Jennifer said...: AR -- I'll confess, I bought GDX at yesterday's close. The bounce is weak, but I screwed up with the COMEX rule changes. If China tightens over the weekend, then there is more downside. I linked to something within the last couple of days that suggested the 150 dma as a good buy point -- on GLD that is around 127 right now.; January 21, 2011 at 10:51 AM
Anonymous said...: is there still "no risk"

that's funny; January 21, 2011 at 10:52 AM
karen said...: goog back to earth.. isrg not!; January 21, 2011 at 10:53 AM
Jennifer said...: I have a soft spot in my heart for ISRG. It was my first really significantly profitable trade when I was starting to take this seriously. Of course, I sold around 118 so I guess that wasn't so good.; January 21, 2011 at 10:56 AM
ben22 said...: gearing up for Obamacare Karen

see, it's fundamental's.; January 21, 2011 at 10:57 AM
Jennifer said...: Plus, I think that the Da Vinci is really cool. If I ever needed any surgery that they use that for, I would go out of my way to go ot a hospital/doctor that use it. My husband has a heart defect, not terribly significant, but we were stunned when we first found out about it (our firstborn was about 3 weeks old -- and we hadn't bought life insurance yet -- so wonderful timing!) He has opted to leave it alone, and there is a way to possibly correct it without open heart surgery, but if he were ever to have open heart surgery, it would be with the Da Vinci. Avoiding having your chest cracked open is a big plus.; January 21, 2011 at 10:58 AM
Jennifer said...: Note: heart condition does not prevent light saber wars with angry hordes of 6 year old neighbor kids.; January 21, 2011 at 10:59 AM
ben22 said...: @J,

I made a good amount of money off ISRG before as well, hard for me to get interested up here.; January 21, 2011 at 11:02 AM
karen said...: did i miss the pomo?! darn.. it'll show up in the indices any minute, i'm sure..; January 21, 2011 at 11:09 AM
Pre School said...: Jenniffer - I like preschool too, I miss going but they said I was too big now :(

But I still get to color at home.

Mangy Mutt; January 21, 2011 at 11:36 AM
karen said...: hmm, this market needs some fresh money to come in.. maybe biderman has it figured out now..

perusing the trimtabs site.. this looks like a good story:

http://www.trimtabs.com/global/news_stories.htm

LOL, "the fed is rigging the market"

http://www.trimtabs.com/global/news_video.htm; January 21, 2011 at 11:38 AM
karen said...: Diana Olick
2,000 commercial mortgages due to mature in next 12 mos. $22.5B (Fitch) More than 1/2 originated bet '05-'07, when re values highest; January 21, 2011 at 11:42 AM
karen said...: i would say that the Biderman interview above is a must watch..

http://www.trimtabs.com/global/news_video.htm; January 21, 2011 at 11:43 AM
karen said...: you gotta here his take on gold..

he loves aapl, amzn, and crm; January 21, 2011 at 11:45 AM
karen said...: he has never seen a "rigged" market before.. "where everyone is selling and the market keeps going up.. it's a very scary situation..."; January 21, 2011 at 11:47 AM
ben22 said...: there's naz in the red

from a wave perspective, if the move off the recent highs is not impulsive then a correction pattern is not complete either and some further downside is likely, so this mornings highs off yesterday's lows could have been it.

Neely is shortinig again today, that's a handy profit from his first short trade and now he's adding to it "short on weakness"

my Q's spread is holding up ok, still with the small dollar position, looking to buy more there on strength.

but who needs charts.....; January 21, 2011 at 11:52 AM
Anonymous said...: b22-

this post-

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/how-much-has-the-fed-distorted-the-stock-market/-

is looking for your comment; January 21, 2011 at 11:57 AM
ben22 said...: Karen, it's sort of hard to get on the bandwagon of "everyone is selling" and he has no data that can help him understand people are selling stock to pay bills, he just pulled that out of his ass

everyone is selling and the put/call ratio is at what, 7 year lows? Sentiment on nearly every survey is at what....5 year bullish highs? Also, weren't equity inflows just positive? and on, and on.

what's best, how many of you want your money manager to say, well I feel stupid doing this but everyone else is....so

any takers?

saving that video.; January 21, 2011 at 11:59 AM
ben22 said...: ahab,

what am I going to say that I haven't already said before though? I'm just talking to myself dude and I want to hear my voice on Fed manipulation even less than everyone at TBP, I read that though, just to check it out.

nice little exercise in which there is no way to draw any conclusion's, just my opinion of course; January 21, 2011 at 12:01 PM
Jennifer said...: And that's why I don't go to TBP anymore ...there is nothing new being said over there.; January 21, 2011 at 12:09 PM
ben22 said...: well Jennifer, when we're in a typical recovery thing's are just boring I guess; January 21, 2011 at 12:19 PM
Anonymous said...: gotta roll- all be good . . .; January 21, 2011 at 12:21 PM
karen said...: ben.. that video is a saver for sure!! on so many levels.. said half his assets were in gold.. but it was a short term outlook using GLD!

that's my point about the price on gold right now.. too much margin, too many flakey newbies that'll dump as fast as my husband dumped his EM fund..; January 21, 2011 at 12:27 PM
Anonymous said...: SPX 1 minute, nice little cup-n-handle action last hour or so...; January 21, 2011 at 12:30 PM
ben22 said...: agreed Karen, I think it's funny when people say gold is a bubble, as in physical gold, silly.

but paper gold, that's different, and so you wonder what impact that could have on the physical, lots of hedge funds in that GLD trade too.

Keeping an eye on RUT today, run a quick overlay of it with the DOW.....this is what tops often look like. AFIA was hinting at this the last several weeks from what I could tell, high beta gets pitched for the safe "blue chips"; January 21, 2011 at 12:32 PM
karen said...: just got my MS missive.. buy goog to $750..

yeah, and look, you can buy even more aapl today! it's going to $400 4 sure!; January 21, 2011 at 12:33 PM
Boring Recovery said...: Ben - I am not sure if it is the recovery that is boring or TBP. Just kidding of course.

