Morning Audibles 10.15.10

Got a headache?




IT happens... (mostly to yours truly - so I'm not as concerned as I perhaps should be about your silly problems)...


Capital Markets are always going to make somebody grumpy in one way or another... It is, in fact, all GAMBLING, so some are going to go home happy, and some grumpy on any given day... (Assuming there's REAL MONEY, not "pretend money" at risk)... The only one who is RARELY grumpy is the casino owner (who just takes the vig from both sides)... Or, perhaps, the person who sits around and collects a paycheck from somebody, but sits around and blogs all day on his employers time...

As for the REAL RISK bunch... And the casino operators who take their vig... There IS actually a way to make him grumpy... How do you do that? Easy! You take away all the clients... The FED, the banks, & the politicians are the casino owners here, and they simply don't understand a world where all the former "gung-ho" clients have had their pockets emptied, and are trying desperately to go back home with the last token of bus fare in their pockets...

They'll do everything in their power to shut down the bus terminal, keep you in town, and convince you to bet that last token on a shiny new machine that's a guaranteed winner...

Yours truly is sick of this game, and that's why I'm grumpy... I'm sick of the game, I'm sick of the casino owners, I'm sick of the "promoters" of the casinos, I'm sick of the conned people, I'm sick of the gargantuan efforts to enlighten the conned people, I'm sick of the fact that most of this has been brought out into full daylight, yet people still don't choose another path, and MOST OF ALL, I'm sick of hypocrites who try to play both sides...

Yes, you hypocrites know who you are...

You're the "Wall Streeters" who blog about a housing crisis, write a book, get a bunch of little elves to follow you around... Then, the CRISIS you predicted finaly becomes manifest... YOU'RE A HERO!... So how do you celebrate your accomplishment?... You sit there and watch a policy response that you must KNOW is doomed to eventually create an even deeper problem, and negatively effect the lives of tens of thousands (if not millions) of people... And do you complain about that?... No! And why? Because the "failed policy" response, in this case, happens to allow YOURSELF to feed at the trough...

It's a sin when mortgage brokers were pushing Ponzi finance scemes onto the market under the guise of a housing bubble, but now that that has all collapsed, and you have the FED trying to keep asset prices afloat, you're using the liquidity and leverage which is created in that process... And your rationale for doing so is...

"Do you want to be right? or do you want to make money"... Hmmm, it seems to me that the people you were railing against 5 years ago were saying the same thing at the time...

Probably the only thing more more comical than your hypocrisy, are your little school of PILOT FISH, who hang around your little "losers come all" open cocktail party (and add their contributions to the crapheap)...

Earlier this week, before a class, I got into a discussion at the gym about this "so-called" PROBLEM that is bantered about in the blogosphere all day long...

I explained that THE PROBLEM is simply that we're facing something CANNOT FIXED... At this point in time, it's in broad daylight, and yet everyone is standing around wondering what they should do... It's a cadaver people... There's no pulse, and it's not breathing... You're only wasting time and medicine by trying to bring it back to life...

Market BEARS know this... It's only a matter of time... Now, that TIME thing is tricky because the longer TIME goes on, the more opportunity there is for people to believe that the cadaver is not, in fact, dead... "Ooh, I think I saw a twitch there, did you see it? There was a twitch!"... NO PULSE, NO RESPIRATION, and you're talking to me about twitches that you think you saw?

I think that's the thing that irritates me the most (having to stand around and listen to all the rationalizations of all the people who think this can be fixed)...

"Oh well, I KNOW it's all going to fail, but hey look! AAPL is at $300"... "GOOG was up 10% last night"... "Gold is going to the moon"... "Oh we're SURE to take out the April 1220 highs by the end of the year"... "These markets will stay supported thru the elections, stay long!"...


There should be a law that says any company that invented this should
be BARRED from having a $300 stock price...

Anyway, all of the desire to grasp on FALSE HOPE INDICATORS isn't really helping the problem...

There is actually a bright side to all of this (for me)... Most people (most "Americans" - I should say), are woefully unprepared for a serious collapse... Despite the enormous measures I've taken to gain a degree of self sufficiency over the past couple of years, I still consider myself behind the curve... That's mostly because, over time, and in preparation, you start realizing things that you'd never considered before...

So this "stalling", this "kicking the can" down the road, has actually given me more time to accomplish things without having to do it in a hasty manner... It's like a "hobby" now...

But a warning to you all... If I've been at this a couple of years now, (and I still feel unprepared)... Well - just think about that for a minute... I will guarantee you that nobody could prepare themselves properly (even if they were given a guaranteed one months notice)... 

And don't expect that "notice" to come along... Like they say... "Nobody rings a bell at the top"...

And as for headaches... If this blog gives you one, then I suggest you not read it... Or otherwise take an ASSpirin...




Or, as I've heard... Some medicines can be taken this way, and are the preferred method used by the company they keep...









282 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 282   Newer›   Newest»
BuffaloT said...

Great Post CV.
Kansas St. destroyed the -3 last night.

