TRADERS ANONYMOUS: Morning Audibles 8.12.10

Morning Audibles 8.12.10

Sorry... A few computer problems this AM (slow & agonizing) kind of like one of those highway projects...

SPX looks very weak this morning... Bounce day? Weekly candle starting to look FUGLY...

If it's simple MORALE problem, there's an easy way to fix that...

And when you're done (and after some 'round the horn hoops & a round of 18 holes at the country club)...

303 comments:

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McFearless said...: was anyone else thinking about the liquidity issue Nic mentioned last night when they got up this morning?

I was, that's the kind of stuff that does freak me out a little, or a lot.; August 12, 2010 at 2:52 PM
I-Man said...: Hey, Lucas Van Praag said it was ALL GOOD... so it must be.; August 12, 2010 at 2:52 PM
McFearless said...: C,

of course it had spinners, i wouldn't have expected anything less. Probably tv sets in the headrests as well, another total waste of money.; August 12, 2010 at 2:53 PM
karen said...: did i not say uso would break 34?! well i did and it did and since no one pays attention to me anyway reposting it won't matter.; August 12, 2010 at 2:54 PM
karen said...: i'm gonna have us all day trading CAGC soon.. : ); August 12, 2010 at 2:54 PM
karen said...: okay.. last hour melt up time.. with the only shorts in the market covering by the close.; August 12, 2010 at 2:55 PM
CV said...: @karen

It looks like that "Jenny HOAX" you posted yesterday has now gone viral...

CV has to say... Jenny is a "hottie"...; August 12, 2010 at 2:56 PM
I-Man said...: wtf was that? the air cav?

I must admit they got the I-Man on that one.

20 ticks in two candles will do that.; August 12, 2010 at 2:56 PM
Leftback said...: Karen angel,

You know we all adore you, and your trading skilz are mad.; August 12, 2010 at 2:56 PM
Leftback said...: Not seeing any buyers of Jah-T-Bills...
That means the liquidity issues is Jah-Rumor.; August 12, 2010 at 2:58 PM
McFearless said...: nice call karen!; August 12, 2010 at 2:58 PM
Leftback said...: My short-term top call for the TLT has been very unpopular.

Then again, the LB Bottom™ call didn't go over well either, and nor did my call to BUY THE LONG BOND in August 2009 and January 2010.

Things that make you go... Hmmm; August 12, 2010 at 3:00 PM
I-Man said...: K, I think your 2:55 is a better call...

We may have a 1min trend change here...; August 12, 2010 at 3:01 PM
arbitrage789 said...: Karen,

LB obviously wants something (LB @ 2:56).; August 12, 2010 at 3:02 PM
I-Man said...: Ever tried to run and jump on a moving train?; August 12, 2010 at 3:03 PM
Mr Market said...: I can barely see your Top from down here, Karen.
But your belly is delightfully flat and astonishingly firm...; August 12, 2010 at 3:07 PM
McFearless said...: I have done that I, I also threw a rock at a fast moving train once and it came right back at my face within a few inches...real smart kid.

I'm out of SDS, no momentum to add to and I don't like what I see, don't want to hold overnight, will try again tomorrow. About even on the trade.; August 12, 2010 at 3:07 PM
CV said...: SHEBOYGAN, Wisconsin (AP)—Tiger Woods is at 3 under after five holes and sharing the lead with Australian Stuart Appleby and American Charles Howell III at the U.S. PGA Championship on Thursday.; August 12, 2010 at 3:09 PM
McFearless said...: how fitting I just found this article:

http://finance.yahoo.com/career-work/article/110303/the-anti-it-handbag?mod=career-leadership

a steal at $1,045

wonder if any rich kids will use those to cover their textbooks?; August 12, 2010 at 3:10 PM
I-Man said...: I feel like thats all I do anymore...

Range trade, range trade...

Quick! Run! Jump on that moving train!; August 12, 2010 at 3:10 PM
McFearless said...: I started Tiger this week in FG. I figured he'd bounce back after last week.; August 12, 2010 at 3:10 PM
karen said...: I-Man.. a merry-go-round, yes.. similar..