But it does kind of seem like most people have picked sides. Typical recover vs. Jobless recover, Fed's Manipulate the market vs The Market only does what the Market wants.

Then you have someone like BR throw out a bomb like that, well hell there really is no right or wrong answer to it and like you said, there is no way to prove it one way or another.

So if I understand what Jenniffer is saying, it's not so much the market that is boring, it is the constant rhetoric that pits Those vs Them and that does get kind of boring - IMO

So now that the Seahawks are out..LOL... Who do you have peg to go the big game?

Mangy Mutt; January 21, 2011 at 12:40 PM
karen said...: ben, exactly.. on gold.. the physical in your basement is what you want.. i'm accumulating cash in the house to go to one of these myriad gold shops on every corner to buy when it feels right ; ); January 21, 2011 at 12:40 PM
ben22 said...: Karen,

I use the list of dealers that were put in the CTC book, lucky for me one is in DE here a few miles from my office.

Also have the gold money account which was a pain to set up but easy to use after that, that's probably worth looking into if you want to buy a lot of gold and keep some of it out of the states.

Mutt,

yeah it is pretty boring the those vs. them isn't it. As for football, that NFC title game should be a great one I'd like to see the Pack go, I like Aaron Rodgers. AFC game should be good too, this might not be real popular around here but I'm tired of hearing about Rex Ryan so I'm all for the Steelers in that game. I wonder if Santonio Holmes can make a crazy grab to take down his old team. Should be some fun games to watch. I bought some salsa yesterday to prepare, passed on the catfood.; January 21, 2011 at 12:48 PM
ben22 said...: have you all seen the woman that fell into the fountain at the mall texting is now trying to sue?

GIB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

the video with her attorney is priceless where she warns "especially the younger generation" that this could happen to them, any time, anywhere.

just when you think you've seen a lot of dumb stuff, another Cathy Cruz Marrero makes you realize there's more, much more.; January 21, 2011 at 12:51 PM
karen said...: ben.. you don't remember but i am the one that told you about goldmoney.com a long long time ago!

thing with me is i don't want any more "accounts"
now, a few more gold watches i can deal with..

you know how i like to kiss! laughing.; January 21, 2011 at 12:51 PM
Colin said...: We have quietly moved mostly to the sideline in our muni experiment with a quick profit (holding a small position to keep my eye on the market). I think its time to wait and see on this one for a while...; January 21, 2011 at 12:52 PM
karen said...: i want to see what TBT does at 39..

colin, can't remember if you were MUB or IQI; January 21, 2011 at 12:57 PM
ben22 said...: Nice trade Colin, get yourself a big frou frou to celebrate.; January 21, 2011 at 12:57 PM
CV said...: Just pausing by "the digs" amidst errands...

new chart in thread

(spy with some after hrs. candles)

---

Gotta go... I'll have a NFC-AFC Championship thread up tomorrow...

Later traders :-)

CV; January 21, 2011 at 12:57 PM
karen said...: Diana Olick
Grubb&Ellis:Shadow space-leased but empty cubes, floors-vacated during recession will accomm. 1/3 of all net new demand in '11&1/4 in '12; January 21, 2011 at 12:58 PM
ben22 said...: Karen,

Oh, I remember you bringing it up back in the day. In fact, that was probably back when gold was sub 1k...; January 21, 2011 at 1:00 PM
Matthew said...: "everyone is selling"

Can we stop using phrases like "everyone is selling" and "more sellers than buyers?"

The last time I checked, you can't sell something without someone buying it. I have said this before--prices move because of the relative alacrity of sellers or buyers (i.e., who is more willing to make price concessions).

*(This is a pet peeve of mine, much like Hussman's pet peeve of market commentators talking about money "going into" or "going out of" secondary markets.); January 21, 2011 at 1:01 PM
karen said...: Missing you, Chet! hilarious avatar! my new one will be up soon.. can't decide on a camera..; January 21, 2011 at 1:01 PM
Colin said...: Went with a mix, but mostly picked up the garbage boys (IQI), and little of the Cali bonds, and a small slice of MUB. Holding on to some of the Calis and the MUB, but moved the IQI for some wait and see.; January 21, 2011 at 1:03 PM
karen said...: oh this is too much! On the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission’s main report, to be released Jan. 27 -

"“It will make interesting reading, but I don’t know anybody in a policy position that is waiting for” the report, said Wayne Abernathy, a former Treasury Department official who is now an executive vice president at the American Bankers Association in Washington. “They broke with the effort to form a consensus pretty early, and from then on people started discounting their work.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-21/financial-crisis-panel-will-deliver-three-separate-conclusions.html; January 21, 2011 at 1:04 PM
ben22 said...: Matthew,

where are you from? just curious.

and nice post; January 21, 2011 at 1:08 PM
karen said...: agree with you matthew, 100%.. i think it is more a question of semantics, however.. and some of us are more literal than others..; January 21, 2011 at 1:13 PM
karen said...: anyone want to take an unbiased stab at uso or dto?; January 21, 2011 at 1:15 PM
ben22 said...: funny headline:

"Google Shares Look Cheap After Management Shake-Up"

not that the shares look cheap, but the reason why, a management shake-up makes them cheap!; January 21, 2011 at 1:16 PM
karen said...: the H&S in USO is way to obvious to play out.. and ben, what do you see from a wave perspective..?; January 21, 2011 at 1:17 PM
Ambivalent said...: Ben - I am ambivalent about the Jet's/Steelers as I like them both about the same. The thing that concerns me is if the Jets win the SuperBowl, will there be a push to get more coaches with a "Ryan" like attitude?