McFearless said...

ok, I'm sort of hoping we test the highs from the other day today or go a little higher, and if we do I am going to get shortie (not huge, just a larger position)...what's the reason(s)

here's a couple not related to e-wave:

1. COT positions, I expect this week to mark number the 7th consecutive week of s&p exposure reduction by the big boys. Commercials have big short positions on NDX as well. "dumb money"/small speculators is what I want to fade short term. Institutions be selling some while retail now has total conviction about QE2 and POMO.
2. number of stocks trading 1 std dev. above the 50 day MA is very high right now....reversal near term would follow a fairly consistent trend on this front since 07.
3. sentiment is too bullish (that's right TOO BULLISH), 3.5 months ago all you heard about was the certainty of a double dip and dsi was 10% bulls at the 1010 lows, that's been erased and then some, and has morphed into total conviction while poor economic data continues, this psychology is not bullish. Could sentiment run like this for a while? sure....but it's been a bit extreme now for about 3 weeks and this week will likely mark number 4, so again, short term selling shouldn't surprise anyone if we think about it in terms of sentiment.
4. I do not think the 19 gaps left unfilled between here and s&P 1060 are breakaway gaps.
5. I like to follow Richard Russells PTI...yesterday despite the small sell-off his PTI indicated broad weakness as it was down 6....a very big number that would normally coincide with a 100+ point decline in the dow.

as an aside...there are equity bulls on CNBC this morning calling gold the "ultimate bubble".....I don't think so.


my biggest worry is what AT has mentioned several times, the inverse H&S, even if it's not a great example, the form is really there and we are trending with the pattern so can't deny that.

good luck bitchez

AmenRa said...

I see BB's comments have worn off. What can the world do if we decide to print, print and print some more? Stop participating in bond auctions? Take their excess US dollars and buy commodities? Buy the bonds of another country? Finally get around to pricing oil in another currency?

Anonymous said...

@BuffaloT

Good call on that KSU game...

The only reason I didn't play that were that it violated two of my basic rules...

- Don't side with public money (a rule which I break on occasion, but not when it happens in conjunction with other rules)...

- Don't fade a home dog at night...

Frankly, as you mentioned the other night, that second rule has lost some of it's polish over the last year or so, but I still usually stick to it...

Basically it'll turns a game from a play into a NO PLAY at worst...

Jax-Ten (next Monday night), will be another example (as JAX will be in a LIVE HOME DOG situation - "getting" points at home against the FLAMING THUMBTACKS)...

There have been "several" of these cases this year, thus far...

Chiefs - Charhers (Chiefs won outright)
49ers - Saints (49ers covered/almost won)
Bears - Packers (Bears won outright)
Redskins - Cowboys (Redskins won outright)

Of course... I've LOST twice this year using that logic again (both times with the "Fins" at home against the Jets & Patriots)...

CV

karen said...

good morning! get ready for $600 goog and "Apple stock target jacked to $500 a share." http://read.bi/d4J2G4

CV, I do get your words!

Can anyone tell me how retail sales are up?

karen said...

The Rot Within: Our Culture of Financial Fraud and the Anger of the Honest http://bit.ly/9SO3wb

72bat said...

cv -
i awoke at 4 this morning and was prescient about your post today, laid there thinking exactly about what you're saying.

CV said...

@Amen

Since the summer, you know, I've been talking about SILVER...

My reasoning has always been that I believe it acts as high beta to gold...

Mostly though... That because of the lack of a gold standard, a central banking system that FEARED FOR ITS LIFE, might initiate a process whereby it could confiscate some kind of precious metal as the foundation to float a new currency...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_Certificate

Silver had not seen the run-up in prices that gold has... Silver has essentially been playing "catch up"...

Anyway, bottom line... The thought has occurred to me that the FED has given up the dollar... So from the gate, they plan on allowing a process whereby the banks can use the free money they're getting to bid the silver price up out of reach and keep it out of the hands of J6P...

They won't mind then, if the dollar eventually collapses... When it does, they'll just essentially say it was out of their control, and any new currency will be "certificates" (backed by silver), as it was prior to 1964...

Just a hypothesis

CV

CV said...

@karen

Thanks! The bottom line is it's an ABSOLUTE WASTE OF TIME for about 98% of the blogging planet to waste a lot of electrons talking about "the problem & how to fix it"...

It's UNFIXABLE... Everybody on this blog has come to terms with that, and most of us are ready to take the REAL MEDICINE if it were ever forthcoming by TPTB...

The only way to trudge through the ludicrous behavior of everyone else, and their asinine opinions, is to amuse myself by poking fun at their hypocrisy...

At least everyone around here KNOWS what side of the trade I'm on...

karen said...

Ben, i think this one is for you: "Behavioral economics tells us that emotions can profoundly affect individual behavior and decision-making. Does this also apply to societies at large, i.e., can societies experience mood states that affect their collective decision making? By extension is the public mood correlated or even predictive of economic indicators? Here we investigate whether measurements of collective mood states derived from large-scale Twitter feeds are correlated to the value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) over time."

http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2010/10/twitter_predict.html

call me ahab said...

this all just makes me laugh-

I think CV nails it looking at BR's attitude during the go go housing boom- but now-

don't fight the Fed- make money- if that's the case shouldn't you have been flipping houses earlier in the decade?

and the Fed . . .indicates it may do something- the markets ramp up in anticipation and then the Fed is in a corner and has to do something-

and all the smart folks like Tepper & Ritholtz got it all figured out-

if its that easy- where did Japan stumble?

CV said...

@karen

I'll tell you something else... Something you've heard me say before...

From a "technical" perspective, if this market actually DOES manage to take out the April highs, and then threaten to "melt up" further...

I'll interpret that as the WORST SIGN OF ALL...

IOW - It means that food & fuel are on their way to 70's style inflation... That'll be the last straw for J6P...

