Morning Audibles 7.16.10 - Shake Rattle & Roll

I knew I wasn't dreaming...


CV awoke early in this morning to a small rumble that built up rather quickly in intensity enough to be felt in a fairly interesting way... It probably didn't last for more than 8-10 seconds... But it was unmistakeable to me (who lived in Los Angeles for 13 years)... That was an EARTHQUAKE...


I was too sleepy to get out of bed to check the computer and verify, but lo and behold...



D.C. rattled by area's largest recorded earthquake

At the time, I knew it wasn't all that big, my guess was something close to a "4" (which is a "kiddy ride" for So Cal-ers), but is VERY unusual for these parts...

CV has been through some big ones before (including the "Northridge Quake", a 6.7) where I was living in, um, NORTHRIDGE at the time (actually visiting with, and staying with, a friend there)...

Within 6 months of the "Northridge Quake", CV moved to "Italy" (no connection), where a few years later, in Perugia, we were hit by the "Assissi Quake".

So the lesson here? There is none... This "little" one here is sure to get a lot of press locally, and LAUGHED at by people that live on active fault lines...

People who live in earthquake zones know that there are all kinds of different factors that go in to what a earthquake "feels" like...

- The intensity (actual number on the richter scale).
- How far you happen to be from the epicenter (CV "happened" to only be about 8 miles from ROCKVILLE as the crow flies, so even though this one was small, I felt it pretty large... Probably ahab too, ben, maybe? but probably not).
- whether it is a "jolting", or "rolling" type.
- The duration.
- What kind of structure you happen to be in at the time.
- The aftershocks (or pre-shocks).

So-Cal-ers even have "other" finely tuned senses... There are some days that a So-Cal-er will stop and just look around and say "this is EARTHQUAKE WEATHER"... Which, silly as it seems, is often accurate...

So, to wrap things up, this was not even NEAR the strongest earthquake I've ever experienced... I've probably been through more than 100... Probably only a dozen were noteworthy... 2-3 were downright scary... 1 I thought I was going to die...

This one was... MEH, an earthquake... But kind of cool (unusual) that it's happening in this region...

I now return you to your markets...

384 comments:

«Oldest   ‹Older   1 – 200 of 384   Newer›   Newest»
McFearless said...

I think they felt it in Japan

McFearless said...

CV, didn't feel anything up here, maybe southern DE though

CV said...

@McF

New image in thread...

BinT said...

"CV awoke early in this morning to a small rumble that built up rather quickly in intensity enough to be felt in a fairly interesting way... It probably didn't last for more than 8-10 seconds..."

....I am thinking someone had refried beans before bed.....

CV said...

Only you Doc... Only you! :-)

McFearless said...

lol, the Beard holds it all up....

mcHAPPY said...

Funny pic, CV. Nice read as well.

10 year under 3 percent. Hmmmmm....
Optimism yesterday was sickening re: GS.
Did anyone notice the 50% loan loss reserve cut by BofA? I guess things really are getting better.
DXY is ready to spring any day now.
EUR/USD are building skyscrappers on fault lines.
It is all one market, when one goes, they all go.

I'm not sure if we'll get that blow off I was talking about to 1106. I can count 3 waves or 5 waves off yesterday's low - unfortunately impusive and corrective!

Anonymous said...

Did someone notice the 1.30 print in Euro. AEP article had GS mentioning a target of 1.35 so maybe one shd be shorting now. Right CV?

Prashant

CV said...

Sounds good to me...

Other side of any GS "analyst" call...

CV said...

@Prashant

You must get big earthquakes all the time where you're at...

AmenRa said...

BoA cut loan loss provisions 50%. Yeah right. Plus they beat reduced earnings estimates.

McFearless said...

All,

Check out AT's slide 9er in his last update....dollar model showed target of high 82's...

spying UUP calls yesterday, I had nothing I took action on, will be looking again today and will likely find entry today or Monday.

BinT said...

http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601101&sid=abPuKHczwFt8

July 16 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s demand for services fell in May, adding to signs that the export-fueled recovery has been slow to spread to households.

The tertiary index, which captures 63 percent of the economy, slid 0.9 percent from April, when it advanced a revised 2.4 percent, the Trade Ministry said today in Tokyo. The median forecast of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a 0.7 percent decline.

Retail sales in the world’s second-largest economy have started to cool as the effects of government incentives for cars and home appliances wear off. Today’s data came after government reports for May showed Japan’s wages declined and the unemployment rate worsened, a sign the expansion is moderating.

...Well, that could never happen in these parts...

I see at CR this morning that FHA's new rules require a 580 fico and no new loans for ficos of under 500...my wife and I mulled this over for a minute...I wonder if the federal government will EVER get back to the old sustainable rules...20% down, stable credit and job history, you know...

