Morning Audibles

Day 9 of JBTFD (seriously - look at the daily candles since that video came out on December 2nd)... Or, in honor of Houston's ferocious attempt at a comeback... We'll call it "JBTFD+9"... Here's what's on the agenda for all you "economic girly men" to consider to get us thru to JBTFD+10... (annotated - for you Keynesians out there who skipped ECON 101, and went straight to writing dissertations on avoiding Depressions)...

8:30 AM Core PPI - (how much it costs to make a catfood widget).

8:30 AM Retail Sales - (What you can spend after you return & redeem the 5 cent deposit on the can of catfood you used).
8:30 AM Retail Sales ex-auto - (same - minus your "cash for clunker" incentive for buying that "coal fired" VOLT from Government Motors).
10:00 AM Business Inventories - (How much catfood is sitting in warehouses. Or, how much copper plumbing and pipes are sitting in the warehouses of Mafia types and "fences", after having been stolen from houses because the price of copper is sky high due to the government mandate to build electric cars to buy off the democrat union vote, assist in efforts to curb global warming, wean us off foreign oil).
2:15 PM FOMC Rate Decision - (The advance warning that your catfood will triple in cost by next year)

Surely, anxious traders (when not engaged in JBingTFD), will be waiting in awe inspired anticipation for the words of THE GREAT BERNANK... I'm so excited myself, I contacted my good friend "Dirk Diggler" to record a song in honor of his genius in gravity defying plate spinning, economic rape & pillage, shrewd policymaking & lever pulling...

U GOT THE TOUCH


Whadda u guys think? Ya think the bass is taking away from the vocals? We want to get this track laid down right!

As a sidenote... Many of you may not know, but Dirk Diggler was also known to "INSPIRE" a whole new generation of award achievers...


BARRY SOETORO as Brock Obama


Let's look back at an anthology of the "Brock" legend... From humble beginnings to meteoric rise!... A STAR IS PORN!...


"Let's keep Rockin' & Rollin' Man!"... We've feasted on the autobiographies... All that's left to do now is the final "Brock" documentary film...


Of course, when things get tough, Brock will be the first one to explain to you how he "inherited" all the problems he faces... He needs to remind you in no unsimple terms...

"What can I say?... It's jealousy, it's deceitfulness, it's vindictiveness, it's all that stuff, you know?... I mean, but, God, what can you expect when you're on top...you know... it's like... Napoleon, when he was the king... you know people would like, constantly try and conquer him... you know... in the Roman Empire, so it's like history repeating itself all over again..."

So try and cut him & the Bernank some slack & JBTFD...

262 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   201 – 262 of 262   Newer›   Newest»
Anonymous said...

OBUMMER: Alright St. Warren, but the effing gecko has to GO.

foghorn

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

We discussed long ago that the Fed would have to buy munis or buy Ts to support the buying in the muni space.

You are HERE. Welcome to ZIRP. Enter the liquidity trap.
The event horizon is shrinking.

It was a 4% TNX, it is now 3.5%. We will not see 4%.
Sorry, Mrs Caron, Jimmy hasn't got a clue.
In fact he is a f*ckwit.

ZIRP, people.

CV said...

"how about now, how about now, how about now, like an annoying kid on a long road trip."

"How now brown cow" - and other classic alliterations...

http://tschong.files.wordpress.com/2009/06/how-now-brown-cow1.jpg

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

We are beginning to fill our boots today in the fixed income area. Not moving directly into the Treasury space as yet as spread product will attract buyers first.

LQD looks good for the first time in a long time.

karen said...

this is so shocking i cannot even believe it:

http://blogs.wsj.com/wealth/2010/12/14/falcone-225-million-mortgage-is-normal/

karen said...

LB, i'm waiting to hear about your JNK..

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

JNK is only down 2.5% from its peak. HYG is similar. Compare that with the carnage in TLT and MUB, and you'd have to say that we backed the right horse.

karen said...

LQD isn't even oversold yet.. and that H&S pattern is headed to... yikes..

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Karen,

How did a mug that ugly wind up with her?

....Wait, er, I think I may have the answer...

karen said...

i meant you said your only bond holdings were HYG and TIP.. didn't JNK count?

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

More HYG than JNK, it comes down to preferences about duration and quality.

Anonymous said...

@bruce

make a bil & the skanks will follow

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

The fall in HYG and JNK was expected, to some degree as there was a lot of rate risk built into the market with the mini-bubble in USTs. The rate risk far exceeded any spread risk or credit risk in the junk bonds.

So the COMPRESSOR was to stay in the HYG and add on weakness, while shorting TLT. As you can see, long (-2.5) and short (-10) means that the compression trade was a big winner. But just selling Ts before and near the top was the best decision of all.

Anonymous said...

@Karen
"this country is a total joke. the president went on The View and The Daily Show.. that is not a president."

You forgot MythBusters, he was on that one too!

Anonymous said...