STAGHYPERINFLATION anyone?

Of course, in the end, that will usher in the pitchforks, and probably be the deathnell for the stock market for years to come...

Own "stuff" people... own "stuff"... (and get it while it's still on the shelves...

Most of us here remember the gas lines from the 70's...

call me ahab said...

. . .and where is the best mortgage rate and borrowing rates-

looks like it must be zero

72bat said...

re: twitter_predict
"collective mood states derived from large-scale Twitter feeds"
curious as to how "the mood of the collective" is "derived." by what criteria are the "data" "measured"?

CV said...

@ahab

Let's put it this way...

If Ritholtz really thinks he has it figured out, then he's dumber than a box of rocks...

---

IMO - There's only ONE WAY that he's right... And that is... Hey - Stocks may go up...

But if they do, it's going to come at a terrible expense to the real net worth of most Americans...

This run up in the stock market since the summer has come "TICK FOR TICK" at the expense of a weakening dollar...

TICK FOR TICK...

So what's going to happen when that reverses it's course Mr. Ritholtz? Stocks keep going and dollar reverses? Economy improves?

Europeand are throwing chairs in back rooms right now because the Euro is climbing back towards the higher ranges...

Let's say the dollar DOES collapse... What are your stocks going to be worth then Ritzy?

Worse...

How much will gas at the pumps be (for the people out there struggling - not attending Hamptons cocktail parties)?

Food?

Heat for the winter? (most of the North east is heating oil)...

Ritzy don't care about that shit... Just get the S&P to 1220 so he can re-sign his 2&20's...

karen said...

ahab, thank you, thank you.. you just made me feel better, really. i was horrified by the house flipping and speculation.. and i knew what was fueling it..

call me ahab said...

. . .I'm unafraid- and quoting Bush-

"bring it on"

or Dennis Miller-

"Let's light this candle"

cv said...

@72

"curious as to how "the mood of the collective" is "derived." by what criteria are the "data" "measured"?

---

The WEB BOT project counts up all the "Boo-ya's"... ror

karen said...

well, i can't complain about the % moves being in sync this AM.. : )

.66% up
.17% down
.06% down

karen said...

but i won't be truly happy until GS is below $150!!!

CV said...

@ahab

"don't fight the Fed- make money- if that's the case shouldn't you have been flipping houses earlier in the decade?"

---

Exactly! Why wasn't the genius "flipping houses", and making money earlier?

All that was WRONG!

But now it's all RIGHT because the efforts to fill the hole created by that bust (levied onto US taxpayers), fill his coffers...

karen said...

TOP NOTCH daily pivot 1170.50

cv said...

There was an interesting post at DANERIC's site yesterday...

I'm just going to paste it here (without comment)...

---

Monday will be the 122nd trading day from the April 26th top of 1219.80. The market has broken below and has been chasing the "Death Angle" I spoke of earlier. Today was the first lower daily top since breeching the DA (first sign of weakness). Late on Monday the April top will square itself in price and time.

There was 47 trading days from the April 26th top to the July 1st low. Multiply 47 by the "golden ratio" Phi (47 x 1.618 = 76). Tuesday will be the 76th trading day from the July 1st low.---"

call me ahab said...

I can't decide who's prettier-

http://images.dennismillerradio.com/images/slideshow/Splitstreen_2_edited-1.jpg

karen said...

http://www.minyanville.com/dailyfeed/the-75000-house-in-maine/

“A lot of people say we just want a free ride,” she told the Times. “That’s not it. I’ve worked since I was 14. I’m not lazy. I’m just trying to keep us together. If we lost the house, my family would have to break up.”

call me ahab said...

karen-

I'm sick of all these stories about folks not paying their mortgage and keeping their home-

you know what- you default- hand back the deed- and push on-

fucking whiners- as if there no place to rent- and if they can't afford to rent (well lets just keep the house for free)

karen said...

NicTrades Farmgate: Impact Of Corn Prices On Hogs And Cattle In 2011 http://stock.ly/75eybc

cv said...

FWIW -

I enjoy reading comments at DANERIC's because they tend to be all over the map...

That's not a criticism, just an observation...

Supposedly, it's an EWI site... Yet for an EWI site (which tries to take the "emotion" out of trades), there sure are a lot of emotional ideas expressed...

I don't blame DAN for that... He, himself tries to stay pretty centered... And I suppose (no - I KNOW you can't control who might troll around your site and pee on your shrubs)...

You have to real ALL COMMENTS to find a few that might actually have something interesting to say... Frankly - I don't mind doing that (sifting through rubble)...

There are some bloggers around who take this "holier than thou" attitude, that express that it's a waste of their SELF RIGHTEOUS time to read through a long pile of thoughts...

I disagree...

Those might be the same type of people who think an uneducated person doesn't deserve the right to vote... If you live in a democracy, you have to live by democratic rules (which entitle one person to one vote (unless you hail from Chicago)...

In a strange way... It's the "gems" found in a junkyard, I feel, that provide the proper bit of FLAVORING to make themselves gems in the first place...

Kind of like finding a savory plate of food at some cheap "picnic table & paper plate" restaurant...

I used to LOVE the $2 a bottle wines (that were AWESOME) in some podunk village in rural Italy...

cv said...

@ahab

On the subject of hair... I ran across this yesterday...

http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/nfl/news/story?id=5685386

If I were effin' Tom Brady, I'd take my 6'5" 240 pounds and pound that little creep into the ground...

