Morning Audibles 9.30.10

Well... We made it to September 30th... If you look back at the charts from July 2nd, (the beginning of the quarter), I guess you could say that, with the help of Brian Sack...




No wait... Not THAT Brian Sack... (Oh well, we'll just go with it anyway being as it suits our purposes and all)... & Brians "tool" wielding friends...


Well, most "hedgies" out there have to be breathing a sigh of relief realizing that they've safely coasted across the finish line (with their redemption requests muted & bonuses in tact)...




It's even spurred some... (The "Wall Streeters" who don't manage to find time to take a 3 hour train ride down to Washington to give a Congressional testimony), but find plenty of time to BLOG... To let their hair down and have a little playful fun... 


Why... Here's an example (of "what say me"):



Contest: Ideas for Goldman Sachs Ad Campaign

Excerpt (from the TWSW blogs author)"

"My own contribution is decidedly simpler:


“Goldman Sachs: Like we give a fuck what you think of us  . . .”


CrowdQuery: Whats your best (no holds barred) idea for GS’s new ad campaign ? Give me your cleverest pithiest Goldman Sachs PR phrases, and I will make sure they find their way to the right persons . . ."

---

So if you're bored watching the algos this morning... Go over there and submit your entry... Yours truly has been effectively BANNED from posting at that blog, so I'll make my submission here...

Very Simple...

New Goldman Sachs (Lite) - We STILL answer to a higher authority

Come to think of it... The "idea" that TWSWB had, wasn't really a bad one... I mean, TWSWB is the self proclaimed host of the most intellectually stimulating blog this side of Mos Eisley in the known galaxy... That point is ETCHED & CASE HARDENED with comments like "Like we give a fuck what you think of us", is it not?

With thoughts like that, I too might have thought twice before appearing in front of a Congressional panel... Ask Roger Clemens...

As for me... Since I have nothing better to do than sit around and wait for a "short entry" into this market of fools, I'm thinking I might dream up the same kind of contest... Let's just point fingers at blogs like ZH (and insult their comment pool)... Then, let's follow that up by "piling it on" on GS... It's all in good fun, right?

In the end, as we all know... Any problems that exist...? (see below)





















287 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 287   Newer›   Newest»
AmenRa said...

Let the games begin...

AmenRa said...

GDP revised to 1.7%
Weekly Claims 453k

BS

CV said...

@Amen

Well all I can say is that the BEARS beat the COWBOYS the other week...

Here too, I guess they're hoping Chicago is better than Dallas...

CV said...

@Amen

"GDP revised to 1.7%
Weekly Claims 453k"

Here's how they managed that...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VRrMu7B1L2I

call me ahab said...

that Bush image is a riot-

Hey- I put an entry in over there for the new GS slogan-

hope I win the big prize

although your slogan is pretty damn good

AmenRa said...

AUDJPY and EURJPY are down. Oil and gold are up. Yen is way the f up. Futures slightly higher (guess they know it's BS also).

AmenRa said...

Jeebus. Continuing claims revised higher by 551k to 4540k as another 256k fall off EUC. Yeah, things are looking up.

CV said...

@Amen

Refer to above... Bush's fault...

CV said...

I usually make fun of Bloomberg...

But I thought this was pretty good...

CV said...

oops...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-30/mystery-of-disappearing-proprietary-traders-commentary-by-michael-lewis.html

CV said...

OK... that was short lived... now I can go back to making fun of Bloomberg...

Comedy

U.S. House Unites to Push China on Yuan as Frustration Mounts

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-29/china-currency-bill-to-have-limited-economic-impact-u-s-agency-reports.html

“What this says very concretely is that we mean business,” House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Sander Levin said before the vote yesterday. The vote will “send a message” to global leaders to make progress on currency values at a summit next month, he said.

The administration of President Barack Obama, which hasn’t taken a position on the bill, acknowledged the sentiment. The vote “clearly shows lawmakers have serious concerns about this issue,” Natalie Wyeth, Treasury Department spokeswoman, said in an e-mail.

The Senate will take up its version of the bill after the November election, Senator Charles Schumer, a New York Democrat, said in a statement yesterday.

“The Chinese ought to be aware that Congress is serious about confronting their currency manipulation,” Schumer said.


BWAAAAAAAAAHHHH!

More comedy:

Voting on Bush Tax Cuts Divides Democrats Before Election Day

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-09-29/voting-on-bush-tax-cuts-divides-democrats-in-congress-before-election-day.html

Democrats worried about defending congressional majorities and divided over extending income-tax cuts are delaying a vote on the issue until after Election Day. Party strategists warn they are missing an opportunity to define themselves against Republicans.

So funny I forgot to laugh...

After Senate Democrats postponed action on President Barack Obama’s proposal to extend middle-class tax cuts until after the Nov. 2 election, a member of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s leadership team announced today that chamber also will not vote this week.

CV said...

Bush's fault again...

CV said...

Wait - I found someone NOT blaming Bush...

Alberto Contador blames tainted meat

http://sports.espn.go.com/oly/cycling/news/story?id=5632256

Anonymous said...

Let the short-covering begin....Hopefully, this will cap the rally.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Ben,

I re-read some of your comments last night....and I have a question:

If interest rates start to rise, do you think PTTAX will decline in value, or are the guys at PIMCO smart enough to make money in that environment also?