Ben @ 3:07, i cannot stop laughing! out loud, too.. : ); August 12, 2010 at 3:10 PM
karen said...: and if we can't breach 1088??? repelled at the 50ema on the 10 min so far..; August 12, 2010 at 3:15 PM
Cold Steel said...: Be careful. I am lurking....; August 12, 2010 at 3:16 PM
karen said...: nntaleb - In south africa gave a lecture about ecosystems,robustnss, & elephants. Headlines: sell bonds. Journalists more idiots than my wildest thgts; August 12, 2010 at 3:16 PM
McFearless said...: Karen,

at my trade or my rock throwing, hahah.

that's a true story, I heard the thing whistling as it came back, didn't even realize what happened until it passed me.

if I can dig it up, and we get avatar's back, I've got a real gem of a picture to share from the time I was taking a whack at my bike tire with an aluminum baseball bat and it came back and hit me in the face and knocked me out cold. Fortunately mom and dad got a picture of that one.; August 12, 2010 at 3:18 PM
CV said...: @karen (3:15)

"and if we can't breach 1088???"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZrjSqK7xPLE

(29 seconds in); August 12, 2010 at 3:19 PM
McFearless said...: I suppose one could make the argument we are in a wave iv here after touching the 1085 so many times, triangle action, these seem to be resolving fairly quickly of late.; August 12, 2010 at 3:22 PM
karen said...: Ben, I'm beginning to get punch drunk.. your parents sound fun!; August 12, 2010 at 3:27 PM
Leftback said...: Anyone seen THE KRAKEN?; August 12, 2010 at 3:28 PM
karen said...: i got whipped badly by my apron strings yesterday shaking it out from the washing machine.. didn't knock me out tho.. LOL; August 12, 2010 at 3:29 PM
Leftback said...: EURUSD up next week, gold down?

Gold as fear trade off, risk-on, sell gold, buy crude?
Technicals also say sell the yellow metal soon?; August 12, 2010 at 3:31 PM
Paris Hilton said...: Karen

That's hot.; August 12, 2010 at 3:31 PM
karen said...: doom, CV?; August 12, 2010 at 3:32 PM
AmenRa said...: Protect the gap bears!!! Don't give the bulls the satisfaction!!! :-); August 12, 2010 at 3:34 PM
McFearless said...: oh I've got all kinds of hilarious stories of different ways i've hurt myself over the years.

I've had several hundred stitches over the years, literally. 200 alone with my arm surgery.

I've gone into everything head first since birth!; August 12, 2010 at 3:34 PM
McFearless said...: 1092 close?; August 12, 2010 at 3:34 PM
karen said...: nope on the euro.. i see the reversal at hand on the chart.. H&S.. said so yesterday : )

gold is doing its own thing now.. 119 on GLD will be the buy signal I think.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/08/european-bond-spreads-starting-to-rise.html; August 12, 2010 at 3:36 PM
McFearless said...: while the dollar may pull back, from a sentiment perspective I have doubts about how big any pullback will be so want to plan on how I add the rest of what I want in there if we dont' get a good dip, sentiment at the recent lows was almost as bad as what we had last fall, only 6% bulls on DSI for the dollar at the recent lows, down from 98% bulls at the $88 and change high.; August 12, 2010 at 3:37 PM
karen said...: ha! $xad did exactly as the $spx so far.. got stopped at the 50 ema on the 10 min chart. funny, that correlation..; August 12, 2010 at 3:38 PM
I-Man said...: I cant believe I batted over .500 in this mess today...

I cant wait for a moderate, trending tape...; August 12, 2010 at 3:41 PM
CV said...: @karen

not MEGADOOM...

I see this as McF (3:22)... wave 4...

We'll see something like a SPY 106 conclusion to this by tomorrow and it'll be all said and done with...; August 12, 2010 at 3:41 PM
karen said...: cpi, retail sales, and consumer sentiment tomorrow..; August 12, 2010 at 3:42 PM
Leftback said...: I think we will go back down and re-test the DXY 79-80 area and have a lot of chop as we do so.

The next rally in the DXY after that will be an absolute screamer, whatever the catalyst. We are all assuming that carry unwind and risk aversion is imminent, but that may not actually be the case.

