AmenRa's Corner 8.30.12

Jackson Hole Aug 31, 2012: This is a hologram. The real Bernanke is hiding in a country with no extradition.


Creditcane™: REPETERE AD INFINITUM: CAVEAT EMPTOR.


SPX
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(21). Still failing the 0.0% retrace (1419.15). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1418.16). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held the 61.8% minor retrace (81.51). Still failing SMA(89). No dally 3LB (reversal is 82.64).



VIX
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(55). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (14.27). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 16.35).



GOLD
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed its 50.0% retrace (1668.00). Tested and failed SMA(233). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1642.90). Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(89). Tested and failed its 38.2% minor retrace (1.2522). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.2297).



JNK
Doji day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Holding above its 50.0% minor retrace (39.86). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 39.89).



10YR YIELD
Bearish short day. Still failing SMA(21,89). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing its 38.2% minor retrace (17.47). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 16.66).



WTI
Bearish short day. Tested and held SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace (95.94). New low on dally 3LB (reversal is 97.26).



SILVER
Bearish short day. Tested and failed SMA(233). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still failing its 50.0% minor retrace (31.10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 29.64).



BKX
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(21). Holding above its 61.8% retrace (46.14). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 47.47).



HYG/LQD
Bullish short day. Tested and held SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 38.2% minor retrace (0.7678). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7738).



COPPER
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(89). Tested and held its 61.8% minor retrace (3.430). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 3.546).



AAPL
Bearish short day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Now failing its 0.0% retrace (674.88). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 648.11).



TLT
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above SMA(21). Tested and held its 38.2% minor retrace (125.64). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 122.05).







IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.

6 comments:

qqqqtrader said...

still short SPX but not convinced we'll have a drastic downturn... will prolly cover soon... maybe I'm waiting for what may unfold @ J-Hole mañana.

AmenRa said...

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20120831a.htm

Conclusion
Early in my tenure as a member of the Board of Governors, I gave a speech that considered options for monetary policy when the short-term policy interest rate is close to its effective lower bound.31 I was reacting to common assertions at the time that monetary policymakers would be "out of ammunition" as the federal funds rate came closer to zero. I argued that, to the contrary, policy could still be effective near the lower bound. Now, with several years of experience with nontraditional policies both in the United States and in other advanced economies, we know more about how such policies work. It seems clear, based on this experience, that such policies can be effective, and that, in their absence, the 2007-09 recession would have been deeper and the current recovery would have been slower than has actually occurred.

As I have discussed today, it is also true that nontraditional policies are relatively more difficult to apply, at least given the present state of our knowledge. Estimates of the effects of nontraditional policies on economic activity and inflation are uncertain, and the use of nontraditional policies involves costs beyond those generally associated with more-standard policies. Consequently, the bar for the use of nontraditional policies is higher than for traditional policies. In addition, in the present context, nontraditional policies share the limitations of monetary policy more generally: Monetary policy cannot achieve by itself what a broader and more balanced set of economic policies might achieve; in particular, it cannot neutralize the fiscal and financial risks that the country faces. It certainly cannot fine-tune economic outcomes.

As we assess the benefits and costs of alternative policy approaches, though, we must not lose sight of the daunting economic challenges that confront our nation. The stagnation of the labor market in particular is a grave concern not only because of the enormous suffering and waste of human talent it entails, but also because persistently high levels of unemployment will wreak structural damage on our economy that could last for many years.

Over the past five years, the Federal Reserve has acted to support economic growth and foster job creation, and it is important to achieve further progress, particularly in the labor market. Taking due account of the uncertainties and limits of its policy tools, the Federal Reserve will provide additional policy accommodation as needed to promote a stronger economic recovery and sustained improvement in labor market conditions in a context of price stability.

AmenRa said...

Basically nothing new from Bernanke. Similar wording as the FOMC statement. Markets are on their own.

AmenRa said...

Missed this part of the speech:

"A second potential cost of additional securities purchases is that substantial further expansions of the balance sheet could reduce public confidence in the Fed's ability to exit smoothly from its accommodative policies at the appropriate time."

AmenRa said...

Odd that the market edged higher while TSY YLDS plummet.

AmenRa said...

Nuevo.

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