Busy day in the mine, but I will be lurking...

CV said...

@Anon

I think they'll find that there are not really MASSIVE shorts to unwind...

Most of those heavy shorts were unwound almost 50 points ago...

karen said...

good morning! not! after spying futures, i almost stayed in bed for ever.. loved the post, CV.. will check that bloomberg article and then slit my wrists..

AmenRa said...

Was that a bumrush to 1150 or what? I guess the HFT algos are hunting for all the buy stops just above 1150. Hilarious.

Jennifer said...

get ready for 1158...

call me ahab said...

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. , the world’s largest retailer, plans to increase its workforce by 36 percent in the next five years as global economic growth boosts spending.

see . . .jobs for everyone (be prepared to live in a trailer in the parking lot if you want to be able to live off the wages)

speaking of Bloomberg- did anyone catch last night's post about rare earths?

Pentagon Loses Control of Bombs to China Metal Monopoly

McFearless said...

Bruce,

well, past performance is meaningless, however, I would point out in the recent past when rates were rising like from 04-06 PTTAX was + every year, I think the last down year in the fund was 1999 which I believe was down .75% that year. My concern with the fund in that kind of environment moving forward is it's current size (aum)

imo Bill Gross is the best in the world when it comes to capital allocation in fixed income so while he could certainly lose money in an environment like that, I'd still expect him to outperform most other managers with similar funds.

PIMCO is fully aware of this threat so they made a new fund to deal with something like that if/when it comes along: PUBAX, the strategy there is different than total return fund and is designed to be able to take advantage of a rising rate environment. Gross does not manage the unconstrained bond, Chris P. Dialynas does, he's been with them since 1980.
The fund is kind of pricey, but it's brand new, so the fees may go down over time.

McFearless said...

pretty happy to see this morning actions, if Neely is correct on his count we need to go a little higher and then it's highly likely wave 1 would be the longest wave in Wave C.

hey 1158....thanks for the daily dose of deja vu

McFearless said...

@Jennifer,

never got to respond last night but yeah, I read Reggie more for his fundamental take on things than I do to look for trades, he's a smart cat, didn't even realize he had a subscription service.

CV said...

@ahab

I'd considered doing that as an opening thread...

RARE EARTH bitchez!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=agWpGKg0u3g

karen said...

if you look at fxe on a six month time frame.. you might wonder if that cup and handle is gonna play out or peter out.. euro at resistance..

not sure i like this game anymore and may close my euo for a pittance.. i would love to embrace the long side.. Tepper makes it seem like a no brainer, after all, but something is rotten in Denmark..

wunsacon said...

Is this Survivor Capital or the Blog that Bashes TWSWB?

>> (The "Wall Streeters" who don't manage to find time to take a 3 hour train ride down to Washington to give a Congressional testimony),

I initially criticized BR for his decision. But, after seeing how the Democratic party is still so in bed with Wall Street, I changed my mind.

VOLCKER had no influence on policy. (It appears nothing anyone says unless it represents the interests of the existing powers / status quo, moving incrementally/reactionarily at the slowest pace to stave off the next crisis.) What difference would it have made if BR were to have spent his time going down there?

CV said...

@McF

I tend to go with Billy Ray Valentine...

McFearless said...

Karen,

I'm still thinking I may get long and strong but I have to wait for a pullback for an entry at this point....if we correct in 3 waves/non impulsive form down to the 1080-1,100 level, I'll be in as we'd likely be looking at a big third wave directly after, does this make me a bull.....ahahaha, hell no.

While I understand the appeal of dividend stocks as a "safer" way to go long, if I do go long, I'll be getting long the high beta stocks, it's that easy.

CV said...

Capricorn...

call me ahab said...

CV-

yeah I thought that was a pretty thought provoking article-

I could see the USA getting pretty aggressive about not having access to what it needs to keep the war machine running smooth-

perfect day for me to skip going to the office- all this much needed rain makes me lazy about leaving the house-

gym shorts baby

AmenRa said...

If the economy is looking this "good" then there is no need for QE2. I guarantee TPTB are well aware of this and will flash crash this thing if more voting members start talking about no more QE.

McFearless said...

also, re: Reggie, the JPM paper I read was maybe late last spring or in the summer, so yeah, horrible time to go short on those silly fundamentals.

they will matter when social mood wants them to matter but not until then

call me ahab said...

wunsacon-

BR has left a bad taste in many a mouth over the last several months-

maybe he should change the name of his blog to Politico (unless it's already taken of course)

McFearless said...

well, we are up to 2 now Ra, Plosser and Hoenig. Prechter has maintained they won't truly do enough to stoke inflation until the deflation is really bad, and we certainly aren't to the really bad stage yet.

CV said...

@McF

It's starting to look a little like this on my screen...

new chart in thread

McFearless said...

what time was that apprent testimony today Ra?

CV said...

@Amen

"If the economy is looking this "good" then there is no need for QE2..."

That's what I've been saying... If it's all so great, what the hell do we need QE2 for?

Take rates up to 5% while you're at it...

call me ahab said...

If it's all so great, what the hell do we need QE2 for?

because if the Fed doesn't follow through on that expectation-

it will tank the markets (bank's get the last word)-

I wonder if that is on their minds?

CV said...