The Packers/Bears game should be a good one and if the Packers win Green Bay can formally wipe away the Favre era. That guy was a great QB, he just did not know when to quit though, so instead of people saying "What would have happened if he played a couple more years" it is now. "Why'd he play so long"

Regarless of who wins on Sunday, we should have one of the best SuperBowls since 2004...Oh yea that is the year the Seahawks went.

Mutt; January 21, 2011 at 1:17 PM
karen said...: well, headlines are my main peeve!; January 21, 2011 at 1:18 PM
ben22 said...: Mutt,

new coach in Oakland said they will compete for the SB next year after winning the division so I'm prettay pumped because he wouldn't lie about that.; January 21, 2011 at 1:20 PM
karen said...: Diana Olick
Fitch: Loan mods quicken for U.S. CMBS spec. svcers. $27.9B 3Q'10, more than last 4 yrs comb. as liquidity returning to CMBS mkt.; January 21, 2011 at 1:21 PM
ben22 said...: karen,

I've never really traded our counted oil, did that USO split or is it really just down from $117? it's basically flatlined since June 2009, what an ugly chart over that period.

volume footprint is dead since May 2010 but the basic trendline from Aug 24/10 still in tact depending on how you draw it.

prechter has a count for oil but it's nonsense, I'm pretty sure he's calling for $10-$12/bbl.

I really like AT's dollar charts right now, not a perfect 1 for 1 but if the dollar is about to put in an extended fifth wave I wouldn't want to be very long of the oil.

sorry none of that is so helpful; January 21, 2011 at 1:25 PM
karen said...: you all will love these charts!

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/gdp-growth-vs-market-appreciation-post-recession; January 21, 2011 at 1:26 PM
ben22 said...: traded or counted....that should read; January 21, 2011 at 1:26 PM
karen said...: ben, you are so funny! USO did not split and even if it had it would be adjusted for that on the chart.. look at $wtic.. yeah, it split, all right.. i am laughing hysterically right now.. remember crude? i went from $150 to $35, hahahaha.. split into splinters.. LOL; January 21, 2011 at 1:29 PM
ben22 said...: couldn't get to the charts, I just spit my green tea all over reading this:

"the Fed can keep the spigots open indefinitely"

oh really.....; January 21, 2011 at 1:29 PM
ben22 said...: Karen, I know it didn't split! I'm just being a dick for all the inflationists.

hehehe; January 21, 2011 at 1:30 PM
karen said...: some good info here:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/russell-2000s-highest-beta-stocks; January 21, 2011 at 1:30 PM
ben22 said...: and you commented at TBP....did you read the comment disclaimer before you did?; January 21, 2011 at 1:31 PM
karen said...: http://www.thestreet.com/story/10980594/1/aig-warrant-terms-befuddle-some-investors.html; January 21, 2011 at 1:34 PM
18 said...: FYI Karen...

18 numbers applied to SPY

key 18 supports for SPY; January 21, 2011 at 1:36 PM
Anonymous said...: Crude Oil 89.31 -0.28 -0.31
Natural Gas 4.737 +0.045 +0.96
Corn 661.0 +7.0 +1.07
Soybeans 1418.00 +3.75 +0.26
30yr Bond 119.78125 +0.31250 +0.26
10yr Note 120.000000 +0.171875 +0.14
NY Gold 1342.3 -4.2 -0.31
NY Silver 27.445 -0.028 -0.10
Emini S&P 1281.75 +5.50 +0.43
Emini Nasdaq 2277.75 -3.75 -0.16
Emini Dow 11825 +51 +0.43
http://www.ino.com/

CME:DC CLASS III MILK Feb 15.40 16.03 15.40 15.98 +0.64 +4.17% 13:23 all months
NYBOT:CC COCOA Mar 3193 3250 3157 3180 +2 +0.06% 13:24 all months
NYBOT:KC COFFEE Mar 232.90 241.80 232.85 240.35 +8.55 +3.67% 13:24 all months
NYBOT:CT COTTON #2 Mar 153.90 156.94 153.72 156.94 +4.00 +2.62% 13:22 all months
CME:LB LUMBER (RANDOM LENGTH) Mar 313.4 313.4 312.0 312.0 +8.6 +2.83% 11:42 all months
CME:LBS LUMBER (RANDOM LENGTH) Mar 304.4 313.4 304.4 313.4 +10.0 +3.28% 12:40 all months
CME:DA MILK CLASS III Feb 15.90 15.90 15.90 15.90 +0.56 +3.65% 12:16 all months
NYBOT:OJ ORANGE JUICE-A Mar 176.80 176.95 172.60 173.50 -2.50 -1.41% 13:24 all months
NYBOT:SB SUGAR #11-WORLD Mar 31.39 32.35 31.11 32.31 +1.00 +3.18% 13:24 all months
NYBOT:SF SUGAR #16 May 39.00 39.00 39.00 39.00 +0.15 +0.39% 13:14 all months
http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/futboard/#foodandfiber

AAIP; January 21, 2011 at 1:42 PM
karen said...: Ben! you keep making me laugh!! i know, i know.. the spigots..; January 21, 2011 at 1:43 PM
karen said...: 18! thanks for that! i like those charts that way..; January 21, 2011 at 1:45 PM
karen said...: read the last sentence carefully:

Crude for March delivery (CLH11), the benchmark contract, retreated 15 cents, or 0.2%, to $89.37 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The contract traded as low as $89.15 and as high as $90.22 during the session.

For the week, oil has lost about 2%.

