Sunday Evening Post & Monday Morning Audibles (CV Version)

You all need to stop reading this blog right now... I'm clearly out of touch with "the pulse" of the AMERICAN way of life... Why? Because I fail to see any HOPE... CHANGE... or merit whatsoever in what has been splashed across the headlines this weekend...


An anthology...


Spanish Police Close Public Beach for Michelle Obama's £250,000 Spanish Holiday

It's bizarre, because sometimes when you try to link onto that article, you get this:


Anyway... Here's some of the foto anthology (in case you were working hard trying to make ends meet and make sure that your TAXES were paid and missed the frivolity)...





While Obama Preaches Sacrifice, His Family Frolics in Spain

I know, I know... That was only the wifey... And it's hard to control the wifey when you hand her the credit card and send her off to the mall (while you sit at home being prudent)...

Obama Choppers Six Miles For Economy Comments

President Obama Friday flew Marine One from the White House less than six miles to Northwest D.C.

He choppered to Gelberg Signs, the Washington, D.C.-based company where he'll deliver remarks on the economy and July employment numbers. (According to Google maps, the drive would have taken about 20 minutes from the White House).

You know... Stuck in your MAN CAVE all hunkered down (while you're preach austerity and are hard at work lookin' out for the LITTLE guy who dreams of HOPE & CHANGE)...


Obama To Play Presidential Pickup With NBA Stars

"U.S. President Barack Obama, who enjoys shooting hoops with family and friends, will take on a couple of tougher -- and much taller --opponents Sunday: the Phoenix Suns’ Grant Hill and the Houston Rockets’ Shane Battier.

The game of presidential pickup will be held at Fort McNair in southwest Washington.

It’s been a bachelor sporting weekend for Obama, whose wife , Michelle, and younger daughter, Sasha, are in Spain."


Obama Caps Birthday Week with Golf, Plans for BBQ

Is that REALLY "hope" & "change" you're selling? Or is it just KOOL AID? And if so... We wary all you OTHER potential KOOL AID sellers out there... The man in the middle of all this hope & change might just send the black helicopters out after you if you start selling some of your own...

Lemonade Stands Get Reprieve:

"After 20 minutes of selling lemonade made from their gallon jugs of bottled water and Kool-Aid packets, a health inspector asked for their license. They didn't have one, and the inspector warned them to stop or face up to a $500 fine..."
---

People... I don't know... Obviously, I'm OUT OF TOUCH... I'm simply "missing the point" here... In any case, that won't stop me from coming up with a MUSICAL ANTHOLOGY to express what feelings these headlines evoke...

Stairway to Heaven - FLOTUS... Is this you?


There’s a lady whose sure all that glitters is gold 
And she’s buying a stairway to heaven...

...and it makes me wonder

Yes, there are two paths you can go by but in the long run 
Theres still time to change the road youĂ‚’re on. 

Dear lady, can you hear the wind blow, 
And did you know: 
Your stairway lies on the whispering wind...

And as we wind on down the road, 
Our shadows taller than our soul...
There walks a lady we all know...
Who shines white light and wants to show… 
How everything still turns to gold...
And if you listen very hard the tune will come to you at last. 
When all are one and one is all, yeah, to be a rock and not to roll. 

And she’s buying a stairway… to Heaven. 

But CV doesn't REALLY know anything... He's just your average, run-o-the-mill "opinionater"... A LUNATIC, I tell you!

You May Be Wrong

Regardless... The only thing that keeps me alive every day is to "spill it all over the stage"... after all...

It's Only Rock & Roll

Nevertheless... There's something in my gut that says...

Bad Moon Rising

One of the CLASSIC "head scratchers" that I witnessed this same weekend was the following... I'm pulling out of the parking lot of one of your classic "strip malls", and the car in front of me is this tricked out INFINITY (car model)... In the middle of the back winshield was a "D&G" decal (pause & reflect the a second... A D&G "decal" on a friggin car [Please don't ask me to tell you whether or not it had a Obama/Biden '08 sticker, or a "Yes We Did" sticker on the bumper])... Must have been getting ready for this weekend's beach party...

The BOY SCOUTS (2010 National Jamboree) seemed mighty displeased (they must not have gotten the memo)... It must be a D&G thing... Maybe D&G refused to make their scouting outfits... You never know what you're going to have to "Be Prepared" for, these days...


 So please... All you ENLIGHTENED ones out there... Give me some help... Help a poor brother out who has CLEARLY lost his way...

Show Me the Way

If there are any economic reports that come up before the Monday open, I'll add to this thread...

Next week? Rumors of a "QE2 Lite" coming from the FOMC meeting... We need all that stimulus to have any HOPE of "Livin' Large" (Like Louis XVI & Marie Antoinette)...

Until then, I'll have my eye on LVMH stock on "Melt-up Mondays"... Hopefully, I'll be able to make some coin so I can afford to pay my taxes for these jet & helicopter rides...

& in the meantime... Enjoy your CAKE everyone!


236 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 236   Newer›   Newest»
Anonymous said...

Marie Antoinette! What a waste of tax payers' money.

@ Nic, thank you for your comment(post from ft.com).

Nic said...

Lucky Mrs Obama :)

I am not getting the D&G thing, must have some meaning I don't know.

Nic said...

How Finreg really went down...
Matt Taibbi on neutering the reformists

mcHAPPY said...

I'm still waiting to see a 1140 plus (max 1170) reading on the SPX. Here is something interesting:

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/UST10Y

Compare five year chart with SPX.

