Morning Audibles 8.11.10

As CV mentioned in the comment thread last evening here on PERCH HATERS ANONOYMOUS TRADERS ANONYMOUS SURVIVOR CAPITAL...



CV said...

Speaking of zombies...

The Nikkei is getting POLEAXED...

Just what is a POLEAXE? I'm "axekin' y'all... Here, I found one...



This is how it looks like in FUTURES...


I think the PORK BELLIES are up because their entrails are being removed...

There are other useful things for POLEAXES (and "poles" for that matter - and sometimes they even go hand in hand)... To wit:


So that's your lesson for the day...

"Learn it... Know it... Live it..."

324 comments:

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karen said...

read this!

http://fridayinvegas.blogspot.com/2010/08/oh-how-outlook-changes.html

Leftback said...

Interest-free loans from HUD the latest wrinkle in Government assistance to Homeowers.... dearie me !!

Interest-Free HUD Loans

You can be sure this program will not be "gamed" by fraudsters....

Leftback said...

Karen,

CMBS blow up. SRS baby....!

Just kidding.
SRS (aka "The Widowmaker..") is a Vampire.

karen said...

i have drv.. the worst.. still underwater (well, not all my shares.) but i went thru this with SRS and made money in the end..

Leftback said...

CV,

COLD STEEL works slowly, insidiously, grinding the shorts.
The POLEAXE comes down quickly, in the middle of the night....

karen said...

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2010/08/11/valuing-apple-at-400-per-share/

CV said...

@karen

That must be it's INTRINSIC value...

CV said...

and... might I add...

SOLD TO YOU - cnn

CV said...

@LB

auctions?

I-Man said...

What? Are we going for the quadruple bottom?

Yeah... Bid that.

Always works...

;)

Leftback said...

I did it already back in the thread, LB strikes quickly.

2.73% at a 3.04 BTC.
Decent demand. 57% indirects. 30y auction tomorrow.

We* continue to sell Treasuries.

*Just for DL.

CV said...

$RUT has now outdone the Nikkei

down 3.88% vs. 3.53%

CV said...

@LB

Thanks... sorry - missed that

CV said...

1094 was the low on the daily candle the day after the flash crash...

Every time the market has closed UNDER that level, the eventual floor was fairly significant...

CV said...

I should say, significantly DOWN from 1094

CV said...

1040 (twice) and 1010...

Leftback said...

Karen must be loving this.

karen said...

did someone call me?

karen said...

zerohedge - gold is patiently awaiting the much discussed "liquidation" plunge

I-Man said...

Surfs up brah...

Leftback said...

No PPT?

KATHERINE...!

karen said...

that flash crash was the best canary ever! and they kept trying to explain it away as an extraordinary aberration.. no worries!

I-Man said...

These are just ripples... big set coming in.

CV said...

I could see a move back to 1104 happening somewhere between now and tomorrow morning...

I think TOP STEP had that on their radar as well...

karen said...

zerohedge

Fed to purchase 30 Years as well. good timing ahead of 30 Year auction tomorrow

CV said...

But if it doesn't... OR, if 1104 cant be broken...

There's a good chance of a pretty large drop...

CV said...

Seems to me McHappy had 1095 on his radar screen too...

Leftback said...

Thanks, FED.

AmenRa said...

The final twenty minutes should be fun...

Leftback said...

It's been a "KRAKEN" day for the shorts....

Anonymous said...

Daneric posted last nite that he thinks that US Treasuries will go down hard as well in a P3 scenario, sending yields way up from here, in contrast to the Japanese experience. Anyone here have an opinion on that? Thanks.

I-Man said...

Dont be the first mouse...

Leftback said...

Anon

Two chances of a US bond implosion. Slim and None.
We are in ZIRP, how can we not repeat the Japanese experience?

Now, in the near term, are Treasuries rich? You bet.
We'll see a move out along the risk curve this week or next.
Remember the role of Treasuries in the bond market is as lowest risk.

CV said...

@LB

what would you think as an outer "correction" on the 10yy?

3 handle?...

