Morning Audibles 10.13.10

With futures slightly green this morning, we're getting very near the 1174-1175 zone (where many traders around here have been calling as an area, basically, where "the bullet hits the bone"...


CV has been pointing out for several weeks now that there was evidence (at least the way I see things), that Mr. Market was not only looking for a certain PRICE level, but that it was also marking TIME... I presented some of the following charts a few weeks ago, but I'll update them here...

If my observations are correct, a "corrective" move should begin within 6 trading days... It may have already begun and/or could start at any time... It is quite possible, given the number of bearish divergences, and the nature of the last "correction", that the move could happen without warning, and be quite steep... I would expect the "feel" of the move (as it's happening) to convert a lot of newly minted bulls, back to bears, in a flash... In any case... The GREEN BOX area is what I'd be looking for... 

This a look at the VIX WEEKLY... One of my favorite indicators of "corrective" moves that come without warning is when the candles touch the lower BB's... Mind you, this is a WEEKLY VIX, so a touch can be made, then nothing happens for several days... In any case, we're getting very close... Another way of looking at this is when the upper BB band gets itself down around the 30 level... Often that brings about 1-3 days of long white candles only to come back and resume trend afterwards... The bottom line is that this VIX chart complements the SPY chart with respect to some of the TIME elements mentioned before...

Of course, if none of this really interests you, because you're a bull, and care more about making money, than being right, you could simply go about your merry way and "sext" fotos of your @ssets to this girl right here...

J! - E! - T! - S!

JETS! - JETS! - JETS!


First though... You might want to check to make sure that she's not on the payroll of the company you work for (or you'd risk a "harrassment" or "misconduct" case)...

Does anybody know how the SEC handles things like this? I'm thinking this guy, after the VIKINGS lose their next game, and he tosses 3 more interceptions, might be getting himself a job at the SEC (and I'm NOT talking "South Eastern Conference")...

The last I heard, his wife was chasing him out of the house hitting him with a football helmet and he was crashing his tractor into a tree... Stay tuned...

300 comments:

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McFearless said...

wow, nobody else is getting the deja vu? You have guys like Einhorn and Kyle Bass saying stuff like they are....and Ken Fisher and Warren Buffett saying what they are. I'm in my own personal groundhog day here.

I-Man said...

I feel the same way about trying to short this again...

karen said...

Ben, i think that is why i have gotten so giddy.. we know how groundhog day ends : )

karen said...

i loved that cnbc video on the securitized mortgage mess..

karen said...

it's almost 2 pm ET.. don't hold your breath : )

mcHAPPY said...

@bat

Seriously. Time will tell. I'm sure after 400 points are gone off the SPX they'll bring something in.

karen said...

carleygarner

Short call traders caught big in the ES, squeeze might last through option expiration. @mrtopstep says, rumors of SPY bears blowing out.
less than a minute ago via web

karen said...

drv even lower now.. wish sds would move lower or faz..

Jennifer said...

I've resorted to eating the M&Ms I bought to bribe my 3 year old with to use the potty.

McFearless said...

man, I gotta say today pretty much is a giant injection of cold steel for me, my tiny little short position is just getting trounced right now, slowly eating up my trading profits day by day and last night/early this morning I took a real bad beat at full tilt after starting with $50 and being up over $400 in two hours, I lost a monster hand (three Aces) to a flush and gave most of that back, going to bed up about 35 bucks.

I'm going home to put on my new PSU snuggie and going to bed. Call me when it's 2011.

72bat said...

whoa!
@ 2:03 p.m. i was just checking http://www.finviz.com/calendar.ashx for the 2:00 p.m. release of Treasury Budget number and the Treasury budget line just disappeared altogether. wtf?

I-Man said...

Alright...

This is one of those moments.

Saddle up and ride.

karen said...

e*trade just took down the 2pm treas budget listing too!

karen said...

it got moved to Friday!!

72bat said...

k -
obviously were just too ar and obsessive, following this stuff too closely, as i was
just now cruising thru the comments on tbp post "Open Thread: The Market Refuses to Stay Down . . ." and found Greg addressing us here at s-c:

greg Says:
October 12th, 2010 at 8:05 pm
You people are all way too concerned with Macro matters, politics, and you follow way too many stocks, yen trades and EFT’s. This is for free, one time only offer. Buy as many call options as you can on Apple, hedge it with some puts, and then relax and enjoy the ride. Trust me, the blog comments will seem a lot funnier to you.

karen said...

important level at 1184-1185 right now..

just got some sds.. but this pulling of the treas budget really screws me up!

karen said...

bat, are you trying to take my good mood away?

72bat said...

k -
it's happened before...
"U.S. Treasury Budget Release Delayed"
By Dismal (US/Canada) Staff in West Chester
February 10, 2010
The release of the January U.S. Treasury Budget, scheduled for Wednesday, has been delayed. The Treasury Department said it will be released when the government resumes normal operations. A number of other releases have been postponed or delayed be..."
don't subscribe so can't see rest of story

72bat said...

k -
you know i always try to make you feel good

72bat said...

sorry, realized that reads like something lb would post.