During major market turns, the yield diverges a couple of weeks in advance. I think we are in one of those periods.

mcHAPPY's checklist for next market breakdown:

1) break Friday's lows.
2) Close below 1095.
3) close below 1083.
4) Any break of 1056.

DL said...

Hallelujah.

One prominent Democrat has come out against another big stimulus package. Robert Rubin.

Maybe he’s not so bad after all.

http://tinyurl.com/2cuezeg

CV said...

@Nic (8:14)

It's about a bankrupt culture... A culture of "bling"... A culture whose ambitions lie with "puttin on airs"... "frontin'"... Instead of producing anything of lasting value...

A D&G decal? On a car?

Yeah sure... Let me just stick labels all over myself... That ought to give you a glimpse into my soul and tell you something...

Or here... Maybe someone can just sing it to you... (for full effect)...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jd9D9jOzSWs

What you gon' do with all that junk?
All that junk inside your trunk?
I'ma get, get, get, get, you drunk,
Get you love drunk off my hump.
My hump, my hump, my hump, my hump, my hump,
My hump, my hump, my hump, my lovely little lumps (Check it out)

I drive these brothers crazy,
I do it on the daily,
They treat me really nicely,
They buy me all these ices.
Dolce & Gabbana,
Fendi and NaDonna
Karan, they be sharin'
All their money got me wearin' fly
Brother I ain't askin,
They say they love my ass ‘n,
Seven Jeans, True Religion's,
I say no, but they keep givin'
So I keep on takin'
And no I ain't taken
We can keep on datin'
I keep on demonstrating.

CV said...

@Nic

We've clearly reached the Lucius Aurelius Commodus Antoninus phase of the decline of the Roman Empire...

CV said...

But CV clearly didn't get the memo...

Oh wait - it just arrived... New avatar...

There, I feel much better now... Now let's get back to talking about important things... Like keeping a bid under ASSet prices...

Anonymous said...

Your usual cheery self I see CV ha! But its hard not to be utterly cynical. Maybe James Turk has pegged the future correctly, savings backed 1 to 1 by gold in personal accounts based in Jersey outside the clutches of bankrupt nations... commerce done with merchants (a la PayPal) in digital gold totally outside the banking system.

Is there any chance that govts and banks left to their own devices will not utterly debase our wealth?

But then I start feeling like a damned conspiracy theorist. While I take heart in Prechters idea of cash increasing in value due to impossibility of govts ever inflating to the level of deleveraging, I feel my confidence in a deflationary future slowly ebbing and start to wonder why the hell I didn't put everything in land and resource investments in 2007 instead of cash.

Bertie

Anonymous said...

I assume everyone's gold shorts are stopped out?

I heard the view expressed that gold prices can no longer drop since so much investment now is private and is physically backed - with an investing emphasis on long-term accumulation on dips.

I was interesting in Karen's IRA having been 100% PMs at one stage, I'd be curious to know what changed your mind Karen?

Bertie

CV said...

@Bertie

The bottom line is...

Land is for those whose desire is to SUSTAIN (assuming your land is viable for the purpose - meaning: there is a DIFFERENCE between LAND and REAL ESTATE)...

A "condo" is real estate... It ain't gonna help you much...

WHEREAS

PM's are for those who desire to TRANSACT (exchange medium)...

Ultimately - the well prepared individual will have some of both...

As previously mentioned... The land needs to be "structurally viable"

- located in a relatively safe terrain
- surrounded by resources (woods, streams, lakes)
- Have "semi decent" soil
- Hopefully have its own water supply
- Be versatile to harvest energy

All that is just the BEGINNING

As for TRANSACTIONS... I believe in a "scalable" approach...

Despite all the talk about gold... I believe COPPER & SILVER are the best starting points...

In the US... Pre-1964 coinage was 90% silver... These coins are the best, in terms of recognition in terms of accurate weight and value...

If TSHTF, you're NOT going to be bartering with BARS of GOLD... Instead, you'll use smaller clips of worth... DIMES/QUARTERS/HALF DOLLARS/DOLLARS...

Physical Gold... IMO... Should only be accumulated for HIGH WEALTH individuals who have first procured the smaller, transactional coinage...

Also... HARD goods...

It's funny... But a "quarter", or a "dime" in another BARTERABLE good would be those small "airplane size" bottles of booze...

You'll only know what I mean if you can project your mind into dire circumstances...

So these items are the LAST on my list... Nevertheless, they make the list...

Anonymous said...

Thanks CV!

(and I thought I was a pessimist hehe) I'll confess that I'm perhaps still far too trusting in the efficacy of govts since my mind rebels at the sort of societal breakdown you are envisaging, but it makes sense to prepare in terms of a Pascalian wager.

Bertie

Anonymous said...

And I'm already on board with stockpiling alcohol :-)
B.

CV said...

@Bertie

"I'll confess that I'm perhaps still far too trusting in the efficacy of govts since my mind rebels at the sort of societal breakdown you are envisaging"

---

Think of it this way... In this country, the day AFTER Thanksgiving is called "Black Friday" (which - assumedly, opens the Christmas consumer melee)...

The tradition is that people line up in the early hours of the morning at big box retailers in order to procure "special offers" (which are dangled to get shoppers into the store)...

It has happened MANY times that when the doors are opened, STAMPEDING HOARDES of shoppers literally trample others to death... TO DEATH...

People actually DIE shopping...