I know it's hard to say at this point, but what's your gut?

Leftback said...

EUR off 3c, BETTY off 2c. What a day...

Leftback said...

Maybe 2.90%.... for a first wave correction, and a slow grind at that.

Nothing wrong with a slow grind from time to time, Karen.

CV said...

@Leo (at Zero Hedge)

Chinese Solars?

SOLF

Brian: "You'd miss all the fun"
Leo: "Huh"?
Brain: "The FUN"

karen said...

mrtopstep

bak now..not much change but certainly still not bouncin yet - not good nxt sml trdn rnge=earlier noted 1084.70-1094 sidewy = consoldte/ok

I-Man said...

Crisis averted...

karen said...

zh could get in trouble for stuff like this: Is There A Liquidity Problem At Goldman Prime?

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/there-liquidity-problem-goldman-prime

karen said...

I.. maybe bte jobless claims were just leaked : )

I-Man said...

I guess Charlie dont surf...

CV said...

@LB

Now we're talking 2.9 as a "ceiling"... LOL

I-Man said...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aLEjr4eg8rA

karen said...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/todays-market-action-predicted-jim-cramer

i pointed out the intc chart yesterday.. : )

mcHAPPY said...

The inability to get through July 30 lows has me concerned about another push higher.

A failure to close below 1095.17 will also have me concerned about a push higher.

If both those go, bring on a test of 1056.88 but much more probable would be a closing of the gap from July 21-22.

CV said...

@I-Man

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sOOE9JZj878&feature=related

Leftback said...

Credit guys have been buying risk quietly... just sayin..'

CV we both watch too many commercials. LB HEARTS the BRIAN character in the Scottrade commercials. But where's TAWNY?

10y might go out to 3.25% but not all in one shot. So much buying pressure after Fed announcement. But this here is toppy. Very toppy.

We been snackin on a bit of JNK, sellin' more Ts. We also think that a punter or two might be looking at Japan from the long side.

karen said...

the near 1088.62 tap and bounce off the 50 day ma today, 1088.01, may be perceived as bullish : )

karen said...

as much as i hate to admit it.. spyspx trend turned up 2 and a half weeks ago..

Leftback said...

Karen,

Are you taking pity on LB? LOL.

karen said...

$wlsh and $rut a bit more bearish.. reversal on P&F charts today to bearish objectives... i think i'll stick with that theme : )

bob said...

Eur bouncing off the 23.6 from the high of 2008 to the low of 2010.

Leftback said...

VIX has been declining since 11.30... no buying of T bills.
If this is Armageddon it is a well kept secret.

karen said...

ben! should we have bot exas today?? LOL

Leftback said...

Nice catch, bob. Those long term supports are big in FX.

bob said...

20 week MA also just below the 23.6.

karen said...

$vix is dumb, lb.. blind as a bat, deaf, too. : )

CV said...

Break below 50SMA...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RD1KqbDdmuE&feature=related

karen said...

fxe or $xeu.. going south now.. i know this.. perfection h&s that only i can see and have been posting about.. started at the end of 08.

I-Man said...

Oh here comes that last wave... too bad I'm watching from the beach...

(New guys like I get cut off early... ho hum.)

Leftback said...

K.,

$vix or LB?

karen said...

$vix.. you supposedly know everything, laughing.. and have blue eyes, right? can't be deaf cuz we know you can sing, too.

karen said...

mrtopstep

we always watch $GS they got OUR $$$ & some of their own!!!!
half a minute ago via web
Reply Retweet

mrtopstep
SPU GS showed 1086 bid 600 shaved 200 U/A so far
1 minute ago via web

bob said...

I closed my short on EUR, could see a short term bounce back to 1.3150. 1.3150 is the area of the 38.2 from the high of 2009 to the low of 2010.

I-Man said...

Babylonian thieves dont like to play by the same rules as I-veryone else.

I-Man said...

LOL Topstep!!!

He saw it too, I take it.

CV said...

What a day...

Thank you all, once again, for playing... HAND YOUR MONEY TO THE SQUID...