Volumes were low Friday, with traders waiting for more clues on the state of the global economy.; January 21, 2011 at 1:48 PM
karen said...: this is gonna be a must read!

http://dealbreaker.com/2011/01/greenlight-capital-has-a-question-for-ben-bernanke/greenlight-q4_2010-letter/; January 21, 2011 at 1:54 PM
Anonymous said...: the BAC announcement was a beaut..

that dude, Mohnihan(sp?), looked like he was going to have kittens..

good thing he's not a "Professional Liar"--it'd be 'catfood' for him..

ibid.; January 21, 2011 at 1:56 PM
karen said...: Never mind my 1:54.. it wasn't a must read.. sorry. Leaving it up there in case you do want to read it..; January 21, 2011 at 2:01 PM
Anonymous said...: Researcher Controls Worm by Stimulating Individual Neurons with Laser
January 21st, 2011

Via: Github:

Andrew’s research is called CoLBeRT: Controlling Locomotion and Behavior in Real-Time and works by running real-time analysis on video of a 1mm long specially bred light-sensitive C. elegans worm. The CoLBeRT system tracks the worm as it moves and shines laser light on specific neurons as the worm is moving to stimulate or inhibit those neurons.

The system can make the worm paralyzed, lay eggs, back up, speed up or sense touch in different areas of its body, all by directing laser light into specific neurons. That’s right, I said lay eggs.
http://cryptogon.com/?p=20050

niice..; January 21, 2011 at 2:02 PM
Jennifer said...: Do we need more worms?

Anybody catch that SHIBOR chart that was up a minute ago? 7.4 ... oops.; January 21, 2011 at 2:05 PM
ben22 said...: one of my BAC clients told me on tuesday that internally some people continue to discuss how Countrywide will be a "good deal" over the long haul.

@18,

do you ever try to apply the number to other things, dollar, bonds, etc? I mean, your 18 calls have been pretty damn accurate for a lot of months now.; January 21, 2011 at 2:06 PM
karen said...: ben, internally, many had no clue what was coming down the pipeline at the banks, remember?; January 21, 2011 at 2:09 PM
Anonymous said...: Smartphones: Radio Firmware Vulnerability Allows Attackers to Take Control of iPhone or Android Devices
January 19th, 2011

Via: InfoWorld:

More than three years after the iPhone was first hacked, computer security experts think they’ve found a whole new way to break into mobile phones — one that could become a big headache for Apple, or for smartphone makers using Google’s Android software.

In a presentation set for next week’s Black Hat conference in Washington D.C., University of Luxembourg research associate Ralf-Philipp Weinmann says he plans to demonstrate his new technique on an iPhone and an Android device, showing how they could be converted into clandestine spying systems. “I will demo how to use the auto-answer feature present in most phones to turn the telephone into a remote listening device,” he said in an e-mail interview....
http://cryptogon.com/?p=20029

ibid.; January 21, 2011 at 2:11 PM
Jennifer said...: I didn't even know that worms laid eggs. I find this very disturbing.; January 21, 2011 at 2:11 PM
karen said...: IMF approves $30 bln credit line for Poland http://goo.gl/Fl5n8; January 21, 2011 at 2:12 PM
Anonymous said...: Not The Onion: NSA Turns to Smart Phones for Recruitment
January 19th, 2011

Via: Defense Systems:

Having a smart phone may give you an advantage if you’re looking for a job with the National Security Agency. The agency on Jan. 13 announced the launch of two new smartphone applications that are part of NSA’s largest hiring effort in recent years.

The NSA Career Links Smartphone application—which is available for download through iTunes—delivers real-time NSA updates directly to the user’s iPhone. This includes information about available employment opportunities, career fairs, and agency news. Users can also view videos highlighting NSA employee experiences, according to an agency announcement.

NSA is also employing smart phone tagging on many of its print-based recruitment advertisements. That will allow smart-phone users to scan tags in the print ads, which will then show them a video connected to the ad.

Related: The CIA and NSA Want You to Be Their Friend on Facebook
http://cryptogon.com/?p=20027; January 21, 2011 at 2:12 PM
ben22 said...: Karen,

I remember better than most, which is why I don't buy into the manipulation meme and especially laugh when I hear that is STILL everywhere in these banks, people should read the big short

it wasn't some of the banks, it was basically all of them, blindsided and then some, and many of these guys had no idea what they were even trading though they had billions and billions of dollars at risk.

considering last year as in 2010 was a giant year for subprime issuance on things like subprime auto loan, despite the claims by people that banks dont' want that kind of risk, I'd put money on the fact that traders are owning paper and they have no clue what it is all over again. And why wouldn't they.... the incentives on Wall street not only didn't change, they've gotten even worse since the RE bubble, in a roundabout way the QE discussion is really nothing more than Fedspeak way to say, we'll privatize all the gains and socialize every loss.

back then the whole system was about to come down and nobody had a clue what to do, today the Fed has it all figured out?.....puhleese.; January 21, 2011 at 2:17 PM
Anonymous said...: Utah City May Use Blimp as Anti-Crime Spy in the Sky
January 19th, 2011

Via: Reuters:

A proposed unmanned floating airship surveillance system is being hailed by city officials in Ogden, Utah as one way to fight crime in its neighborhoods.

“We believe it will be a deterrent to crime when it is out and about and will help us solve crimes more quickly when they do occur,” Ogden City Mayor Matthew Godfrey told Reuters.

The airship entails military technology now available to local law enforcement, he said.

Research Credit: T

Posted in Police State, Surveillance, Technology | Top Of Page | Leave a Comment »
http://cryptogon.com/?p=20031

good to see that the AfPakIraq "War" is paying Dividends..

cryptogon is a good site, carries other types of articles, as well..

AAIP; January 21, 2011 at 2:17 PM
karen said...: "In short, we may soon discover that the home loans made in 2009 were far worse than is currently appreciated. And Bank of America was the second biggest lender in that market. The “lingering” mortgage mess may wind up lingering a lot longer than anyone thinks."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/41195932; January 21, 2011 at 2:19 PM
Anonymous said...: "...the incentives on Wall street not only didn't change, they've gotten even worse since the RE bubble, in a roundabout way the QE discussion is really nothing more than Fedspeak way to say, we'll privatize all the gains and socialize every loss..."

yep, much, too much, like that..

ibid.; January 21, 2011 at 2:19 PM
Anonymous said...: J

Even more disturbing- worms are hermaphrodites..; January 21, 2011 at 2:22 PM
ben22 said...: "In short, we may soon discover that the home loans made in 2009 were far worse than is currently appreciated."

