OK - So lets pause and reflect here for a second...
- On July 30-Aug 1st we had the "Cardinal Cross"
- On August 11th*/12th we have a confirmed "Hindenberg Omen" (more later)
- Today is Friday the 13th
Are we, like, seriously screwed or what?
First, the Hindenburg...(read up because even though I might be stupid, I'm not THAT stupid as to make comical annotations on harbingers of doom)... At least I give them a wide berth...
Date of first Hindenburg Omen Signal | # of Signals In Cluster | DJIA Subsequent % Decline | Time Until Decline Bottomed |
9/21/2005 | 5 | ? | ? |
4/13/2004 (1) | 5 | 5.4% | 30 days |
6/20/2002 | 5 | 15.8% | 30 days |
23.9% | 112 days | ||
6/20/2001 | 2 | 25.5% | 93 days |
3/12/2001 | 4 | 11.4% | 11 days |
9/15/2000 | 9 | 12.4% | 33 days |
7/26/2000 | 3 | 9.0% | 83 days |
1/24/2000 | 6 | 34.2% | 44 days |
6/15/1999 | 2 | 6.7% | 122 days |
12/22/1998 (2) | 2 | 0.2% | 1 day |
7/21/1998 (3) | 1 | 19.7% | 41 days |
12/11/1997 | 11 | 5.8% | 32 days |
6/12/1996 | 3 | 8.8% | 34 days |
10/09/1995 | 6 | 1.7% | 1 day |
9/19/1994 | 7 | 8.2% | 65 days |
1/25/1994 | 14 | 9.6% | 69 days |
11/03/1993 | 3 | 2.1% | 2 days |
12/02/1991 | 9 | 3.5% | 7 days |
6/27/1990 | 17 | 16.3% | 91 days |
11/01/1989 | 36 | 5.0% | 91 days |
10/11/1989 | 2 | 10.0% | 5 days |
9/14/1987 | 5 | 38.2% | 36 days |
7/14/1986 | 9 | 3.6% | 21 days |
Whether you're superstitious or not... Here's what ACTUALLY happens when you CROSS a CARDINAL
August 10, 2010 - Reds vs. Cardinals
As for Friday the 13th?
Look - Jason is handy with the POLEAXE too...
I don't know people, do what you want... Go long, Go short... Go TO SLEEP...
Better not heed that last advice...
OK... I'll cut the crap and get to the real anthology of drama...
Oh... Let's just get it all over with at once, shall we?
With a little music to go along with it...
Way to go Stevie... Way to scare the hell out of all the young SESAME STREET viewers - lol
353 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 353 of 353 Newer› Newest»Everyone will be writing about the rally in corporate bonds in two to three weeks. Trust me.
K, do you want to go ONE on ONE with me on bonds?
That's really my turf, you know, angel.
Brian is sweet : )
@I-Man
"squeezy in the heezy"
No... we won't get a REAL one of those until the August SPY 111 calls start pricing in at about a nickel...
The first punch has been thrown...
I wanna see a counter!
Nickels bitchez!... :-)
i am at the ready to buy tbt, buster! if i miss it, i'll find something else. anyway, i can read the treasuries charts better than you : P
oh so the Fed is trying to expand credit?
and this is news....why, exactly?
it has always been their primary function, since the start.
people have blown this way out of proportion it seems.
Weak jab from Karen...
Probably just glanced off the LB.
so, lb, are you saying JNK is going higher so that the yield on it becomes more in line with reality?
I'm skeptical that JNK can be such a win-win.
Ben, and we've got enuf credit/debt out there already !!! we need to let prices drop to reflect reality.. (sorry I keep using that word, but i am sick of this martix!)
"i am at the ready to buy tbt, buster!"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SDoVl-g4UMs&feature=related
---
If your ASS is a "buster" 213 will regulate...
karen is about to make some bodies turn cold :-)
from mish, gallup's self-reported u.s. consumer spending, lags 2009
lmfao :-)
You are a wonderful chart reader... I'll give you that.
Monday is going to see a significant move away from safe havens.
A rally in risk credit is telegraphed, big money is waiting to move.
This is part of the reason behind the latest FED move:
Mortgage Bonds Pare Losses
It has been a slow month for MBS, there was a buyer's strike and things became very slow, and you know how desperate the FED is to maintain liquidity in this market. Once it stalls, price tends to drop.