Now - go earn some more and come back tomorrow...

I-Man said...

But that type of shit is exactly why I always talk about how GS sucks at trading.

They suck, because they think they dont have to play by the same rules.

If they were really a bunch of allstar traders, they wouldnt have to cheat.

Douche bags, the lot of them.

I-Man would out trade them all, with a fucking phone, and yesterdays paper.

karen said...

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a6cHGQo6MRgI

The Federal Reserve’s decision to sustain the current level of its assets intensifies the focus of the central bank on policy tools similar to those used with little impact by Japan last decade.

karen said...

RobotTrader!!! (we are supposed to read the comments..)

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/amandas-cleavage-and-fomc-statement-incites-meltup-everything

mcHAPPY said...

The close makes things a little clearer for me. Glad to see 1095 broke on a close. If we could just break 1088.01 and a close below 1083 that would also make things a little more clear - or at the very least remove options.

A big UP tomorrow?

Leftback said...

LB is happy that he played small from I-long side today.

Still holding a short of the long bond for the time being. Selling 30y bonds steadily this week and picking up bits and pieces of higher yield.

We will all be watching the Asian markets with more interest than usual tonight. LB can't wait to spend quality time with Susan Li tonight.

mcHAPPY said...

Bucky certainly had a strong day. I didn't read all the comments as I've been spending most of my time with family last couple of weeks but I think Ben went long as did AT. Nice.

Leftback said...

Thanks Karen..

Glad that you had a good day, angel.

Leftback said...

Mandy's cleavage has nothing on the KT.

I-Man said...

OH MANDY...

I-Man said...

Thats a tradeable "V"...

karen said...

laughing, that's what they call me when they don't call me honey, or babe, or baby, or passion flower, or sweetheart, or lover, or sunshine, or gorgeous, or sexy, or beauty, or..

karen said...

i knew my father was in a good mood if I asked him a question, "Daddy, ...? and he'd answer first with, "That's what they call me when they don't call me honey." I can still hear his voice.. funny.

Leftback said...

Goodnight, angel.

karen said...

mrtopstep

at this point = not sure the bears are done - other side of world not going to like our tape!!! GS cxl order but FLEX'D for us commoners...

Mel said...

@ Karen (3:34)

This was a couple of tears ago...I mean years ago, but I've been asked the same question doing nothing more than wiring out 150k from a CIBC trading account (crummy platform staffed by monkeys)...which is the reason I gave when asked.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UgyZCgw6kdw

karen said...

LB.. time for a margarita and the beach.. i cut up a seedless watermelon, squeezed lots of lime on it, and have it chilling in the refrigerator.. bad news is there is zero surf but the water is okay at 68 and very clear.

karen said...

hey, hey! The Monkeys! I used to watch that sitcom and had a Monkeys lunch box.. white gogo boots, too.. too funny.

karen said...

Homeownership.. think twice before you leap. Yesterday I wrote a check for over $600 to repair my refrigerator (I won't mention the make, rolling my eyes), and today my tree work will be over $2k..

Leftback said...

The Monkees, angel.

White go-go boots is one of those looks that never goes out of style.
I bet they are wearing that on the streets of Paris even now.

karen said...

it was just a little mistake, LB.. but thank you for bringing it to my attention.

Leftback said...

K.,

I would work on your limbs for free...
do you have a place to store the lumber?

karen said...

i can't keep eucalyptus wood here.. tried that before.. beetles attack it instantly and turn it to sawdust.. you can hear the munching from a few feet away!

B22 said...

I'm back!

Anything happen today? Any announcement from the Fed to "move markets"...just figured I'd asked,

regarding Daneric's call on bonds, it's the same call as Prechter, which is what you get with Dan. bonds will peak out at a different time though imo, think about the current social mood towards bonds as well as the fact that you've been told for a decade not to be in bonds yet the continue to clean stocks clock, everything has been a process, stocks, commodities, international markets, etc. All have their own waves. Bonds are in a huge bubble no doubt, but there's that whole thing about how long bubbles last....

karen said...

missed you, ben..

