CV awoke early in this morning to a small rumble that built up rather quickly in intensity enough to be felt in a fairly interesting way... It probably didn't last for more than 8-10 seconds... But it was unmistakeable to me (who lived in Los Angeles for 13 years)... That was an EARTHQUAKE...
I was too sleepy to get out of bed to check the computer and verify, but lo and behold...
D.C. rattled by area's largest recorded earthquake
At the time, I knew it wasn't all that big, my guess was something close to a "4" (which is a "kiddy ride" for So Cal-ers), but is VERY unusual for these parts...
CV has been through some big ones before (including the "Northridge Quake", a 6.7) where I was living in, um, NORTHRIDGE at the time (actually visiting with, and staying with, a friend there)...
Within 6 months of the "Northridge Quake", CV moved to "Italy" (no connection), where a few years later, in Perugia, we were hit by the "Assissi Quake".
So the lesson here? There is none... This "little" one here is sure to get a lot of press locally, and LAUGHED at by people that live on active fault lines...
People who live in earthquake zones know that there are all kinds of different factors that go in to what a earthquake "feels" like...
- The intensity (actual number on the richter scale).
- How far you happen to be from the epicenter (CV "happened" to only be about 8 miles from ROCKVILLE as the crow flies, so even though this one was small, I felt it pretty large... Probably ahab too, ben, maybe? but probably not).
- whether it is a "jolting", or "rolling" type.
- The duration.
- What kind of structure you happen to be in at the time.
- The aftershocks (or pre-shocks).
So-Cal-ers even have "other" finely tuned senses... There are some days that a So-Cal-er will stop and just look around and say "this is EARTHQUAKE WEATHER"... Which, silly as it seems, is often accurate...
So, to wrap things up, this was not even NEAR the strongest earthquake I've ever experienced... I've probably been through more than 100... Probably only a dozen were noteworthy... 2-3 were downright scary... 1 I thought I was going to die...
This one was... MEH, an earthquake... But kind of cool (unusual) that it's happening in this region...
I now return you to your markets...
384 comments:
«Oldest ‹Older 201 – 384 of 384 Newer› Newest»@BinT
yeah but with these kooky markets, the day BDI ticks positive even for one day, it ought to be worth a 1,000 dow points...
some interesting astro stuff today, those damn planets wreak havoc on options expy.
nobody commented on what I said about BDI and newly built ships coming to market the other day....
Check July 23rd
http://www.astrocartographyinfo.com/CrisisWarning/Crisis2010-KeyDateChartsRev1a.htm
Also Selassie I's birthday...
Rastafari wears the crown.
full moon on the 26th..
I,
yes, and there are four dates in August.
I'm hoping the +/- a day comes into play in Sept. 9/22 is my b-day, they have 9/23 as a date, would be a nice present. I think yours is right around there too if I remember right.
lunch time check on the markets, where are we going?...
Wow, we blew thru 1080, tried to get back to it but didn't work out, doubt we'll trade back to 1080 in the next few trading days. 1071 (1070.45) just happens to be (LOD) on July 12th, 50% 1080-1062.
Good support between 1069-1073, probably where we'll close out this week. Come to think of it, those numbers are .618 and .382 of 1062-1080. Funny how that worked out. I'm having fun with this :) Drop below 1069 and it's all over.
Sorry bulls, should have held 1098 and taken it over 1100, now we'll probably see 1062 and below next week. But, I really can't predict these moves...
18
Mine is 9/23... got a really sick reversal last year for my present from Jah.
AT,
if you are around....think this is valid to say it is some sort of expanding triangle b wave we are in?
Virgos Unite!
Mr Topstep Time
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TejtkVZD7r0
Arent you a cusp, McF?
Pretty sure I'm a libra/virgo cusp... at least thats what my ma always said.
Not up on my astrology... but I think its really interesting stuff.
have you all heard the stress test rumors from EU...apparently the only banks that will fail will be greek banks.
man....this is the best kind of comedy isn't it?