@wunsa

"Is this Survivor Capital or the Blog that Bashes TWSWB?"

Answer: YES

What good is a blog unless it attempts to peel the onion a little?

Or, I suppose, you'd rather just have me spout the rhetoric that you pick up every day off of every MSM news service...

We already have CNBC & Bloomberg... And, of course, BR himself who doesn't seem mind getting in to bed with them from time to time...

Jennifer said...

I'm having one of those "its a small world" moments...Yelnick is quoting another blog written by a guy who shared an apartment with a friend of mine when we all just got out of college. I feel old, seriously unaccomplished, and dumb.

Jennifer said...

NFLX down 7 points in 45 min...the cracks are spreading...

CV said...

@wunsa

& I am especially incredulous about this comment...

"What difference would it have made if BR were to have spent his time going down there?"...

---

That's the whole point... As a matter of fact...

"What difference would it have made if CV were to NOT waste my time coming up with a blog thread every single day that peels the onion?"

Am I changing the world here? Probably not... Does BR himself give a FF? Definitely not!

So why do it?

Yeah...

So why do it?

Starting tomorrow, I'll change this to a blog specializing in orinthology, poodle grooming, adventure travel, & re-modeling tips...

I've already got the NFL covered...

But that's only because THAT casino makes more sense... (unless Scott Green or Carl Cheffers happen to be refereeing the game)...

call me ahab said...

I feel old, seriously unaccomplished, and dumb.

ROR-

all good qualities I can identify with

McFearless said...

Wunsacon,

so everyone should give up when it doesn't make a difference right away?

no thank you.

Jennifer said...

Thanks for the laugh Ahab...I'm glad I'm not alone!

McFearless said...

also, Barry himself seemed to indicate the reason he didn't go was because it was a "time suck" ....so one day out of his life to go down there was just too much, don't you find that a little odd given his critical words for the administrations actions?

AmenRa said...

I thought these comments were interesting. they shed some light on the "BTE" Chicago PMI:

General Comments from Members of the Survey Panel

Each month, the survey panelists have the opportunity to add comments to clarify the reported activity of their organization. As appropriate, the report includes comments selected for their insight. No attempt is made to ensure that the nature of the comments represents the survey panel as a whole.

FROM THE SOURCE an occasional feature

1. Suppliers have cut staff so much there is no support team when a failure occurs, the response is slow, laborious and inadequate.

2. Tight raw material inventories both in-house and at suppliers are making planning very interesting. Conservative forecasts make this a prudent strategy but current skittish markets can either validate or wreak havoc upon it. Roll the dice.

3. Small business lending is picking up a little. Foreclosures on both Commercial and Residential properties are increasing. We are beginning to see an increase in people walking away from their mortgage obligations because of the decrease in the underlying values of their properties.

4. Just wondering how long this will last!

5. Look for consumer food prices to rise soon. Food manufacturers simply cannot continue to absorb commodity increases.

6. We have a price increase going into effect October 1st, which increases orders for September.

7. For our business, there is a lot of forward looking quotational activity, no new orders, but construction of projects which receive financial approval back in the Spring.

McFearless said...

Karen's buddy Jim Paulson was on CNBC this morning, I'm not a huge fan of him, but I actually thought he laid out how the end of the year could go pretty well, maybe there is a video if people are interested, he actually laid things out similar to what leftback has been forecasting.

CV said...

@wunsa

Also... Answer me this...

Why can't CV get a comment posted at TBP...

Is it because TWSWB doesn't REALLY want to hear all views?

I thought that's what TBP was all about... Correct me if I'm wrong... HERE - we let you do that...

McFearless said...

where's all that big imbalance top step was talking about late yesterday....no dice for the bears.

Jennifer said...

Yeah...noticed that myself. Maybe they were just waiting for the best possible price?

call me ahab said...

"McDonald's denies report it would drop health insurance unless government waives requirement"

the waiver they are looking for is reprieve from unlimited benefits (no cap)-

unintended consequences of Obamacare

AmenRa said...

Headline at Marketwatch: "Gold's run cut short by Chicago manufacturing gain"

But Gold is still above 1300 so how is its run cut short?

CV said...

Will Dodd-Frank Help High Frequency Traders Crash The Bond Market Too?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/39419371

McFearless said...

"Elsewhere in the euro zone, Spain lost its final triple-A credit rating as Moody's cut it by one notch to Aa1, citing the budget impact of slower economic growth."


See now how spains plans continue to be carried out "to the letter" just like their prime minister told CNBC.

call me ahab said...

. . .but then again- we can all go Swedish- I hear that's what everyone is dying for

wunsacon said...

>> I suppose, you'd rather just have me spout the rhetoric that you pick up every day off of every MSM news service...

NOOooo.

>> We already have CNBC & Bloomberg... And, of course, BR himself who doesn't seem mind getting in to bed with them from time to time...

Yeah...

>> Starting tomorrow, I'll change this to a blog specializing in orinthology, poodle grooming, adventure travel, & re-modeling tips...

Well, wouldn't that be more fun than harping on TWSWB?

Maybe what I want to say is this Jamie-Kennedy-inspired message: "don't be hatin'".

CV said...

@Amen

"But Gold is still above 1300 so how is its run cut short?"...

Maybe it was a misprint... Maybe they meant to say that GOLD is going to take a "short-cut" to $2,000

CV said...

