CV has been pointing out for several weeks now that there was evidence (at least the way I see things), that Mr. Market was not only looking for a certain PRICE level, but that it was also marking TIME... I presented some of the following charts a few weeks ago, but I'll update them here...
If my observations are correct, a "corrective" move should begin within 6 trading days... It may have already begun and/or could start at any time... It is quite possible, given the number of bearish divergences, and the nature of the last "correction", that the move could happen without warning, and be quite steep... I would expect the "feel" of the move (as it's happening) to convert a lot of newly minted bulls, back to bears, in a flash... In any case... The GREEN BOX area is what I'd be looking for...
This a look at the VIX WEEKLY... One of my favorite indicators of "corrective" moves that come without warning is when the candles touch the lower BB's... Mind you, this is a WEEKLY VIX, so a touch can be made, then nothing happens for several days... In any case, we're getting very close... Another way of looking at this is when the upper BB band gets itself down around the 30 level... Often that brings about 1-3 days of long white candles only to come back and resume trend afterwards... The bottom line is that this VIX chart complements the SPY chart with respect to some of the TIME elements mentioned before...
Of course, if none of this really interests you, because you're a bull, and care more about making money, than being right, you could simply go about your merry way and "sext" fotos of your @ssets to this girl right here...
J! - E! - T! - S!
JETS! - JETS! - JETS!
Does anybody know how the SEC handles things like this? I'm thinking this guy, after the VIKINGS lose their next game, and he tosses 3 more interceptions, might be getting himself a job at the SEC (and I'm NOT talking "South Eastern Conference")...
The last I heard, his wife was chasing him out of the house hitting him with a football helmet and he was crashing his tractor into a tree... Stay tuned...
300 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 300 of 300 Newer› Newest»wow, nobody else is getting the deja vu? You have guys like Einhorn and Kyle Bass saying stuff like they are....and Ken Fisher and Warren Buffett saying what they are. I'm in my own personal groundhog day here.
I feel the same way about trying to short this again...
Ben, i think that is why i have gotten so giddy.. we know how groundhog day ends : )
i loved that cnbc video on the securitized mortgage mess..
it's almost 2 pm ET.. don't hold your breath : )
@bat
Seriously. Time will tell. I'm sure after 400 points are gone off the SPX they'll bring something in.
carleygarner
Short call traders caught big in the ES, squeeze might last through option expiration. @mrtopstep says, rumors of SPY bears blowing out.
less than a minute ago via web
drv even lower now.. wish sds would move lower or faz..
I've resorted to eating the M&Ms I bought to bribe my 3 year old with to use the potty.
man, I gotta say today pretty much is a giant injection of cold steel for me, my tiny little short position is just getting trounced right now, slowly eating up my trading profits day by day and last night/early this morning I took a real bad beat at full tilt after starting with $50 and being up over $400 in two hours, I lost a monster hand (three Aces) to a flush and gave most of that back, going to bed up about 35 bucks.
I'm going home to put on my new PSU snuggie and going to bed. Call me when it's 2011.
whoa!
@ 2:03 p.m. i was just checking http://www.finviz.com/calendar.ashx for the 2:00 p.m. release of Treasury Budget number and the Treasury budget line just disappeared altogether. wtf?
Alright...
This is one of those moments.
Saddle up and ride.
e*trade just took down the 2pm treas budget listing too!
it got moved to Friday!!
k -
obviously were just too ar and obsessive, following this stuff too closely, as i was
just now cruising thru the comments on tbp post "Open Thread: The Market Refuses to Stay Down . . ." and found Greg addressing us here at s-c:
greg Says:
October 12th, 2010 at 8:05 pm
You people are all way too concerned with Macro matters, politics, and you follow way too many stocks, yen trades and EFT’s. This is for free, one time only offer. Buy as many call options as you can on Apple, hedge it with some puts, and then relax and enjoy the ride. Trust me, the blog comments will seem a lot funnier to you.
important level at 1184-1185 right now..
just got some sds.. but this pulling of the treas budget really screws me up!
bat, are you trying to take my good mood away?
k -
it's happened before...
"U.S. Treasury Budget Release Delayed"
By Dismal (US/Canada) Staff in West Chester
February 10, 2010
The release of the January U.S. Treasury Budget, scheduled for Wednesday, has been delayed. The Treasury Department said it will be released when the government resumes normal operations. A number of other releases have been postponed or delayed be..."
don't subscribe so can't see rest of story
k -
you know i always try to make you feel good
sorry, realized that reads like something lb would post.
lol, greg, remember that guy, apple fan boy, nice trade there. today he is clearly someone in the total conviction environment, and to top it off,....he doesn't even need to pay attention because it's that easy.
how can you not smile at today's sentiment, this is what it's all about!