Now - these episodes happen in a country that is ABUNDANT in food, resources, and everything else... Moreover, it happens during "good times" (and - more precisely - during the HAPPIEST part of the season, between two "feel good" holidays)...

As as to the subject of societal breakdown?

Place your bets...

If people get trampled to death in good and abundant circumstances, what might happen if times ever get rough?

Just askin...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/07/22/obama-gulf-coast-vacation_n_656152.html

Obama Gulf Coast Vacation: First Family To Visit Florida In August

...CV,

This vacation in Spain was just the pre-vacation so that the upcoming vacation in Florida wouldn't wear them out.

...Sometimes a vacation or two or three is what you need...or four...or

Anonymous said...

Yes a pre-vacation is the way to go, just to get in the mood... Not to mention the post-vacation, to wind down at the end. I see no problem with that, Bertie

Bruce in Tennessee said...

...This is Mish's headline this morning. I thought there are many points in this article that I would agree with. There are many ways we can go about getting out of this mess, and I don't think we've really come to terms with what has happened....maybe on an individual basis, but not in the mainstream press...

The world changed in September 2008. We call it a regime shift. It's a move from one (good) equilibrium to another (bad) equilibrium. Statistical models that worked well in the old regime don’t work in the new regime. We hustled to adjust our models, but admitted that with limited experience in the new regime, we were less confident in our forecasts.

Some economists didn’t recognize the regime shift. They went about their business using the same old models in a new world. Comments about the length of a typical recession or about how sharp declines are followed by rapid recoveries were clear signals that the speaker didn’t understand the situation.

Some economists were fooled by the stimulus. The rules of accounting cause government spending to be reflected as an increase in economic activity. Stimulus plans such as Cash for Clunkers and tax credits for home purchases moved the timing of transactions, artificially reinforcing the direct spending impacts. Similarly, bailouts and foreclosure prevention programs postponed the recognition of losses.

Many interpreted the resulting increase in last winter’s reported activity as permanent, but that could not be. We were not building anything or laying the groundwork for sustained prosperity. Instead, we were just continuing the previous decade’s consumption binge. The banks had failed, but the government had stepped in. It became the mother of all banks, borrowing from future citizens and other countries to fuel today’s consumption.

Today, enough time has passed that even the most slowly adapting forecasters are forced to confront the post-2008 data and the government’s failed economic efforts. As forecasters confront these facts, their forecasts are becoming increasingly gloomy. Now, forecasts of protracted malaise or even a double-dip recession are increasingly common. Why?

Because we borrowed to extend a consumption binge, and we compounded that error with omissions and perverse policy.

The stimulus’s omissions are glaring. We didn’t significantly invest in infrastructure that would improve our future growth. We failed to address the weaknesses in our education sector that fuel increasing inequality, sentence many to a life of hopelessness, and permanently constrain our economic growth. We did nothing to encourage small business’s growth; in an example of perverse policy, we are actually creating a new regulatory regime that favors large companies.

Then there were the actions that will probably restrain future economic growth. The minimum wage was raised. We had health care reform, but we didn’t address the real problem: the fact that the health care consumer pays an insignificant portion of the bill at the time of consumption. We had financial reform that failed to address the fundamental problems of too-big-to-fail, and we protected risky activities, increasing the regulatory burden and crippling the ability of small banks. We halted much of our offshore drilling.

Looking forward, there is little reason for optimism. We’re considering huge increases in our energy costs through greenhouse gas regulation. We have a massive tax increase scheduled at the end of the year.

While a double-dip recession is not the most likely outcome, we can’t reject the possibility. More likely, we face a long slow struggle to overcome ourselves and restore real prosperity. The forecasters’ consensus appears to be moving toward accepting that reality.

karen said...

morning all! I know I'm crazy since I keep coming back to the market every day.. and right off the bat I see this:

Commercial Real Estate Lobby Ask For Taxpayer Aid To Help Recapitalize Banks Saddled With Billions In Undewater CRE Loans

karen said...

CV.. laughing at your new profile page..

CV said...

(rolls eyes)

CV said...

@karen

If you can't beat 'em...

CV said...

Maybe I'll get a tattoo...

A D&G tattoo...

CV said...

I'm starting to think that whatever the Fed does tomorrow, the market is going to use it as an excuse to sell off...

This reminds me of the October '07 Fed meeting (when the market was 'hoping for' a 1/2 point cut and got a .25)...

That really started it all...

If you ask me, this 1 trillion in "QEasing 2" (whatever it is) has already been largely priced in...

Congrats ben... It now costs you a trillion every time you want to move the S&P 80 points...

karen said...

sighing.. i need a new avatar, too! and CV, you can't get just one, so forget that idea.. hey.. uup is up.. will wonders never cease!

CV said...

Maybe that's all this is...

A test to see how many trillions will be needed when we hit 666...

My paper napkin estimate tells that if you get about 80 S&P points per trillion...

You'd need $5T at that point...

72bat said...

k -
whatever you put up to replace the current avatar, i guarantee a wail of protest will be heard

I-Man said...

"Vanity of vanities! All is vanity."
-King Solomon

Ecclesiastes 1:2

CV said...

@I-Man

Let's have a bonfire! and roast weenies

Anonymous said...

72b-

liked the Terra Haute IN story you shared over the weekend-

my father- born and raised in Chicago-

a bohunk of course- Chicago is full of them

CV said...

I'm telling you people...

I talked about JPM on friday (how it looked like a completed ABC)...