This looks like for some time the taxpayer will be continuing to backstop federal home loans...2011 will be the taxman's delight.

Anonymous said...

Sometimes in northern hilly areas of India and some strong ones in Central and Western India. In fact, if I am not wrong, a very strong one in Central India was in the least active seismological zone.
But not too strong ones in and around Delhi though it is believed that the movements under the Himalayas is going to be the end all for these parts. Till then...

Anonymous said...

You asked about Burning Man Cv, dunno if anyone responded? I haven't been (living in Aus) but have been to heaps of similar outdoor raves (here they were called "doofs" dunno if they still are) and I just loved every one of 'em. Mushrooms, DMT and acid were the drugs of choice with the people I came to know. I ate acid so many times and I reckoned it was just a wonderful, healing substance. Never got around to trying those other ones and I guess I probably won't now that I'm old and sensible.

Anyway that's my take on dancing.

Bertie

Anonymous said...

McF, To me, AT's 81.50s looks stronger given the current "bullishness". Currently at 82.17, so kind of looks reachable.

Prashant

CV said...

@McF

I'd been talking with karen yesterday about that...

We'd discussed 23.91 as being the 50% retrace on UUP...

I'm seeing that print in the premarket this AM...

CV said...

I should say... BID/ASK

McFearless said...

No doubt Prashant, it could get down there, if you go with an impulse count off the lows in the dollar it could get down into the high 70's and that would be "normal"

CV said...

What's the ticker symbol on the "3x global idiot bubble" etf?

McFearless said...

I think that's the best near term trade, I need more clarity on the S&P before I get involved there again...wondering if it plays out as Nenner discussed yesterday...rally into April, sell into strength, all bets are off after that.

McFearless said...

rally into August....not April...wtf was that?

Anonymous said...

Oh and I enjoyed your fitness video CV, you were in good shape.
... and I loved the DMT EFT idea whoever that was!
Sorry I'm a bit behind in the conversation, I was traveling for work, in coalmine country, and was out of range.
Bertie


Bertie

CV said...

@McF

All I can say that if I was someone doing something like you (for clients - other people's money)...

Starting to move a little at a time into BUCKY here would seem to be nice cozy move (if my timeframe were, say, to protect money I'd made "short" earlier in the year, and/or, caught some of this ramp job since the 1010 lows...

Not suggesting anything... I'm just saying that under those conditions... Now seems to be the time to slowly start dipping toes and shuffling the deck chairs...

McFearless said...

C,

I played the dollar well the last time around, so I've done a lot of homework again this time and with a little luck it'll work again this time around. Stuff like this I only trade for a few clients, UUP triggers a lot of tax forms that cause a bit of a headache as I'm sure some others here have found out, it's one of a handful of ETF's that do this.

I'll tell you what, I've had millions of dollars parked in BND since 2008 for clients,....there is some trash in there, but that position allows me to sleep at night.

Anonymous said...

Yes I found Nenner convincing - probably because its what I wanted to hear... or maybe it was just his authoritative foreign accent... Anyway, I'll stay in cash despite my fear that its July "09 redux ha!

Bertie (who posts whenever he drinks red wine)

Anonymous said...

I felt it- but went right back to sleep-

pretty wild though!

CV said...

@McF

That's what makes it interesting on this blog...

There are so many with different strategies and timeframes...

- You & what "rules" you have to adhere to.
- LB with fixed income & occasional commodity & equity flirtations
- I-Man & DL doin' the MINI thing

It's kind of interesting...

Anonymous said...

What fitness video did I miss?

Prashant

CV said...

Let sleeping dogs lie...

Anonymous said...

Retail sales in the world’s second-largest economy have started to cool as the effects of government incentives for cars and home appliances wear off.

I have a question- why is it that government's feel they must bribe people to buy things-

I mean- is it ok to not buy things?

mcHAPPY said...

What time frame does the Michigan Sentiment survey being released this morning cover?

Anonymous said...

Good Morning all,

Since you've been discussing the dollar, I'll point out that Mole at Evil Speculator has a big post one or two posts back from the top on DXY. He references 2Sweeties Retracement Level product (Tim Knight used to post those alot back in '08 before they went subscription) and RL shows 82.77 as having an 87% reversal chance and 81.88 as 100% odds. Mole also writes at at 82.73, in his wave count, C would equal A. 81.85 would be where he sees the 123.6 fib. If futs are down, how are they gonna pin SPX at 1100 at the open? -Jennifer

McFearless said...

"I mean- is it ok to not buy things"

No it's not...not in a system that depends on credit expansion. Not only do they need them to buy, they need them to buy on credit.

