AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection



Creditcane™: You have climbed to the mountaintop. Now I'm about to cut the rope.



SPX
Hanging man day (failed to confirm bearish harami). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above the trendlines (3/6/09-7/1//10), (2/5/10-5/6/10) & (4/26/10-8/9/10). Above all SMA's. Above 1110.02 (the .09 fibo from high) and was heading for 1151.86 (the .0557 fib from high). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1125.07). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bearish long day (imploded the morning star). Below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below its 61.8% retrace at 79.72. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 79.79).



VIX
Inverted hammer day. Midpoint slightly above EMA(10). Below weekly 3LB mid and monthly 3LB mid. Still below all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 23.89). Trending down on daily 3LB.



GOLD
Hanging man day (major rope). Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Made a new 0% retrace. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1294.60).



EURUSD
Bullish long day (another star implodes). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and passed its 50% retrace. Above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.3384).



JNK
Dragonfly doji day. Above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and passed the 85.4% retrace. Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal now 39.47).



10YR YIELD
Bearish long day. The 0.0% fibo retrace at 24.69 gave up the ghost. Made a new 0%. Still below the weekly 3LB mid (27.60) and all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal now 27.95).



AUDJPY
Spinning top day. Held its 61.8% retrace. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 79.5441).



DJ TRANS AVG
Hanging man day. Holding above the upper trend line and all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 4382.93).




CRB
Shooting star day. Still above the 100% retrace at 280.69. Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 280.14). Held above its monthly 3LB reversal price.




LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Bond Report 9.28.10

The EoQ beckons. Performance anxiety reigns on the Street as fixed income managers bought everything in sight. There are bonuses, bragging rights, Ukrainian escorts and lines of blow to compete for....

Greed is Blind.

Corpies: LQD 0.18%; AGG 0.24%; JNK 0.20%; HYG 0.15%;
Govies: TLT 0.68%; IEI 0.20%; TIP 0.70%
Hedgies: TBT -1.34%

We enjoyed the show for the last few days, and sold another tranche of our fixed income, selling AGG and LQD. We are now down from a high of near 50% bonds to something closer to 17%, of which most is now JNK, and zero is Treasuries. We are close to shorting TLT, very close.

It is possible that the low in TNX is not in yet, and that the JPY and TLT will continue to rally on as late-comers join the party. We may find that we have left money on the table. But we have booked some good profits this year in bonds and have largely eliminated interest rate and economic recovery risk from our portfolio.

We prefer to seek risk-free reward at the expense of reward-free risk. This is how we roll.


21 comments:

ben22 said...

Thanks as always Ra.

I liked this comment I saw today:

The data point manipulation of the economy is now out expanding the contracting economy.

Leftback said...

Wait and see what they come up with next week for the last jobs report before the Midterm Erection. A big gain in jobs, stocks go zooming up, bears get toasted, everybody happy.... all that and zero FELLATION...!

Of course, it will be revised in December....

Cynical, Moi?

wunsacon said...

I'm holding back on buying more commodities. Despite my bullish argument the other day, every commodity has gone vertical the past month.

Isn't cowardice the better part of valor?

AmenRa said...

LB

Last weeks weekly claims was during the week polling is done for the Employment Situation. Since it was WTE the jobs report should follow suit. But like you said, it is the last one before the midterm elections...

karen said...

Thanks, AR.. having a fit tonight.. can't decide which candle i hate the most, either : )

Bruce in Tennessee said...

There is not a reader of this blog who cannot make more profit than they've made in the last 6 months. Not one.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

I am really a little hacked at myself, frankly. Mentally lazy and content with the status quo.

...I will do better. And did better today, even though I had to buy before the bell.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Thanks guys for the spirited discussion the last several days...

...tomorrow.

call me ahab said...

just got done reading the bloggin' Wall Streeter's post about ZH-

the comments are howl worthy-

a few dropped that ZH had too much conspiracy shtick going on- that they now read the Daily Kos (and the TBP of course)-

RAFF THE FUCK OUT ROUD

call me ahab said...

. . .and I'm wondering-

the whole expectation of Fed liquidity action-

appears to get the Wall Streeter's wetting themselves-

what happens if the Fed doesn't follow through on the expectation?

Tepper is so certain- but- does the good outcome (assuming the Fed does follow through) happen twice in such a short time?

McFearless said...

man ahab, I was wondering where you were with BR's post.

CV said...