What I find amusing and compelling here on an almost daily basis is coincidence (I don't believe in it) and how few "degrees of separation" really are. I was digging through some old stuff last night, and what do I discover? A business card for a shop called Hell-Bent for Leather.The girls name and number on it? Karen. Where was the shop? Northridge fashion center. Where was I living? In between houses with a friend, probably next door to CV. And the girl I should have married? A few miles from CV's farm.
And Jennifer... I've played a few tunes with Louie Shelton...who used to play guitar for Elvis.
SO glad I dont have to go to work in that pit every day...
What a grind.
That's why I love the movie Signs. There are no coincidences. -Jennifer
virgo is 8/23-9/22 so yeah, I guess you are on the edge:
http://entertainment.howstuffworks.com/september-23-birthday-astrology.htm
hmmm, 1062.20 from Mr. TS
looking forward to the new 8 am updates
did you all see AAII results?
you know, we should just be honest about that poll, virtually all the people that park in neutral are in fact bullish. they are the "healthy correction" crew.
From DR today:
Fannie is offering financing to first-time buyers who only have a $1,000 down-payment. Several banks are now offering clients home-equity lines of credit of up to $2.5 million. According to FICO and J.D. Power, 8% of all loans made last quarter by the banks were to borrowers with the weakest credit scores — up from 6.2% at the end of last year. Surreal.
Who is DR? -Jennifer
Zero defense at the low...
Dave Rosenberg
I should have known that...just used to seeing everyone call him Rosie! Thank you-J
MUST...NOT...LET...SPY107 PUTS...GET...ITM!!!
ROTFLMAO
McFearless, my HF friends in the UK say 11 banks will fail the EU stress test, at least 85bln will have to be raised, and some of them are German ...
@Amen
LOL - All I can think of are those old Superman & Batman movies when I hear that...
themosmitsos - I would *DEFINITELY* **NOT** consider SPX from long side no matter how far down it crashes until/unless Obama announces #SecondStimulus #QE2
CV
http://www.ozoux.com/eclectic/archive/2006/06/13/images/batman.jpg
Ben,
I wouldn't mind your thoughts on this from an EW perspective:
June 21 start of minor 1 and ended with an extended 5th wave.
July 1st started minor 2 with a retracement back to previous 4th wave (1099.64) of minor 1 on June 23rd.
Minor 2 ended with a trunucated 5th wave just before yesterday's close. 9 days down, followed by 9 days up.
This would put us in minor 3.
I'm a little 'iffy' on the minor 1 count but it is the only thing that is making sense to me.
My other possible count would be we are in minute 5 of minor 1. However, minute 4 would have been 9 days with minute 1-3 being done in previous 9 days (June 21-July 1). The time relationships are really bad here.
wow...new LOD after AAPL conf even though aapl was up. McF -- I'm following your top count. Might be too bearish, but I don't want to miss the move down. -Jennifer
NDR, Lowry, Yamada & Meisler’s Technical View
http://www.tradersnarrative.com/
Anyone read Afraid to Trade today? Corey seems to be saying that if Intel can't reclaim the downtrending channel then this move could be a bear trap. So far, INTC is still above the channel as he has it drawn. Thoughts? -Jennifer
I spy a total (OI & Vol) SPY107 puts of 526433...
And what is up w/ the Ag group? Why can't they get with the program? -Jennifer
Vix sonar is a 3-way today - see 48secs in
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FzhoKgIben0
INTC is in a downtrend already based on 13/34 ema; turned down mid may... so it's a moot point, or non-starter..
more on MON for Ben..
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/07/get-your-wheat-on.html
Karen -- thanks. -J
alaidi - considering that yen rally emerged ahead of stoks detrioration well is running dry,stick ard till after NY close for FX stellemnst
(I can stop posting those tweets if you want..)
now that i got my 107.. i want my 106 !!! i'm never satisfied, laughing.
CV, where are you? can't stand it when you disappear. where is everyone, btw? have you moved to another blog? you can just skip my comments, you know.