Anonymous said...

jennifer-

are you a sloper?

Anonymous said...

b22-

kind of like Pavlov's dog- they trot out the tax credits and people start salivating-

conditioning you know

McFearless said...

ahab,

it is a lot like that

Anonymous said...

ahab -- I read it a lot, but I'm not a poster. -Jennifer

CV said...

"Not only do they need them to buy, they need them to buy on credit."

Great - Then the only way, REALLY, to beat them at their system is to do one of three things...

1. Don't borrow
2. Don't lend (no deposits)

OR

3. Borrow as much as you can - and never pay it back...

Anonymous said...

Sen. Schumer has written an open letter to the company asking Apple to provide a better solution to the iPhone 4's shortcomings at no cost to purchasers.

wtf??? are the iphone 4's reception problems a hazard?

72bat said...

@McH -
What time frame does the Michigan Sentiment survey being released this morning cover?
9:55 a.m.
http://www.finviz.com/

CV said...

I'm wondering if the SPY110 calls weren't all just closed out right before the bell yesterday (at least the "interested" ones)...

I haven't bothered to check the open interest...

Anonymous said...

jennifer-

I post there from time to time- not a regular for sure-

sometimes I use a different handle

CV said...

Tell Shumer, while he's at it... To write a letter to Verizon...

CV thinks the "Playboy Channel" should be FREE on his FIOS service...

Anonymous said...

Borrow as much as you can - and never pay it back...

kind of like the USG?

CV said...

Fucking tools!

Anonymous said...

@McFearless -- I took a family trip back in the summer of '05. Drove throughout the south on the way from Chicagoland to Gulf Shores, AL. On the way home we went through Memphis and visited Graceland. (Husband's family has spooky Elvis connections, his Mother died on Elvis' birthday and his father died on the day Elvis died.) Anyway, my big takeaway from Graceland was how much more stuff there is to buy now than there was then. I mean, the guy was filthy rich, but he had the same tacky gold veined formica countertops that half my hoity-toity childhood neighbors had. So he had 3 tvs in the basement -- big deal. Today the majority of Americans have 3 plus tvs (no scientific basis for this statement whatsoever, but totally confident that it is right.) This Graceland experience features prominently in my realization and later rejection of the Matrix. If only my trading account balance also demonstrated this...
-Jennifer

Nic said...

CV - so happy you survived.
Saw your vid, I am swooning :)

Anonymous said...

CV @ 9:24-

no kidding- why is Schumer getting involved in the call qualities of a cell phone-

national security?

wunsacon said...

>> Saw your vid, I am swooning :)

Does he look like Brad Pitt with or without the beard?

AmenRa said...

CV

The SPY107 puts have 2x Open interest than the 110 calls. Guess which option got screwed...

mcHAPPY said...

Thanks, bat. What I meant was, and what I'm searching for, is what time frame is the survey conducted? i.e. for this survey coming out at 9:55, when was the survey done? Between June 1-30? June 3-July 3? June 21-June 30?

Does anyone know? I can't find it.

CV said...

@Amen

Well it's all in the bag now...

Squid wins... BLOW for everyone!

karen said...

love the image!! shocked about quake.. gotta catch up.. green shorts and all that : )

fxe up still.. uup at your number CV.. and morning all!

CV said...

Hell... we're right back to where we were at 3:30 yesterday...

Those SEC "porn afficianados" really know how to throw a party...

Anonymous said...

What video did I miss?

Prashant

AmenRa said...

That was odd. First time I've seen NYSE TICK not get above zero in the frist five minutes.

karen said...

GS does not seem to be holding it's altitude, interesting..

72bat said...

prashant -
clonic spasms

AmenRa said...

Trade/close below 1084.77 (mn fibo .1107) should put 1064.64 (mn fibo .1272) on the radar.

CV said...

How many times are they going to have to do kick saves at DOW 10,000 on Fridays?

Nic said...

Tic data was not pretty this morning

Nic said...

Wunsacon - I don't like Brad's beard

CV said...

Let's not start putting CV in any categories of "bearded ones"...

- Bernanke
- Krugman

How about a little Amanda Beard?

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_2oq2bSN-S9o/SJ3bDxB05EI/AAAAAAAABic/YlXqso57uCw/s400/amanda%2Bbeard.jpg

karen said...

themosmitsos - pardon the French but look at a EURCHF chart for fuck's sake and tell me you can believe that! with USDCHF at 1.04!!!

alaidi - you must look at Cross FX pairs to get a sense of whats going on. dont remainfixated on $USD pairs @themosmitsos indeed

mcHAPPY said...

I do not like the gap at the open but hopefully that becomes a problem for a few weeks down the road. A break of 1080.53 won't be good for the bulls.