DING !!!; January 21, 2011 at 2:24 PM
ben22 said...: ibid, 2:17

authoritarianism at its finest

if you see something, say something, but if there's a blimp, you won't need to

the all seeing eye, not just for Lord of The Rings anymore.; January 21, 2011 at 2:25 PM
Anonymous said...: this is an amazing story..

"It's Been A Living Nightmare" - JPMorgan Admits To Illegally Overcharging Thousands of Troops on Mortgages, And Wrongful Military Foreclosures

http://dailybail.com/home/its-been-a-living-nightmare-jpmorgan-admits-to-illegally-ove.html; January 21, 2011 at 2:26 PM
Anonymous said...: "...Brutal cold has invaded the upper-Midwest. A record low at International Falls is not an easy thing to break. No problem today (01/21/11), as temps have fallen into the minus 40s F (or C, if you prefer). The cold air pushes eastward and reinforces during the next several days over New England...."

Bring in the Brass Monkey, when it gets like that..

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/01/21/extreme-cold-warnings-minnesota-record-lows-below-40f/; January 21, 2011 at 2:29 PM
karen said...: worms do lay eggs.. i read it on the internet : ); January 21, 2011 at 2:31 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Brass monkeys are definitely on the way, chaps.
Single digit midgets for temps this weekend.

TLT bounced nicely off that low this morning.
For those who watch these things.

Enjoyed the EEM analysis. Surely a correction coming.
A trip to the 50 DMA woodshed?; January 21, 2011 at 2:38 PM
Anonymous said...: I see you are all discussing the optogenetics tools that are amusing large numbers of neuroscientists. You use a laser to open an ion channel and move the membrane potential one way or the other, exciting or inhibiting individual neurons. That's what the worm work was about.; January 21, 2011 at 2:39 PM
Anonymous said...: "...For countless decades, Americans have been responding through protests, lawsuits, and “voting the bums out.” Yet, year in and year out, federal power always grows. And it doesn’t matter which political part is in power, or what person occupies the white house either.

THE RIGHTFUL REMEDY

In 1798, Thomas Jefferson wrote that “whensoever the general government assumes undelegated powers….a nullification of the act is the rightful remedy.” [emphasis added]

Notice that TJ didn’t advise us to use nullification as a remedy “once in a while.” And he certainly didn’t tell us that a nullification is the rightful remedy after “we vote some bums out” or “we sue the federal government in federal court” or after anything else for that matter. Jefferson was pretty straightforward and recommended that every single time the federal government exercises powers not delegated to it in the constitution (there’s about 30 powers and nothing more), that we’re to reject and nullify those acts on a state level as they happen.

HAPPENING NOW

Already, more than two dozen states have virtually stopped the 2005 Real ID act dead in its tracks. How? By refusing to implement it. Fifteen states – most recently Arizona – are using the principles of the 10th Amendment to actively defy federal laws (and a supreme court ruling, too!) on marijuana. Eight states have passed Firearms Freedom Acts in an attempt to reject some federal gun laws and regulations. And seven states have passed Health Care Freedom Acts to block health care mandates from being enforced...."
http://www.tenthamendmentcenter.com/2011/01/13/null-void-of-no-effect/

last one, off for some olde-fashioned Snow Shovelling..

AAIP; January 21, 2011 at 2:40 PM
Not Leftback said...: So a really smart educated person told me, anyway.; January 21, 2011 at 2:40 PM
Anonymous said...: Speaking of Mr Jefferson he would NOT be happy to see Bill Daley in the WH, Jeff Immelt about to join OBANANA and presumably Saint Jamie waiting to take over from Tiny Tim at Treasury.

The takeover is almost complete. Simon Johnson must be apoplectic. We certainly are.; January 21, 2011 at 2:42 PM
Anonymous said...: Real Time91.28 0.48 (0.53%) 2:41PM EST

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=TLT&ql=1

TLT is looking good..; January 21, 2011 at 2:42 PM
Anonymous said...: off for some olde-fashioned Snow Shovelling..

Mark, the WSJ had a guide on How to Shovel Your Driveway.
Too funny...; January 21, 2011 at 2:42 PM
Jennifer said...: Seems like Monday is shaping up to be very interesting...zero hedge is reporting on 1) Bangladesh's 3rd crash, 2) head of MERS resigning, 3) SHIBOR spreads blowing out.; January 21, 2011 at 2:45 PM
Jennifer said...: Lets not forget...for all his words of wisdom, TJ did die bankrupt. Monticello is lovely though. One of my law school professors arranged for a private tour for me and an architect friend which was pretty cool, in a geeky sort of way.; January 21, 2011 at 2:47 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: We are debating the following:

A short of EEM. Juicy.
Going directly at China, the weakest link. Tasty.
A full blooded Widowmaker, aimed at the gold miners.

Tepper gifted me a nice pop this morning.
I am stripped to a core position in DF now, which is 1%.
Would have a lot more but no divvy.
- one of my rules is don't sit for no yield.

Will retract a bit more HYG today, nice pop.
I want to go back to a core of 10-15% of my portfolio.
Had gone out as long as 22%, but that's too much risk.; January 21, 2011 at 2:50 PM
Anonymous said...: SHIBOR screams China property and stock market crash.
All the other EMs will go too on a dollar carry unwind.

Fun....; January 21, 2011 at 2:51 PM
Shoot It Down said...: AAIP - The first thing I thought when reading that blip article was to shoot it down.

Heck it would be fun, a single shot .22 would reak some pretty serious havoc on it, I wonder how many times they would repair it, before they abondon it?

You know it is FAR better to use those resource to catch a crimal in the act then to use the resourse to stop the criminal before he acts.