INTC (current 3LB info)
Weekly
trend=down
rev= 20.85, mid= 20.10
Monthly
trend=down
rev= 32.95, mid= 22.85
Quiet down Karen!
Just kidding... we love your posts and tweets.
Starting to look at some long entries... might be too soon, but seems like we've stalled.
Would like to catch a move back up to test the downtrend, around 10116 on YM.
Anyone a Simpsons fan?
Haven't watched it in years but the first few seasons I use to always watch.
Why do I bring this up?
"Apple to offer free iPhone4 case"
Do you remember the episode where Lisa makes a doll "Lisa Lionheart" I believe to battle with Malibu Stacey. Lionheart stood for strong and independent women, Malibu Stacey was the stereotypical woman from the '50's. When all the kids showed up to buy Lisa Lionheart, they pushed out a Malibu STacey with a new hat.
DO I need to explain this analogy any further?
O.K. I will.... satisfy the sheeple with a new hat or, in Apple's case, a free case.
Animated comedy has come to life.
CV can rename the site: "Karen's Commentary".
@McHappy: And someone on Bloomie radio just now surmised that this ploy will get more Apple sheeple into the stores and some will ultimately buy more stuff from them, so it's a positive.
Get a "free" case and we'll throw in a MAC Air for 1,500.
An iPhone is still a status symbol.
@Manny 2:18
LOL
"Nothing good ever happens after 2 AM. It took me 15 years to learn that lesson and every once in a while, I willfully forget it."
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/
I guess we still got more downside here, i'll cover my some shorts tomorrow.DP
Disregard my 2:08, if you havent already...
It was dumb. Caught a few pts, but wasnt worth it.
Need to turn off the brain, and stick to the charts.
mish draws an interesting comparison, Medical Reform vs. Financial Reform legislation.
Financial Reform Minuses
Glass-Steagall: Paul Volcker supported provisions that were hopelessly watered down, so much so that they can accomplish nothing. This was a complete failure.
Derivatives Reform: Banks successfully lobbied for derivative exceptions big enough to drive the planet Jupiter through. They succeeded. Derivatives reform is meaningless.
Too Big To Fail: The reform bill did absolutely nothing to rein in the widely recognized "too big to fail" policies of the Fed. This was a complete failure.
Preventing the Last Crisis: There is not a single thing in the bill that can possibly be construed to have prevented the last crisis. This was a complete failure.
Preventing the Next Crisis: There is not a single thing in the bill that can possibly do anything to prevent the next crisis. This too was a complete failure.
Financial Reform Pluses
None. The bill accomplished virtually nothing.
Whereas Medical Reform not only accomplished nothing, it actually made matters substantially worse.
Thus, in comparison, Financial Reform was a stunning "success" in not making matters worse.
ugh.. accidentally found my way to the co-author of Sarah from Alaska book on Twitter.. how upsetting.
DP, sorry to inform you that the market is closed on the morrow..
"karen said...
DP, sorry to inform you that the market is closed on the morrow.."
maybe he's paper trading... LOL
how scared are we to hold any shorts into the last hour?? how conditioned are we from the last two weeks?
Already got short again, sold the 10078.
Looking for 10054 for starters.
dp -
The sun will come out, tomorrow
Bet your bottom that tomrrow, there'll be sun
Just thinking about, tomorrow
Clears away the cobwebs and the sorrow,
Til there's none.
When im stuck with the day, thats grey, and lonely,
i Just stick out my chin and grin and say,
Ohhhhhhh. The sun will come out, tomorrow
So you gotta hang on til tomorrow,
Come what may,
Tomorrow, tomorrow, I luv ya, tomorrow
You're always a day away
@Karen 2:28
Look at the previous 9 days before this most recent 9 days.
Think about the sentiment the last couple of days.
Compare the "good" news versus the "Bad" news.
MAX pain for vix, which expires next week is down. If I were still betting this week I would bet up on spx.
I work evreyday, So everyday is monday for me. 7year straight going on 8th.
