GERMANY AND THE BUNDESBANK GREATEST NEMESIS
Creditcane™: I'm flying to the ECB meeting tomorrow. See you in the morning.
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Holding above the 38.2% minor retrace (1372.42). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1337.89). QE2infinity.
Bullish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above the 38.2% minor retrace (82.46). Tested and failed SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 83.71).
Doji day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(144). Tested and failed its 61.8% minor retrace (18.81). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 15.45).
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed its 61.8% retrace (1605.10). Tested and failed SMA(89). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1638.90). Must have the precious.
Bearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(21). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (1.2154). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.2071).
Bearish short day (hanging man?). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Now failing its 50.0% minor retrace (39.86). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.33).
Bullish long day. Tested and held SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (14.40). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 14.04).
Spinning top day. Tested and held SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 50.0% minor retrace (88.56). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 92.97).
Bearish short day. Tested and failed SMA(55). Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 100.0% retrace (26.66). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 26.29).
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(21,144). Still failing its 61.8% retrace (46.14). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 46.33).
Bullish long day. Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (0.7536). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7501).
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(55). Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (3.359). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 3.305).
Bearish short day. Tested and held SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 38.2% minor retrace (592.47). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 614.32).
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(21). Still failing its 0.0% retrace (132.04). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 133.16).
IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.
19 comments:
http://www.testosteronepit.com/home/2012/7/31/is-germany-preparing-for-a-spanish-default.html
quote:
"So the best solution on the Spanish wish list would be for the ECB or the bailout funds (the EFSF and later the ESM) to buy Spanish bonds, either in the secondary markets to force yields down, or directly, but without any bailout conditions—precisely what the German Bundesbank and the Ministry of Finance have vowed to oppose: bailouts would come with conditions, namely budget cuts and structural reforms.
Alas, as long as “el todopoderoso” Schäuble demands conditions, Spain won’t request a bailout. Not until the very last minute. A game of chicken, with default as consequence. Geithner was probably telling de Guindos to back off and request a formal bailout and get it over with as soon as possible to avoid a crisis whose effluent might drift across the Atlantic and seep into the shaky US economy. President Obama’s reelection would be at stake.
But then Deutsche Bank released its earnings. They weren’t pretty; 1,900 jobs would be cut. And ominously, the bank, which walks in lockstep with the German Ministry of Finance, had dumped 37% of the Spanish sovereign debt still remaining on its books. By the end of June, it only held €873 million, down from €1.4 billion three months earlier. A process that is likely to continue—now that default and October had appeared in the same paragraph in Spanish papers. And so the bank is walking away from Spain, in synch with el todopoderoso Schäuble’s rejection of Spain’s wish list.
Deutsche Bank isn’t the only one. Capital flight continues to set new records in Spain. According to the Bank of Spain’s just released Balance of Payments, €41.3 billion left the country in May, bringing the first five months of the year to €163 billion. Eleven consecutive months of declines! For a total of €259 billion. 21.6% of GDP. And those are the people who know best."
Draghi has a lot of begging to do: http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/08/problems-in-spain-revenues-collapse.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MishsGlobalEconomicTrendAnalysis+(Mish%27s+Global+Economic+Trend+Analysis)
Problems in Spain: Revenues Collapse, State Spends Nearly Twice as Much as Revenues Collected in First Half
quote:
"Or what is the same, the central government already has obligations amounting to 87.967 billion. The resources, however, only amounted to 44.879 billion (-4.1%), which means that during the first six months of the year the state has spent (or is obliged to spend) almost double what it has collected in revenues."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-raises-pressure-euro-zone-013824876.html?l=1
U.S. raises pressure for euro zone crisis action
quote:
The Bundesbank released on Wednesday a June 29 interview for an in-house publication in which Weidmann said governments expected too much from the central bank, and what they wanted did not always make economic sense.
"Politicians overestimate the central bank's capacity and place too many demands of it," he said. "Whether it's about interest rates or any sort of special measures, in the end it always comes down to the same thing: trying to rope the central bank into meeting fiscal policy objectives.
Weidmann said the Bundesbank would continue to defend its positions firmly "so that the (European) monetary union remains a stability union".
FTR the SPX/GOLD ratio is only +1.34% from the 3/31/09 close. And that's after all of the QE's and Twists.
Draghi: It's up to the governments to give the ESM a banking license.
Ring ring. Hello Katherine.
Draghi: If countries need or want EFSF they have to ask for it. (Hint: Spain)
Oh yeah the Dark "Knight" has fallen.
Get it? Market maker Knight Capital and dark pools.
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-08-01/survey-drought-dragging-down-midwest-economy
"OMAHA, Neb. (AP) — The ongoing drought, combined with global economic turmoil, is hurting business in nine Midwest and Plains states and boosting worries about the possibility of another recession, according to a monthly report released Wednesday.
The region's overall economic index for July plunged below growth neutral for the first time since 2008. The index hit 48.7, compared with 57.2 in June.
The survey of business leaders and supply managers uses a collection of indexes ranging from zero to 100. Any score above 50 suggests growth while a score below 50 suggests decline for that factor."
..Those who continue to argue that the US isn't entering a recession need to reconsider...
factory orders down .5%
Why should we be any different?
Market almost back to unchanged. GTFOOH. Must be a stick save for the EU markets since most were down at least 5%.
Spain 10yr back at 7%.
Italy 10yr back to 6.21%.
BinT
The drought is going to hurt us more than people think.
Considering what happened to MFG and PFG how long before clients pull their funds from Knight Capital? There's no way their clients want to see their money get locked up.
Spain 10yr closed at 7.17%
Italy 10yr closed at 6.33%
Spain is still to proud to beg
BWAHAHAHA. California put all of its hope and dreams in the Facebook IPO. Suckers.
I see the BTFD crowd still haven't learned their lesson.
Why is VXX still trading below VIX? It crossed lower on 4/30/12.
is Copper fixin' to go below ~3.20?
ibid.
AAIP
If copper takes out 3.245 then it's a possibility.
New thread.
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