McFearless said...

lol, greg, remember that guy, apple fan boy, nice trade there. today he is clearly someone in the total conviction environment, and to top it off,....he doesn't even need to pay attention because it's that easy.

how can you not smile at today's sentiment, this is what it's all about!

I-Man said...

Ahh... CNBC:

"Global Markets Get an Early Christmas Present From Fed"


I've said it before, and sure I'll say it again, Fuck the Fed.

karen said...

i guess Columbus Day caused the delay this time.. cuz they weren't expecting that holiday to pop up.. like inclement weather..

72bat said...

"when the government resumes normal operations"
as in, when abnormal is the normal

karen said...

bat.. LOL.. it definitely did read like that! : )

I-Man said...

May as well just step back, and wait for the cool kids to get the go ahead to pull the plug, and just catch the next one.

CV said...

"I'm going home to put on my new PSU snuggie"

PSU? Snuggie? Now I kno u day is ruined... That's it folks! Ben has reached his cathartic moment...

Things can't get worse than a PSU Snuggie?

karen said...

http://www.businessinsider.com/do-high-dividend-stocks-actually-outperform-when-rates-are-this-low-2010-10

McFearless said...

one of the people that work for me here got it for me CV, I thought it was a great gift, i've been talking about one for a long time.

arbitrage789 said...

I-Man,

wait for the 1% correction. Then go long.

CV said...

@karen

Obama's dog ate his homework...

I-Man said...

I hope they are October calls and that they expire worthless.

McFearless said...

if you truly believed in QE2 and all this bat shit crazy talk the last thing you should buy are divvy stocks...buy high beta, get bee doo and apple and nflx and ride those....this is about people believing in capital appreciation, besides, corporate cash would be far better used for productive things...like share buybacks....

karen said...

JNK made a 52 week high today too.. EWZ, also.. hmm, on this whole recoveryless recovery rally..

I-Man said...

Ha!

DL, if that works out for you, congrats.

karen said...

zerohedge

Fed anticipates $32 billion in MBS prepays in next 4 weeks alone. This number will triple in 2011. Add $100 bn from QE2. Collect underpants
half a minute ago via TweetDeck

I-Man said...

I still have little doubt that ES will close above 1174 today.

And if I'm wrong, who cares.

arbitrage789 said...

ES close above 1174...?

Not a very bold prediction at this point.

I-Man said...

Often times lately, what I see and think about the tape is alot different than what I end up trading.

This is bizarro market, remember?

I-Man said...

NOT close above ES 1174... excuse me.

See:

I-Man said...
There is something about ES 1174.50...

Doubt the market closes above it, but could see intraday push to 1180.

Sorry if this has been hashed out already, I havent been paying any attention to ES lately.

But there is something about that 1174.5 I tell ya...

October 12, 2010 7:05 PM

arbitrage789 said...

O.K., if ES closes below 1174 today, I-Man wins a cheeseburger.

CV said...

AMAZING!

Harry Wanger got the trade right again!

by HarryWanger
on Wed, 10/13/2010 - 11:01
#646321

Wrong. [I've] Been long precious metals for a long, long time. Was long the market then went short in May. Covered all my shorts in early August and have only been playing AAPL to the long side since (while still holding all my metals). You probably shouldn't comment on things you don't know. But I guess this whole forum is pretty much predicated on that.

I-Man said...

Make it a veggie burger, and we're on.

McFearless said...

sweet:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101013/ap_on_re_us/us_obama_and_palin

Anonymous said...

So Palin is a kenyan Muslim?

Whoodathunkit?

I-Man said...

I'll let you back out now if you want DL...

arbitrage789 said...

I-Man

Maybe CV will be willing to oversee an escrow account which will hold the rights to the veggie burger.

I-Man said...

Sounds good... I can taste it already...

CV said...

Escrow account?

I already took all the $100 entries from the Fantasy Football League and spent it on blow & hookers...

My team is really going to have to come thru 4 me now!

McFearless said...

have you cashed that check yet btw? I keep meaning to look.

McFearless said...

and you better have the money, I plan on using my winnings to buy stocks.

CV said...

@McF

Not yet...

I'm like Ty Webb (Chevy Chase), in Caddyshack...

Got uncashed checks lying around everywhere...

CV said...

"I plan on using my winnings to buy stocks."

Better consult with Harry Wanger first...

The only problem is, nobody knows about his winning trades until 3 months after...

CV said...

Looks like BUCKY is heading towards "triple bottom-ville"...

McFearless said...

I thought all his trades were winning trades....or so it would seem.

McFearless said...

he's likely one of the monkey's in GLD, watching the dollar tank and thinking they are "up in gold"

karen said...

http://www.marksmarketanalysis.com/2010/10/crash-call.html

karen said...

