Morning Audibles 7.15.10 - The Beatings Will Continue (redux)

Another bad night for BUCKY...







---(from ZH)---
John R Taylor Jr.
Chief Investment Officer


"This week, the US equity market is starting its quarterly earnings ritual and the odds favor a strong performance for the closely followed investor favorites. Although the game is rigged as almost 50% of the corporate managements have adjusted their guidance in the past month trying to lower analysts’ projections down to levels that the companies know they can beat. Despite the opera buffa quality of the process, the S&P 500 companies will still produce a dramatic increase in earnings over the second quarter of 2009. The same can be said of the major European corporations. The increase in corporate earnings and the projection of further increases seems to be universal, and many argue that the positive outlook for thousands of individual companies must sum to an impressive economic recovery."




---


What appears quite obvious, to CV, in the first few days of Q310 is the same phenomenon which occurred in Q210, Q110, Q409, Q309, Q209... 


1. Ramp up equities in the first few trading weeks of the quarter to make your quarterly nut. (If you'd have bought SPX 1010, you'd be up almost 8%)...
2. Slowly distribute those winnings into something relatively safe & liquid for the rest of the quarter. Start with the 3 b's... "bills, bonds, bucky"...
3. Get out of dodge & window dress the last 6 weeks...
4. Indulge yourself in some other "b's... (babes, bikinis, & blow)...


It's still early in Q310... We're just getting to the post FASB bank "earnings" sham, and the high profile tech earnings (whose "guidance", on the conference calls, is always highly correlated to the notion of a weak dollar)...


So in a macro sense, (despite CV's overall BULLISHNESS on the dollar), give it a few more days to get bucky as cheap as possible for the the alpha-dogs to buy at a discount...






then get themselves off to the Hamptons for the rest of the summer and share stories about their mastery of the universe...







437 comments:

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karen said...

CV.. NO. we are right back at the second week of June.. down week coming up..

goog ugly in ah...

Anonymous said...

GS, bastards settle for 500mil. chumpchange. will make it back in couple of days. oligarchs...
DP

CV said...

@McF

Yup... AHAB was being a sleuth & digging up video clips from CV... That pic was from the same festival...

CV said...

@karen

I'm not talking about NEXT WEEK...

I'm talking about tomorrow...

I'd say we put in a high on the stick somewhere north of your top but then pull back...

Next week down...

Anonymous said...

google misses. can't make up the numbers like others. got find a way to cook the books.
DP

McFearless said...

comment at Dan's site:

Almost one billion shares traded in the 4 major banks and most of that in the final half hour. That's out of a total of 4 billion on the entire NYSE. So the net result is the appearance of a high volume green day.

Anonymous said...

Huckabee reminds me of Gomer Pyle, but somewhat smarter

McFearless said...

if I were more brave I would have bought puts on BP at the close.

karen said...

Goldman Sachs to settle with SEC for $550 mln: reports
07/15/2010 04:22:52 PM

pfft! (as I-Man would say..)

CV, i can't believe i didn't notice your avatar! and so nice of you not to be irked at Ahab for the.. ah, exposure.. i certainly know how to keep a secret.. but darn Ahab has yet to learn a little couth from me.. : )

Anonymous said...

I am not sold on BP yet. more shakedown coming.DP

karen said...

Oh, CV, I never told you, but I know someone that knew you back in the day.. Carolyn, is her name.. six degrees, laughing.

McFearless said...

me neither DP, but I'm still not sure enough to take a position one way or the other.

CV said...

@McF

I think they're making too much out of THE BANKS...

All of them had "gap up" opens on Tuesday... None of those gaps closed yesterday... Same with GE...

Today they did...

The shorts were done... They closed up and got out of town...

Little more room to test the upper reaches of the last 3 days on C, BAC, JPM, etc.

So despite GOOG missing... Financials may catch a bid in the morning...

It should be enough for the market to hang up here for another day...

I may go short either tomorrow morning, or into the weekend...

karen said...

well, one thing: the $spx just put in it's 3rd day over the 50 ema.. unlike the third week of june.. though the candles are darn close.. (note: I meant third week of June in my 4:22)

CV said...

@karen

That's what I've been saying all week...

The June SPX candle patterns were identical...

Back then, they were flirting with the gap closure in the 1116-1120 area... On OPEX Friday, it shot up and printed 1131, then promptly left it behind...

I'm guessing we'll see something similar (only 20 points lower)...

I'm guessing 1107-1111, something like that... But that's a VERY ROUGH sketch...

Anonymous said...

Gs to admit no wrong doing. Do they ever do anything wrong? I hate this f*****s!!!!DP

BinT said...

I am going to posit something here...I haven't read anything like this, but my wife and I were discussing 2012, and I wonder....could a strong candidate unseat Obama for the 2012 election? Hiliary? We have a moderate democrat as governor of Tennessee, Phil Bredesen, and he was a businessman before becoming governor. He has led kind of like Clinton did, relatively moderately...

Could this be the first sitting president to lose in the primaries?

Lloyd Blankfein said...

We're doing God's work... leave us alone

Anonymous said...

Do or Die for me. Will put all my shorts 1107-1110. can't wait.DP

karen said...

All, running off to the beach.. hope AR has the heart to do a wrap.. could be fun! Ciao!

CV said...

@BinT

I've said all along that if and when things ever got bad for him HE'D QUIT...

He's a quitter... He only thrives when the red carpet is laid out for him...

So he'll skulk off, and hope to win a few sympathy points...

McFearless said...

Bruce,

Why not? If markets tank in between now and then I'd say count on it.

McFearless said...

simple thought o' the day:

if propping the stock market is supposed to instill confidence, someone may want to let the Beard know that it's only a few households out of the many that is getting truly confident as stocks go up, as it's only a few of the many that have the vast majority of the wealth.

McFearless said...

put this in perspective with all the talk about excessive bearish sentiment:

this is from the 6/13/2005 EWT letter:

figure C-2 shows that starting in 1998, th eyear that Value Line geometric average topped out, advisors became consistently on-balance bullish. amazingly, despite a 50% drop in the S&P and a 78% drop in the NAS, they have stayed that way in all but nine out of 348 weeks.


Me: The reason so many people are so quick to cry too bearish is because they are still stuck in the mindset of what these survey's "should" show after decades of optimism.

CV said...

@McF

As with everything else... It's all a CONFIDENCE game...

If people lose confidence in their leaders, they also lose confidence in most of the things their leaders stand for...

Frankly... The only thing this Administration ever had POSITIVE going for it in the past 18 months was the rally in stocks...

As that wanes... So will the last shred of confidence anybody might have in any of these people...

I don't even blame Obama himself all that much (I just think he's kind of an "arrogant" version of a tool)... I don't think he's EVIL, so much as NAIVE... (he's simply programmed the wrong way)... I doubt he's ever had a single thought of his own...

Bernanke is "want to do good" tool...

Geithner is just "a tool" period... He doesn't mean to be... He just is...

The EVIL, IMO... Is Larry Summers... Now that's an EVIL TOOL right there...

Romer is just there for the free donuts & pastries...

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