McFearless said...

@Jennifer,

yeah no doubt, most people have a real hard time being content with the things they already have.

karen said...

CV, give us girls a break on the airbrushing please! here's a slide show..

http://www.askmen.com/women/galleries/model/amanda-beard/picture-1.html

Nic said...

Karen
ashraf is the man for correlations. i can send you his book if you want

Anonymous said...

CV @ 9:52-

that's the kind of beard I like

karen said...

mrtopstep - now we have reached the second 10 handle rule we think we bounce from here

CV said...

I'm interested in her talents in the pool...

McFearless said...

CV,

8:42, I hardly ever bring retail clients net short...trying to explain why to people is an effort by itself, and betting against the market is just really hard for most retailers to get their head around, it's better in most cases to use shorts as a hedge and favor safer fixed income/cash.

someday I'll write a book about the retail mindset, it's like I'm in a lab every day just watching the grand experiment.

karen said...

Nic! you just bring it when you visit!

McFearless said...

well, I have to admit, not the open I figured we'd have...

I-Man said...

How bout them SPY 110 calls?

Sold to you, Johnny...

Sold. To. You.

McFearless said...

I-man,

don't forget BP....I should have shorted that late yesterday for a quick trade.

Anonymous said...

oh my-

Karen said a swear word-

what's the world coming to

Anonymous said...

consumer sentiment just no too cheery-

damn consumer's- no pleasing them

McFearless said...

Some Icky Thump to start your Friday right:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mVLDs0PZ9uE

McFearless said...

happy hour at BBC wilmington today if anyone is in the area! McFearless will be sipping frou frou drinks.

karen said...

oops on goog.. max pain 480.. currently 466.

wondering if it will see 430 something before the summer is out..

karen said...

ahab, not me thermosmitos tweet.. anyway, you've heard me before : )

Anonymous said...

This Graceland experience features prominently in my realization and later rejection of the Matrix.

wow- that's a wild statement- not sure I understand-

are you a rebel against the consumer society?

CV said...

Maybe TOPSTEP needed to go 3 10 handles...

McFearless said...

Ahab

jennifer = trinity

Anonymous said...

CV,we might not get our wish for 1107-1110
DP

Anonymous said...

what's everyone's thoughts on the "new" cap holding-

I see that thing blowing-

also- b22- perfect music for a Friday

Anonymous said...

b22-

ohhhhh!!! I liked Trinity- bad-ass and sexy all in one

Nic said...

Karen
I am short everything today, back on the team I hope :)

Anonymous said...

@Ahab -- I guess what I reall mean is that Graceland brought home for me exactly how consumerist our society has become over the last 30 years. I think it is easy to ignore the gradual creep of stuff as it happens slowly over time. I have 3 young kids and it is easly to get caught up in the day to day existence. Before you know it, you're mindlessly keeping up with the Joneses without even realizing it. They like their creature comforts, and frankly, so do I. To salve my late day rally wounds yesterday, I went to WFMI and bought up all the tasty pre-prepared guacamole and smoked gouda spread (two great tastes that don't necessarily go together) that I could reasonably expect to eat before they went bad. But when I walked into this "mansion" and all I could think was that it was nice but not all that different from how the average middle class person at the time was living, I just started to see how the world was convincing us that we needed to "upgrade" to brushed nickel faucets or granite this and that and just how many choices had been created in greater efforts to part us from our money, it was an awakening of sorts. It sort of coincided with the peak of the RE bubble, my discovery of Mish/CR/TBP, and my learning (I'm embarassed to say from Fleckenstein's contrarian capital column) about how the gov't tinkered w/ the numbers to keep the reported rate of inflation down. Hmmm....guacamole for breakfast...sounds good to me. -Jennifer

AmenRa said...

I have 1.2994 as the high print for the Euro. When exactly did it break 1.3000?

Anonymous said...

Nic, I hope you right. You made a good call last time. DP

Anonymous said...

I like your thinking Jennifer

Nic said...

I am just a swinger DP.
Just be wary of next week and GS earnings, we could have a turnaround Tuesday to remember.

AmenRa said...

Jennifer

http://www.shadowstats.com
John Williams also does a good breakdown of economic indicators and how they have been adjusted.

Anonymous said...

This little move on the 5 min chart looks like a bear flag to me. I read Al Brooks' new book, something like Price Action Trading: Reading charts bar by bar. He points out that too many traders on a trending day are looking for counter trend moves instead of using pullbacks as opportunities to enter with trend. I've noticed that this is true for me and I'm working on it. That's my trading tip for the day -- given that I blew a ton of my profits over the last several days take it for what its worth. -Jennifer

Nic said...

I like you thinking too Jennifer

CV said...