It's not looking good today so far either... These banks were the stocks that peaked a full week prior to April 26 (1220)

karen said...

were there some good stories over the weekend? i haven't looked at anything since friday.. today has a rather odd, unsteady feel to it.. or maybe it's just my head.

karen said...

"The deal illustrates how Wall Street banks, recipients of more than $300 billion in taxpayer bailouts in the worst credit collapse since the Great Depression, are profiting from helping states and cities close record recession-induced deficits by selling bonds and leasing public properties. Chicago gave up billions of dollars in revenue when it announced in 2008 that it leased Morgan Stanley its 36,000 parking meters, the third- largest U.S. system, for $1.15 billion to balance its budget, said Alderman Scott Waguespack."

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aPGo2IaZPsuc

Nic said...

Thanks for the info CV.
Next time I have lust for a Prada bag I will remember and knit myself a denim one instead :)
I am not a labels girl luckily.

CV said...

@karen

That WAS the "good" story (the thread)...

Elsewhere - there was this:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/08/07/AR2010080700075.html?hpid=newswell

... and Tiger made many bogeys...

Please send us your tweets of people getting killed to cheer us up :-)

Leftback said...

Politics is a sideshow. Put away the obsession with POTUS and stay focused on the ongoing heist...

But thanks for the Frampton rewind. You have total recall of that period, as do several of us, I am sure.

CV said...

@Nic

You see... TWSWB was off on a fishing trip this weekend...

So CV had to channel his "Grey Poupon" wrath elsewhere... :-)

Leftback said...

CV,

You could beat Tiger blindfolded at the moment. He has issues. You, on the other hand, have TILAPIA. Baby ones...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Tiger just needs a good night out on the town to cheer him up.....

Anonymous said...

if you can believe it- here is Peter Frampton now

CV said...

@LB

"The heist" is going on in slow motion... So that stuff is all FILLER...

You can blame Andy T... He abandoned us for two weekends (leaving CV to run the henhouse)... Which is a bad idea on weekends...

Speaking of THE HEIST...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D9c2l4oD5AY

Anonymous said...

looks like an economist

karen said...

here, if you want to rub salt into the wound:

The second largest U.S. residential mortgage funds provider reported a loss of $6.0 billion, or $1.85 per diluted share, in the second quarter, including a $1.3 billion dividend payment to the government.

That compares to an $8.0 billion loss in the prior quarter and is the best three-month performance in a year. The firm lost $840 million in the second quarter of last year.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE67826A20100809

Leftback said...

LB on 48 hour deadline, so will miss most of the MOMO fun. Will be back in force Wednesday for the Imminent Collapse of Western Civilization (b/c they need to sell some 10y Ts that day).

LB has started sending Simon Johnson and Matt Taibbi articles to his Congressperson. They may not do anything for us but at least they know we are on to the obvious grifters like Sch*m*r and D*dd.

Anonymous said...

Frampton that is

CV said...

@LB

& LB... I'd be happy to disregard the POTUS (& his frolicing antics) if he & the media would stop forcing themselves down my throat...

The NFL season hasn't started yet... I'll be pleasantly distracted after it starts, and therefore save you all from my political thunderbolts...

Leftback said...

Hello SAVERS !

This is JOHN Q PUBLIC here. I am going to make occasional appearances here from time to time to remind you what the US of A is all about.

That's right !!! DEBT, LABELS and CONSUMPTION. Let me assure you that JANE and I have no intention of altering our over-extended lifestyle. Does that shock you? Well, no need to panic, because we have a plan for our retirement. YOU LOSERS WILL PAY FOR US !!!.

Brilliant, eh? Let me outline a few details. On Average, the JOHN and JANEs out there have amassed $34K for retirement, which assuming no debt (!) and if we invest wisely (as if!) might return 4% p.a. = $1360/yr !! Well, that means we would be eating dog food, despite our big house, fancy appliances, Hummer H3 and country club membership.

Obviously we can't live in the style to which we are accustomed once we retire so we will be needing some fairly big handouts. Now where are those going to come from? YOU, obviously, our kids and grandkids as well, but who cares? JANE needs a new bag. So, carry on saving, and don't be selfish, we need your money.

Anonymous said...

Hurd's accuser-

"I was surprised and saddened that Mark Hurd lost his job over this. That was never my intention," the statement said. "Mark and I never had an affair or intimate sexual relationship."

karen said...

ahab.. fyi, your 10:13,PF link did not work..

Hurd's Accuser said...

He was all over me like a cheap suit.

karen said...

i was just reading that story in bloomberg and am so confused that i couldn't even share it:

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=agogFn6KjMek

Bubba said...

I did not have sexual relations with that woman

CV said...

Well at least it's pretty safe to say that I doubt there was any sexual harrassment going on with the WH "Economic Team"

So they have that going for them...

Tiger's Wood said...

What's confusing? He banged her like a stable door in a gale.

Obama said...

Just to let you know, the economy IS getting better! And, I am NOT a Post Turtle!

Andy T said...

Wow. Matt Simmons dies of a heart attack. I feel bad now.

CV said...

The "patterns" on a lot of these commodity stocks... Whether metals, fertilizers, or whatever...

They all look like they've completed WAVE 3's and are doing "pennant formation" wave 4's...

So something is going to have to take charge here or else this market may just drift sideways...

Anonymous said...

now that we have Kagan and Sotomayer on the Supremes-

those male justices will have a hard time keeping their hands to themselves-

Karen-

Peter Framption

Leftback said...