Karen,
well, exactly, we can all come up with all the theories we want about their big statement this week, it's just more credit expansion in the end though, details are fun to comb through but it's all the same strategy since the beginning, they just keep trying to go about it a different way as the old tools continue to fail. If I ran a fund at PIMCO I'd be a lot more worried about exactly what they said, from my seat though, the strategy that has been in place for my clients for years has changed exactly 0% as a result of these recent Fed statements.
"GM To File IPO Plans Early Next Week"
I thought I heard Phil LeBeau say that GM is going to go public in segments; so the "IPO" is just the first of many.
(Maybe I misunderstood).
This is a trade, it's not for life.
JNK hasn't left its trading channel. Remember in the huge fixed income markets, making 2-3% is big money. People bet the spread every day and make millions based on moves of a few bps, right, Jim Caron?
I SAID, RIGHT, JIM CARON...?
LB,
The junk chart looks almost identical to the DOW since April, which channel are you referring to?
The next stop is the EASTSIDE MOTEL
@LB
You saying buy bond funds? State bond funds also? Or did I misunderstand.
@I-Man
If you smoke like I smoke, then ur high like ever-y-day...
& if your ass is a buster 213 will regulate...
Nobody in their right minds would touch munis here, IMO.
Anyone else feeling a false breakdown < Rip to close the week?
McF, I am not in this for life.
JNK channel begins at the low May 20, 2010.
"it's going from the lower left to the upper right"...
Thanks, Denis.
@I-Man (2:03)
No... If anything... the opposite...
I'll bet you your Warren G cd that we close higher from here.
@I-Man
more this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wxarN-c-Z6U
Chaps and the delightful Ladies,
IN Japan, the following lost big:
1) EQUITY longs (down 80% from the peak)
2) HOMEOWNERS (down 60% from the peak)
Note that bondholders are missing from the list.
This is why I ridiculed the bond bears in January.
Apart from the fact they looked ridiculous in the CLOWN SUITS.
LB.. what isn't a safe haven these days.. i daresay the fed has made the safe houses (gold, for example) unsafe.. and the risky (unsecured debt) safe by implicit guarantees..
@I-Man (2:08)
A RED STRIPE has now been wagered folks! :-)
Thor, fictional superhero...
http://chud.com/articles/content_images/5/thor-movie.jpg
Please come to this blog and mediate this disagreement!
You're on, Survivor.
EURJPY holding above 110.
LB is a bit concerned that all of us (me included) expect a SECOND CRASH this winter, but there is a possibility that we MUDDLE THROUGH in a Ritholtz scenario, where we have ugly sideways action, with a P/E compression as the economy recovers with a spastic 1% growth rate.
If that happens, then DIVIS and HIGH YIELD would be the place to be (along with GREEN ACRES...), so LB has to consider that scenario.
But you know that regardless of the outcome, I-Man will be on the right side of the trend...
So its kinda like a win/win.
Kinda like JNK until tuesday AM.
Jesse's got a post on those FHA loans too.
LB,
I have a questiona about Japan, that real estate decline, was that pretty much across the whole country?
LB.. weird that you should say that because earlier I was making a post about how the market wouldn't (be let alone to) crash this year.. but I couldn't find the right words to make the case logically.. you did!
That's what we are paying you so well for, I guess ; )
@I-Man
CV "knows" better than to get on the other side of the trend than the I-Man...
That would encourage seriously bad karma MON...
If anyone came to this blog today AD HOC and read these comments, they'd be scratching their skulls...
There's like, 20 separate (stories within stories) going on at the same time...
LOL
"i daresay the fed has made the safe houses (gold, for example) unsafe.. and the risky (unsecured debt) safe by implicit guarantees.."
EXACTLY. As long as we remain THROUGH THE LOOKING GLASS in the world of BENNY in WONDERLAND, then anything can disappear down the rabbit hole, except the bond market.
Normal rules are suspended. This is why the conventional economists on and off the Street are completely lost. Most of these strategists can't think their way out of a paper bag.
Rosie, Mish know what's up, and even Krugman is beginning to see the light. If we're not turning Japanese, then my name isn't:
左へ
Life was easier when trends were trends...
And trades lasted longer than 5 minutes.
@LB
左へ
Is that "The Vapors" in Japanese?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gEmJ-VWPDM4
Japan RE declines most marked in Tokyo, especially CRE, which declined 80%. The fascinating thing is:
RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE IS STILL FALLING IN JAPAN.