Naw... no I wouldn't waste my time...

cv said...

@karen (10:17)

Oh..... Does ANYBODY ever listen to CV? Apparently not...

& Thanks to Bernanke... It's all going to get WORSE...

When the dollar collapses further, ther great thing for FOREIGNERS is that they'll be able to buy more and more American meat...

Guess what? Less (& higher prices for Americans)...

It's one thing if you DON'T BENEFIT by propped up asset prices (because you don't own any)... But it's quite a different story when the one thing you can enjoy is a nice meal... And that just got twice as expensive...

Ritholtz is happy though... I can already sense that the DNA in his body chemistry is evolving in a way that future generations of Ritholtzes will have 4-8 arms (needed to shovel more and more food into his mouth because two hands aren't enough)...

call me ahab said...

CV-

that's my way of things- I am always on the lookout for great food at great prices (great as in low)-

there's a kabob place in Reston (I did a loan for the dude)- that is more food than you can possibly eat, reasonable prices and is very good-

but what a shit box of a place- cafeteria tables- plastic chairs, no vestibule- so you freeze your ass off if sitting near the entrance during winter-

worth it though

cv said...

BAC & JPM today... ror

I guess the market is coming to terms with the idea that America is going to become a bunch of Peggy Josephs...

cv said...

@ahab

usually great kitchen smells that come from those places...

karen said...

Peggy Josephs and Teppers !!!

karen said...

http://fridayinvegas.blogspot.com/2010/10/foreclosuregate-how-do-we-resolve-it.html

call me ahab said...

I know-

that SKF I bought Wednesday is flying

cv said...

Speaking of DANERIC...

Y'all should go over there today and see the dollar chart he put up...

If anything, today showed a pretty good bounce off that support line...

Something to watch...

cv said...

@karen (10:32)

Sorry - I've made it a rule to NEVER click on a link that says...

"How Do We Resolve It?"

More Grand Debating Society

Just teasing you... but you get my point, right?

cv said...

If I-Man is following his GANNS on 1 min charts, SPY 117.50 might present a pivot point to go short...

McFearless said...

Karen, 9:46, thanks, Paul should know that those questions have already been answered at length and with very detailed documentation by the Socionomics Institute.

call me ahab said...

gotta roll

karen said...

we didn't make a lower low on spx.. but we did on $indu/dia ..

aapl is unstoppable/unfazeable

cv said...

Uh oh...

McF is breaking out the Bo Knows icon...

I'm skeered!

karen said...

alaidi - mkt got nervous after Univ of Mich disappointed, shaking off AUD NZD CAD longs espclly vs #GBP but we still have POMO

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/presenting-david-teppers-holdings-bloodbath

cv said...

@McF

Dude... The "matchup" looks good for you on paper, but you neglected to consider one aspect...

I traded for the STEELERS defense this week...

The Browns go in to Heinz Field with their little doll boy Colt McCoy...

That's a recipe for 10 sacks, 4 interceptions, 2 pick sixes, 0 points, and 4 broken ribs...

and, of course, BEAUCOUP fantasy points for CV...

karen said...

you must see this portrait of BB:

http://macro-man.blogspot.com/2010/10/picture-worth-thousand-words_15.html

cv said...

All one has to do right now is look at the BAC chart right now and know that out of the 4 "big boys" which now stand...

They'll be the first (& next) to go...

Arrivederci!

karen said...

CV, pls, BAC is backstopped.. no worries.. you'd be smart to buy this dip.

cv said...

@karen

You're trying to get CV to stare at car wrecks with these links today... lol

karen said...

C has a P&F price objective of 1.25 and we know they are backstopped..

AmenRa said...

The banks are being taken out back and put down. POMO better come and save the day (snark). When 3pm rolls around there may be an uncontrolled rush to the exits.

cv said...

@karen

Oh yeah... "Backstopped"... (like those fotos I linked the other day)...

Let's see... BACKSTOPPED, as in, by the American taxpayer?

I'm sure JPM has artists already working on the new letterhead...

cv said...

C?

As in "House of Saud"?

Yeah... I suppose they could let that drop to a buck and a quarter if they can inflate oil prices to $300 a barrel without collapsing the dollar...

karen said...

"We expect an upward movement in stock prices through yearend because of the Fed’s actions. In Boston today, Ben Bernanke has clearly stated the position of the majority of the FOMC."

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/10/today-bernanke-and-qe2/

so pile into stocks people, on margin, mtg the house at 3.5% and go deeper; what could possibly go wrong?

cv said...

It appears that Tyler Durden [or, Bo Peng] agrees with what I was saying yesterday about this QE2 "gobble-de-gook" (as I expressed in yesterdays comment section - and drew comparisons to 2007)...

Guest Post: Another Perfect Storm Is Brewing

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-another-perfect-storm-brewing

---

Why a rational being would long equities, especially financials, at this juncture is beyond my limited imagination. Even gold is vulnerable to a correction should QE2 be judged a disappointment by the market. I remain very bullish on gold longer term. But I've taken profit on most of my GLD calls recently. This (Friday) morning's Bernanke speech should be interesting. He has a hell of a fine line to toe in rhetoric and expectation management, or else he may make history today. We'll find out soon enough. But isn't there something wrong about the system when one person should have such a huge impact on the market? Prior examples of such overwhelming prominance include Hitler, Mao, and Greenspan."

cv said...

I'll say it for the "n-th" time...

It will be a SELL THE NEWS event...