You're sweating, GOLDFINGER.

CV said...

@Andy T

His ghost is going to pay you a visit on Christmas Eve...

MANY ghosts are going to pay CV the same kind of visit...

Nic said...

Wow AndyT
I hope it wasn't his BP short that did it.

Anonymous Proctologist said...

Anger predisposes people to heart attacks. Keep that in mind.

karen said...

alaidi - Oil guru Matt Simons died $$

this is what happens when you are gone clipping a hedge for 15 minutes..

Tiny Tim said...

C and BAC are softer than a baby's bottom this morning. Maybe Mr Market knows I am going to sell into him before it all goes pear-shaped.

Mannwich said...

Thought this was very interesting. This is the number one most emailed article on the NYTimes recently:

But Will It Make You Happy?By STEPHANIE ROSENBLOOM
Published: August 7, 2010

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/08/business/08consume.html?_r=1&src=me&ref=business

The fact that this is even getting attention in the MSM tells me something. Some people are getting a clue and pushing back on the material goods-gathering, debt-burying trap. It's the banker's and TPTB's worst nightmare.

karen said...

CV is that you making all the alias posts?? pls stop it!!

Anonymous said...

I can't wait until the 1 Trillion in QE is announced tomorrow

CV said...

"Anger predisposes people to heart attacks"

So does McDonalds...

So does that mean if I go to Mickey D's and order the HAPPY MEAL, I'll be OK?

CV said...

@karen

It's not me... I only did the "Bubba" one...

72bat said...

k -
hint: "goes pear-shaped" = britishism

CV said...

Re: Simmons

Seems "perilous", these days to have a DISSENTING voice...

Remember this?

http://www.sott.net/articles/show/205674-Andrew-McGuire-whistle-blower-on-market-manipulation-injured-in-hit-and-run-accident

CV better watch his back!

Mannwich said...

And, by the way, there's nothing inflationary about that NYTimes article, certainly not for goods we don't need. More and more people are realizing they can live small and be happier, more content (and truly more "free") people overall.

Leftback said...

Nothing pear-shaped about Karen's avatar.

John Q Public said...

WRONG, Mannwich, you are giving me too much credit. Literally...

The Small is Beautiful movement is a figment of the imagination except among a small segment of the Chattering Classes*.

Out there, people are still asking "Where's My Stuff?"

* borrowed from my brother.

Wedgie said...

T-minus 15 minutes or less for total melt-up or breakdown on SPX

karen said...

bat.. oh yes, of course.. dumb of me.. but my eyes had already rolled by the last line.

CV said...

I an exonerated (save for the "Bubba" post)...

Leftback said...

LB's TRADE du JOUR is called SHORT HAVENS. You short gold, Treasuries and yen into the close on Friday, then sit back and enjoy the MOMO.

c'mon MOMOs... look, the B/Ds have to buy Ts on Tu, W, Th and they don't want to buy them here, so you generate a little MOMO action in stocks, and wham-O people will sell Treasuries, pushing up yields before the auction.

People get paid millions to do this ???

Mannwich said...

@John Q: Ah yes, perhaps right now it is, but many of YOUR types are starting to question the wisdom of these idiotic lifestyles. Some will never change but many (especially those with no kids) just might take the plunge and never look back.

Jim Carrion of Mordant Scamley said...

I GET PAID MILLIONS TO MAKE BAD CALLS, like 5.5% on the 10y

Anonymous said...

No more anonymous posts, goddammit.

TWSWB said...

You love it. Now pass the GREY POUPON.

Anonymous said...

I gotta roll out-

manny- good NYT article- here is the book that pretty much stated the whole live simply movement- check it out from your library-

Your money Or Your Life


from the author (who sadly died of cancer a few years back)-

"The foolish person wants more money, and more of the things money can buy," Dominguez says. "The wise person wants enough money, and more of the things money can't buy: health, happiness, love, and peace of mind."

karen said...

great quote, ahab.. and an excellent reminder.. thank you!

CV said...

@LB

Why not just short "silver" instead of gold... It seems to run a higher beta?

Not questioning, just asking (I haven't studied your premise)...

Mannwich said...

Nice, ahab. Perfectly stated. Harder to achieve in reality though, especially when you're going against the tide that is the mass stupidity and cravenness of our culture.

CV said...

@Manny

When are you coming back from SA?

I have to start planning a FF draft time...

Mannwich said...

@cv: I'll be back Sunday evening, 8/22. When do you want to do the draft?

I'm gone again from 9/7 - 9/17 but should be more plugged in during that time. In Omaha and Northern CO.

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Entirely too gloomy today. What is the trouble?! Maybe I can find a story to cheer us all up!

http://www.cnbc.com/id/38620283

"The mid-summer rally is over and stocks will begin a downward leg before bottoming in October, as the world economy is in what looks like a Great Depression, Robin Griffiths, a technical strategist at Cazenove Capital, told CNBC Monday.

"Equities are for losers and bond markets for winners. Equities are simply for people who like losing money," Griffiths said.

"A double-dip is inevitable and imminent, as Keynesian stimulus measures have never worked anywhere. We are in the equivalent of a Great Depression following 3 years of credit crisis," he added."

...Oops...now where did I put that White Out??

CV said...

At this point I'm probably shooting for Sunday August 29...

Mannwich said...

That should work, cv.

CV said...