@DP (10:16)

Not today it wouldn't seem...

CV keeps holding out for these last few handles to print (waiting for 900's @ 1010) - waiting for 1107 @ 1097)...

Market never seems to get there...

Nic said...

I think Jesse has the best slogan:
NEED LITTLE - WANT LESS - LOVE MORE

Nic said...

Sorry CV - your slogans are very good too :)
:) :)

I-Man said...

Problems with countertrend?

WHO???

Anonymous said...

Thanks, everyone. That was probably more of an introduction to me than you really wanted (or I intended to give!) Found Shadowstats -- he's great. Love that Jesse slogan too. Okay, back to the charts. -Jennifer

CV said...

Jesse needs to add... "BUY GOLD & COMPLAIN ABOUT THE MAN CONSPIRING TO HOLD GOLD PRICES DOWN" to that (so as to be more accurate)...

Mannwich said...

Me-thinks the banks are gonna have a very hard time hitting their numbers without the aid of their political and Fed friends. How to make money without the aid of trading free money in a sideways market? A little harder, it seems.....

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/17/business/17bank.html?_r=1&hp

AmenRa said...

BAC -6%, C -3.8%, GE -2.6%, JPM -2.5%, ABK -5%, MBI -2%, WFC -4.2%, GS +3.3%

Who's your daddy?

CV said...

One thing that CV was right about this week was the VIX holding that 144MA line and bouncing higher...

Although... I'd rather be MAKING MONEY, than MAKING PREDICTIONS right now...

This must be how Ritholtz feels... Cash all dressed up and nowhere to go...

Meanie said...

I have a slogan for TWSWB
Need Nothing - Want Everything - Love Myself

Mwuahaha

Mannwich said...

Excuse me, the free money's still there, but the market ain't likely to move that much higher in the short or medium term. Which means, they'll need to take it down at some point and then take it back up (lather, rinse, repeat). Need that volatility to shake down the last remaining small fry in the market.

CV said...

@Manny...

Banks...

Or worse... If they were all lowering their capital reserves to make their nut this quarter... What's going to happen when they have to add those back in in coming quarters?

Mannwich said...

@CV: Exactly, which means old FAZZY's gotta run again at SOME point in the near future. Running a bit today but I mean REALLY running....

Question is, when? As always, right? ;-)

karen said...

found a post on TBP that was interesting:

Janet Tavakoli Says:
July 16th, 2010 at 8:29 am
For years the SEC failed to do its job to protect investors, including retail investors. Likewise, it failed to deal with accounting fraud. The SEC is well behind private litigation (in scope and theory) in these matters.

This is a great settlement for the SEC, but its focus on sophisticated investors that could have fought for themselves using their own resources for recovery should just be the beginning. There are much bigger issues here. Multi-year malfeasance was widespread. CEOs and CFOs in this post-Sarbanes Oxley world should be held accountable.

This is a small victory, but one shouldn’t let it misdirect from the larger profound issues.

I’ve stated this publicly on more than one occasion. With respect to this case, in these two venues:

With Katie Couric on CBS: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WiwZ2LfOO-c&feature=player_embedded

and on Canada’s CTV: http://www.cbc.ca/video/#/News/Money/ID=1473248390

CV said...

@Manny

The "book" on that lately seems to be...

1. All equities get a "pop" for the first 3 weeks of a new quarter... (which lasts about 3 weeks)

2. When banks finish reporting, they, and the rest of the market sells off...

3. About a month before the new quarter begins, bank stocks trough (usually just after opex of the previous month)...

4. Banks rally through next earnings...

AmenRa said...

ECRI -9.8%. Recovery my ass. Recession continues.

CV said...

@Amen

If SPX closes here... Isn't that a nice little EVENING STAR on the WEEKLY candle?

McFearless said...

Jennifer,

That's a very true post up there....one area that people seemed to think there was this new "must have" are the theatre rooms you see in houses now. I've had many clients drop 25-30k getting these put into the house.

I have a client right now spending 275k to redo yard work, a driveway with special stone, and to add a room on to an 10,000 sq ft. home.

He has two sons, but they are off at college, so it's him and his wife and 10,000 square feet to roam around in.

McFearless said...

isn't ECRI at -10% like a 100% chance of recession according to their infallible model?

AmenRa said...

Ben

Yes. According to 42 years of data.

CV said...

@McF

"He has two sons, but they are off at college, so it's him and his wife and 10,000 square feet to roam around in."

I'd hate to have his heating/air conditioning & electric bill...

He & his wife probably sit around at cocktail parties with their friends and discuss ways to stop global warming...

McFearless said...