Promise the market a pony for it's birthday... When it's birthday arrives, it cries in sadness because TWO ponies weren't delivered...

Expectation management people...

cv said...

Or if you want a more IN DEPTH assessment as to the fallout...

I hereby direct you to other blogs... Where the concentrated synthesis is...

"Beach Balls Mouseketeers! Look! Wheee! Pretty Beach Balls!"...

cv said...

We're about at that pivot point on the SPY that I was talking about...

117.50

See what happens from here (if the market can push thru it)...

cv said...

@karen

You're going to love this...

Mr. "EVERYTHING WILL GO UP" Tepper portfolio...

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/shirakawa/Appaloosa.jpg

---

Doesn't look like a Beach Ball to me...

cv said...

Note:

Focus on BAC... (at top)

72bat said...

"Be clear about one thing: Ben Bernanke will not be the Fed Chairman who presides over a US economy in depression and with deflation. Not now, not ever, if he can avoid it"
IF he can...., not a 100% conviction statement

cv said...

I guess that means that QE3 will be announced at the subsequent Fed Meeting to the one QE2 is announced...

That's for you folks at CNBC, so you can get your "all-star" line-up of stock touts ready for air...

cv said...

@72

Yeah... Instead - we'll get HYPERSTAGFLATION...

Thanks for being true to your word... beard dude...

karen said...

CV @ 11:18.. I guess you didn't see my 10:41 !!! : P

McFearless said...

CV,

no no buddy, let me break this down for you

Colt McCoy got to meet with my boy chuckie (john gruden) earlier this year and they looked at some tape together and John told him whats what, just like he did that UD grad Rich Gannon and the last glory team for my boys. Colt is going to rip it up, the steelers offense may be prone to more turnovers than normal this week as Big Ben comes back and is likely to be rusty and the team not exactly gel-tastic. More chances for the browns to score.

I'm sure the Steelers D is going to do alright....but c'mon man....bo jacksons!

cv said...

@karen

AAPL (daily chart - 12 months)...

3P&ADH?

karen said...

GLD went right back up..

McFearless said...

Karen, in that Kotok link at BR's...PIMCO told me the other day they really like those Build America bonds also.

McFearless said...

also, that paper was funny.

cv said...

@McF

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-GPxkpjCvWI

Hey... But at least #34 is a FIBO number... So you have that going for you...

McFearless said...

exactly dude....Bo knows fibos

cv said...

@mcF

Here's my prediction...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1TxiVhrkZA

cv said...

@mcf

http://static.funnyjunk.com/pictures/fools.jpg

karen said...

CV, on AAPL, i see lots of peaks but no domed top!

cv said...

It's so hysterical to watch these price levels get hit (as I described before)...

Then, there's a pause...

Then there's a huge LOW VOLUME ramp job to get thru the level...

A wonder to see... I'll put a chart up if I get some time to illustrate...

72bat said...

oooh, just thot of an alternative intrepretation..., bb could just resign beforehand (soon, please) in order not to preside over a US economy in depression and with deflation.
yes, i am verging on delusional. after all , i can hardly believe what i see and hear nowadays. it's becoming difficult to discern the reality of reality.

McFearless said...

this was the funniest line in the stale Kotok letter:

"It will provide employment for lawyers"

lmao....being an attorney right now is a nightmare in most instances....if any of you know any attorneys I'm sure you understand what I mean. Silly silly statement.

McFearless said...

Pain....ok, but is gold involved?

McFearless said...

CV, here check this chart, it's sort of your style of chart:

http://lh3.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/TLZXM3o5FeI/AAAAAAAAI2c/4WAo_Ur9G90/s1600-h/SPY60min%5B2%5D.png

McFearless said...

we need a lower low and I'll short now....that's all i'm waiting for.

I-Man said...

Now is the time...

karen said...

Stephen Roach- I am increasingly worried that the world economy is at risk of falling into a Japanese like quagmire. As Japan now enters what could arguably be its third lost decade, there are striking similarities with problems that are now afflicting other leading economies in the developed world—namely, the United States and Europe. Moreover, if we’re not careful, the Japanese disease could continue to mutate—infecting other major economies, including those in Developing Asia. We must be attentive to these risks.

McFearless said...

I....on the 1 mins? You're too speedy for me now.

cv said...

@72bat

"bb could just resign beforehand (soon, please) in order not to preside over a US economy in depression and with deflation..."

Careful what you wish for... OWEBama would probably then turn to "negative interest rates" YELLEN...

Wouldn't that be swell?

cv said...

@I-Man

i agree brah...

I-Man said...

Yes, 1min

McFearless said...

here is a very good article, mirrors some of my snarky comments I've made recently about gridlock not being "good" just in a more professional way, of course:

http://pragcap.com/gridlock-good-market

cv said...

@McF

Did you read my 10:06?...

McFearless said...

CV, no I missed most of the comments this morning, I'll go back up and read in a little bit. Was getting chewed out by someone this morning as their accounts are up 7.65% for the year...they were pissed.

Whooooooo!

cv said...

GOOG high print $600 on the nose - ror

McFearless said...

interesting....was that Sugarman?

cv said...

@mcf (11:53)

I think you'd better PRINT OUT that Appaloosa portfolio and mail it to all your bitchy clients along with this weeks BAC chart...

karen said...

LOVE that chart, Ben.. thanks for posting..

cv said...

Oh waht a surprise...