Ahh... CNBC:
"Global Markets Get an Early Christmas Present From Fed"
I've said it before, and sure I'll say it again, Fuck the Fed.
i guess Columbus Day caused the delay this time.. cuz they weren't expecting that holiday to pop up.. like inclement weather..
"when the government resumes normal operations"
as in, when abnormal is the normal
bat.. LOL.. it definitely did read like that! : )
May as well just step back, and wait for the cool kids to get the go ahead to pull the plug, and just catch the next one.
"I'm going home to put on my new PSU snuggie"
PSU? Snuggie? Now I kno u day is ruined... That's it folks! Ben has reached his cathartic moment...
Things can't get worse than a PSU Snuggie?
http://www.businessinsider.com/do-high-dividend-stocks-actually-outperform-when-rates-are-this-low-2010-10
one of the people that work for me here got it for me CV, I thought it was a great gift, i've been talking about one for a long time.
I-Man,
wait for the 1% correction. Then go long.
@karen
Obama's dog ate his homework...
I hope they are October calls and that they expire worthless.
if you truly believed in QE2 and all this bat shit crazy talk the last thing you should buy are divvy stocks...buy high beta, get bee doo and apple and nflx and ride those....this is about people believing in capital appreciation, besides, corporate cash would be far better used for productive things...like share buybacks....
JNK made a 52 week high today too.. EWZ, also.. hmm, on this whole recoveryless recovery rally..
Ha!
DL, if that works out for you, congrats.
zerohedge
Fed anticipates $32 billion in MBS prepays in next 4 weeks alone. This number will triple in 2011. Add $100 bn from QE2. Collect underpants
half a minute ago via TweetDeck
I still have little doubt that ES will close above 1174 today.
And if I'm wrong, who cares.
ES close above 1174...?
Not a very bold prediction at this point.
Often times lately, what I see and think about the tape is alot different than what I end up trading.
This is bizarro market, remember?
NOT close above ES 1174... excuse me.
See:
I-Man said...
There is something about ES 1174.50...
Doubt the market closes above it, but could see intraday push to 1180.
Sorry if this has been hashed out already, I havent been paying any attention to ES lately.
But there is something about that 1174.5 I tell ya...
October 12, 2010 7:05 PM
O.K., if ES closes below 1174 today, I-Man wins a cheeseburger.
AMAZING!
Harry Wanger got the trade right again!
by HarryWanger
on Wed, 10/13/2010 - 11:01
#646321
Wrong. [I've] Been long precious metals for a long, long time. Was long the market then went short in May. Covered all my shorts in early August and have only been playing AAPL to the long side since (while still holding all my metals). You probably shouldn't comment on things you don't know. But I guess this whole forum is pretty much predicated on that.
Make it a veggie burger, and we're on.
sweet:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101013/ap_on_re_us/us_obama_and_palin
So Palin is a kenyan Muslim?
Whoodathunkit?
I'll let you back out now if you want DL...
I-Man
Maybe CV will be willing to oversee an escrow account which will hold the rights to the veggie burger.
Sounds good... I can taste it already...
Escrow account?
I already took all the $100 entries from the Fantasy Football League and spent it on blow & hookers...
My team is really going to have to come thru 4 me now!
have you cashed that check yet btw? I keep meaning to look.
and you better have the money, I plan on using my winnings to buy stocks.
@McF
Not yet...
I'm like Ty Webb (Chevy Chase), in Caddyshack...
Got uncashed checks lying around everywhere...
"I plan on using my winnings to buy stocks."
Better consult with Harry Wanger first...
The only problem is, nobody knows about his winning trades until 3 months after...
Looks like BUCKY is heading towards "triple bottom-ville"...
I thought all his trades were winning trades....or so it would seem.
he's likely one of the monkey's in GLD, watching the dollar tank and thinking they are "up in gold"
http://www.marksmarketanalysis.com/2010/10/crash-call.html
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/ceridian-ucla-diesel-fuel-index.html
The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI), a real-time measure of the flow of goods to U.S. factories, retailers, and consumers, fell .5 percent in September after falling 1.0 percent in August, which is the first time the index has experienced a consecutive monthly decline since January 2009. Furthermore, August and September 2010 together produced the worst combined two-month decline since the recessionary months of January and February 2009.