"Which means, they'll need to take it down at some point and then take it back up"

From where I sit, when I widen my view a bit, it seems "they" have been failing at the whole bringing it back up thing for oh....about a decade now yes?

Anonymous said...

@McF -- In a libertarian sense, if he has the money and that's how he wants to spend it then so be it. If he's borrowing then he's a fool. If he thinks he'll ever get that money back in a sale then he needs to get his head examined. I could think of better things to do w/ the dough myself. -Jennifer

CV said...

@McF

Well, they probably will already be correct because we never actually LEFT the recession...

McFearless said...

CV,

this february, he called me, after our Storm of the Century.

DelMarva Power bill came

$2,347 and change.

for the month.


ding!

McFearless said...

let me say this though, this guy is very smart and a big time saver at this point so I can't knock him too hard, he makes a large income. one of my fav. clients and was also one of my first clients.

CV said...

They only post that ECRI data anymore so that Ritholtz has something to blog about...

When he's not "wall streeting", "travelling", or eating "Grey Poupon sandwiches"...

McFearless said...

but yeah,....I just think of all the things to spend money on...but I'm hardly ever home, so I'm probably biased about not caring if I live at the Ritz.

72bat said...

@ ahab
"what's everyone's thoughts on the "new" cap holding?"
going back to what the guy said on theoilbarrel regarding the initial top-kill effort, what was done (they didn't jam the whole load of mud into the well all at once which is s.o.p. for a top-kill) pointed to concern that there was downhole damage and if top-killed (or capped) the sudden pressurization might cause a blow-out of the whole well casing or at least csing failures & blow-outs at one or more points downhole.
my first thought on this "successful" capping was that they could well have done this weeks ago but wanted to wait (were told to wait by usg?) until the relief wells were all but ready to breach at the bottom in case needed to kill the well at the bottom.

Anonymous said...

You could buy a lot of puts with that! -J

Anonymous said...

.002 to go- lol

CV said...

@McF (11:02)

$2,347!!!

Jeez, he could at least invited a dozen or so bums off the street to come in and stay warm for a few days...

McFearless said...

this all sort of looks like yesterday....

Anonymous said...

They should just get Snuggies. -J

McFearless said...

no kidding CV, my reaction was to say

Wow, that's a decent sized mortgage payment.

Anonymous said...

last post was in response to b22's 10:58 post

He & his wife probably sit around at cocktail parties with their friends and discuss ways to stop global warming...

now that's funny and sad all in one- and probably true

Anonymous said...

U.S. employees old enough to retire are outnumbering their teenage counterparts for the first time since at least 1948 when Harry Truman was president, a sign of how generations are now having to compete for jobs.- Bloomberg via TBP

sign of the times

CV said...

I'm convinced we go dead sideways for the next two weeks (20 point SPX - sorry, 18 point SPX range up and down)... for the next two weeks...

July ends on a Friday (for markets - July 30)...

Which means...

MOMO Mondays & Tuesdays fall conveniently on August 2nd & 3rd...

That'll be the last time they'll be able to bid up prices to distribute at decent prices...

So, if we're in the "B" wave now, that'll be the "C"...

Johnny needs to tell Brian (sometime in August probably) what to do with his money at the end of September...

Johnny looks at his balance, is distracted by his vacation, and decides to stay put...

Bottom falls out after that...

McFearless said...

ahab,

nah, he's not that kind of guy actually. He's worked extremely hard to get where he is, maybe one of the hardest workers I've ever met, he's not the cocktail party type, he pays a lot for a country club here, but that's more for networking and he uses it to play golf, he once told me he can't stand the people at the parties there, especially Joe Biden.

Anonymous said...

ahab has left the building-

all have a good day . . .

CV said...

Is there ANYBODY that likes Joe Biden?

Anyone?

I mean... He has to be even less popular that "W" himself...

72bat said...

@ cv
sister (m.d.) and her hubby (m.d. and j.d.) added-on to there manse as 3 sons were born, all now graduated and left home. Leaving them with 4 hvac systems which cost more to run than all my utilities and my mortgage. however, she does drive a prius. muahahahah!

McFearless said...

he's either loved or hated here in DE, not a whole lot of in between with the peeps I talk with.

CV said...

@72bat

That's what I'm talking about... :-)

Classic

AmenRa said...

CV

The revised B/D happens on NFP Friday also.

CV said...

SPX is now entering into that "box" (from the June 29 gap down...

BULLS better wake up here... I doubt they want to lose that box...

CV said...

@Amen (11:22)

You're talking August 6th, right?

AmenRa said...

CV

So what's going to happen when the SPY107 puts become itm? Market up or down with all of the STC orders?

bob said...

TLT busted out of it's downtrend and nearing it's high

AmenRa said...

CV

Yes 8/6/10

CV said...