Now that SPY is back under 117.50, the VOLUME is picking up...

karen said...

aapl at new new new new highs and dow down 60 pts.. need to revisit that abnormalreturns (?) video i posted yesterday.. i didn't like what he was saying but essentially that it made perfect sense for bac to tank and aapl to go to the moon. and something about how the banks' trouble/loses were all out in the open and known so it would drag the whole market down.. that's when i turned it off.. we have transparency here???!!!

cv said...

AAPL hit $310 today...

UFB

Well- at least you know what they're trying to hold the market up with...

Newtons for everyone!

AmenRa said...

TNX +2.5%
TYX +6.9%
BKX -1.99%
XLF -.86%
AAPL +2.5%
AMZN +3.8%
TBT +2.46%

Have yields finally changed directions?

karen said...

John Carney, Buy BAC http://www.cnbc.com/id/39686897

McFearless said...

well, those holdings were as of 6/30, maybe some are different now, probably, the beta on that account must be insane....my clients would have freaked out like no other by 6/30 had they been sitting in that account.

cv said...

@Amen

Maybe it'll go "non correlative" in the other direction...

Yields rise... stocks sell off...

Whay can't the ANTI-LOGIC work in both directions?

cv said...

@McF

Well I notice that Tepper wasn't doing any interviews on CNBC back on June 30th...

Short Crone said...

McF, you delivered twice what the S&P did, and he's unhappy? You need more appreciative clients. Let's go apply to Wells and rubber stamp foreclosures.

I-Man said...

Now that was a great way to take it into lunch time...

That Mr Fibonacci dont lie... especially with his boy Gann at the helm...

cv said...

@I-Man

speaking of GANNS... If anybody is interested - here's a look at the "design" that I'm hoping to occur...

new chart in thread

cv said...

Of course... It's NOT a sure thing (as one could make a case for that leading diagonal coming up from the bottom left to act as support)...

Anyway... It should resolve sometime today...

McFearless said...

no lower low...no short yet

McFearless said...

@SC,

I don't get it at all. It's been a rough week for me, and I've got two meetings tomorrow!

McFearless said...

"Well I notice that Tepper wasn't doing any interviews on CNBC back on June 30th"

ror

Short Crone said...

McF, My hat's off to you. Not only did you save your clients major pain in the past, you are continuing to deliver to them under very uncertain times. Maybe you live in the wrong part of the country. Here in the Midwest folks are more conservative in all ways; they mistrust everything, especially things that come easily. Your neck of the woods is much more aggressive. I used to work for a firm in Chicago that dealt with mostly grumps-grumps with money, but still, unpleasant.

Short Crone said...

Check to see if your grumps are creating enough income for you. If not, fire them. You are way too talented to waste your intellectual and emotional time on them.

DL said...

K @ 11:48

Stephen Roach = grumpy permabear

I-Man said...

No shortage of grumps in America...

I-Man said...

Shortage of faith, equals abundance of grump.

DL said...

You the grump-czar?

I-Man said...

No, just used to be one.

cv said...

A "survivor" needs to have a little grump in their DNA...

Nothing wrong with that...

It's hard to survive, long term, on just skittles & unicorns...

spoonman said...

Eye opening, even for the well informed and cynical

http://dailycaller.com/2010/10/14/thedc-op-ed-one-nation-under-fraud/

At some point, they're going to mistakenly foreclose on the wrong guy, and somebody's going to get shot. The ugliness is still ahead of us.

karen said...

talk of a delayed treasury report..

karen said...

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aU_sRPWgL02s

Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- MetLife Inc., the insurer with more than 200 home-loan offices in the U.S., is delaying the sale of some foreclosed properties and found “irregularities” in its processes of taking over houses, Moody’s Investors Service said.

Short Crone said...

Grump-czar: far worse than Herding Cats Czar, because they won't move their lazy arses to change, they just sit and grump

karen said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Geithner said...

We cannot decide whether China is a currency manipulator or not.

But on November 3rd, we'll make a decision and announce it.

cv said...

Plus - even though I used the term "grumpy" in the thread topic... I actually OBJECT to the label...

I consider "grumpy" (as expressed in the evaluation process of the situation we're facing) to actually mean "REALITY"...

The problem is, with most people, they don't want to face REALITY... So they make up these little illusions to make themselves happy...

Those who don't conform, are labeled as "GRUMPS"...

IMO - You've FINALLY arrived when you can actually FACE reality (and the fact that what you're facing, by the "illusionists" definition - SUCKS)... and determine for yourself that it DOESN'T ACTUALLY SUCK AFTERALL...

And there is more EQUALITY amongst participants...

So why is everybody so afraid to take that step?

karen said...

Ben! http://www.businessinsider.com/bruce-berkowitz-einhorns-shorting-it-i-would-buy-the-entire-company-if-i-could-2010-10

DL said...

Free psychoanalysis along with the stock market advice.

Such a deal.

cv said...

There's not much more that a human really needs than some good food to eat every day, adequate shelter, and honest people to deal with...

I'll toss "health" in there as well... But I mostly feel that "health" is a manifestation of what I described in the first sentence...

cv said...

@DL

Don't forget the olive oil...

karen said...

toss sex in there for me, pls.. wine, love, passion, romance, exercise and sunshine, while you are at it.

karen said...

http://www.businessinsider.com/treasury-delays-china-currency-report-2010-10

cv said...

@karen (12:50)

That's fine...

But consider this... The more DEMANDS that you layer in to it, the more the odds start increasing that something is going to make you unhappy...