@ahab

CV is fully behind the Swedish model...

http://www.theautojunkyard.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/swedish_model4.jpg

call me ahab said...

I like that-

I wonder where they are getting that all over tan- being from the Northern latitudes and all

wunsacon said...

>> so everyone should give up when it doesn't make a difference right away?

McFearless, well, no. You're right. But, how far are we all supposed to go?

Right now, somewhere, some anti-nuke/anti-war Catholic nuns are serving prison time for trespassing on a government missile site. If I'm against nukes/war, am I obligated to do the same thing? Well, I'm not that much of a fighter. And neither are a lot of other people. There's always something "more" that every one of us could do to protest/fight something. But, we don't. Who am I to judge people for not fighting harder?

CV said...

@wunsa

See... you INTERPRET it as "hatin"...

I'm just here pointing out what's FOS and what's not...

I allow persons (like yourself) to turn that lens on me from time to time...

If I think you've missed the point, I'll provide a re-buttal... It's in the court of public opinion to decide...

---

If I could make an "auto assessment" of what I do... I'd describe it as "guerilla warfare"... It's probably NOT FAIR...

But then again, if you study your history, it's how most wars are eventually won...

- Ask the Visigoths (vs. the Romans)
- Ask the Colonials (vs. the British)
- Ask the Taliban

Ask Sun Tzu for crying out loud... The best way to win a war is to put yourself in a position from which there is no retreat...

Someone like BR will eventually get beaten back because he's trying to defend a piece of territory...

CV has no territory to defend... So I am constantly on the attack...

I'm not on the Beach in Normandy looking up at Germans firing howitzers at me and saying... "You know - deep down those are probably some nice guys - so I think I'll just lay out my beach towel and put up a volleyball net"...

CV said...

@ahab

"being from the Northern latitudes and all"

Dude... In the summer, the sun is out for 20 hours a day in much of Sweden...

McFearless said...

"But, how far are we all supposed to go?"

As far as it takes.

I doubt people would be judging Barry about this like they are if he weren't so judgemental himself.

McFearless said...

and yeah, I don't hate Barry for not going, like I said, he can do what he wants.

he would have been a big hero for me if he went down there and spoke his mind like he does on his blog though. I don't have a voice a lot of people are interested in listening to, Barry does, maybe it wouldnt' have mattered, but I would have loved to see him try, it was just 1 day.

karen said...

Über hedge fund billionaire Paulson envisages $2,400-$4,000/oz gold
"If you don't own a home buy one," John Paulson advises, and hang on to your gold, the price of which will soar even higher when double-digit inflation hits in 2012.

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page34?oid=112071&sn=Detail&pid=110649

CV said...

@wunsa

You just fight whichever way you can...

You ALWAYS have to fight... Even against yourself... It's the only way to keep a species evolving...

While I don't want to trash the notion of PEACE... Peace is a misunderstood concept in the minds of most people...

I will guarantee you that the moment peace breaks out, we'll all wither and die as a species...

Hell - that's why the economy is so bad... WE GOT LAZY... We wanted to stop getting our hands dirty to produce things, farm it out to others, and sit back and enjoy our cozy peace...

Look where it's gotten us? And look who's gaining ground...

McFearless said...

I have opened a gold money account as of three days ago, will store my stuff overseas, I'm just buying in very small increments now to get started, I'll likely never sell it.

karen said...

personally, i consider Paulson a johnny-come-lately on the gold run.. as a matter of fact.. once all those guys.. soros included, jumped on the bandwagon, i (wrongly) started getting off.. Still have my physical, still have my miserable little miner that is diluting itself again to raise money.. but i have missed this last $300 or so..

i have decided that i am too contrary for my own good!!

wunsacon said...

>> Why can't CV get a comment posted at TBP...

C'mon. How am I supposed to be able to answer that without reading whatever dialogue transpired between you two over whatever period of time?

>> Correct me if I'm wrong... HERE - we let you do that...

Well, thank you. I do remember that I'm a guest here. And try not to annoy... Sorry if my criticism this AM is not well received. To the extent I'm conscious of my own inner motivations, I think I mean my criticisms here today to be constructive (and not just because I'm such an obvious TBP "fan")...

CV said...

@karen

Über hedge fund billionaire Paulson envisages $2,400-$4,000/oz gold
"If you don't own a home buy one," John Paulson advises, and hang on to your gold, the price of which will soar even higher when double-digit inflation hits in 2012.


As both you and I know (based on physical holdings)... "We're fine with that"... :-)

But if that's the case - get ready for...

"Über blog host CV envisages $10 for a loaf of bread and $10 a gallon gas"...

Now ask yourself...

- How many Americans are going to be BETTER OFF?
- How many WORSE?

Hmmm...?

wunsacon said...

>> I will guarantee you that the moment peace breaks out, we'll all wither and die as a species...

Well now...*that* is bleak! LOL. Maybe you're right.

No...no. We'll be okay. I'll see you in the matrix.

Alright, I've got to head to work. See you all later. Good trading.