B22 said...

oh I have w/drawal when I'm not around Karen

The small cap short was G$$$ today.

I like this idea a lot over the next 12 months.

karen said...

i don't think this miracle will last:

http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/macys-second-quarter-earnings-earnings-estimates/8/11/2010/id/29565

B22 said...

macy's, now there is one I was very wrong about, they seemed to have held up better than most though this.

Nic said...

I have been hearing whispers about liquidity issues for a couple of weeks now. In a European fixed income chat room I usually hang out in when you are all asleep and some chatter from tape watchers on twitter. Not sure its a GS problem tho, there is never just one cockroach, no one has been able to quite put their finger on the source of the problem

I-Man said...

Its weird tho... if it were a big deal, we'd see it show up in bills, no?

Leftback said...

Liquidity issues in Europe are usually expressed as a dollar shortage. So any further sign of a major squeeze of dollar shorts would be a concern. LB assumes that today's bump was temporary and that we drift down to retest DXY 79-80 area next.

B22, NICE TRADE in small caps.

Nic said...

I am never giving up coffee cold-turkey style again.
First day and I got a headache that would fell an elephant.

Leftback said...

I-Man,

Bills are my favorite indicator of panic. If I see a 3-month bill at 7bps or less I am going to be in ultra-defensive mode. Until then I will take a few shots each way. Another panic button indicator would be to see large scale selling of gold and TIPS together, people would only do that for one reason. Margin calls.

Nic said...

A great read from the Guardian re turning Japanese. (A great read now I can focus again)
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2010/aug/11/paul-krugman-japan-lost-decade?CMP=twt_gu

I-Man said...

OH Nic there is nothing worse than a caffeine headache...

Brutal.

I get one if I dont have a cup by 9am.

I know I need to stop... but just cant quit it.

Nic said...

From DavidPierre / ZH comments section:

The problem is more diverse than just a JPMorgan bond fraud issue. Sure, the venerable colossus and syndicate titan sold more than $2 trillion in USTreasurys than were issued in the 1990 decade. Records used to be found in the penthouse business offices at Cantor Fitzgerald in South Manhattan { WTC }. A database migration to New Jersey surely involve a great deal of deletions { POST 9/11 }. The problem goes far beyond the giant bank, which gobbled numerous other banks in the course of its cancerous reign, to become an appendage of the USGovt today.

Their insolvency is easy to prove, but obscured by altered accounting rules put in place on April 1st 2009.

They include generous rules that permit a dead entity to declare itself alive by filing a false accounting report, valuing their own assets at whatever suits their needs. Generally, insolvency plus illiquidity will force bankruptcy.

But Wall Street and the Big US Banks use naked shorting of USGovt-backed bonds to produce urgently needed liquidity.

All the extreme efforts to revive the US banks are futile. Imagine numerous transfusions of a dead man in the Emergency Room of a hospital, as more blood does not guarantee a resuscitation. More wires and tubes don't mean squat, since the guy has croaked and his corpse is rotting with a stench spreading into the corridors. The dirty secret, protected from the US public, is that the man died. So Wall Street and the Big US Banks are dead. By withholding the reality, a storm of funding programs has been approved by the USGovt, mostly directed at Wall Street and the Big US Banks.

Many new profit or basic elite welfare programs are channeled into executive bonuses and excess cash reserves held at the US Federal Reserve, which is also insolvent, yet another major iconic zombie.

The answers are easy. The implications are great. The impunity is disturbing. The signs of systemic breakdown are diverse. The road to perdition is clear. The path to a USTreasury default is far more obvious with each passing month. The denial is thick. The mortgage bond fraud, whose climax failure in 2008 was quite visible, went unprosecuted. So Wall Street and the Big US Banks are dead.

(more)

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldenJackass/1281556800.php

bob said...

Tried the same thing with coffee once. I felt like taking on an elephant.

I use one of those 3 cup stove top espresso rigs that allows me not to have a giant pot of coffee around all day. I was once good for 10-12 cups a day. Now down to 2 small espressos a day, with lots of milk. I have to call it a latte, but it just may be. My starbucks language skills are bad.

