Updated here are some thoughts on the S&P500, DXY and Gold.
The markets are now getting interesting again.
Hope everyone is well. I'm heading out for my last long vacation of the year...going on a week long cruise with four other families (local friends)...so it should be nuts. Everyone take care!
Best, -AT
Market Commentary 22JUL12
Bearish short day (YGBFKM). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(21). Tested and failed the 50.0% minor retrace (1357.98). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 1376.51). QE2infinity.
Bearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(144,233). Tested and failed its 61.8% minor retrace (18.81) and its 50.0% minor retrace (20.22). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 15.45).
Takuri day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (1.2154). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.2297).
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(21). Tested and held its 38.2% minor retrace (39.62). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.49).
Bullish long day. Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (14.40). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 14.67).
Bearish long day. Tested and held SMA(55). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (88.24). Dally 3LB reversal down (reversal is 92.97).
Takuri day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Now failing all SMA's. Still failing its 61.8% retrace (46.14). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 46.33).
Bullish long day. Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 0.0% retrace (0.7536). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7640).
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(21). Tested and failed its 61.8% minor retrace (3.430). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 3.305).
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(89). Tested and failed its 61.8% retrace (0.8156). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7927).
27 comments:
Weekly 3LB Update 7/20/12
US 10yr yield hit a new low of 1.4380%. Ruh roh.
Actually the low was 1.43480%.
Overnigh Spain 10yr had a high of 7.565% and Italy 10yr of 6.426%.
US 10yr had a low of 1.396%.
EURUSD low 1.2082 and EURCHF low 1.2005.
Italy banned short selling of financial stocks.
Spain banned short selling of stocks and OTC derivatives.
What was the definition of insanity again?
Oddly enough by banning short selling you eliminate the ability to hedge or protect your portfolio from down moves. So what would be the other option? SELLING the portfolio itself. And since there are no shorts to buy back there is no floor.
US 10yr closed at new low 1.436%. PPT still trying to push market higher. Figures.
Amazing how the DJ can go from down $239.16 (-1.865%) to only down $87.90 (-0.69%) on NOTHING. Not even a BS rumor.
Well at least there was finally a three digit down day in the Dow. Does the PPT need viagra now?
Fed's Raskin: No government backstop for banks that do prop trading
(Reuters) - Banks that trade for their own accounts should not benefit from the implicit backing of taxpayers, and Wall Street's opposition to new rules curbing such activities is unfounded, a top Federal Reserve official said on Monday.
Federal Reserve Governor Sarah Raskin, a former Maryland financial regulator, said the notion that derivatives markets enhance firms' ability to raise capital was questionable.
"I view proprietary trading as an activity of low or no real economic value that should not be part of any banking model that has an implicit government backstop," Raskin told students at the Graduate School of Banking at Colorado in remarks made available in Washington.
"Much of this so-called liquidity, especially in opaque over-the-counter markets, is potentially illusory and destabilizing, especially during adverse market conditions, which does not benefit the public."
Added a few charts.
Spain 10yr closed at 7.5%.
Italy 10yr closed at 6.34%.
US 10yr closed at 1.435% (overnight has it at 1.4229%).
Who da hell is selling USTs? Someone (aka US Treasury or Fed) must be trying to keep the yields from making new all time lows.
US Markit Manufacturing PMI flash misses coming in at 51.8. Previous was 52.5 and consensus was 52.0.
EURUSD down, WTO down, DXY up, USTs down somehow edging futures higher. Go figure. When Timmaay is on the boob tube there's intervention happening.
Oh yeah UPS missed on top and bottom plus a negative outlook for the year.
HPI at 0.8%, consensus 0.6%, previous 0.7% (revised from 0.8%).
Richmond Fed Mfg -17, consensus 0, previous -3
...see the picture of "raining fire" above for todays trading theme.
BinT
You were right. A 1.3 handle on the 10yr is imminent. Unfortunately for the Fed these low yields limit what they can do.
This comment is priceless (@ZH): http://www.zerohedge.com/news/troika-says-greece-needs-another-debt-restructuring-round#comment-2645610
US 10yr new low 1.396%
Bernanke just left to change his underwear.
Spain 10yr closed at 7.62% and Italy at 6.60%.
Yeah the Troika just called their travel agent for the upcoming visits.
Less than an hour to go and the 10yr closed at 1.404%. Fed made a few calls to PDs: "DO NOT let this thing close below 1.400%!!! Or no QE until post election! Got it?"
Also finally looks like there will be a close below the 6/29/12 (EU Summit) low.
...and here we go with the PPT again.
Oddly enough I don't care about analysts estimates. I prefer Y-o-Y. Companies need to make at least $0.10. Anything else is fudging the numbers to meet estimates.
SPX trying to hold the 50SMA. The Troika reported that Greece has failed to meet over 90% of its requirements. USTs at all time low yields. Spain and Italy about to invoke the Troika. China has less reason to get involved since the Markit flash PMI increases M-o-M and is almost out of contraction. Yeah, the 50 is real important (snark).
AAPL missed (analysts estimates). Hedge fund bloodbath has commenced.
They still made $9.32 vs $7.79 a year earlier. That's still a 19.64% increase. Explain how bad AAPL did to UPS or MCD. Can't blame overseas market since all are global.
New thread.
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