McFearless said...

that hendry video had a lot of good info in it but the sound quality was crap so I had to listen to it three times, he made a point that is worth noting which is that he's not sure if people can hold something like gold for a number of years in anticipation of inflation or hyperiniflation without having some serious issues before we get there.

this was similar to my line of thinking on gold, in the big picture I'm a big time gold bull because I think all fiat is going to die in my lifetime, perhaps I missed the recent lows at 680 but I'm still not convinced deflation won't grip us again before a serious bout of inflation and drag gold down again much lower than it is today. Can it hit the 600's again, well, I'm very skeptical it'll even get close at this point, but like HH also said in that video, markets have this way of making the impossible possible on a regular basis.

CV said...

@wunsa

All my former comments (last year) at TBP are there to read...

So if anyone is curious, you can go see what type of rabble-rouser I am...

call me ahab said...

"so I think I'll just lay out my beach towel and put up a volleyball net"...

now that would be keeping your cool in the middle of adversity-

Sweden- summer- never been- I guess it would need the warmth factor to make it work-

too lazy to google it at the moment-

gotta take care of some things- will check in later

McFearless said...

also, we have some legit coin dealers here in DE so if any of you want to send me some cash I can get gold for you, really...I promise.

You can contact me here:

Ben's Good For It, Inc.
Cayman Islands

CV said...

@wunsa

"Well now...*that* is bleak! LOL. Maybe you're right."

Look - REALITY is that there's hardly any peace between a husband & wife (or within families)...

it doesn't mean they can't stay together and love each other...

But try relating the "concept" of PEACE that most people have to the dynamics of a core family unit...

When you can go that far... You can understand that it is possible to live (AND LOVE) in a world that isn't at PEACE...

That's my point...

CV said...

@McF (11:05)

ROR... "Check's in the mail" (and I promise it won't bounce)...

McFearless said...

this could be a fairly critical point as we keep making higher lows.

AmenRa said...

Ring ring.
Hello?
Is this Johnny?
Yes.
Are you all in yet?
Sure am.
Good. (giggling heard as phone is hung up)

AmenRa said...

Tested 1151.86 (.0557 from high) and failed. Daily candle currently forming a shooting star.

Jennifer said...

NFLX -- now down 11 pts in 2 hrs...

AmenRa said...

BTW isn't today eerily reminiscent of 10/30/09?

CV said...

@Amen

Yeah... kind of...

karen said...

if other shorts are as scared as i am they will be covering.. wonder if 1140 can break again..

McFearless said...

guess you have your answer to that one....

Jennifer said...

K Denninger has a piece that MERS and Chase Home Mortgage have been referred to federal prosecutor....

CV said...

"Chase You Out of Your Home" Mortgage...

karen said...

what's driving down the euro? just asking..

what changed..

CV said...

Cv gets the TM on that...

CV said...

@karen

"what's driving down the euro? just asking..

what changed.."

---

It's value...

McFearless said...

gnomes

McFearless said...

sorry karen, it's hard to take much serious these last few weeks

CV said...

@karen

I'm just trying to get you to your watermelon martinis with comedy :-)...

That's why it's called "SURVIVOR CAPITAL"...

...and you thought this was a doomsday armageddon blog?

CV said...

@mcF (11:38)

exactly...

It's improving my COMEDY skits tho :-)

CV said...

Kidding aside...

This is kind of the blueprint CV is following at the moment...

new chart in thread

CV would like to see either some support, or abandonment of the price channels in this chart...

McFearless said...

can't count a five yet, looks like a giant ABC right at this moment.

McFearless said...

I bet leftback sold that pop this morning

CV said...

I learned everything I know from that little 20 year old s**t "Channeling Stocks.com" guy...

See people what you do is... You BUY LOW, then you SELL HIGH...

Piece of cake! You don't even need Tepper...

karen said...

sorry i am in poor humor.. so much stress.. and my balcony and stairs to outside need to be torn up and redone.. that alone is going to take 2 weeks and lots of guys.. I am also being advised to pursue contractor for damages but that is another nightmare..

at least my son is out of the hospital and happy as a clam to be back at school. other son to receive job offer.. but probably here in so cal.. beggars cant be choosers, tho..

McFearless said...

apparently we may get up to 4 inches of rain today in this area? that's a lot of water.

McFearless said...

I thought the strategy of late was more about buying high and selling even higher

I think Lil Jon got low but I'm not sure any stocks did this year.

McFearless said...

could be worse Karen, you could be underwater or foreclosing.

McFearless said...

XLF is still up on the day

CV said...

@karen

when the going gets tough... the tough go shopping for yachts...

karen said...

my husband (ex) says Austin is thriving and economy strong.. btw.

karen said...

did i ever tell? he bot a prius in the end..

CV said...

"he bot a prius in the end"

Thank God... I'll celebrate by going outside and breathing the air again...

I was starting to get blue in the face from holding my breath because of the JET FUMES & limos that Al Gore takes to his gigs...

CV said...

...and does that mean I can cancel my plans to paint my roof white this weekend?

as Forrest Gump would say... "One less thing"...

I-Man said...

I have this as the early stages of a 3rd down off this mornings high...

Market is not "correcting" like it should if this were just a pullback I think.

Either there is a huge run brewing to take us back up another 100 pts or so on YM, or we're about to get real ugly in this bitch.

CV said...