Mutt; January 21, 2011 at 2:51 PM
karen said...: LB.. TBT hasn't broken down yet either.. today is a limbo day..; January 21, 2011 at 2:52 PM
Mr Jefferson said...: TJ did die bankrupt. Monticello is lovely though.

Well, Jennifer, I had a nice house and a lot of sex. You can't take it with you, i what I heard.

These bankers of yours are the most dastardly scoundrels. Takes me back to my battles with Hamilton....; January 21, 2011 at 2:53 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: K

I just don't think bonds are interesting here but I am concerned that risk is being underpriced almost everywhere just now.

Be cautious when CNBC shills are smiling, and greedy when they are hiding under the table...; January 21, 2011 at 2:54 PM
Anonymous said...: Rather an interesting commentary on yet another way that the big companies screw small biz:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-21/deadbeat-companies-deserve-obama-wakeup-call-commentary-by-jonathan-alter.html; January 21, 2011 at 2:57 PM
Anonymous said...: @Mutt, I had the exact same reaction -- shoot that thing down, and I don't even own a gun! ;-); January 21, 2011 at 2:59 PM
Colin said...: Honestly on the CNBC smiles. Has an intrepid analyst out there created a CNBC optimism index based on facial expression and what they say. There just has to be something there...; January 21, 2011 at 3:02 PM
karen said...: A funny tweet I just received:

I hope Trump runs...... into a haircut.; January 21, 2011 at 3:05 PM
karen said...: i am getting anxious about the melt up..; January 21, 2011 at 3:06 PM
bob said...: K

Ever see the Letterman "game" Trump or monkey?

He has two haircuts, with the faces covered, you have to guess who is trump, who is the monkey.

Very difficult.; January 21, 2011 at 3:07 PM
Jennifer said...: Has anyone read the latest Martin Armstrong write up yet? If so, thoughts?; January 21, 2011 at 3:10 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: We fancy a massive swing with the widowmaker.

China is really in trouble but we think that the PMs are going to go first, as any incremental tightening will hit those ZH margin buyers in a variety of places, like their ass and their wallet.

We will do a half now and see what Monday brings us. There might be a bit of JOHNNY action on Monday and then we can do some EEM on the short side as well.; January 21, 2011 at 3:10 PM
karen said...: Bob, no and i couldn't find it.. but here is Donald Trumps Top Ten Financial Tips on Letterman..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hmMkZD4VcNQ&playnext=1&list=PLBF53DC4E29BFC34B&index=17; January 21, 2011 at 3:11 PM
18 said...: @ ben

I've dabbled with the 18 numbers in a few things. GOLD prices seem to work on the "18" numbers but not as good as on SPX. Also, hourly or minute charts seem to show the change in direction @ 18 levels (or fibs of 18 levels) better than daily charts.

Using 18 as years, it somewhat tracks the bull/bear markets...

2000-2018...bear
1982-2000...bull
1964-1982...bear
1946-1964...bull
1928-1946...bear

GOLD... let's see if it bounces off 1332 (18 X 74) like it did the 3rd week last November.

SPX... minute chart... look at the first seven trading days this year, pretty close to trading between 1260-1278,

SPX... last seven trading days were a little erractic but the high was 1296.06, then it dipped to 1271 (.618 of 1260-1278), now were consolidating near 1284.88 (.382 of 1278-1296)

So there may be something to this stuff...; January 21, 2011 at 3:16 PM
ben22 said...: hmmm, it's almost like a larger benner cycle; January 21, 2011 at 3:18 PM
karen said...: dia volume trailing off.. there was a big burst at 1:10 which ramped the index up 20 pts.. that said, overall volume is higher today than average.; January 21, 2011 at 3:20 PM
ben22 said...: China markets look sick, sounds like a good trade. They are going to tighten, it's already starting with all the off balance sheet loans coming back on the books, can't have a billion people in a riot over food inflation.; January 21, 2011 at 3:20 PM
ben22 said...: distribution?; January 21, 2011 at 3:21 PM
karen said...: seems as tho we are at the tip of yet another triangle.. break up or break down.. fip a coin : ); January 21, 2011 at 3:21 PM
ben22 said...: quadruple top in 10 yr yields????

I doubt it....that is going to break one way or the other real soon; January 21, 2011 at 3:23 PM
karen said...: the euro is funny today.. turned its trend chart up..
speaking of UUP.. at low of day.. uso still down tho.. take note of that..; January 21, 2011 at 3:24 PM
karen said...: forget what you call that formation.. in $tnx.. oh yeah.. a flag.. and it's a bullish flag.. LOL.; January 21, 2011 at 3:25 PM
bob said...: From "trade what you see"

They use different numbers for Harmonics in sp500, 5.4, 6.85, 8.7. Inflation? lol

Bond market- 20 ticks
Crude oil- 44 and 88
Dow- 35, 105, 70
Euro- 35, 70
Gold- 11, 17
Silver- 18, 36, 12
Wheat- 11, 17
Soybeans- 18, 36

Seems like 18 is pretty popular; January 21, 2011 at 3:26 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Why trade a backstopped/rigged market at all, SPOOZ, when you can access something truly vulnerable?

China is already breaking down to new lows. Attack the weakest member of the herd. That's how we hunt....

Slightly concerned that if a panic gets going in Asia, they will buy gold. Maybe short EEM or FXI is the most conservative and highest percentage play here. I can leave a small active widowmaker on.; January 21, 2011 at 3:27 PM
karen said...: but if yields do break higher.. maybe we duck the other way and buy TLT.. on the fake out..; January 21, 2011 at 3:28 PM
Jennifer said...: someone's starting to bid up puts...the ones I've got have mysteriously gone up in price even though the udnerlying hasn't really changed.; January 21, 2011 at 3:30 PM
ben22 said...: Karen,

I suppose one could argue that the wave count on the 10 yr is impulsive, we are in wave 4, wave 5 UP still to come....not sure over here.

