Draghi should be heeding their advice.
Creditcane™: Jawboning will only make matters worse when I arrive.
Bullish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(21,144). Tested and held the 50.0% minor retrace (1357.98). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1372.78). Back above lower trendline. QE2infinity.
Bearish long day (confirmed bearish engulfing). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing the 0.0% retrace (84.00). Tested and failed SMA(21). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 84.00).
Doji day (confirmed bearish harami). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(21). Tested and failed its 61.8% minor retrace (18.81). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 15.45).
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its 61.8% retrace (1600.40). Tested and held SMA(89). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1634.20). Must have the precious.
Bullish long day (confirmed bullish engulfing). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(21). Tested and held its 0.0% retrace (1.2154). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 1.2071).
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(21). Tested and held its 38.2% minor retrace (39.62). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.85).
Doji day. Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (14.40). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 14.64).
Spinning top day. Holding above SMA(55). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its 50.0% minor retrace (88.24). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 92.97).
Bullish short day. Tested and held SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 100.0% retrace (26.66). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 26.29).
Bullish long day. Midpoint at EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(21). Still failing its 61.8% retrace (46.14). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 46.33).
Bullish long day. Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 0.0% retrace (0.7536). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7588).
Doji day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(21,55). Tested and held its 50.0% minor retrace (3.359). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 3.305).
Bearish short day. Tested and failed SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (577.84). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 614.32).
Spinning day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(55) but failed SMA(21). Tested and held its 61.8% minor retrace (38.06). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.08).
IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.
5yr 5yr Forward Breakeven
I read somewhere that until this approaches 2.00% the Fed will stand pat. We'll see next week.
11 comments:
Couldn't resist. Added FB. Not enough info for monthly 3LB so there's only weekly and daily info.
Spain 10yr from 7.36% to 6.93% due to Draghi. Anyone think that was enough of a move to help Spain? Hint: NO.
The mortgage market has positioned itself for more easing from the Fed and it looks like a lot of risk assets have too.
I can't really take punts anymore due to ridiculous compliance policy, but I feel like putting on some risk ahead of Jackson Hole would be appropriate.
Germany says will do all it can for euro, just like ECB
(Reuters) - Germany said on Friday it stood ready, just like the European Central Bank, to do all in its power to ensure the survival of the euro but it reiterated its opposition to granting a banking license to the euro zone's bailout funds.
"The president of the ECB said the ECB will do all that is necessary to maintain the euro and the German government will do all that is politically required to maintain the euro," government spokesman Georg Streiter told a news briefing.
"The ECB makes its contribution and the German government makes its contribution," Streiter added.
Finance ministry spokeswoman Marianne Kothe reiterated Berlin's view that the EU treaty does not allow the EFSF bailout fund to receive a banking license - one idea mooted to relieve market pressure on heavily indebted states such as Spain.
Kothe said Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble would issue a statement later on Friday about the general situation in the euro zone, where yields on Spanish and Italian debt have soared this week amid resumed fears for the future of the euro zone.
Spain discusses state bailout; ECB seen writing off Greek debt
(Reuters) - Spain has at last conceded it may need a state bailout and policymakers are considering writing down Greek debt to their central banks, European officials said on Friday, as markets anticipated radical new action to pull the continent out of its debt maelstrom.
European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, who on Thursday pledged to do whatever was necessary to protect the euro zone from collapse, is also set to meet Germany's Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann to discuss a raft of other measures to address the region's crisis, according to a Bloomberg report.
Citing two central bank officials, the report said Draghi's proposal involves Europe's rescue funds buying government bonds on the primary market, flanked by ECB purchases on the secondary market to ensure transmission of its record low interest rates.
(Emphasis mine) This has been discussed many times and the answer is still NO on ECB buying bonds. What will it take for Draghi to get it?
Of course this story posted at 4:05PM est. Bastids.
No corner today. SPX has a weekly reversal up but the DXY, EURUSD, JNK and VIX didn't move that much. Today was also the highest volume on SPY since 5/18/12.
I think that the Street has been lifted on its entire inventory of IGs. I wouldn't be surprised if they wait until the next puke to rebuild.
Weekly 3LB Update 7/27/12
Dallas Fed -13.2, previous 5.8, consensus 3.0
Another big miss.
The only internal number holding up the market is new high/new low (4.66). A/D under 1.00, Vol up/Vol down under 1.00, 10yr at 1.510% (-2.89%). Bankers must be burning incense at the altars of the Fed and ECB.
New thread.
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