@I-Man

If it breaks the middle channel market (in my 2nd chart above)... I may hop on for a ride down to KT (after a backtest of same line)...

call me ahab said...

man I hate people-

dude sends me an email- asking if he has to provide his wife's canceled checks(from whom he's separated) documenting that she pays the mortgage that shows up on his credit report-

it was what I asked for after all- and he doesn't qualify counting the mortgage payment against him and it is so he can get a mortgage w/ his new honey-

and my answer was yes- absolutely- unless you come down to my office in person and give me your scout's honor that your wife pays the mortgage-

so sick of this business

karen said...

i sincerely do not have a clue as to where we are going or what to do..

everything is crazy and nothing makes sense.

now my internet is down? great.

CV said...

@karen

Try this view...

new thread in chart

Looking a little "wedged in" (1050 - 1156) on the MONTHLY candle?

And look at the FIB extensions from that range base...

call me ahab said...

speaking of credit reports- reading ZH yesterday- such a staggering amount of misinformation-

dude's complaining that his father (who filed BK 10 years ago) was rejected by Bank of America even though the BK no longer appears on the credit report-

seems that BofA was one of the creditors who got hosed in the BK-

and they should give him a loan why?

golden rule- he who has the gold rules

(and all the comments about credit reports could not have been more wrong- and everyone is agreeing and high fiving each other- and I was going to post to correct them- but said fuck it- let them live in their ignorance)

call me ahab said...

. . .and it appears robotrader is "persona non grata" anymore-

some people dropping robotroll as an alternate moniker-

I thought the dude's posts were pretty good- and all the pretty pictures

CV said...

Maybe this makes it easier to see...

new chart in thread

Bruce in Tennessee said...

There is nothing wrong with living in ignorance. As long as your woman likes drinking beer too...

..Damn busy week...

CV said...

@ahab

why do you say "non-grata"...

I've only skimmed ZH recently, but it seems to me I saw his posts there very recently...

karen said...

Those charts are great, CV.. but we are either faced with a turn or a blast off.. and the blast off theory seems to be the popular delusion and madness of this crowd..

yes, the latter showed it best..

CV said...

@Bruce

"Damn busy week..."

Let me guess... All the JOHN DILLINGER bankers are coming in for face change operations... :-)

karen said...

yes, i want to know about RobotTrader..

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Leftback was in earlier disguised as Mickey Rourke. Put a bag over his head and stapled it to his shirt...

CV said...

@karen

I'd like to see what Andy (or Ben) has to say about a wedge like that (because the highs and lows of the MONTHLY candles wedge in perfectly)...

I think I've heard Andy T say before that those types of triangles tend to get busted at a certain "time" interval before they complete...

Then go on to complete the wedge...

If that's the case, then the next BREAKOUT might end up being a false move (which means if the breakout is to the UPSIDE - it'll eventually come reeling back to the conclusion of the apex of the wedge - timewise)...

I'd buy into that idea...

CV said...

@bruce

ROR

McFearless said...

ahab,

I hear you man, when you deal with people enough, especially when it comes to finances, you end up not being able to stand anyone, I feel like that a lot anymore.

call me ahab said...

I don't know- he doesn't post regularly anymore from what I can tell-

but read the comments- some friction going on over there- must have been a dust up-

but I have noticed it over the last few days-

and some dude calling him out as robotroll- saying he would post instead of him since robotrader quit posting-

and I did see that robotrader did post a day or two ago- but it wasn't well recieved

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Thanks for the information earlier Ben. I called Schwab and am considering it in the PFIUX form...and even though it is a load getting in the vig comes down from 1.3 to .9. Thanks.

CV said...

@karen

Guess where the 50% FIB lies between the length of the wedge (as it stands on this months close)?

1,103 & change (just over your top)...

McFearless said...

I just can't get into that site very much (ZH) but I do comb through it every couple of days.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

and I actually made a few bucks by selling the ECH I bought several days ago right after the bell. Even a blind hog....

call me ahab said...

gotta roll out again- cardiologist- stress test- turned 50 this year-

want to make sure I last a bit longer-

b22-

no doubt- I'm just sick of it- I mean we are lending you hundreds of thousands of dollars- will you pretty please do what we ask?

need a new gig-

talk to you all later

CV said...

@ahab

I kind of liked his posts... But I was sick of seeing RAMP JOB charts of some bullshit stock every day...

Like we all don't know that NETFLIX is going to infinity...

McFearless said...

Bruce,

not that this is advice but don't forget that Vanguard has a pretty large line-up of ETF's, I love using them for clients.

Since you are more in touch with your money than the average person this might be something to pursue since you can have more control with an ETF (stop losses, limit orders) than you can get with a fund.

Just a thought

Also, if you really like PIMCO they have some ETF's now as well though I think they are equity focused, I havent' really looked at them yet.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Thanks, Ben....I appreciate your thoughts as you know I am more an investor than a trader. I think my gut-wrenching all in days are far behind me..

McFearless said...

ahab,

yep, I do a financial plan for someone and show them they can be on track to retire if they save this much money into X vehicle and they get upset with me....like why am I asking them to save more....while I'm thinking, this is for your benefit dummy!

Getting people to save is like pulling teeth sometimes, I get it (because it's more fun to spend now right)....but at the same time I don't.

CV said...

@McF

I find ZH highly useful for many reasons...