LB has one eye on the September jobs report, as by now everyone has priced in a really terrible employment picture going forward. Any strength at all there in that report and a lot of people will be caught offsides in Treasuries and gold. Just seeing both sides...; August 12, 2010 at 3:43 PM
McFearless said...: Submitted by Tyler Durden on 08/11/2010 14:18 -0500

European Central Bank
Lucas Van Praag

We received an interesting letter from a reader...

Our Fund tried to do wires out of our GS Prime accounts yesterday. For the first time ever, I got a call asking if “we really needed to wire the money out” and actually had them try to negotiate us out of it. I didn’t think anything of it beyond that.

The thing is, a buddy of mine just told me off-hand that they tried to wire money out of their fund’s GS Prime account too, and they had the same weird attempt to stop the wires…!

Either a) there is a major cash crunch going on (explains DXY up and ECB lending dollars maybe??), b) GS knew market would sell off today and were trying to prevent client margin calls, c) all of the above.
We have sent an inquiry to Lucas van Praag to confirm that all is well with Goldman Prime from a liquidity standpoint. In the meantime, we solicit the response of our readers to indicate if anyone may have experienced comparable "complications" upon redemption events either with Goldman, or other Prime Brokers.
Update: Goldman responds:

Hi Tyler:

We have no idea what this rumor could be about. There are absolutely no issues relating our prime brokerage business, and never have been.

Best / Lucas
So all is good.; August 12, 2010 at 3:45 PM
Leftback said...: Retail sales, cpi may be up, just because of $gaso being up last month.
Tomorrow being Friday, we can't see the market moving much.; August 12, 2010 at 3:46 PM
karen said...: Market Still Following 1937 Pattern; August 12, 2010 at 3:49 PM
karen said...: mrtopstep

chatter of decent imbalance on cash close
1 minute ago via TweetDeck; August 12, 2010 at 3:50 PM
CV said...: @karen

If anything - the cash is RICH vs. futures at the moment; August 12, 2010 at 3:53 PM
karen said...: CV, i don't know what that "imbalance on cash close" means, at all.; August 12, 2010 at 3:54 PM
karen said...: ben, our man again with USD chart : )

http://gicharts.blogspot.com/2010/08/us-dollar-index-chart-updated.html; August 12, 2010 at 3:55 PM
CV said...: &... if anything...

I still see some potential weakness for crude and financials into the open tomorrow morning...

That can't help...

One lower low... that's all I ask...; August 12, 2010 at 3:55 PM
karen said...: mrtopstep

14:47:13 Imbalance 400 m to bu; August 12, 2010 at 3:56 PM
karen said...: that bu means buy, sorry.. haste makes waste.; August 12, 2010 at 3:56 PM
CV said...: @karen (3:54)

They're talking about how the quants are programmed to arb the differential between CASH & FUTURES; August 12, 2010 at 3:57 PM
karen said...: mrtopstep - yes total cut to under 300M; August 12, 2010 at 3:57 PM
arbitrage789 said...: K @ 3:49

He says: (a) bounce in Sept/Oct and (b) sharp drop in Nov/Dec

I'm more inclined to say that it'll be the other way around.; August 12, 2010 at 3:58 PM
Leftback said...: Karen

LB likes the 1937 comparison. The drop comes later than many people expect, end of year tax selling and disappointing Q3 earnings season means late October-November-December.

The winter will be miserable for equities as deflation bites once more.; August 12, 2010 at 3:58 PM
karen said...: DL.. i'm more inclined to say that i'll agree with you : ); August 12, 2010 at 3:59 PM
karen said...: those are good points, too, LB!; August 12, 2010 at 4:00 PM
I-Man said...: Alright, time for I-Man to head to study hall, now that the bell has rung.

See yall later.; August 12, 2010 at 4:02 PM
karen said...: fun candle comparison between spx and spy.. neither means we won'd see more follow thru selling in the morning, however.; August 12, 2010 at 4:02 PM
CV said...: @karen

Wasn't Yelnick just making a case for 1250 by March a few days ago?; August 12, 2010 at 4:02 PM
CV said...: 3P&aDH?; August 12, 2010 at 4:02 PM
karen said...: CV @ 4:02, wasn't I? laughing; August 12, 2010 at 4:03 PM
karen said...: I!! I wanted you to stay and have a margarita with me.; August 12, 2010 at 4:04 PM
CV said...: @karen

Just saying...; August 12, 2010 at 4:04 PM
CV said...: @karen

I'd stay and have a margarita with you... Only problem is... I'm out of:

- tequila
- lime juice
- triple sec
- mix

otherwise, I'm fine... :-); August 12, 2010 at 4:06 PM
I-Man said...: Oh I would Karen, but I have Gann to read... then I gotta try and rig up my irrigation system so I can have a stress free vacation in two weeks.

