Sunday's Week Ahead Look

People tend to think traders like "volatility."  This is not true.  They like a "trend."

There are old traders and bold traders...there are no old and bold traders.  This market has become hugely volatile and unpredictable. I'm staying away from the S&P 500 until things become a little clearer.

Market Commentary 1JUL12

Spain to Italy....."I'm da Boss."

  That Spanish beatdown reminds of another epic mismatch...via Tosh.0


AmenRa said...

Andy T

After that move on Friday I think many traders are taking a "wait and see" attitude. I still think it was a setup. The EU knew the world was watching and longs have been getting killed. A little "good news" would initiate a short squeeze from hell and allow the longs the make their 2Q. The problem is that the so called good news has a lot of holes. It isn't as beneficial as it appears. Germany just took the EU's queen and is now one to three moves from mate.

Andy T said...

I tend to agree with that. Also, it was a friday and end of quarter. So, the whole thing was a bit fishy....BUT

It was a much bigger move than i would have expected ... across the board.

It surprised me.

Andy T said...

Random aside...I'm a California guy orginally....grew up on Carl's Junior....

They've been building this new fast food place very close to's a friggin' Carl's Junior....

I looked up "Carl's Junior Texas" and found this blog article...

Way to go California. Probably just a "threat" to get some better treatment, but it's interesting nonetheless to hear a CEO speak out.

AmenRa said...

Swiss PMI 48.1 prior 45.4
Germany PMI 45.0 prior 45.2
EMU PMI 45.1 prior 45.1
EMU Unemployment Rate 11.1% prior 11.0%
US PMI Index 52.5 prior 54.0

AmenRa said...

Andy T

I can see why businesses are leaving CA for greener pastures. A difference of $250k to build a restaurant and 1.5 mths versus 8mths-2yrs for licenses. I'd move too.

AmenRa said...


PMI 49.7 prior 53.5
Employment 56.6 prior 56.9
Prices 37.0 prior 47.5
Exports 47.5 53.5
New Orders/Inventories 1.086 prior 1.307

AmenRa said...

Why does every bad economic data point mean that the market now expects some form of fed stimulus? I'm sick and tired of seeing those headlines.

Matthew said...

The market does expect new easing and, in my opinion, new easing is coming. Every bad data point just influences how soon it comes.

Given the reduced marginal impact of each subsequent easing, I have a suspicion that these "bad data = more easing" rallies indicate a fear that the next easing will be more ephemeral than the last; so participants are trying to front run the easing to catch that initial pop (and sell into it) to make a quick buck before the ensuing rollover.

We got a new batch of summer interns last month. One of them actually trades his tiny book during the school year. He is [rightfully] very bearish. I was telling him 2 weeks ago that the short term risk is to the upside in this market and he couldn't believe his ears when I told him he needs to play this from the long side (especially given how bearish I am).

We live in interesting times.

AmenRa said...

I don't care what the SNB says. They are getting decimated trying to hold the peg.

AmenRa said...


"Real Impossibility…

Despite progress, European leaders refuse to acknowledge that a portion of the debt of the peripheral nations is unrecoverable. None of steps announced improves the sustainability of the debt levels of the affected countries, their access to markets or cost of borrowing in the medium to long term. Ultimately, it is not possible to solve the problem of excessive indebtedness with more debt or by simply changing the lender.

Austerity dooms Europe to a prolonged contained depression as the debt burden is worked off. The alternative, a debt write-off, would result in significant loss of wealth for the mainly European lenders and investors triggering an economic contraction and prolonged period of economic stagnation. There are now limited policy options available.

For the moment, investors and the non-German members of the Euro-Zone are celebrating. It would be wise to remember American writer Edgar Howe’s observation: “there is nothing so well known as that we should not expect something for nothing – but we all do and call it hope.”"

BinT said...

Well, I have only one stock at present..DG..and less than 6 figures of that... is one of those "Damn, these guys in my neighborhood are doing very well" kind of thingys... now seems every little hole in the wall in east Tennessee has one of these places, and they all seem to be busy..

..Guess we'll see..

AmenRa said...

New thread. Enjoy the holiday everyone.

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