- Obviously, they're just about first with any juicy news feed...
- I personally don't care if there is some bias... I think I'm intelligent enough to figure out which is meaningful, and which is fluff...
- Sometimes the comments are funny as hell...
- I LIKE it when people argue (and it doesn't insult my "feelings" to read people go at each other)... IT IS THE FIGHT CLUB over there, after all...
- Sometimes there's a good link buried in the threads somewhere...

CV has a user handle over there, but I don't think I've posted anything since about last June or so...

karen said...

Bruce.. i am so surprised.. thot you were thinking ECH was a long term hold that you would add to.. right when i am ready to believe stocks will GUF, you sell?? : )

McFearless said...

C,

I think I just don't go enough. I did read the comments over there with this latest Barry thing with them, a lot of them were really funny.

I just have too many daily reads already, only so much time in the day, even when you hardly sleep.

CV said...

also... whoever that "chet" dude is over there... that's NOT me...

karen said...

i'm not cut out for these manic swings.. my own or the markets ; )

karen said...

hey, CV, i think you GS slogan is #4 on the BR's list

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/09/top-10-ideas-for-goldman-sachs-new-ad-campaign/

CV said...

@MCF

I totally understand your "time constraints"...

I'm not responsible for managing OP's$ like you, so your time has to be applied elsewhere...

I'm looking at this from a JOURNALISTIC POV... I try to make this blog entertaining (to pass the time watching the grass grow - I mean, watching the ALGOS trade)...

I find ZH very entertaining...

BR I find, sometimes witty, but not real entertaining in the grand scheme of things...

CV said...

@karen (1:01)

How could it be? I never posted it over there...

Did ahab do a "ghost post" for me?

McFearless said...

lots of people calling for some kind of turn on 10/5....lot of people....maybe too many.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Karen,

I do think stocks based on some emerging economies will do better than the US variety. But I have one rule that forces its way into my consciousness every now and then, and it is, if I am looking at a profit (I think this was 2% in 10 days or something) and my latest information looks less happy, then take the sure profit...

that's sorta what happened this morning. ECH regained all the footing it lost yesterday, and since I bought it they've added riots in Europe, more drum beating about a currency war with China, and the other news you've seen.

...I don't ever lock in my thinking...not ever.

karen said...

i like to read Mark's posts:

http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/09/could-be-important-reversal.html#idc-container

CV said...

@karen

No... I just checked...

#4 was BR's entry... (so he's putting himself up close to the medal podium)...

Mine was ABOVE IN THIS THREAD...

New Goldman Sachs (Lite) - We STILL answer to a higher authority

...and it had the HEBREW NATIONAL ad attached to it...

McFearless said...

those hebrew nationals are some good dogs, though I prefer Smiths in Erie PA.

karen said...

from trader mark: "As an aside I have read that on some technical measures the NASDAQ is more overbought than at any time in 1999. If you lived 1999 you know how insane that means things are right now."

No wonder my head hurts so badly.

CV said...

x2...

good dogs...

CV said...

I tend to go the way of Johnsonville brats tho...

Andy T said...

cv@12.47

That longer term wedge you drew up doesn't quite the fit bill of a triangle type pattern for me, but who knows. A triangular wedge should have five legs to it.

Interesting nonetheless.

McFearless said...

in case anyone is ever around up there:

http://www.smithhotdogs.com/

the hams are really good too

maybe 72bat has had it before

CV said...

@karen

You've heard me express that thought many times this summer...

That the PRICE LEVITATION in the market has more of a 1999 "feel" to it...

Kind of like... "OK we know we're not really growing our TOP LINE revenues"... So let's just do some multiple expansion and make everything look hunky dory... after all even the government of the United States engages in ENRON accounting these days... Why can't we?"...

DL said...

I've now shorted this market eight times in the last two weeks, and covered each time. I've actually managed a small gain (about $1300) despite "swimming against the tide".

CV said...

@Andy T

Thanks for at least "chiming in" on that...

I bow to your recollections of past patterns...

CV said...

@Andy T

If you're still around... wait a sec and I'll put up another look...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Karen,

I also have developed a set of trading laws that I will be happy to share with you this fine lunch hour and in the following weeks.

One of Bruce's trading laws is: If you have bought a stock, and you've only held it a few days, and you wake up one morning and discover that you've made 1-5% in that short time interval and you get the urge to sell it that day...

Law Number 1: If you don't sell it that day, all your profit will disappear by the end of that trading day. You can put it in your book....

karen said...

following CAT: http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/strange-new-high-victory-for-caterpillar-cat-turned-into-agonizing-defeat/

72bat said...

ben -
smith's, can't say that i've had the pleasure. don't eat that many dogs as it is.
throw in the occasional johnsonville brat when the smoker gets fired up

karen said...

The only explanation I have for CAT's 8 pt or 10% rise last week was the dollar's fall..

CV said...

@Andy T

What do you think of that (enough touches)?...

new thread in chart

what I notice is that from 1987, there were two breakouts from that wedge... Both went to the same deviation...

Moreover - we're smack dab in the middle of it as we speak...

karen said...

and the DGDF theory.. making CAT's exports ever so affordable.

CV said...

@Bruce

Or... you could look at my (11:22), which is a tried & true technical indicator...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://money.cnn.com/2010/09/30/news/economy/postal_rate_announcement/index.htm

Postal Service denied rate hike

"The committee wrote in its unanimous decision that the "Postal Service has failed to meet its burden under the law, and the Commission is unanimous in denying its request for an exigent rate increase."