K, thanks for reminding me, I won't get @5.00am tomorrow read the blogs. DP
One of these times the bottom is gonna drop out...
Check the 55ema...
we are also on the 38 retrace from the recent top to the recent bottom.
@karen
I'm bored - so I'm cleaning the house...
CV, but you might miss a swoon to 1040! laughing.. can't happen, right? okay, 1060, then.
Yeah, I get bored whenever the Dow drops 240.
That sounds like DL...
@DP
I just lost my only customer for Saturday morning...
I guess that means I can hit the wine cellar this evening...
@anon
It's not my trading style to play these minor waves...
I doubt the move off of 1010 is complete... This is all just backing & filling...
Wake me up when we either get to 1131, or drop below 1010...
That's why we have I-Man to entertain us with the sub minuettes...
I-Man @ 2:44
And why is that?
Oh snap!
Hadnt heard much from you today, and that sounded alot like your brand of sarcasm.
Thought you might be off site, and doing some anon posting from a mobile.
DL, because it was a very clever remark!
i meant witty, actually, laughing.
What Karen said.
:)
@I 2:36
I keep waiting for the same thing.
Whatever move comes next is going to be violent: up or down.
CV @ 2:47
You make him sound like some 18th-century musical composer.
Alright, lets shake this shit down and get this party started...
oh, dear.. i am not into violence.
@Jennifer
Your 1:55...the disjunct between MOS and POT?
yeh, yeh, take it back up to 1069, 2.5% drop in one day is good enuff.
18
Grabbing 3-5 pts at a time in a trading range was not what I had in mind...
@DL
I-Man is the maestro
@CV
In terms of gaps there is little to back and fill. Only gaps are above now.
Just looked at a 5min chart for the first time in awhile...
What is this? Water torture?
A very orderly, measured decline...
Wonder if this means we get one of those stealth 100 pt drops at 3:45 that everyone loves so much on a summer friday afternoon...
After being lulled to sleep by the quiet range.
The tape, since 10AM, looks unnatural as hell...
How do you have something that looks that smooth & linear on an OPEX Friday?
CV @ 2:58
They say that about Greenspan, also.
sorry, I'll be back in 5, been on the phone. People calling in that want to buy BP because "well is capped"
lol.
Which, by sheer coincidence would land us right on top of the YM low, at 9950...
JTOL. (as usual)
OK DL, we're even now... deal?
I-Man,
For the moment.
@DL
Back in the middle of April you said GS at 130 would be a buy. That was a good call. Did you pick any up?
And there go all of AAPL's gains. -Jennifer
McHappy,
give me a little more time on that count up there, I'd want to check some of the impulse waves on more than 2 time frames.
Well, I am a huge sci-fi fan...going to see the Leonardo release tonight with Mrs. BinT. I'll let you know what I think.
Jennifer,
you should get a blogger profile, makes it easier to identify the poster...just a thought.
McHappy @ 3:09
Your memory is better than mine; I'd forgotten about that. I rarely buy individual stocks, although I will occasionally opine about them.
Bruce,
I finally watched his last one, you were right, too easy to figure out what was going on.
DL,
how come no individuals, just your style?
I did all individual stocks in 09 when I was on the long side, mainly because I could have picked almost anything. Normally though I stick to a few stocks I know and trade the indexes.
McFearless,
Do you think anyone would try to steal my identity?
- Jennifer
lot of people stillcoming through but my boy Lee Westwood is sitting in 3rd right now, hope that leg holds up through Sunday.
nah, I don't think anyone would, I'm maybe the biggest mouth here and nobody has done it to me.....yet.
McF @ 3:15
It's hard enough to figure out where the indexes are going to go. I figure that individual stocks move based on a combination of: (a) the S&P500 and (b) inside information.
If I want leverage, or "beta", it's easy enough to get.
As I whistle past the graveyard noticing that the SPX is hanging around its weekly 3LB mid of 1066.73. Closing below changes sentiment to negative IMO.
Everyone here is an idiot.