@ahab

I sent you a trade proposal in FF...

a 3 for 1 deal...

call me ahab said...

b22-

I was perusing the comments from the last couple days

AT gets kudos for throwing back to BR the cringe worthy comment- you know- "The Wall Streeter Who Blogs"-

and CV gets trademark on TWSWB- knowing that was the low water mark (for now)

CV-

I'll check it out- Ryan Mathews has been a bit of a bust (so far)- I am extremely short on RB's and Schaub has been hit or miss

CV said...

Also this...

"does the good outcome (assuming the Fed does follow through) happen twice in such a short time?"

I still want somebody to directly correlate FED actions with a "good outcome"

On OCTOBER 1st, 2008 the S&P was at 1,150...

Guess where we are today?

So if one was from Mars, and was asked to come down and offer an objective opinion as to how much FED ACTIONS helped the S&P...

Well, look where we are today... Same 1,150 (actually- we seem to be struggling to get thru)...

One could EASILY make the case that FED actions had nothing to do WHATSOEVER with anything...

One could argue that the dip down to 666 (from October to March was simply the result of)

- Massive de-leveraging
- Uncertainty over political landscape
- revised estimates (downward) for profits

Then - one could argue that the SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT element to "boost" the market was the change of the FASB rules (in May of 2009)...

When that happened, the market was struggling to get back north of 800...

So I don't see, if all of this is "priced in", how stocks are going to levitate much further...

Unless by some miracle of multiple expansions, and mom and pop coming back into the market and acting as they did in the 90's...

I've got news for you...

Mom & Pop [baby boomers] (in the 90's were at the peak of their earnings potential... Now they're ready to retire, have already lost a lot of their investments, and are just looking to retain what's left...

There will be no more housing booms, and it's likely that their son & daughter will be moving back in with them (saddled with school loans)...

Now tell me what QE 2,3,4 etc. is going to do for the S&P...

CV said...

@ahab

I offered two RB's as a replacement...

Sproles & Steven Jackson

& Steve Smith as wideout

Sproles is consistent, and sometimes can put up big days...

Jackson is solid as they come (but injury prone)

Steve Smith is still a #1 wideout, but I'm stack with WR's & so he's expendable...

call me ahab said...

"SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT element to "boost" the market was the change of the FASB rules (in May of 2009)..."


no doubt- and the market may have shot up had there not been such shell shock going on-

but my point is- the folks who bought into the Fed- at the lows- profited-

Tepper being one- so what I am saying is- does that mean that that if the Fed wades in again-

the same result? That easy? No thinking required?

My impression is that it may not even happen at all- and if it does- a way different outcome may occur-

I am really sick of these folks who seem to have it all figured out- Fed in- markets up- make coin-

ok then

CV said...

You have to think that Tepper's low was probably around 1000...

So great - you've made your 11%... and now it's time to go on TV to sell it to J6P...

You ought to know by now that that's how it works...

call me ahab said...

Tepper's not a stud?

wow- I'm bummed now

CV said...

And of course these people have to toss out numbers like DOW 38,000 by 2030...

It's UNQUANTIFIABLE... A zillion things could happen in between (not to mention that if, IN FACT, it hits 38,000 - the cost of a loaf of bread will probably be $20 - so you've LOST buying power)...

If they're WRONG... they can blame it on a BLACK SWAN that they "never saw coming"

But surely nobody is going to jump up and down and scream "The S&P is going to 1200 by the end of the year:...

Pfft! That's only 4.5% from here (hell, you could get that with 2 nice up days)... (and also implies an END OF THE ROAD scenario)...

If you're selling snake oil... It's gotta be a MIRACLE CURE... Nobody in the audience is going to buy a bottle of ointment that promises to make your aches and pains diminish by .04%

And then you have guys like TWSWB... Who stands there and basically just tries to stay OUT OF THE WAY of these claims by others...

He's either too smart (or chickenshit) to make a call of his own... Probably a little of both...

So if someone else wants to stick their neck out with one of those outrageous calls... He's not going to stand in the way as long as he can make fees from clients based on the hype that others create...

That's why he's FOS...

Because let's say he DOESN'T believe any of them... Well then... Why not SAY SO (being as you're a big fat blogger & all)?

Answer... It would cost him money...

So he just sits there, rakes it in, goes yacht shopping, and tells all the PEONS how their political minds should operate...

Phoney Baloney!

AmenRa said...

Same day. Same algos. BS.

CV said...

new thread

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This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.