EWI counts the yield but I don't get that service from them anymore; January 21, 2011 at 3:30 PM
Anonymous said...: done w/ Round One..

starting to get a little nippy & windy out there..
~~~

"...Over the next couple of months, refineries will conduct regular maintenance to prepare for the changeover to summer driving mixes. That could affect supplies, but gas prices should remain steady to a few cents more, according to oil analyst Tom Kloza of Oil Price Information Service.

By spring he expects the average price to rise to between $3.50 and $3.75 a gallon. Ritterbusch expects $3.20 to $3.25 a gallon by Memorial Day.

For every penny the price at the pump increases, it costs consumers overall an additional $4 million, according to Cameron Hanover analyst Peter Beutel. If the price goes up a dime a gallon, consumers pay $40 million more each day for that increase.

Crude oil prices fell again on Friday as traders speculated about whether China may impose more restrictions to control the growth of its economy, and looked for more signs that the U.S. economy is headed for better days.

Benchmark oil for March delivery fell 48 cents to settle at $89.11 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

In other Nymex trading, heating oil rose 2.76 cents to settle at $2.6508 a gallon, and gasoline added 3.64 cents to settle at $2.4589 a gallon. Natural gas for March delivery gained 5.1 cents to settle at $4.743 per 1,000 cubic feet.

In London, Brent crude rose $1.02 to settle at $97.60 a barrel on the ICE futures exchange..."
http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=689758385772792; January 21, 2011 at 3:31 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: One last time into the breach in defense of TLT:

TNX and TYX are different beasts. Remember that 10s30s is very wide here by historical standards and 2s30s is extraterrestrial.

TYX will be controlled. They need 30y mtg at 5% or less, or the bankstas will be SOL. So TNX can get away to 4 or more, but TYX will be nailed to the range. If the economy slows, we get the flattener.

Gary Shilling can give you chapter and verse on this but you have me instead, a poor substitute but better looking with more hair.; January 21, 2011 at 3:31 PM
An American House said...: I am so screwed if the long bond gets away.; January 21, 2011 at 3:32 PM
St Jamie said...: Me too.; January 21, 2011 at 3:32 PM
Anonymous said...: J-

Puts have been incredibly inexpensive..

AAIP; January 21, 2011 at 3:32 PM
Gary Shilling said...: Not going to happen.; January 21, 2011 at 3:32 PM
Anonymous said...: 19.79 1.36 (7.38%) 3:32PM EST

Last Trade: 19.87
Trade Time: 3:17PM EST
Change: 1.44 (7.82%)
Prev Close: 18.43
Open: 19.31
Bid: 19.87 x 30500
Ask: 19.88 x 24500
1y Target Est: 21.64
Day's Range: 19.25 - 19.97
52wk Range: 13.75 - 19.97
Volume: 185,181,033
Avg Vol (3m): 54,590,500
Market Cap: 211.73B
P/E (ttm): 21.69
EPS (ttm): 0.92
Div & Yield: 0.56 (3.10%)
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GE&ql=1

should be interesting to see how much of this Ramp, GE can hold onto..

ibid.; January 21, 2011 at 3:34 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: China shorts.
Good fundies and a chart even Karen could love:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=CZI:US; January 21, 2011 at 3:36 PM
ben22 said...: seeing the same thing Jennifer, there have been lots of massive bearish spreads put on over the last three weeks, most of them target Feb and March and it's not isolated to banks or anything like that, I'm seeing them lots of places

so there are folks out there with large sums of money starting to make some big bear bets

AT commented over at TBP that it felt like there were a lot of people that wanted to be short this pig....we shoudl find out pretty soon how many.

and wow, just looked at Baltic Dry, still going down; January 21, 2011 at 3:37 PM
Anonymous said...: CRB Index
333.99
+2.09 +0.58%

anyone betting the DOW closes at 11,888 ?; January 21, 2011 at 3:37 PM
Anonymous said...: If China crashes, late arrivals in GE and multinationals may not be that happy....; January 21, 2011 at 3:37 PM
18 said...: SPX looks like it's almost at the top of wave 18 to me...

:/; January 21, 2011 at 3:37 PM
ben22 said...: if China goes down hard CAT could be a nice short, haven't looked at that chart in a little while.; January 21, 2011 at 3:39 PM
Anonymous said...: Baltic Dry going down b/c Chinese pig farmers ran out of places to store copper and unobtainium.

A massive China crash might reveal more fraud in their market than anyone can possibly believe. I bet some of these companies are HQ'd at a rickshaw stand in Chengdu. Lots of life savings about to be lost...; January 21, 2011 at 3:40 PM
Anonymous said...: the Consolidation-Train is still on the Tracks..

(AP:SOUTH MILWAUKEE, Wis.) Bucyrus (byoo-CY'-rus) International Inc. says its shareholders have approved a $7.6 billion buyout by Caterpillar Inc.

Bucyrus makes surface mining equipment used for coal, copper, iron ore, oil sands and other minerals. Caterpillar is the world's largest construction- and mining-equipment maker.

Caterpillar offered $92 per share, a 32 percent premium to Bucyrus' closing price on the November day that the companies announced the acquisition.

Bucyrus says about 73.8 percent of the total outstanding shares voted Thursday in favor of the deal.

The acquisition still requires approval by regulators. Bucyrus says it expects the deal to close later this year.

Shares of South Milwaukee, Wis.,-based Bucyrus nudged up 3 cents to $90.38 in afternoon trading Friday. Shares of Peoria, Ill.,-based Caterpillar dropped 72 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $92.89..."
http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=68975838577480; January 21, 2011 at 3:40 PM
waving @ everyone said...: "18 said...
SPX looks like it's almost at the top of wave 18 to me..."

Andy?
have you calculated a wave 18 before?; January 21, 2011 at 3:41 PM
Anonymous said...: Marc Faber touting "reverse decoupling", EMs down and DMs OK. But a lot of our market is leveraged to ONE TRADE via the dollar.

Generally speaking, divvys are not dollar hedges, should be OK, but US and UK materials and miners are going to be hit hard by an EM crash.