@Bruce

"A double-dip is inevitable and imminent, as Keynesian stimulus measures have never worked anywhere"

---

Maybe what we need is some "KANYESIAN" stimulus...

http://twitter.com/kanyewest

Or "KENYASIAN" stimulus... I'm losing track...

Bruce in Tennessee said...

Back at noon...busy am.

karen said...

mrtopstep

$ES_F #futures 09:07:34 AM] it feels like the SPU is trying to hold 10:03:46 AM how many think we jam the buy stops above 1027.50 today?

Mannwich said...

Alaskan voter confronts Sarah Palin. Palin is high comedy without even knowing it.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/shannyn-moore/sarah-palins-homer-moment_b_675198.html

CV said...

It looks like today might be the end of the line for BIDU...

At least until the next "liquidity measure" by the PBoC...

karen said...

Aug. 9 (Bloomberg) -- American International Group Inc. said controls on Wall Street signed into law by President Barack Obama may force the insurer to raise capital, undergo stress tests and limit bets on private equity and hedge funds.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke told lawmakers last year that AIG operated like a hedge fund and that having to rescue the insurer made him “more angry” than any other bailout of the financial crisis.

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aVO0u2JiQA2M

CV said...

@karen (re: topstep)

Something tells me that THE SQUID is actually short right now and is content just holding steady through the FOMC meetings tomorrow and LB's beloved auctions later this week...

I wouldn't be surprised to see a marginally higher high today, but I doubt any major "melt-up" will occur if stops are blown...

Just "seems" that way to me...

karen said...

Minyanville just tweeted this link on Algorithmic Trades, Visualized

http://www.nanex.net/FlashCrash/CCircleDay.html

CV said...

Crop circles, bitchez! :-)

CV said...

@karen

You tell me...

All last year... and again, in the February-April campaign... Every time equities hit a membrane, it busted thru (to the upside) with EASE...

And many of those episodes were the market pushing to "post crash" highs (not just retrace levels)...

So... Doesn't this feel different?

I mean, it's AUGUST, it's MONDAY... It should be the easiest thing in the world to ram this market higher...

I mean, come on... you need one friggin S&P point to get to a new high since the 1010 lows...

6 days and were floating around at the same spot???

karen said...

i just found out about this site, fascinating: http://www.goldfellow.com/

karen said...

patience CV.. just wait till the close : )

CV said...

On track for the lowest volume day of the year thus far...

karen said...

BreakingNews

The House ethics committee formally charges California Democrat Maxine Waters with three counts of ethics wrongdoing http://bit.ly/9b6Myq

CV said...

I can see hanging around for FOMC tomorrow...

But heck... If we hang around here all day, then just get a tepid ramp at the end of the day to BARELY take out last weeks highs and close OFF of that...

I'm considering "shorting" the close...

CV said...

@karen

I'm more and more convinced that "silver coins" are what I want to own...

read my (3:13) above... Yes - CV was up in the middle of the night...

Leftback said...

LB is getting awfully close to unloading those longs we have been holding.

We are still in a mode of M-Tu up days and then with the auctions behind us they release negative news to get peep to buy the Ts from the B/Ds. I think this is the game for August.

One more BBQ at BRIAN's on Labor Day.

Leftback said...

Rangel. Waters. Dodd. Not to mention the Republicans..
ever get the feeling we have a house full of crooks?

CV said...

@LB

any thoughts on my (11:15)?

Richard Nixon said...

I'm not a crook

AmenRa said...

I hate pre FOMC days. Too much positioning going on.

CV said...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sh163n1lJ4M

CV said...

Wyclef Jean Owes $2.1 Million in Back Taxes, Says Report

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-504083_162-20012801-504083.html

DL said...

Nixon @ 12:29

Isn't this the anniversary of your resignation (8/9/74)...?

72bat said...

re mark hurd's resignation, the epicurean dealmaker waxes philosophical on the question Why is it that powerful men cannot seem to keep their d1cks in their pants?
except for tricky d1ck, i suppose; so far as we know, he found pat sufficient unto his needs.

CV said...

Which reminds me...

todays date...

eight/nine/ten

Leftback said...

Enjoy the MOMO.

CV, sorry. Silver is PART PM and PART INDUSTRIAL, like copper. GOLD is more like a CURRENCY, can be a HAVEN, like JPY. Plus, NIC does awesome gold charts, not silver.

CV said...

So if you believe in "TURNING POINTS"...

consider 7/8/09 (seven/eight/nine)

Cold Steel said...

You may be feeling me soon.

AmenRa said...

CV

and yet he is running for President in Haiti.

Mannwich said...

@cv: Seems as if he's perfect for the job. Worked for Timmy.

Leftback said...

The 2y and 3y are off the most today. They have to sell a truckload of 3y at 1pm tomorrow.

'Clef said...

Only the little people pay taxes.

CV said...

@72bat

law of averages...

Probably 90% of ALL men fall into same category...

It would be infinitely more difficult to expect that out of the remaining 10%, someone would rise to power (which may be 1 in 100, or 1 in 1000)...

So do the algebra...

Kissinger said...

72bat,

Power is the ultimate aphrodisiac.

Cold Steel said...

Are ya ready for me?
Lotta shorts with stops at 1130-1135.

ARE YA READY?

CV said...

Because I'm bored out of my mind and just looking at different things...

On 60 minute candles... This is DAY 13 of SPX being above its 200SMA... & DAY 21 of it "crossing" above the 200SMA (after 1010)...