KISS

Anonymous said...

(12:51)

Dog ate the homework again...

cv said...

@Amen

180 minute $SPX candles are starting to look "bearish homing pigeon-ey"...

karen said...

okay, fine CV.. i don't have to ask for sunshine (that's a given!) I will KISS.

Health (includes exercise), A Lover (includes SEX, love, passion and romance), Food (includes water and wine), and Shelter.

Hey, note JJC up but GLD down.. and this was haywire today, HYG:LQD after yesterday's candle!! my goodness what a surprise.

DL said...

cv @ 12:53

Yes.

Love, passion, romance and hot sex.

A lot to ask for on a seven-day-per-week basis.

karen said...

we knew that GOOG 600 would give way.. 600.61.. LOL.

DL said...

K @ 1:00

So who's going to outperform over the next 6 months, GOOG or AAPL...?

DL said...

Google's getting into some weird sh*t these days.... cars that navigate without drivers, an electrical power line under the ocean, etc.

karen said...

DL.. beats the heck out of me.. didn't you have that scary idea to go long one and short the other??

DL said...

scary indeed

karen said...

Danny! http://mrtopstep.com/2010/10/15/googles-gangbuster-earnings-and-options-expiration-wrestling-the-sp/

DL said...

K,

And let me add, that you're the AAPL of my eye.

karen said...

not sure what to make of the TBT candle..

cv said...

@McF

Going back to that chart you linked earlier...

Do I see a "ABCDE" inside that bearish rising wedge?

... and if so... by logic...

Colin said...

@CV Re: home dogs at night (late, I know)

Does that mean you have the skins over the Colts getting 3, because I don't see any way that happens?

karen said...

http://mrtopstep.com/2010/10/15/mr-topstep-charts-intraday-1015-bifurcation-1180s-2x-top-potential/

charts and voiceover..

I-Man said...

Haynesworth will eat Manning's arm...

karen said...

DL. glad you are such a cheery mood today.

Colin said...

The divergence between Tech and Finnies is back to 2007 levels. Familiar anyone?

http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=Logarithmic&chdeh=1&chfdeh=0&chdet=1287172800000&chddm=8602&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=NYSE:IYF&cmptdms=0&q=NYSE:IYW&ntsp=0

and

http://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=1&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=Logarithmic&chdeh=1&chfdeh=0&chdet=1287172800000&chddm=8602&chls=IntervalBasedLine&cmpto=NYSE:IYF&cmptdms=0&q=NYSE:IYW&ntsp=0

karen said...

amzn joining the party today.. nflx, not.

cv said...

@karen

If you've forgotton... yesterday at the close I said to look at the GOOG "all time" chart...

It hasn't had a good history, thus far, of being able to maintain the $600 level for very long (relatively speaking - I'm not talking I-Man's 1 minute charts)...

I suppose we'll see if the 3rd time is the charm...

Call me UNINTERESTED... Or, if it DOES breakout and hold above $600... Call me more interested in physical gold and silver...

cv said...

and food...

DL said...

Colin @ 1:14

Yeah, I've been thinking about that.

But it's not a short-term timing tool.

karen said...

Thanks, Colin..

Steve Eubanks was saying something similar on those topstep charts.. and did everyone get a look at AGQ!!

karen said...

QLD candle alert.. UFB.

I-Man said...

They might pull another one of those houdini acts this afternoon...

Should have broken down already.

karen said...

cv, pull out your straight edge and put in on GOOG's highs.. $747.24, 629.51 and ta-da! today's 600.66 area..

cv said...

@Colin

That's a good point there (Skins - Colts)...

Here's basically my checklist...

1. With no other factors considered...I happen to like the COLTS there... Ask yourself WHY Green Bay was a 2.5 point favorite and Indy is a 3 point favorite... Shouldn't Indy be giving 3.5 to 4 points?... I think if Green Bay & Indy were to be matched up, most would fancy a play on the Colts at the moment...

2. The Redskins are coming off two consecutive, hard fought, victories... It'll be tough for them to duplicate the intensity 3 weeks in a row...

3. The Redskins have been giving up A LOT of passing yards this season...

4. Indy is only two weeks removed from it's BYE week, and coming off a HOME GAME... They're 'fresher"...

HOWEVER

Due to the "home dog" rule... I cancel out all of the above factors that favor a play on Indy...

Basically - It turns it into a NO PLAY for me...

DL said...

I assume that we take another stab at the 1184 level (SPX) on Monday.

McFearless said...

"Here in the Midwest folks are more conservative in all ways"

After spending a lot of time with my wifes family from Ohio and Indiana over the last few years I can tell you without a doubt that people on the East coast are not the same as those in the midwest when it comes to money and what is important to them.

cv said...

@Colin

Yeah thanks Colin (the 2007 reference)...

CV has been talking for 2 weeks about the 2007 similarities (with respect to the FED), but nobody on this blog as offered a word...

Thanks peeps! :-/

karen said...

don't even go here: http://www.businessinsider.com/dylan-grice-63-million-nikkei-2010-10

karen said...

CV! we've all been talking about the lagging financials.. LOL..

karen said...

today is just an extreme because we've got foreclosure gate and goog/aapl/amzn

DL said...

CV @ 1:25

Back in '07, monetary policy was somewhat tight, and the yield curve inverted.

Lotta differences

karen said...

$copper is a thorn in my side! but it did this in 2008, too.. then splat.