It is coming.; January 21, 2011 at 3:42 PM
Anonymous said...: time for Round-Two..~

ibid.; January 21, 2011 at 3:42 PM
Matthew said...: @ben22:

I moved back to NW Ohio where I am currently "on the beach."

Too young (28) and not rich enough to retire, but too well off to seriously look for a job :D Maybe I should go back to school.

With the weather the way it is, I'm going to read through an entire library this winter.

Fishing this winter is terrible in Ohio and SW Michigan. I can count the number of perch caught on fingers and toes).; January 21, 2011 at 3:44 PM
karen said...: CZI looks good! especially on a weekly.. a much different chart than FXP.. and let's hope it trades better.; January 21, 2011 at 3:45 PM
bob said...: http://www.forexlive.com/161296/all/its-the-least-wonderful-time-of-the-year

Why I like Jamie...; January 21, 2011 at 3:45 PM
ben22 said...: ben22 said... 10:07
Karen,

we may see the high of the day at the open, no trading for me today

good luck

Update

I SHOULD have traded today, this move isn't over, even if it's a correction.

Be careful squad, the C wave might have started

thank god the Fed knows these elliott wave patterns.; January 21, 2011 at 3:46 PM
18 said...: SPX... 1282.25... (.236 fib of 1278-1296)

just saying...; January 21, 2011 at 3:49 PM
ben22 said...: @Matthew,

nice, not too far from my home town. Lake not frozen over, no ice fishing?

back home it was a pretty bad year for the perch from what I heard but the walleye were good.

Karen, how many perch have you caught lately?; January 21, 2011 at 3:49 PM
bob said...: http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/01/mass-supreme-court-to-consider-whether-buyers-out-of-faulty-foreclosures-actually-own-property.html

Also worth a read...; January 21, 2011 at 3:52 PM
ben22 said...: who knows if the SHIBOR blowing up leads to the big drop now but peeps gonna find out real quick Benny has not printed enough to provide liquidity

not even close when the debts are considered, not even a rounding error in fact.; January 21, 2011 at 3:52 PM
karen said...: oops, that last burst of dia volume didn't find much buying alacrity..

i will be using that word everyday : ); January 21, 2011 at 3:53 PM
Matthew said...: The lakes I have been fishing have 8-10 inches of ice. They are fine. The fish are just being too cautious.

I can't speak to the ice on Erie, as I don't want to be the idiot on the news who needed rescue by hovercraft. I don't fish on that lake during the winter.; January 21, 2011 at 3:54 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Hope you all noticed I don't even bother hedging rate risk any more with TBT, unless I am heading into a ADP/NFP event, PPI, or a long bond auction, and even the latter, I don't usually.

TLT forming a bottom. We have called all the major bond market turns for about two years, within a month or two, without fail...; January 21, 2011 at 3:56 PM
ben22 said...: last time I was on lake erie was on my way back over from Middlebass and a long night with a bottle of makers mark, real rough waters on the way over.....ugh, I can still taste it.; January 21, 2011 at 3:56 PM
karen said...: http://www.hedgeye.com/unlocked_ideas/11365

Conclusion: We believe U.S. Treasury issuance over the coming three years could be ~34% higher than expectations. Increasing supply is bad for price.

Position: Short Treasuries via the etf SHY; January 21, 2011 at 3:58 PM
ben22 said...: indeed you have AFIA, most recently last fall, and I have noticed you stopped talking about hedging

crazy risk taker, ROR; January 21, 2011 at 3:59 PM
Anonymous said...: that wound up easy enough..
~~

a·lac·ri·ty (-lkr-t)
n.
1. Cheerful willingness; eagerness.
2. Speed or quickness; celerity.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Latin alacrits, from alacer, lively.]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

a·lacri·tous (-ts) adj.

The American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, Fourth Edition copyright ©2000 by Houghton Mifflin Company. Updated in 2009. Published by Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/alacrity

k-

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/celerity is the real sleeper..

ibid.

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/ibid.

the full Latin, is, actually, even 'funnier'

(Literary & Literary Critical Terms) ibidem
[Latin: in the same place]; January 21, 2011 at 4:00 PM
ben22 said...: "Increasing supply is bad for price"

lmfao

wrong

this statement holds no water in markets whatsoever, now I'll have to read the article for his "proof"; January 21, 2011 at 4:00 PM
A fixed income analyst to be named later said...: Dumped a little HYG, to cash.

Erie is amazingly shallow in many places. You can walk out for miles from those smaller Canadian islands.

C called, just as I was trying to execute a trade.
Bastards, I got it off tho. Marketing call at 3.59 ???

CZI is too thin, illiquid. EDZ was the way to go for now.

13% short EMs, 4% short gold. We may add on Monday.
14% long single name us equities.

So this is a classic pairs strategy (long US, short EM) for now.; January 21, 2011 at 4:03 PM
Anonymous said...: Karen,

We like hedgeeye, and we agree on SHY. We hate SHY.

US govt has to issue more front end, b/c maturity is getting shorter.
DO NOT BUY SHY. You will be annihilated at some point.
There is no reward in short term Ts. Trade TLT all you want...; January 21, 2011 at 4:06 PM
ben22 said...: I knew some guys that walked across the lake erie to Canada one winter when it was frozen, took a couple PB&J's for the trip, they wanted to go to Canada to get some Blue eh.

I've gotten stuck out pretty far when some storms have come up, that lake is scary as hell when that happens

my super smart buddy now making old spice body wash for P&G sunk a small sailboat in the lake, never put his plugs in.....; January 21, 2011 at 4:06 PM
karen said...: you might call that a bearish engulfing on the weekly $rut chart..

definitely on the $tran..

$indu about 1100 pts above its 50 ma on the weekly chart.. i think we can stick a fork in it on monday..; January 21, 2011 at 4:10 PM

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Morning Corner 1.21.11

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