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/10/ceridian-ucla-diesel-fuel-index.html

The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index™ (PCI), a real-time measure of the flow of goods to U.S. factories, retailers, and consumers, fell .5 percent in September after falling 1.0 percent in August, which is the first time the index has experienced a consecutive monthly decline since January 2009. Furthermore, August and September 2010 together produced the worst combined two-month decline since the recessionary months of January and February 2009.

karen said...

ChartLines

Let's also remember 1180 is 90 pts over the key 1090 pivot of Tony Caldaro, that's meaningful as many spx legs are 90 pts

CV said...

@karen

I wouldn't be surprised at all to see a 500-700 point move in the DOW in just a couple of days...

But don't look at that $TRAN candle today (almost at April high)...

Also, I didn't see this before but DJIA "golden crossed" 8 days ago... I've been watching $spx too much...

McFearless said...

Tony Caldara....gonna pretend you didn't bring him up, another guy pretending to count waves making shit up as he goes along, of course, I suppose that's the 'right way' to do things according to our potent directors.

karen said...

sorry, ben, i have no clue who he is.. was just re-tweeing.. i'll be more careful : )

McFearless said...

he runs a blog, counts the waves as five up off the march lows so he should immediately be discounted or perhaps ignored, counting the rally that way does not follow any hard rules either from EWP or from MEW, you have to make something up in order to show that count as being right, making stuff up is fine, just don't call it Elliott Wave, or in Tony's case, and imo, much worse, he calls his site "objective elliott wave"

I-Man said...

See how much fun this shit can be when its not all in one direction?

karen said...

interesting on MFI.. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NOUqw0aJ7w

McFearless said...

I-man,

I suppose maybe cause I'm not one a 1 min chart but it's looking pretty one directional still to me, lol, which is a blast if you were long and strong today.

I-Man said...

Yeah... it looks a little different in the 1min for sure.

Its hard for me to remember that not everyone is watching those.

CV said...

@McF

Here's CV "makin shit up"...

new chart in thread

Call it "3P&ADH - OBJECTIVE WAVE"...

Or, more accurately, call it... CV will put up ANY chart in an attempt to deny the advance of the bulls...

I feel like one of the "300" Spartans at Thermopylae the moment... (the LAST one - in fact)... 299 are gone already...

CV said...

@I-Man

I'm watching the 1 min charts all the time...

I flip flop around... But I always have that open too...

CV said...

Take a look at the last 2 (30 min candles), on SPX...

McFearless said...

put/call never even anywhere near 1.0 today, lol. lots of hungry buyers (bulls) in the options pits.

CV said...

@karen

look at the last 2 (30 min.) candles on SPX...

They have the most promising 2 candle sequential (for bears) look, since last Thursday...

CV said...

You could say, though, that it's "wedging up" to a conclusion around 1186 or so...

That rising wedge has been taken out to the downside, but it may try to regain the apex in one last thrust...

karen said...

CV, agree.. but let's see what this 30 min gives us.. the 11th had some promising candles at the close right into the 12th opening.. then blast off.

karen said...

i've never used that MFI index before.. seems interesting..

I-Man said...

I'm done for the day now, just killed it off that top.

Took me three shots to nail it, but it was worth it in the end.

I realize I sound like a hypocrit going for that top, but when no one believes in risk, you can bet that its right around the corner.

The greed smelled stale.

Good luck with the bet, DL... I might not even watch the close.

I-Man said...

I feel like if I watch it, I'll be tempted to take another trade... and I dont really need to.

I-Man said...

So psyched for those Chilean miners... thats the best news story I've heard, like, ever.

Praise JAH.

AmenRa said...

Ben

The PC stayed under .78 but the TRIN is near its highs. So someone is getting in quite a bit of selling.

karen said...

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fe45eeb2-d644-11df-81f0-00144feabdc0.html

Why America is going to win the global currency battle
By Martin Wolf

BinT said...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704518104575546084161525708.html

Fed Chief Gets Set to Apply Lessons of Japan's History

ben22 said...

Ra,

check out XLF options today, there was heavy selling going on in there from what I could tell.

karen said...

OptionRadar: IMBALANCES SELL SIDE HEAVY

CV said...

@karen

That 3rd (30 min.) is nice too :-)

CV said...

gotta go peeps...

c'yall later

ben22 said...

I know CV has followed it....the VIX sell signal did what it needed to today, now tomorrow may come the confirmation. I still didn't short more....I may be pissed near term that I hadn't.

I-Man said...

I-Man hearts Chris Whalen:

"The folks at the Fed are frozen in fear. They don't know what to do. "

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10887773/2/foreclosure-fear-qa-risk-analytics-chris-whalen.html

I-Man said...

A bit more from C-Dog:

"We need to do a good bank/bad bank and tell the bond holders who have been essentially escaping the pains of the failure of lehman brothers - you guys have to kick in. This will make my friends at PIMCO and Blackrock(BLK_), very unhappy. But tough, because either way they're gonna lose. Either they lose through inflation or restructuring. I think restructuring is better because it stops the shrinkage. We could stabilize the situation and start to grow again."

BuffaloT said...

Shrinkage is never a good thing. It is really hard to explain.

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