Lord Blankfiend said...

Nic

We've already thought about the loophole before the ink is dry.

CV said...

@Nic

Congress could care less... They already "voted" for the bill...

As Nancy Pelosi would say...

"Now we get to see what's in it..."

I-Man said...

Long rainier cherries.

DL said...

"Now we get to see what's in it..."

They still haven't written the rules yet.

This could take a while.

Leftback said...

There's plenty of time for Lloyd to piss in it while it's brewing...

Nancy doesn't care about us, just wants to keep the rally going.
She owns AIG stock and CA real estate.

Long Georgia peaches.

Obama said...

Inside every Republican there's a George Bush waiting to get out.

CV said...

abandoned baby action on FXE

Abandoned Baby said...

Where's Karen?

Leftback said...

The best FX analyst out there, apart from Nic:

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/quick-fx-update

DL said...

CV,

Interests: “Things that don't cost the US taxpayer”;

Favorite Books: “The Rise & Fall of the Roman Empire”

. . . . . . . .

I’m detecting a subtle message there.

CV said...

@DL

CV doesn't "do" subtle messages...

CV said...

"Where's Karen"

Probably out trimming the hedges...

Which is what I should be doing...

Leftback said...

New Yorkers are Nucking Futs... PART 789....

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/10/nyregion/10appraisal.html?src=mv&ref=nyregion

CV said...

@LB

When are you going to blow that popsicle stand of an island and move your donkey out into the fresh air?

Leftback said...

Only when I can smell the acrid smoke of burning tires.

CV said...

@LB

jk - But it just seems insane to me that people maintain their interest in real estate there...

CV said...

Well the good thing about discarded tires is that if you collect 6 or 7 of them, I can show you how to grow potatoes & carrots in them & avoid STARVING...

karen said...

yup.. back.. everything is the same and i got something done : )

i think LB got upended by ZSL a few times if i remember correctly, laughing.

Donald Tramp said...

New York is the greatest city in the world.

CV said...

Today...

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ-SL is upending me...

CV said...

Hey... I'm happy if we breakout (upside here)...

Just get off this lily pad for crying out loud...

karen said...

that shoe thing is very common !!

Nic said...

At 6 min, 7 sec after 5 o'clock on Aug 9, 2010, it'll be 05:06:07 08/09/10. Won't happen again til 3010

Can you tell Im bored with this market

karen said...

i was behind a woman in the checkout line of local grocery and she was buying one of those dumb tabloid magazines.. it had to stifle myself from saying, "you know.. all that 'information' is available on the internet for free."

B22 said...

everyone has the same exact target on the EURUSD so bank on it not playing out that way....we can't all make 1.35 our call, as if the market is just going to agree with everyone and stop kindly on the 200 day.

now, as I sling my Louie V bag over my shoulder let me say


AS IF.

Nic said...

GOLD This trendline/rising channel is right there getting breached now. I want to make sure its not a fakey but it looks good short off the 50fib retracement of Jun high/July low.

karen said...

i do think this market day tops all the previous ones in terms of emptiness.. should make the low volume, end-of-day melt up easier than usual.. i'm not even sure why i feel the need to experience it.

Leftback said...

What shoe thing?

Thanks for the reminder about ZSL, Karen.

DL said...

Hmm... an empty market experience.

bob said...

LB,

As per shilling, pondering dipping my toe into long bond strips, any opinion?

Leftback said...

What if they postponed QE lite b/c Treasuries are already rich?

BUCKY would zoom, GOLDFINGER would poop his pants and yields would rise buy 10-15 bps... but I think we could all deal with that.

Funny thing is I have no idea what equities would do.

Leftback said...

Bob, LB is actually cautious in fixed income in general just at the moment. The time to get long the long end was last summer at a 4% 10y. (LB did).

No need to do anything. Just sit and watch the clown show, but be ready to buy weakness in Treasuries, especially sentiment weakness.

DL said...

Of course Greece will default. Does anyone believe otherwise?

bob said...

Thanks for the opinion. Just worked out the math and valuation models. I like the idea, and the prospects, even from this level, but like you I also think they could get cheaper.

karen said...

the shoe thing.. removing shoes or asking lookers to don booties over their shoes.. i've experienced it most in new construction. altho i know at least 3 people that ask guests to remove their shoes at their door.

CV said...

@LB

Equities would get torched by some hedge funds blowing up... :-)

Leftback said...

Ah, thought you meant a different shoe thing. Yes, shoe removal common in Asia. You have nice shoes, though, Karen, and the most lovely feet.

Funny comments at ZH. Anyone says anything good about BUCKY or bad about GOLDFINGER, then they get called a DOUCHE. Hilarious.

Taylor spot on about Greece, Spain, Euro and Bucky.

DL said...

With the exception of LTCM, it's the market that causes hedge funds to blow up, not the other way around.

bob said...

The removal of shoes is unamerican. It has always bothered me. It seems to be practiced by people who spent a "fortune" on flooring, only to not let people walk on them. I did not come off of the farm with my muddy wellies on.

Like buying a Ferrari and parking it in the garage.

CV said...

@karen

CV remembers his "teaching" days (in Japan) in the late 80's early 90's...

Where you had to remove your shoes upon entering the building...

OK... So I had to take off my cross training shoes... Walk 10 steps in my socks to the workout floor, and put them back on to teach my class... LOL

Leftback said...

Bob

Yields are going lower. But when everyone likes Treasuries LB gets nervous, smells like a short-term Top. Now, as you know, there's only one Top that LB really wants to get close to.