@McF

DELAWARE

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6M_1fGshM1o&feature=PlayList&p=8BBDF8AED47FF458&playnext_from=PL&playnext=1&index=14

McFearless said...

bulls better wake up indeed, this could be getting close to the trap door. we still never really busted through 1100 with any authority...like I said the other day, it's acting like 1040 area did on the way down, sort of dents the idea that we are going to see 1150 real soon.

McFearless said...

lol C, classic.

I'm from PA originally, I applied this job in college and I remember thinking,.....how the hell do I get to delaware.

I-Man said...

If we follow yesterdays lead, then the selling should be done before lunchtime...

That would indicate one more whoosh lower to wrap it up... looking for 10066 on YM.

CV said...

@Amen

Do some fibo extensions off of 1099.46...

Then look at today's low print...

I-Man said...

YM just fell back below the downtrend off the April 26th high, that we broke out of on Monday...

Hmmm....

CV said...

I say it holds here and bounces, weakly, back to 1083...

karen said...

CV.. spy needs to see 107, pls. what happens there is the coin toss.

AmenRa said...

CV

1073.51 minor fibo .236 better hold or the minor fibo .382 of 1057.46 will hit before the day is over.

AmenRa said...

Karen

That's the option with the most open interest. If it hits there will be massive STC's.

McFearless said...

a trip down memory lane (or is it maiden lane?)

october 26, 2005 WSJ

"Ben Bernanke Is the Right Person at the Right Time"

Arthur Laffer: "I have never witnessed or even read about an economy that comes close to the excellence of the current US economy. It just doesn't get any better"

I-Man said...

Funny guy, Art Laugher...

CV said...

@Amen

1073.51... That's what I'm talking about

I-Man said...

A sneaky dump right before lunch would be right in line with the classy nature of this market...

CV said...

Speaking of lunch...

CV is hungry (and didn't eat breakfast)...

But I can't leave with these levels hanging in the balance...

Stomach said...

Grrrr!

I-Man said...

ditto that, brah... grumble, grumble.

Gordon G said...

Lunch is for wimps

CV said...

XLF is .13 from hitting its 50% retrace off the June lows...

H&S there...

When that gets hit, the banks ought to catch a bid, and take the market with it...

They're trying to hold it together in other ways until then...

CV said...

I'll have the steak tartar...

CV said...

but hold the "tartar" sauce...

Nic said...

I like Joe Biden ...
Please don't ban me CV

karen said...

looking at xlf makes me furious.. tues, wed, and thurs shouldn't have happened.. vicious market.

ben, what's rr saying? i love what he says about a bear.. everyone loses, the winners lose the least.

72bat said...

nic -
i admire joe biden for at least this one thing - the years he commuted home from d.c. to be with his kids every night.

BinT said...

http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2010/07/026764.php

"This will give the Democrats heartburn: in a preview of possible 2012 matchups, Public Policy Polling finds Mike Huckabee leading Barack Obama 47-45 percent. Mitt Romney holds a slightly larger 46-43 lead, while Obama currently is tied with Sarah Palin, 46-46. Newt Gingrich leads Obama by one point, too."

...When I was a kid, nobody ever wanted to be considered the doofus...but sometimes it just happens..

CV said...

Lunch is served...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=es7rd5qlDDs

BinT said...

I like Joe Biden too...if it weren't for him I couldn't consider them Dumb AND Dumber...

Nic said...

Isn't it wild that Goldman gets off with its wrists slapped and the guy from IKB bank is going to jail for the subprime stuff.
KD is right, it is mindblowing that there is no legal consequences for this mess in the US.

BinT said...

By the way, this is generally considered a Pro-democratic polling organization...

I-Man said...

Furreal...

GS probably banked 500mill before lunch today... shit, they probably banked that on the CC number alone.

Nic said...

HAHAHA hold the tartar sauce.

CV said...

@I-Man

They made it here...

"Since when does the SEC announce that it's about to make an announcement - about an hour before the market closes the day before options expiration?

There's clearly biased and then there's ridiculous. This falls into the latter camp.

The market, was selling off. No, not hard, but it was. Then, suddenly - magically - the SEC decides to announce that it's going to say something after the market closes.

Everyone of course assumes it's Goldman, and soon rumors confirm it. Not that it matters - the entire market turns on a dime.

If the decision was made and the settlement approved, ok fine. But why today, one hour before the market closes, with OpEx in the morning - with a bunch of SPX Puts and Calls open at the 1100 strike with many of them "in the money" at that point in time.

Now, of course, they're not by nearly so much.

If I'm supposed to be impressed by the timing, I'm not. It stinks to high hell, but I'm used to it. Finding something - anything - you can use to "gun the market" when it's on the verge of breaking down has become somewhat of an art form.