- McFearless
Ben,
I now use the Rotten Tomatoes website before I decide on a movie. It is too easy to be disappointed these days, when you could just wait a few months and see it on video.
Anon's are pussies...
-I-Man
I'm smarter than I look....
BinT
Hey, you took the words right out of I and I mouth!
Spooky...
Also closing below minor 1064.64 puts major 1041.83 and minor 1022.44 in play.
Yee-haw! Ride Natty Ride...
Okay -- point taken. I'll work on it over the weekend. That was good for a laugh! -Jennifer
I think that Leftback deserves a bit of credit here. On 7/2/10, he called the bottom to within a few tenths of 1%. Then it was, what, Tuesday or Wednesday that he called a short-term top.
3:18/3:20...is that LB?,lol.
DL,
first, yes, Leftback's calls the last few weeks have basically been amazing.
Also, completely agree with your, 3:18, I'm a denialist about "they" changing overall market trends, not so with individual stocks, and I've never really effectively counted waves on any individual stocks, though I've tried.
Bruce,
smart, considering how much it costs to see a movie.
Salute! I-Man
Time for the reverse waterfall trade, I guess...
sweet gurls!!
Yeah ladies... ya know ya wan fi go check the I-Man...
are we going to try to test the trendline from the April top again next week?
Gotta say its pretty relaxing to be able to flip short to long in 2 minutes and play the other side...
JCG news: http://www.footnoted.com/my-big-fat-deal/j-crew-lyonizes-jenna/
And now back the other way... this is real fun.
Funny: "We had a very quick fling that started Tuesday with Citigroup (C) that I am now breaking off. Needless to say, it was unsatisfying. I bought on the "breakout" earlier this week, hoping the JPMorgan (JPM) report would propel it, as well as Citi's report this morning. Neither caught the market's fancy. Yesterday morning when the JPM reaction was "meh" I sold half the position... I thought perhaps I would be proven wrong with the late day Goldman Sachs (GS) news, but financials stink again today. "
http://www.fundmymutualfund.com/2010/07/bookkeeping-ending-affair-with.html
this has the look of a b wave a-b-c down today...the chop down from 11 am on today looks like the dollar did as it was finding a bottom last year.
not saying I'm bullish, but just that we could still get a real ripper higher before this is over...today's pretty bad though internally...
karen, is your link at 3:43 work safe?
If it wasnt for these auto OCO orders (brackets) theres no way I would have the discipline to do this tho.
I-Man,
If you get to be good at this, you could just do it from home.
(Unless they're going to give you some money to run).
yes it is about the salary and promotion of jenna lyons. her $1M bonus, too.
next big dump day I'm bringing out the Tom Petty
Now I'm Freeeeeeee
@ DL
I am doing this from home... but trading the firm's money.
We dont have clients or anything.
I wish I was good... its going to take awhile.
I'm still way too aggressive I'm told.
They're trying to weed it out of me.
Wow, FAZZY up 12%. Folks are enjoying batting the one up and down like a yo-yo lately.
I-Man,
And you spend too much damn time blogging.
Get to work!
They are pouring it on at the close. TICKS at 800 or better.
jennifer -
short of getting a blogger profile, when you post a comment, you can
Select profile...> Name/URL
just type in your name (no need to fill in URL) and your comment will publish as
"jennifer said..."
An observation:
The first week I traded ES, they just kinda had me trade the way I normally would.
I had some huge up days that first week, nothing like that since... but the catch was my losers were way too big.
Since I've been on YM past two weeks, they've really been tightening me up, and although my winners are nowhere near as big trading my way, my clip outs are way smaller.
Incidentally, my success ratio has gone up, trading for smaller chunks.
But the glory aint as great.
72,
I've been meaning to tell you to get a blogger profile too!
what fun is it if you can't put pictures of Timmay shooting hoops next to your name?
or bears...eating fish for that matter
If I ever save up enough cheese to get back to where I was in my Glory Days...
I might start swashbuckling again, but then again, thats how I lost it to begin with.