Not to ramble off topic,
Does anybody watch the BBC version of "Top Gear"
They recently drove to the North Pole, first time ever for a vehicle.
That they did it drunk was even more impressive.
There is nothing marking the NP, found that a bit odd. Had to drive around and locate with GPS.
Anyway, program is great fun, highly recommended by this redneck.

foghorn

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

We expect to see buying of Treasuries, IG corporates and TIPS now that the rate risk has been largely eliminated.

HY corporate yields will drift down along with the rest of the bond market. Prices will rise, until such time as credit/spread risk becomes a resurgent issue, at which point we will be out. Until then, high yield never sleeps....

Giles Straightarrow said...

We have reversed the field, Sire....

The Liquidity Pump is now in Suction Mode.

CV said...

@McF

On the "Socioeconomics" meme... And my talk about the upcoming Oscars nominations...

How do you like the idea that one of the highly nominated films in many categories is going to be...

BLACK SWAN

karen said...

$djr.. didn't make new highs with the rest of the indices.. and is actually trending down now.. i'm noting the H&S on that.

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

2s10s is at 283, 10s30s is at 106.

These are both approaching record wides again, usually this is what happens before the start of a bond market BULL FLATTENER (bullish for bond prices).

In a BEAR FLATTENER (typical economic recovery mode), the short end takes off vertically and everyone moves out to the long end before being trousered.

In a BULL FLATTENER the whole curve moves down but the long end is bought much more than the short end b/c that's where the yield is kids.

Easy this stuff, innit?

cv said...

@foghorn

The NORTH POLE is clearly marked... for all to see...

http://blog.silive.com/weather/2007/08/Nick_at_The_North_Pole_1.jpg

Those guys were just drunk...

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

We just bought a little block of LQD (1.3%).
Pondering some AGG (5%).

Exciting, aren't we?

cv said...

@AFIATBNL

"before being trousered"...

Ha!... so that's the Liverpool version of the USC fight song?

3 cheers for U-S-C
somebody pants the referee!

Gravity said...

An apple thrown high into the air, will eventually come down.

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

An apple thrown high into the air, will eventually come down.

A quick look at the charts for TLT supports this Newtonian view of market dynamics. Failure to acknowledge the existence of g on massive bodies or asset classes can be hazardous.

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

Buying at the long end in the last half hour, kids.

Gary Shilling said...

Fill your boots, before the deleveraging resumes....

cv said...

@Gravity

"An apple thrown high into the air, will eventually come down..."

Not necessarily... If you're standing on THE MOON, for example...

Just saying...

moon you said...

I'll rephrase that statement.

A nickel thrown high into the air (if you're on the moon) will go up forever!

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

We dropped our last block of SPY (2.1%). All gone.

Bought some TIP (4.8%) and some LQD (1.3%).
That's how we roll.

Eyes wide open said...

Thx for your wisdom FIA2BNL!

Anonymous said...

@CV
He's drunk, he's probably in effing Alaska looking for the great white caribou hunter.

cv said...

@moon

That will only happen AFTER the nickel actually "gets" to the moon...

But it's on it's way as we speak...

Anonymous said...

re: Gravity

yo, there's Gravity 'on the Moon', no?

alledgedly, 1/6th that of here on Earth..right?

AAIP

Anonymous said...

@Anon

Please be advised that in the new administration, the words "great" & "white" are not allowed to be used in the same sentence.

Thank you for your cooperation & we expect your compliance.

A fixed income analyst to be named later said...

1/6th that of here on Earth..right?

That's for the NASDAQ, that's why it experiences moon shots....
Pets.com or Treasuries? The choice is yours.

Anonymous said...

No gravity,
this time it is different.

fog

Anonymous said...

@Mod
My bad.
Forgot protocol for an instant there.

fog

CV said...

@AAIP

Were talking a "Cliff Lee" type toss...

CV said...

@AAIP

and... as always... with AFIA2BNL in the picture... The "moon" in question might be one around URANUS...

karen said...

LQD chart is calling for 105.80-106.. with further downside possible to 97-100. This will be interesting to watch.. HYG would need to turn, too, in confirmation, I suppose.. and market would need to fall as well.

$TYX and $SPX correlation would need to end.

karen said...

check in tonight!

Anonymous said...

re: Mr. Lee

What is his upside?
He is 32, tosses at 93 max, has great location.
Excellent.
In two years his velocity is going to be in the high 80's at best.
Is his control going to get even better?
Is it worth 120m to find out?
Is he Barry Zito or Greg Maddux, glad my pocketbook isn't on the line.

fog

Ricola said...

All of the money is going to CHF for the season.

Prof. Wood Enickel said...

@AAIP

According to CoinFlation, a nickels velocity, is 30.27% more than it's $0.05 value, therefore, it will exit the moons atmosphere 5/6ths times faster than in earths atmosphere.

Anonymous said...