McFearless said...

karen,
yeah, ok, he can fade einhorn if he wants. Tell me one bad call DE has made when he came out to deliver a thesis like this, he's been 100% on these big calls, doesn't mean he will be this time...but one of those guys positioned right for all this and the other has been saved by a massive rally that made people forget his reputation was almost ruined in 2008.

It would seem to me that issue comes down to how they value the land St. Joes owns. DE says it's selling at $2k per acre and likely to continue to sell there. As I'm to understand it a lot of the land is Florida swamp land....St Joes reflects a selling price of at least 5k per acre or I've read reports of Berkowitz claiminig it is 7-10k per acre. In the end it comes down to a reflation bet I suppose, but even in reflation, builders will likely be more cautious, so while it's land in Florida, given the huge inventory build there as well as the fact that it's more expensive to develop on swampland...i'd lean toward DE's thesis that the price per acre over the next 3-5 years will trend closer to or lower than $2k and therefore that stocks is overvalued.

cv said...

@karen @DL

Both of you just proved there that you DIDN'T UNDERSTAND A WORD of what I was trying to say...

My "comparison" had nothing to do with market technicals...

Instead...

It had to do with PERCEPTION... How the PERCEPTION of Fed Easing (as they started the easing cycle that we're still in, about the time of Cramers rant)... How the market rallied into the "mouthpiece" of EASING... Then, when the actual announcement of the easing became something or record [at the Dec '07 FOMC meeting], the market started really tanking...

Well, it waited a month until bonuses were paid... Then it started tanking...

karen said...

Ben, you know i think the DE walks on water : )
But, i'll keep an eye on JOE for fun..

karen said...

CV.. I'm from Venus! and it seems DL is, too.. Ben and I discovered that recently! Besides, I'm not a mind reader.

cv said...

I'm on the "lookout", here, that when QE2 finally gets unveiled... we'll see the same response...

Of course I'm just a jerk... I can talk about beach balls if you want...

karen said...

abnormalreturns
On the challenges of integrating sentiment into an investment process.
http://chart.ly/tbr22jw

note: not sure if the above is any good.. playing it now.

cv said...

Look at that wedge on the last 5 60 minute candles on $spx

I-Man said...

We've been through all this before, DL is not a woman.

Unless he's had an operation recently...

McFearless said...

me, I prefer bocce balls!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9iZtdvRyP34&p=C0E4CEB09F12BFAF&playnext=1&index=3

Cramer said...

They know NOTHING!

I-Man said...

Dude I love bocce ball!

DL said...

K.,

I'm from Mars, sweetie

karen said...

I know that DL is male, silly.. he just understands women-speak.. LOL

Cramer said...

I like Skee-Daddy ball

karen said...

[12:10:48 PM]: CNBC: Discussing the surprise announcement from the Obama admin regardng the dissemination of the report labeling #China a currency manipulator. They have delayed it until Nov say some reports. it speaks of #politics. let us also take into consideration that the last 3 bond auctions were tepid at best. CNBC conjectures that perhaps it is tit-for-tat. The currencies are widely affected by the report. therefore there will likely be quiet times in the currency markets. $$

DL said...

Women-speak maybe.

But women?

Fuggetaboudit.

McFearless said...

yeah, bocce is a good game, you should see the courts they have at the retirement community where a few of my clients live...they are top notch.

I've also become a big fan of ladder golf, especially for any tailgates.

DL said...

Karen @ 1:41

I am so shocked, I cannot begin to tell you.

cv said...

@McF

Ladder Golf & Frou Frou drinks...

Dude - You're going to be the hit of the retirement home when you get old...

karen said...

601.00 on goog.. now's your chance to buy for the next push : )

karen said...

CV.. i think he plays cards or solitaire on-line, too. LOL.

karen said...

Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- American International Group Inc.’s plan to exit U.S. ownership includes a new $2 billion backstop from the Treasury Department after credit raters said the company may need emergency capital as it regains independence.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aJj_TmHk_mx4

will it ever end??

cv said...

@DL

Didn't you hear?

Congress & the Administration are on their Halloween recess at the moment...

Washington is shut down...

Obama is busy giving coaching tips to John Wall to improve his technique...

karen said...

oh, this is gonna be good: Peter Schiff, "It's scary how clueless Bernanke is."

http://www.businessinsider.com/peter-schiff-bernanke

Short Crone said...

I used to like Fairholme because it could hold up to 30% in cash if conditions called for it-yet they sorta kinda missed the whole 2008 thingy...

Short Crone said...

Out here we play corn hole games.

cv said...

@SC

That's basically what they play inside the Capital Beltway too...

karen said...

time to look at cat on the daily and weekly charts.. i dare it to top this next week...

Long Krone said...

Short Crone,


Where is "here"?

Short Crone said...

Long Krone: The Middle, a la the tv show

DL said...

Didn't realize anyone here lived in "fly-over" country.

I-Man said...

Hmm....

McFearless said...

CV,

I only want the goal of work becoming optional....I don't really want a retirement the way most people think about it. I enjoy working.

Lot of bad buzz out there about my beloved PTTAX....stay tuned. I've been thinking about dumping for a while due to size. billy is loading up on MBS.

karen said...

this can't be good, can it? Treasury says tax receipts totaled $2.16 trillion
-- Treasury says spending totaled $3.46 trillion

McFearless said...

but yeah, I'd still be the life of the party at the retirement home...I plan on rocking supsenders on the regular if I live that long.

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