B22 said...

"Funny comments at ZH"

you mean funny like how when goldman makes a market call its wrong because it's goldman but when they call for QE2 this week it's right because its goldman....and it will make gold go "parabolic"

or do you mean funnly like a clown

I'm having a hard time telling the difference.

Leftback said...

Hedge funds are not as leveraged as they were in 2008.

Of course there will be a few that are designed to "auto-destruct" after enough capital has been accumulated. Paulson's funds come to mind, oddly enough. I think his canonization may have been early.

Leftback said...

I think funny like shallow and not very well thought out, and funny like wearing a clown hat and squeezing a little Harpo Marx horn thing.

Cute, but ultimately unprofitable.

DL said...

Yeah, could be that Paulson has become a little.... um... cocky.

Cold Steel said...

Don't look now, but I'm back.

Ritholtz said...

I'm still all in cash.

bob said...

LB, I finally am beginning to get FI, and get a handle on how huge and overruling it is. Different drummer. I was also buying T's last year and recently went neutral. Could have executed better, but a good trade no the less. Thanks for the lessons.

EUR and T's are now the only things on my radar. Still don't "get" the correlations of JPY movements. Trying to get a better handle on that next.

EUR behaving as it did on the way down to the bottom, lots of shorts piling in at the beginning of the week and then a short squeeze to end the week.

Lloyd said...

"opaque and unregulated" is what we do best.

karen said...

$indu back over 10,7.. all we need is one good day to see 11K again.. get your hat ready CV.

Leftback said...

JPY has been a puzzle. Read Nic for insights.

Japan has tried recently to repatriate Yen by limiting the extent of FX trading by Mrs Watanabe, a naughty scamp who gets up to mischief while Yasuo is at his office at Nomura in Tokyo.

JPY can't get too strong or all the exporters are screwed. But remember if China stops, and Aussie and Canada bubbles blow, carry trade reversal will send JPY and USD to the moon (as in 2008).

So many EURUSD 1,35 calls, like ben I wonder if we stop short. BTW I like Shilling's parity call on the EURUSD. Spain is a monster problem on the scale of California and Trichet may be forced to ease.

Leftback said...

K

11k would be a blow-off top, surely...

Leftback said...

STEEL, bitchez™.

That's what a ZH commenter would say if they enjoyed a squeeze.

Vampire Squid said...

Collecting me some buy stops and then I am going to tank and shaft them all.

Nic said...

The problem for bucky vs the yen and euro is real yields. There is no return on owning the dollar and the Fed is making it clear there is no prospect of any for some time.

Leftback said...

Massive blow-off ahead, Mr Market anticipating QE2?
We would be sellers of any screamer into the close....

DL said...

"There is no return on owning the dollar".

Is the return on JGB that much better?

Leftback said...

Nic

That's why I could see yields backing up a bit here.
Nobody expects it.

Nic said...

DL yes, 3month JPY libor pays more than 3month USD libor and has done so since March

karen said...

anyone note the low in $tnx today??

CV said...

@LB (2:49)

I wouldn't be surprised either...

But it wouldn't last long...

Nic said...

Yeah TNX 2.82 that wedge has broken down. Not good news for USDJPY

bob said...

Nic- But there is a real return for owning $ in europe. It smells like a smaller version of 2008, not enough dollars for euro banks who lent too many of them, and no political strength for the fed to throw them any more. Just thinking out loud.

It's the same reason you don't want any debt tied to LIBOR right now, IMHO.

Thanks as always for the comments.

Leftback said...

This rally is so thin it covers less than Karen's bikini...

B22 said...

I had bought the dip again this morning. selling again for a small profit.

rinse, lather, repeat

until I can count five down that is.....

CV said...

There are 3 "bearish divergent" peaks on the 60 min RSI for SPX...

It'll be unusual to see 4...

So that means either the market is going to give up, or REALLY make an aggressive move higher...

Leftback said...

TNX could be a head fake if the Fed doesn't follow through.

We have a small hedge here against our fixed income positions, but the days of our massive hedging trades are over, as any reversal higher of yields would be brief.

CV said...

Assuming we don't go rip roaring in the last hour... The DAILY RSI is going to be showing bearish divergence for the first time since we were at 1220...

Nic said...

B22 have you been drinking koolaid this summer?
LOl only kidding

Leftback said...

EUR-JPY 113.5700 0.0240 0.02

ES has diverged from carry trade again. Someone is wrong, and the convergence trade should be on soon.

attorney for Ben22 said...

My client denies buying the dips.

B22 said...

Nic,

I've been laying into the vodka lately, lol!

also, on the dollar, I gotta disagree a bit about the no return, realizing fully not everyone here works and lives in the states dealing with dollars like I do, but that said, my hoard of cash compared to two years ago buys me more:

1. gas
2. house
3. services
4. on and on

if I had earmarked the cash to buy vegas RRE, my return is perhaps north of 70% on the dollar. Buys me the same amount of stock it did a decade ago not to mention.

also, since my last post got eaten, just saying, I'm taking full credit when JP blows up, I was always skeptical of him and when it was revealed the squid provided him with a subprime lay-up I became even more skeptical.

karen said...

uh-oh:

AmericanBanking

Jim Cramer says Citigroup, Inc (NYSE: C) Stock Heading “Substantially Higher”: Mad Money host Jim Cramer said on t... http://bit.ly/9yqPv0

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