Of course the demographics are horrible. All the stats on every crisis in history are in the Reinhart and Rogoff book BTW, highly recommended.
I liked Jesse's take, thanks Jennifer.
Years ago, a couple anyway, I used to say, what if they held a treasury auction and nobody came? The attempted resurrection of this bet will probably have the same outcome.. in other words.. if you do short via TBT or PST.. stay light on your feet.
"That's when a smoke was a smoke,
and grooving was grooving....."
What Would Haru, the Beverly Hills Ninja Do?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFZ07fb2j1A
@I-Man
This SURVIVOR has the "Eye of the Tiger"
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qjO1CXND4V8&feature=fvst
The real markets look solid while the DOW thingy is doing those up and down squiggles you all enjoy so much....
PIMCO El-Erian: While US deflation may still be the risk (not baseline) scenario, a rise in its probability can cause quite an impact on markets.
re the Hindenburg omen - “It’s an interesting name but what you really have as a technical background is a classic distribution phase in the market,” Riesner said. “It’s the classic tug of war between bulls and bears that you have there.” Michael Riesner/UBS
Nic just tweeted the article.. but i think i posted it earlier via a tweet, too.
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aHQKRDhjzkEs
"Residential real estate still falling in Japan".
. . . . . . .
And who's to say that residential and CRE won't fall in this country for several years to come, at the same time that crude oil moves higher?
K.,
Baked in the Treasury market here. This is the Q3 low yield for 10y Ts.
Here I go sticking my neck out with another BOTTOM™.
We will of course be back, probably in October or November.
speaking of distribution.. wonder who they are feeding all those jcg shares too.
same people buying up all the C.
tbt at 34.20.. here and now..
you don't think we can see 2.6 at least ???
本当に最後の20年間で日本の悪い経済政策があった私たちがいる。アメリカの場合、白人の少年は、おそらく同じ運命に苦しむ予定です。
34.18 now.. maybe i'll put a limit order out at 33.90.. laughing.. though i'm not sure that's the good bet yet..
sticking your neck into another bottom...
what?
Jim Cramer bearish on bonds, trying to back up D. kass 8/4 short call.
good luck on that tbt guys, I'm always afraid to trade with Krammmer, I'm just gonna watch how it goes for you.
i think THE OMEN/KRAKEN has frightened the bond market.
I am playing for MONDAY, angel. But thanks for that...
Besides, if yields plummet all my bonds will rally.
A falling tide lifts all bonds in this environment.
http://market-ticker.org/archives/2579-We-Got-A-Little-Problem-Here-Europe.html
I WANT TO SEE BELOW 1080 AGAIN!
Not holding any trades now, just wanna see it dump :)
Don't know much about candlesticking, what does the SPX weekly candle chart saying?
18
OMG.. and some of those C buyers are actually known to have brain cells.. shocking isn't it !!
34.13 on tbt! P&F has it at 25 I think LOL..
if i miss it i miss it and would get out in 5 min anyway.. won't be making the big bucks on it..
@DL
"And who's to say that residential and CRE won't fall in this country for several years to come, at the same time that crude oil moves higher?"
I'd caution folks to watch for that was well...
Naturally - I see CRUDE "much lower", before HIGHER...
But a decade away? Well... I'd be advising STOCKPILING gasoline in 55 gallon drums...
or better...
Convert your vehicles to PROPANE or CNG...
Electric?
BWAAAAHHHHHHH! :-)
OK... maybe for your golf carts...
@karen (2:47)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7SqC_m3yUDU
who knows how legit, but related to the 2:49:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/one-possible-explanation-plunging-euro-pension-accounting-change-impact-european-deficit-cal
might be an interesting weekend.
Thanks for the short version, CV!
In case anyone was curious for the translation: We have had a bad economic policy in Japan last 20 years really. In the United States, the white boy, will probably suffer the same fate.
At this stage the CAGE MATCH has progressed to K hitting LB over the head with her 5" heels... trust me, guys, this lady is tough.
sorry if someone else already linked this, I must have missed it:
http://yelnick.typepad.com/yelnick/2010/08/is-the-shanghai-market-predicting-a-reversal-in-commodities.html
I'm afraid for Monday : (
My plan.. if we sell off into the close.. take some money off the table.. if we rally, hold shorts and maybe buy GDX? expecially if it falls a bit more..
Something is fishy, tho..
Very fishy
it's the perch karen
@I-Man/karen
VERY...
This is like when we hit 1010...
The FUTURES hit 1002 overnight...