4:00PM EST: 320.29 -1.38 (0.43%) AAPL
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=AAPL&ql=1

heading in the right direction..
~~~
"...Large U.S. soybean and corn (maize) crops and strong exports are expected to tax transportation capacities this fall, especially with storage options limited in many areas. Increased demand for grain shipping services and rising fuel prices already have pushed transportation costs higher. And as occurred during the height of winter and spring wheat harvests, rail deliveries of grain and oilseeds are expected to lag as the fall harvest in the U.S. progresses.

Adding to concerns about fall grain transportation is the record early harvest of soybeans and especially of corn compared with last year’s late harvest. As of Oct. 10, corn in the 18 largest producing states was 51% harvested, far ahead of 13% at the same time last year and well ahead of 30% as the 2005-09 average for the date, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said in its Oct. 13 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin. Soybeans in the 18 major states were 67% harvested as of Oct. 10, well ahead of 22% last year and 48% as the five-year average. The grain sorghum harvest reached 52% completed in the 11 major states, also ahead of 33% a year ago and 43% as the average, the USDA said.

“Warm weather, sunshine, and minimal precipitation provided near-ideal harvest conditions for corn and soybean producers across the Corn Belt, Great Lakes States, and the Northern and Central Great Plains,” the USDA said in the bulletin for the week ended Oct. 10. “In these areas, significant harvest advancement occurred during the week, pushing harvest to an even more rapid pace. Nationally, this is a record corn and soybean harvest pace for Oct. 10.”..."
http://www.world-grain.com/News/News%20Home/Features/2010/12/Pushed%20to%20the%20limit.aspx?NewsLetter=true

AAIP

CV said...

@Prof. Wood Enickel

Assuming that was done in the AM...

That would be some serious "morning wood"...

Anonymous said...

along the 'catfood' meme..

ST. LOUIS, MISSOURI, U.S. — Bunge North America, the North American operating arm of Bunge Limited, announced on Dec. 13 that it has agreed to buy the rice milling business of Pacific International Rice Mills, LLC, a subsidiary of Anheuser-Busch, Inc. The purchase is expected to close by the end of the year, subject to customary closing conditions. Financial terms were not disclosed.

Pacific International Rice Mills (PIRMI) produces bulk and packaged milled rice for domestic and export markets. The mill is located in Woodland, California, U.S., in the Sacramento rice growing region, 20 miles west of the Port of Sacramento.

"The purchase of PIRMI's business supports Bunge's strategy of expanding into adjacent value chains, and rice milling is a natural extension for us," said Soren Schroder, president and chief executive officer, Bunge North America. "Bunge is a leader in the corn dry milling industry, and success in the rice milling industry relies on many of the same strengths: commodity origination, efficient milling operations, risk management, logistics and a customer-focused approach to business."

With an annual milling capacity of 363,000 tonnes, PIRMI sells to customers in the food service, food processing and export channels — the same channels that Bunge successfully serves through its grain, milling and oils operations.

"PIRMI is a first-rate facility with talented employees who have developed a successful business selling rice to external customers," said Pete Kraemer, vice-president of supply at Anheuser-Busch. "In the process, our breweries have sourced more rice from other suppliers, as well as our rice mill in Arkansas. The sale of PIRMI will enable us to focus our rice milling operations on those used for our beers."

Bunge has been a supplier to Anheuser-Busch for more than 30 years, providing high-quality corn products for brewing. PIRMI will be among the suppliers Anheuser-Busch looks to for its rice purchases..."
http://www.world-grain.com/News/News%20Home/World%20Grain%20News/2010/12/Bunge%20to%20purchase%20California%20rice%20mill.aspx?NewsLetter=true


new ownership/consolidation is occuring in US Rice market(s)..

AAIP

CV said...

@AAIP

Bunge are big soybean crushers as well...

Anonymous said...

30yr Bond 119.59375 -2.37500 -1.95
10yr Note 119.281250 -1.375000 -1.14
NY Gold 1396.6 -1.4 -0.10
NY Silver 29.480 -0.144 -0.49

nice? USTres complex accion`
http://www.ino.com/

ibid.

Anonymous said...

cv-

re: BG , totally..
~~
" [The] American business community was also very impressed with the propaganda effort. They had a problem at that time. The country was becoming formally more democratic. A lot more people were able to vote and that sort of thing. The country was becoming wealthier and more people could participate and a lot of new immigrants were coming in, and so on.
So what do you do? It's going to be harder to run things as a private club. Therefore, obviously, you have to control what people think. There had been public relation specialists but there was never a public relations industry. There was a guy hired to make Rockefeller's image look prettier and that sort of thing. But this huge public relations industry, which is a U.S. invention and a monstrous industry, came out of the first World War. The leading figures were people in the Creel Commission. In fact, the main one, Edward Bernays, comes right out of the Creel Commission. He has a book that came out right afterwards called Propaganda. The term "propaganda," incidentally, did not have negative connotations in those days. It was during the second World War that the term became taboo because it was connected with Germany, and all those bad things. But in this period, the term propaganda just meant information or something like that. So he wrote a book called Propaganda around 1925, and it starts off by saying he is applying the lessons of the first World War. The propaganda system of the first World War and this commission that he was part of showed, he says, it is possible to "regiment the public mind every bit as much as an army regiments their bodies." These new techniques of regimentation of minds, he said, had to be used by the intelligent minorities in order to make sure that the slobs stay on the right course. We can do it now because we have these new techniques..."
http://www.historyisaweapon.com/defcon1/bernprop.html
ibid.

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