While USPS was able to demonstrate that the recession created the kind of "extraordinary or exceptional" circumstances that would merit the proposed 5.6% average increase on mail costs -- the requested increase was due to retiree benefits."

...It certainly appears that the gnashing of teeth about public pensions has finally reached lots of ears...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Yes, CV...I agree. I have other laws, like, if you've put in a good amount of study and feel very good about buying ABC stock....I suppose rule two might be:

If you buy stock the day before you will be away from your computer all day...you should short that stock instead as invariably when you check the ticker when you get in after the bell, your new position in your pet stock will have tanked...

CV said...

@Andy

Interestingly... That larger chart of monthly candles occurred in 10/87...

The significant "reversals" (and/or launch points), occurred as follows:

3/95 - beginning of massive ramp
10/00 - peak
10/02 - '02 bottom
10/07 - '07 top
3/09 - 666 bottom

All in March or October...

CV said...

@Bruce

If I were you... I'd come up with a different strategy...

Put IT ALL, each week, on #18 for the Colts winning the game...

But be sure to check CV's picks first... (90% of the time you'll get a thumbs up)...

CV said...

More JOB CREATION by the diligent and watchful Obama Administration:

Outsourcing safety: Airplane repairs move to unregulated foreign shops

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39383369/ns/travel/

Obama said...

My view on corporations:

Regulate 'em, sue 'em or tax them out of existence.

CV said...

@Obama

When I want your opinion... I'll give it to you...

CV said...

@Obama

Oh... and also...

Rahm Emanuel To Resign Today, To Begin Chicago Mayoral Bid

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/rahm-emanuel-resign-today-begin-chicago-mayoral-bid

How many rats are left?

CV said...

Vote Early... Vote Often!

karen said...

Have I mentioned my headache?

CV said...

@karen (1:58)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0x-fkSYDtUY

karen said...

and I thot i had problems with my balcony...

http://www.dailytech.com/Hotel+Accidentally+Makes+Solar+Death+Ray+Burns+Lawyer/article19756.htm

karen said...

CV, LOL.. but i do think that would just make my headache worse!

CV said...

@karen

So what? Are you going to go for a "Romeo & Juliet" meme for your balcony? :-)

CV said...

I-Man, ben, Bruce, Andy, McHappy, 72 (and most others) are already taken...

LB is lurking! :-)

Jennifer said...

Karen -- got so caught up in the story about the solar death ray that was on the radio while I was out running my post preschool list of errands that I drove right by the dry cleaners without stopping. Melts plastic drink ware. Architects were aware of the potential for this problem, but thought a protective window film would compensate. Can't wait for it to cause a nice fire out there in the parched desert.

CV said...

You wouldn't want CV...

I'd convert a room in your house to having, like, and NFL football phone... A helmet that you could fill with ice as a beer chest... Some FATHEADS on the wall, and one of those beer dispenser hats...

You'd be on your toes making guacomole dip all weekend...

:-)

McFearless said...

More on Muni's:

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/09/huge-flaw-in-municipal-bond-assumptions.html

McFearless said...

I see some stating five down today in stocks, five up in the dollar.

lets not be in a hurry squad, I dont' think those counts past the test.

karen said...

CV, sent you a foto of my very not R & J type balcony.. you will see my distress..

karen said...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/here-how-worlds-biggest-bond-funds-and-others-get-advance-notice-what-fed-about-do

my head is now killing me..

McFearless said...

did anyone post this yet, today's topstep

http://mrtopstep.com/2010/09/30/ffffade-away-day/

McFearless said...

so what if they get advance notice....do I need to provide examples of what I mean?

McFearless said...

1104.90 if things get ugly today....well, we better get a move on eh?

McFearless said...

take a look:

http://www.cboe.com/data/IntraDayVol.aspx

karen said...

ben.. how could the market get ugly? the other ben has it backstopped, remember?

CV said...

@McF (2:25)

No... Why?... NOISE...

Now here's something CV can sink his teeth into...

I can hardly wait for Christmas (I've been telling you all about this since the ACADEMY AWARDS post last March)...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uco41pOKeJg

Bruce in Tennessee said...

CV:

I like your strategy. I have learned one thing about pro football:

When the Giants won the Super Bowl there must have been a tear in the fabric of the universe. They didn't have anything like a complete team prior to that year, and certainly haven't had one sense.

Maybe they didn't win it, and it was faked..you know, like walking on the moon...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

since he said.

karen said...

i love a western!! can't wait for that either !!

CV said...

@Bruce

"Maybe they didn't win it, and it was faked..you know, like walking on the moon..."

I concur... Or OTHER things like... Obama is POTUS...

It's all a fake I tell you... He's not really POTUS... George Bush is still POTUS... That's why everything is still effed up...

Trust me!

McFearless said...

gotta love seeing statements like this:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Barrick-Gold-swears-off-ibd-4139469248.html?x=0&.v=1


"The gold producer doesn't see itself or rivals ever returning to hedging, at any price, its CFO said in a published interview."

forever? for eva eva?

CV said...

@karen

CV hasn't been to the movies yet this year...

I'll be first in line for that one though!

McFearless said...

karen, CV,

That's what Tim said at the end of the top step video, my 2:28.

karen said...

ben.. i couldn't really read the cboe page.. not my forte..

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