What a load of bull...
Bernocchio thinks he can override the Hindenburg OMEN...
Unbelievable amounts of bond bullishness out there, today. From people who wouldn't use Treasuries for personal hygiene last year.
...said the bond guy...
EURJPY holding 110. I really HATE it when you make me play bull. I mean LB looks ridiculous with these stupid HORNS on.
72bat - in case no one answered your question earlier - consumerindexes.com (consumer metrics institute). rick davis and his team do amazing research.
friz
It's going to end up happening like this...
Between now and Monday... SPY 111 August calls are going to hit 5 cents for, like, about a millisecond...
So be ready with your "market" BUY orders to pick that off...
LIMIT orders won't cut it... You'll het eaten by the CROP CIRCLES...
This is bullshit!
zerohedge - Bill Gross Sells roughly $26 billion of USTs in July
247WallSt - Next Week’s Must Watch Earnings (LOW, HD, WMT, TGT, SHLD, DLTR, HPQ, DELL) http://bit.ly/cBrO7j
Karen,
Does the HINDENBURG remind you of anything?
Like, for example, a cucumber..?
The world appears not to be ending in credit...
Next week...
How about THIS WEEK's SPX candle? - lol
"Bill Gross Sells roughly $26 billion of USTs in July"
Sold to you, JOHNNY....
65 ma on that weekly chart is 1067.51!!!
why can't we just go there and get it over with.. what is the market afraid of? that it won't hold??
MUST .. GET ... OFF... THE ... CANVAS...
LB's reputation is at stake here....
Fair & Balanced...
ST. PAUL, Minn. (AP) -- Protesters have been rallying outside Target Corp. or its stores almost daily since the retailer angered gay rights supporters and progressives by giving money to help a conservative Republican gubernatorial candidate in Minnesota. Liberal groups are pushing to make an example of the company, hoping its woes will deter other businesses from putting their corporate funds into elections.
A national gay rights group is negotiating with Target officials, demanding that the firm balance the scale by making comparable donations to benefit candidates it favors
alright, that's enough for me today. everyone have a good weekend.
@karen (3:17)
I kno, right?
@karen
I guess it's because the MARKET MAKERS have already left for the weekend and are doing blow with Ukranian hookers...
The JAYVEE is in charge...
Let's put BEN GAY in their jocks!
Ben, no way you're leaving.. : ) Margaritas at the close on me if you stay.
I'm still here, angel....
I'm here too. Watch out on Monday...
34.11 on TBT.. we'll either be thrilled we sat on our hands or cursing ourselves on Monday, laughing..
geeze.. maybe we should be buying some sso for protection!
look at sso on the weekly.. bounced off that 65 ma (34.99) yesterday.. not so spy.. not even near it.. needs 106..
Stallworth: ‘Be cognizant of your decisions’
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_ylt=AupmX8jEP8DFIRBMLXVqMso5nYcB?slug=lc-stallworthsecondchance081210
---
I gotta say... I used to think this guy was a TOTAL THUG... But I've since discovered him to be an ARTICULATE and THOUGHTFUL human being...
And it's NOT just because he signed with the RAVENS...
Further... OZZIE NEWSOME is one of the best football minds/character judges to ever grace the NFL...
I concede, CV.
alaidi - #forex in risk aversion mode favouring $USDX as $SPX struggles to hold above 55-day Aussie et al at new sessions lows $$
email chat with an acquaintance today.. hope he doesn't mind my posting his words! "There is a big nutty election coming up next weekend in Australia and the whole run-up has been a mess, with former leaders in the ring and no real clear indication of who will be running that government. It's a dead heat. Even though I am a die hard Democrat, if Labor gets the nod again....it could get ugly on the currency front. I also don't like being long Aussie dollars in the setting of US$ strength. Historically, they are fairly well inversely correlated and not sure there is much out there to break that relationship. Lastly, having spent time in Sydney this year asking a lot of folks who claimed they were "in the know" a lot of questions about bubbles and speculation and the possibility of "crashes" in Australia.....the answers I got 10:1 were in favor of "We will never have a crash like you folks in the States.....it's different here!" I like the other side of that complaceny bet."
@karen
I'll toast that margarita with you...
Maybe we don't CRASH...
But I'll be damned if I'll let this market get off the mat today...
It'll be a MORAL victory...
@I-Man
read the Donte Stallworth article...
It'll make you feel good...
He's my new FAVORITE GUY...
thank you for that link on Stallworth!