But have one for me!

Reposado, splash of soda, just a bit of mix, and lite salt.; August 12, 2010 at 4:06 PM
CV said...: we're going lower tomorrow...

But you'll probably have to cover in the first 5 minutes...; August 12, 2010 at 4:08 PM
CV said...: @I-Man

My irrigation system is already rigged...

just like these markets...; August 12, 2010 at 4:09 PM
karen said...: dourness: Nouriel

The rise in unemployment claims today is consistent, if continued, with millions of further jobs losses per year. Job market fugly & fuglier; August 12, 2010 at 4:13 PM
McFearless said...: video:

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/62152902/; August 12, 2010 at 4:16 PM
CV said...: @karen re: Nouriel

I've heard that there is deep saturation in the flip flopper market...; August 12, 2010 at 4:16 PM
karen said...: i use frozen limeade.. no triple sec.. for my blended margaritas : )

1/2 can (scooped vertically) ice, six oz water, 8 oz anejo; August 12, 2010 at 4:17 PM
Leftback said...: Karen,

After this week, LB can only assume that you are now RICH as well as BEAUTIFUL. Enjoy the beach, angel.; August 12, 2010 at 4:17 PM
karen said...: gotta get some yard clean up done so i'll put the marg on hold for a bit.. also waiting on the sun to come out. later and thanks everyone!; August 12, 2010 at 4:18 PM
Leftback said...: Who do you guys follow on the bond market?

TALEB?
FABER?
ROBERTSON?
LEFTBACK?
CRESCENZI?; August 12, 2010 at 4:18 PM
karen said...: you left of HENDRY, i think.; August 12, 2010 at 4:23 PM
CV said...: LB gets my vote...; August 12, 2010 at 4:26 PM
I-Man said...: I follow Bill Gross, I mean, who else is there???

I've never heard of any of those other lame-o's...; August 12, 2010 at 4:26 PM
CV said...: hendry gets my CDS vote; August 12, 2010 at 4:26 PM
McFearless said...: there are some calling 1250 based on an inverse H&S and for many reasons, it's a terrible example of an H&S.; August 12, 2010 at 4:26 PM
McFearless said...: how about Gary Shilling?; August 12, 2010 at 4:27 PM
McFearless said...: I'm going to take the other side and say I find the 1937 comparison unsatisfying on a number of levels.

If you are a fib believer the comparisons to 1929-1933 from a charting perspective are undeniable in form, price, and time.; August 12, 2010 at 4:29 PM
McFearless said...: Why would anyone want to follow Taleb on bonds?

His deal for the last three years has been the "must have trade" being short treasuries. A huge money loser, just like his fund. His arrogance knowns no bounds.

Hugh Hendry squashed him in Russia earlier this year on this topic.; August 12, 2010 at 4:30 PM
Leftback said...: How do you know LB is not Gary Shilling?

Both handsome deflationists -
and never seen together at the same time.

Yes, Hendry is entertaining and smart.; August 12, 2010 at 4:41 PM
McFearless said...: Here is the video:

Taleb with some real traders:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n8crFWYHlWw; August 12, 2010 at 4:47 PM
McFearless said...: also, anyone that has ever dabbled in OTM options realized that you can in fact make the right call and still lose money!

i would never make a big risk bet on OTM options, not my cup of tea.; August 12, 2010 at 4:49 PM
Leftback said...: Gold more or less at a 50% retrace from the recent low, a 61.8% retrace toward the high would be $1223 or so, not far above here.

Might be a good area to initiate shorts, and we have. You know that there is a massive CLAVADISTA out there somewhere - especially later on when liquidity gets tight and nobody cares whether there is ever going to be inflation ever again.; August 12, 2010 at 5:01 PM
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Morning Audibles 8.12.10

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