Nic said...

These charts are getting fugly. NY is closed, only Sydney is open and its another 2:45 til Japan opens. This is normally the dead zone.

Leftback said...

The Bond Report 8.11.10

What a day... action in credit markets was more sedate than in the equity arena, but there was still whackage in high yield and an orgy of buying in Treasuries. Towards the end of the day there was a move out of IG and into HY. The 5y TIPS yield reached zero and the 10y UST reached 2.68% at the close. Remarkable stuff, considering the DEATH of TREASURIES was foretold this time last year.

Corpies: LQD 0.00%; AGG 0.09%; JNK -0.97%; HYG -1.30%;
Govies: TLT 1.34%; IEI 0.20%; TIP 0.00%

Readers of LB will not be surprised to learn that he thinks this is all a bit overdone and he wouldn't put any of Granny's money into TIPS or Treasuries just now, after all the short covering this week, who could possibly be left to buy?

Cash is fine, there will be other opportunities, and just for a trade we fancy a cheeky entry into higher yielding bonds. We have been selling long bonds every day this week and will continue to sell strength. We have no TIPS and expect a sell-off at some point. We own large amounts of AGG, some JNK, LQD and a tiny bit of TLT (or their equivalents).

karen said...

Nic, quitting isn't what it's cracked up to be.. just reduce your consumption!

B22 said...

I've only drank a few cups of coffee in my life, never liked the stuff. Rather have some tea.

liquidity discussion is interesting and also not shocking at all if true

Nic said...

Thanks Karen, I only have two cups. It was so bad I considered going to emergency thinking I had a brain tumour or something.
I am going to go to half and half with decaf.

karen said...

we know all about the death of treasuries.. but sorry.. 2.5% is looking like the good bet here.. i rather hope it turns before a 2.0_ gets tapped.. scary stuff.

karen said...

i had a decaf once when i had quit coffee and could really "feel" it !! that is a good plan. half & half is a must..

B22 said...

Was trolling through muni bond mf performance last night, some pretty incredible returns in there on a quite a few funds YTD. Funny the risks people will stick themselves into in the name of avoiding some taxes.

Nic said...

B22
as Rosie says, in deflation income is king.

karen said...

okay.. i really am leaving now.. AR, have fun with the wrap! just don't mention perch, okay? and don't feed the kraken.. we want him hungry ; )

I-Man said...

Damn Nic, those links have me all conspiracied out over here.

Why do they have to sound so damn believable?

B22 said...

was out a little early in it but the UUP call I sold was up 114% today.

feels good when they hit like that.

B22 said...

Nic,

Rosie has got that right.

Nic said...

This CSCO news is bad.
Their earnings in 2007 was what got the ball rolling down the hill.

B22 said...

oh, my boy Johnny Chambers! he's always classic on the earnings calls,

what was it in 07, strongest economy he'd seen "in his lifetime"?

Now he's on the uncertainty bandwagon:

"There are a large number of mixed signals in the market and customer expectations," Chambers said during a conference call with financial analysts. "'Unusual uncertainty' is an accurate description of what's to come."

http://www.internetnews.com/bus-news/article.php/3898061/Cisco+Earnings+Rise+But+Sales+Miss.htm

You da man....Johnny.

B22 said...

C,

I think it may be close to time to dedicate a thread to

unusual uncertainty

Leftback said...

Bucky is getting stronger in the overnight, but it's all about the yen here and whether BoJ feels like stepping in to prevent a carry unwind.

Ben, think of those TLT calls that CV bought and sold in the winter, wonder how much those were going for today...?

LB had enough Kraken for one day... goodnight, all....

B22 said...

no doubt lefty, just play the good set ups...easier said than done of course

Nic said...

Mr Denninger weighs in on Cisco - "Anyone remember Lucent"?
http://market-ticker.org/archives/2574-CISCO-Anyone-Remember-LUCENT.html

I-Man said...

LOL...

CV is going to piss himself when he reads that one!

He called that one last quarter!

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