@karen
I'm telling you...
CV is pulling MORE for this guy (spiritually) than I've EVER pulled for anyone...
uh, karen, didn't see a plan for going sideways into the close..., maybe paint toenails yet another shade of fuchsia?
8^0
Hello!
Mordant Scamley's Head of F***ed Income, Jim Carrion here - with my comments on today's action in the Treasury market:
"this is really in-line with what our feeling was at the start of the year, but when we said, uh, 5.5%, we, uh, really meant 2.5% and there was a typo. As to the, uh, yield curve, we uh called for, uh, a steepener, which as you can see, with a decline from 298 bps to 215 bps, was, uh, actually in the neighborhood, uh, the yield curve didn't invert on us, which was good, and in a way, we were, uh, so accurate...."
jumped the gun on the marg.. 34.10 on tbt, i see..
brat, i mean, bat at 3:40, : P
mrtopstep
chatter imbal 1 bil. to sell side that is big imbal!
half a minute ago via web
Reply Retweet
mrtopstep
#futures $ES_F certainly not what we expected but in fact the spoos did trade up to 1083 - w/ yet again no follow thru
no matter now, believe you can put away the polish remover
now we may have to deal with TBT going extra low due to short covering !!
1086 has been held UNDER THE THUMB until SPX hits a technical low...
Problem is - as I said before - that'll probably be TAGGED in the AH...
No SOUP for home gamers...
---
It's all DELAYING tactics for OPEX next week...
Sleep well over the weekend, but might as well start planning SPY 111 calls by Monday after Johnny hour...
This market sucks!
x100000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
I am still lurking....
Of course... you should never actually BUY the SPY 111 August calls at 40 cents...
Why?
Because if you do, you'll be wiped out...
If you could get a NICKEL price on that, a QUICKDRAW could probably get a 2-3 bagger...
But PROFITS are reserved ONLY for the squid...
This market sucks!
i'm spooked. what is happening here.. some BS for you:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5M_Ttstbgs
I can't tell anybody how to MAKE any money...
But I can be HELPFUL if you're interested in knowing how not to LOSE IT!...
ben in absentia @ 3:03.. just for the halibut i put an order in for tbt.
@karen
Best use... EVER... of that song was here...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fFB5qIfWoJE
Ha!
End the day on the LOWS...
I'll take that as a moral victory... (not much else)...
darn.. it was just getting fun..
I'm going to go have one of those "margaritas" that karen was talking about before...
(when I say ONE OF THOSE - I mean "pitchers of")...
I'll be sure to eat a stash of cucumbers before I go to sleep...
have a good weekend all
seeing "inception" tonite or tomorrow, based on a certain blogger's (the kiddoh) recommendation
d*mn you, CV!
That was a lot of nonsense on low volume while traders sojourned in the Hamptons and snorted blow...
MONDAY is when we find out where we are really headed.
It was another great day for Mordant Scamley....
Karen, did you PLAICE the order for TurBoT?
Sometimes a dirigible is just a dirigible.
karen no doubt relied sole-ly on lb's good advice
Didn't get fillet, LB.. but by tonight is a sure bet.
karen -
are you bottom fishing perchance?
@karen
I can take it when the markets go UP or DOWN...
What I can't stand... HOWEVER... is when they are held in LIMBO (courtesy of the US taxpayer - in the hands of the "anointed")...
That's all...
LB does like to short the Friday safety trades....
Wish I COD be sure the bottom was in PLAICE, once the order was FILLE(TE)D. But wEEL see if we get a dead CATFISH bounce.
CV, per your 2:18, and that's the way I like it
All this fish talk
It looks like a chop suey night to me
it's no fluke, lads, karen's not one to flounder about in such troubled waters
FREEDOM!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vf7muYYQkJQ
Have a WHALE of an evening Karen
i'll have what she's having
Some of you guys should be comedians, not traders.
I'm laughing thru tears at the 4:24s..
most of my trades are tragi-comedy
another margarita, anyone?
You're doing it wrong!
http://www.xmfan.com/files/whale-tail-002-759902_595.jpg
oh my! the details in that foto.. a slice of americana.. a plymouth, puka shells, black baseball cap, cb radio, HS medallion and chain?, rosary beads? (not seeing a cross, however), wife beater, drunk girl, and levi's..
NEW THREAD UP
@karen
All's needed would be a McCAIN/PALIN bumper sticker...
and the image would have been complete...
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