I find it amusing and have learned to stay out of the way of these shenanigans.

But if the clown-car brigade in Washington DC thinks this is in any way constructive, or that I should believe that the nearly 100,000 CALL contracts that traded today on Goldman (for expiry tomorrow!) were all "organic", with absolutely no inside information or foreknowledge (with outsize profits for the "inside" folks) then you're far more naive than I am. The $150 strike CALLs, in particular, recorded a one-day price "improvement" of seventeen hundred percent.

Nice, if you're "lucky" enough to buy and hold them at the appointed time. 25,352 contracts on the $150 strike alone representing more than 2.5 million shares were in fact "lucky enough."

I do not yet have reported times on them (and won't until after the weekend) to know if this "luck" happened before or after the announcement hit the wire. I'll look at it when the data is available to me, not that I expect anyone will care to investigate.

These folks in DC need to check their excretory orifice and get rid of the klingons, because this sort of game is just one more example of how confidence continues to be destroyed in our capital markets through acts of willful intent in Washington DC."

karen said...

Nic, Ritholtz is arguing that, " This is a painful loss for Goldman Sachs, with expensive repercussions likely to last far into the future:"

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/07/who-steered-you-wrong-about-the-goldman-sachs-case/

I-Man said...

Hey, who's that from CV? Denninger?

karen said...

These are only the ones being accounted for !!!

Friday, July 16th, 2010, 11:15 am
Bank of America (BAC: 14.18 -7.86%) reported $35.7bn in nonperforming loans, leases and foreclosed properties in Q210, which is 15% above levels measured in the same quarter of last year.

These loans and properties increased more than $5bn in total aggregate balance since Q209. The total did drop by more than $200m worth of these loans and properties from the $35.9bn reported in Q110.

They represented 3.74% of all outstanding loans, leases and foreclosed properties at the end of Q210.

http://www.housingwire.com/2010/07/16/bofa-nonperforming-loans-foreclosures-up-15-from-a-year-ago

CV said...

@I-Man

KD... Who else?

karen said...

we went up 90 pts in 8 days.. isn't the way down supposed to be and exponential? at least an equal and opposite reaction is due.. LOL

karen said...

Kid Dynamite has a lovely garden!

http://fridayinvegas.blogspot.com/2010/07/pickle-farmer.html

The Beard said...

@karen

Refer to last image in thread above

karen said...

alaidi - No more news of banks settling w/ SEC to push up stocks.. so in 40-60 mins new wave of #yen & $USDX buying $$

mcHAPPY said...

@Manny

I know Bam Investor is looking for 20+ (and much more) on FAZ sooner rather than later. Although they have had this call for quite sometime!

Anonymous said...

Yeah, but weren't they looking for $40 on AAPL? -Jennifer

Anonymous said...

@Jennifer 10.23. Agree with that.

What is wrong with markets today. How can they be down? What are the odds that it is just a bear trap? Or maybe it is just wishful thinking from a guy WAITING to short. And WAITING. WAITING still.

Prashant

CV said...

GOLD is getting blasted...

Rumor is that Paulson is down a billion...

CV said...

LB must have "sneakily" made it appear that he was going out of town, but instead stayed around and PUT THE SQUEEZE on JP...

karen said...

This is what we are missing:

http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/city.html?n=69

karen said...

alaidi - SAME THING seen on FridayMay21 when stocks rallied for 1/2 day on RUMOURS of $GS settlmt only for more selling that monday #market #forex $$

I-Man said...

I could see us peeling off another 70 pts or so on YM before the close...

10050 level looks like it could use a test.

I-Man said...

The flatline in audusd gives me a little pause though... must say.

BinT said...

I think the economic numbers of the last month have been terribly weak...Everything from the Baltic Dry Index to new home starts to consumer credit (and the actual reasons it is behaving as it is) to the CPI. It appears that the old bubba, Roubini and his "U-shaped" recovery that he began spouting years ago now are coming to pass...if indeed, this will be looked at as a recovery. The debt balloon has burst, and it looks like it is going to be some time before a natural reset takes place. Krugman must be crying in his beer..

McFearless said...

"ben, what's rr saying?"

From last night:

"Stay with the primary trends. Stocks are caught in a primary bear market, so stay out of the stock market and I mean stay out."

to his credit, he warned recently there was a Dow Theory non-confirmation but he said it wasnt' worth even playing it....cash and gold, he says it every day.

Ty Webb said...

@karen

"A flute with no holes is not a flute... And a donut with no holes is... a DANISH"

«Oldest ‹Older   1 – 200 of 384   Newer› Newest»

Post a Comment

Disclosure/Warning

This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.