"everyone gets what they want out of the market." -ed seykota
But 'bat, only lightweights do that.
I had someone flip out on me once for quoting that line....obviously someone that needed an outlet to explain his losses.
or showing off your leopard print bathing suit!
later all.. not a bad day for me heading into a difficult weekend.. check back later!
@ I-Man
play this song while trading and you'll do fine!
@i-Man
Who's "they"?
For all of Jah Drummers:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hW7NwF6Bryc
@ CV
You. Me. I and I.
@I, 3:59
From Prechter's Perspective while talking about his Trading Contest Results of +444% in 4 months:
One of the reasons, I think, I did well in the contest is that I took a lot of losses. That may sound counterproductive, but it's the people who emotionally can't bring themselves to take losses that always lose money. So I took losses all the time. As a matter of fact, about 50% of the trades that I made were losers. I've heard some of the best traders in the world make profits on only 10% or 15% of their trades.
It is the conquest of human nature that separates the winners from the losers. Psychologically speaking, then, money management skills are 100% responsible for an investor's success.
McFearless,
People who criticize technical analysis are almost never willing to discuss the issue of $$ management.
what the heck with XLF today 4%?
anyone still wondering about bank earnings
and he said 90% of his trades were in OEX options mostly buying and selling puts that were ITM.
he was up 380% the first month, his goal was 1,000% and over the next two months his gain fell down to 190%, made a bunch in month 4 to get to the end.
DL,
isn't that the truth, even if you are a fundamental investor, at one point or another to be successfull you have to think technically.
all -
72bat has a "thing" about minimizing his web profile/visibility.
not that "they" don't already know ever'thin' 'bout ever'body. or can find out if "they" really want to.
karen -
so you've always had such good taste in swim apparel.
much prefer the au naturale look you were sporting in yesterday’s avatar. did you see my last comment on last night's thread?
McF,
I'm sure that there are a lot of "closet technicians" among mutual fund and pension fund managers.
When they're feeling bearish, they pile into electric utilities, P&G and Coke (etc.)
Totally...
Its getting to the point where I tempt the market to clip me out.
The best trades work from the get-go, if your entry is solid, then a 3 tick stop should do fine.
Most of my trades start with a 7 tick stop (YM) and a 4 tick stop (ES)... the best ones have stops moved to 1 tick or breakeven w/in seconds of execution.
Sure, you might get clipped more playing that way, but the losses are minimal, and you're out planning the next solid entry.
Letting the market walk into my plan, by using limits is the best thing I ever learned... I used to only use market orders when I traded stocks/etfs.
DL,
I've met a few MF managers over the years, there is no question they have tech analysts, though I'd say some are much more open to using it than others. In public they are all against it, and look at this nice chart here starting in 1980.
This quote from my idol, PTJ, says it all:
"You want to be always in control, never wishing, always trading, and always first and foremost protecting your ass."
I-Man,
I assume you've read Schwagger's book "Market Wizards".
'bat
Hope you know I was joking. I don't have a profile either.
bat,
understandable
all,
gotta roll out, have a good weekend, I'll be around here and there Sat/Sun, hopefully we'll have an update to discuss sunday night and we all know next week should be fun.
Have a good weekend all! Getting interesting.
ben-
if ur still here...,
an email address?
to send you "the night the music stood still" graphic story
@ DL
Practically worn out my copy...
That quote is from the 1987 "Trader" documentary.
I guess the Seykota and PTJ quotes in the same 20 min period gave it away, huh?
:)
An interesting observation:
If minute 1 of minor 1 was 22.99 (1131.23-1108.24) then 1.618 that decline is 37.20.
This decline, thus far, (1098.66-1063.32) is 35.34.
Does it mean anything? Probably not.
However, and this is an obvious statement, if a minor 3 has begun any bounce Monday should be extremely short lived.
ALthough those gaps above are ominous.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1615592320100716
"Speculators short dlr, 1st time since March-CFTC"
Another sign its time for Bucky to run?
I-Love this place btw, have an excellent weekend everyone, get some Sun.
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