ChartLines
Let's also remember 1180 is 90 pts over the key 1090 pivot of Tony Caldaro, that's meaningful as many spx legs are 90 pts
@karen
I wouldn't be surprised at all to see a 500-700 point move in the DOW in just a couple of days...
But don't look at that $TRAN candle today (almost at April high)...
Also, I didn't see this before but DJIA "golden crossed" 8 days ago... I've been watching $spx too much...
Tony Caldara....gonna pretend you didn't bring him up, another guy pretending to count waves making shit up as he goes along, of course, I suppose that's the 'right way' to do things according to our potent directors.
sorry, ben, i have no clue who he is.. was just re-tweeing.. i'll be more careful : )
he runs a blog, counts the waves as five up off the march lows so he should immediately be discounted or perhaps ignored, counting the rally that way does not follow any hard rules either from EWP or from MEW, you have to make something up in order to show that count as being right, making stuff up is fine, just don't call it Elliott Wave, or in Tony's case, and imo, much worse, he calls his site "objective elliott wave"
See how much fun this shit can be when its not all in one direction?
interesting on MFI.. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NOUqw0aJ7w
I-man,
I suppose maybe cause I'm not one a 1 min chart but it's looking pretty one directional still to me, lol, which is a blast if you were long and strong today.
Yeah... it looks a little different in the 1min for sure.
Its hard for me to remember that not everyone is watching those.
@McF
Here's CV "makin shit up"...
new chart in thread
Call it "3P&ADH - OBJECTIVE WAVE"...
Or, more accurately, call it... CV will put up ANY chart in an attempt to deny the advance of the bulls...
I feel like one of the "300" Spartans at Thermopylae the moment... (the LAST one - in fact)... 299 are gone already...
@I-Man
I'm watching the 1 min charts all the time...
I flip flop around... But I always have that open too...
Take a look at the last 2 (30 min candles), on SPX...
put/call never even anywhere near 1.0 today, lol. lots of hungry buyers (bulls) in the options pits.
@karen
look at the last 2 (30 min.) candles on SPX...
They have the most promising 2 candle sequential (for bears) look, since last Thursday...
You could say, though, that it's "wedging up" to a conclusion around 1186 or so...
That rising wedge has been taken out to the downside, but it may try to regain the apex in one last thrust...
CV, agree.. but let's see what this 30 min gives us.. the 11th had some promising candles at the close right into the 12th opening.. then blast off.
i've never used that MFI index before.. seems interesting..
I'm done for the day now, just killed it off that top.
Took me three shots to nail it, but it was worth it in the end.
I realize I sound like a hypocrit going for that top, but when no one believes in risk, you can bet that its right around the corner.
The greed smelled stale.
Good luck with the bet, DL... I might not even watch the close.
I feel like if I watch it, I'll be tempted to take another trade... and I dont really need to.
So psyched for those Chilean miners... thats the best news story I've heard, like, ever.
Praise JAH.
Ben
The PC stayed under .78 but the TRIN is near its highs. So someone is getting in quite a bit of selling.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fe45eeb2-d644-11df-81f0-00144feabdc0.html
Why America is going to win the global currency battle
By Martin Wolf
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704518104575546084161525708.html
Fed Chief Gets Set to Apply Lessons of Japan's History
Ra,
check out XLF options today, there was heavy selling going on in there from what I could tell.
OptionRadar: IMBALANCES SELL SIDE HEAVY
@karen
That 3rd (30 min.) is nice too :-)
gotta go peeps...
c'yall later
I know CV has followed it....the VIX sell signal did what it needed to today, now tomorrow may come the confirmation. I still didn't short more....I may be pissed near term that I hadn't.
I-Man hearts Chris Whalen:
"The folks at the Fed are frozen in fear. They don't know what to do. "
http://www.thestreet.com/story/10887773/2/foreclosure-fear-qa-risk-analytics-chris-whalen.html
A bit more from C-Dog:
"We need to do a good bank/bad bank and tell the bond holders who have been essentially escaping the pains of the failure of lehman brothers - you guys have to kick in. This will make my friends at PIMCO and Blackrock(BLK_), very unhappy. But tough, because either way they're gonna lose. Either they lose through inflation or restructuring. I think restructuring is better because it stops the shrinkage. We could stabilize the situation and start to grow again."
Shrinkage is never a good thing. It is really hard to explain.
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