AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: My nickname is Event Horizon. I mock thee Turnaround Tuesday.

SPX
Spinning top day (possible morning star? I hope not). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed SMA(89). Further below trend line (3/6/09-7/1/10). Failing the 38.2% retrace (1324.16). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1329.47). QE2infinity. "JBTFD. Any questions?"



DXY
Dark cloud cover day. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (72.70). Tested and failed SMA(89). Failed its 38.2% retrace (75.99). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 74.84).



VIX
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back below SMA(144), SMA(89) & SMA(55). Failing its 23.6% retrace (18.28). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 18.40). Trying to escape the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (1577.40). Held SMA(21). Tested and held its 23.6% retrace (1514.39). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1556.40). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.



AUDJPY
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(21) but failed SMA(144). Still below parallel trend line. Barely holding lower trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.8854).



JNK
Bearish LONG day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed SMA(21). No test of 0.0% retrace (40.93). Failed its 23.6% retrace (40.61). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.49).



10YR YIELD
Bearish long day. Still below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (30.98). Still below the upper trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 32.30).



WTI
Bullish piercing day. Held SMA(144). Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (114.83). Held its 61.8% retrace (98.41). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 111.41).



SILVER
Bullish long day. Held SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). Testing the upper trend line. Held its 61.8% retrace (35.28). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 33.49). ""You want delivery! You can't handle the delivery!"



CRB
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 14.6% retrace (338.44). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 336.48). Still below monthly 3LB reversal price.



RBOB Gasoline
Bullish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Held SMA(89). No test of 0.0% retrace (3.42). Tested and held its 50.0% retrace (2.94). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 3.09).



S&P TMI
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(89). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1540.91). Still below weekly 3LB reversal price. TMI (total market index)= S&P 500 + S&P Completion Index.

WORLD WIDE PREMIERE JULY 1, 2011

Morning Corner 5.24.11

HYG/LQD (weekly info)
WEEKLY REVERSAL new low 0.8331
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
low= 0.8331
rev= 0.8577; mid= 0.8454

IG outperforming HY using this proxy. Is risk finally starting to run for the hills? Previous weekly 3LB reversal were weeks ending 6/22/07, 1/4/08, 6/27/08, 10/10/08, 10/30/09, 5/7/10, 8/20/10 and now 5/20/11. Some of the dates are obvious as to the market conditions. I'll have to look into some of the others.



IWM/SPY (weekly info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=up (1 bar)
high= 0.6349
rev= 0.6013; mid= 0.6181

This proxy for market liquidity is starting to show weakness. It's breaching the lower line of the rising wedge. It's also trading below its weekly 3LB mid. The gravitational pull of the black hole is increasing.



IBEX (weekly info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=up (1 bar)
high= 11068.10
rev= 8923.40; mid= 9995.75

This move down is accelerating. It's below its monthly 3LB mid. It is now below its SMA(144). It's violated the lower trend line. The news from Spain indicates that the Popular Party has won over the Socialists. The Popular Party wants the debts to be recognized and dealt with. So the debts that are off the books are coming back on. Ruh roh?

AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

Creditcane™: Hope you enjoyed the weekend. Welcome back. I apologize for showing up unannounced. Wait…no I don't.

SPX
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Now below SMA(89). Further below trend line (3/6/09-7/1/10). Tested and failed the 38.2% retrace (1324.16). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1335.10). QE2infinity. "JBTFD. Any questions?"



DXY
Bullish long day (confirmed bullish engulfing). Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (72.70). Tested but failed SMA(89) barely. Now above its 38.2% retrace (75.99). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 74.84).



VIX
Bearish long day (after wicked gap higher on open). Midpoint above EMA(10). Above all SMA's. Failed its 23.6% retrace (18.28). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 18.40). Trying to escape the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (1577.40). Held SMA(21). Tested and held its 23.6% retrace (1514.39). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1556.40). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bearish short day (confirmed bearish engulfing). Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below SMA(55). Held SMA(89). Still below its 76.4% retrace (1.4346). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.4323).



JNK
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Back below SMA(21). No test of 0.0% retrace (40.93). Failed its 14.6% retrace (40.73). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 40.49).



10YR YIELD
Bullish long day. Still below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held 0.0% retrace (30.98). Still below the upper trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 32.30).



WTI
Bearish long day (failure of hammer and bullish harami from Friday). Failed SMA(144). Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (114.83). Failed its 61.8% retrace (98.41). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 111.41).



SILVER
Doji day. Failed SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failed the upper trend line. Failed its 61.8% retrace (35.28). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 35.29). ""You want delivery! You can't handle the delivery!"



BKX
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. Failing its 50.0% retrace (50.11). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 51.81).



EEM
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's. Now below its 61.8% retrace (46.61). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 47.63).

WORLD WIDE PREMIERE JULY 1, 2011

Music heard over the loudspeakers at the NYSE...

Morning Corner 5.23.11

EURUSD
-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=down (2 bars)
low= 1.4100
rev= 1.4820; mid= 1.4460

EURUSD is trying not to break below the high close from Nov 2010 (1.4009). That would lead to a retest of the low coos from Jan 2011 (1.2908). A close this week below 1.4100 will have the EURUSD trending down on the weekly 3LB. It's also below the monthly 3LB mid indicating further weakness.



Athens
new low 1297.36
trend=down
low= 1297.36
rev= 1431.33; mid= 1364.35


The problems in Greece are approaching critical mass. The event horizon has been breached. The Greece Stock Market is now trading lower than when it did when it joined the euro. Austerity isn't working no matter what the pundits may be saying. Additional measures of austerity will make matters worse for Greece.



IBEX (weekly info)
-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=up (1 bar)
high= 11068.10
rev= 8923.40; mid= 9995.75

This move down is about to accelerate. It's below its monthly 3LB mid. It's sitting precariously on its SMA(144). It's about to violate the lower trend line. Plus there's the rumor that there is a lot of debt that is not on the books that may be brought to light.

Sunday Evening Post: Survived Rapture Baby!

Hello All,

This commentary covers all five markets we've discussed in the past few weeks:  S&P, DXY, Gold, Copper and Silver.  I've identified key supports and resistance points on all these markets within this document, so I won't reiterate them here now.

Enjoy.
Market Commentary 22May11



Addendum:

So, May 21st, Rapture Day, has come and gone and we're all still alive--which is awesome!

CNN has an article highlighting what the "faithful" are doing now as well as other "Doomsday Predictions" from the past.  It's pretty good:  http://religion.blogs.cnn.com/2011/05/22/life-goes-on-doomsday-believers-on-the-morning-after/

And, with a hat tip to Wunsacon, here's George Carlin's take on Religion.  It seems relevant to this weekend's Rapture prediction.