"Whew that was close!"
Creditcane™: Even the Fed minutes indicates that there will not be any Fed stimulus.
Doji day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(21,55). Tested and failed the 61.8% minor retrace (1343.55). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1354.68). QE2infinity.
Bullish short day (possible hammer but better reversal signal if a down day). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held the 0.0% retrace (83.54). Still above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 82.81).
Doji day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(89). Tested and failed its 61.8% minor retrace (18.81). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 16.80).
Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing its 61.8% retrace (1600.40). Now failing all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1634.20). Must have the precious.
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing all SMA's. Still failing its 0.0% minor retrace (1.2373). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.2401).
Bullish short day (didn't confirm bearish engulfing). Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Holding above its 61.8% retrace (38.86). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 39.19).
Bearish short day. Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (14.71). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 17.65).
Bullish long day. Holding above SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed its 38.2% minor retrace (86.56). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 77.69).
Spinning top day. Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above its 100.0% retrace (26.66). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 26.29).
Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(21,55). Still failing its 61.8% retrace (46.14). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 46.08).
Bearish short day. Now failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Now failing its 38.2% minor retrace (0.7678). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7754).
Bullish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(21). Tested and held its 61.8% minor retrace (3.430). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 3.305).
Bearish short day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 38.2% minor retrace (592.47). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 592.52).
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(21,233). Holding above its 50.0% retrace (0.7978). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7914).
IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.
10 comments:
Is it me or are they protecting the open/low from 6/29/12? Trying to keep the EU Summit hope alive?
Lloyds could face £1.5bn claim over Libor - analysts
Lloyds Banking Group could have to pay out more than £1bn over claims it was involved in the manipulation of Libor, according to City analysts.
In a note to clients this morning, analysts at broker Liberum Capital warned the market reaction to Lloyds’ potential exposure had been “too sanguine” and said the bank could face having to pay out at least £1.5bn.
Liberum said investors were under the “mistaken impression” that because of the relatively small size of Lloyds’ derivatives book, which at £2.1 trillion is less than a tenth the size of Barclays’, the bank was “relatively insulated from this issue”.
"The potential liability is likely to extend well beyond each bank's own customers. On that basis, the market reaction appears too sanguine regarding Lloyds' potential exposure," said Liberum.
A payout of £1.5bn would be equal to about 7pc of the lender’s market value and is arrived at by calculating the likelihood of successful litigation against the breakdown of the cost for the 16 banks implicated in Libor rigging.
RBS fights to keep its Libor records secret
RBS, the partly-nationalised bank, is one of a number of institutions being investigated for possible rigging of Libor, the inter-bank interest rate, a probe which last week saw high street rivals Barclays fined £290m and Bob Diamond, its chief executive, forced to resign.
Now it can be revealed that RBS is battling a court ruling to hand over confidential internal documents which could contain evidence that its traders were also actively involved in the manipulation of the inter bank rate.
RBS has been resisting for more than a year investigators pursuing documents which allegedly detail wrongdoing by its staff.
The move represents a potential political embarrassment with George Osborne, the Chancellor, potentially facing questions over why a bank ultimately controlled by the Treasury, is attempting to resist international law enforcement investigations into the practice.
A senior Canadian judge has ordered the bank, and several of its rivals to hand over evidence to investigators from the Canadian Competition Bureau, a law enforcement agency which protects the country’s business and money markets from fraud.
Merkel breaks German law on ESM rescue
You can see why Chancellor Angela Merkel and Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble are back-pedalling so frantically over the EU summit deal.
While Mrs Merkel seemingly agreed to let the European Stability Mechanism (bail-out fund) rescue banks directly – starting with Spain – she did not have the authority from the Bundestag to do so.
Indeed, she violated a categorical prohibition by the budget committee or Haushaltsausschuss.
Here is the wording of Amendment 2 to the finance law or Finanzierungsgesetz on the 26th June, the day before the Brussels summit, sent to me by a very well-informed German reader.
Finanzhilfen zur Rekapitalisierung von Finanzinstituten einer Vertragspartei schlieffen Finanzhilfen an eine Einrichtung zur Stabilisierung des Finanzsektors MIT ein, wenn die sektorspezifische Konditionalität gewährleistet ist, keine direkten Bankrisiken übernommen werden und die Rückzahlung durch eine Garantie der Vertragspartei gesichert ist.
It states that the ESM may not be used to recapitalise banks directly. Any such loans must guaranteed by the signatory to the treaty, ie the sovereign state, piling up further public debt.
Chancellor Merkel is wading into deep waters here. The constitutional court ruled last September that the government must obtain prior approval from the Bundestag before committing to further bail-outs – at least that is how I understood it, as did the key committees in parliament (German readers will correct me if I am wrong).
She has basically overstepped her authority.
It's official. The open/low from 6/29/12 has been taken out. The EU Summit is now priced out of the market.
I wonder how many BTFD yesterday?
I did RA, and I did the same today. Lots of select individual names, many chart set ups out there imo.
My perspective will probably have to change if we are to have a sharp drop below the 1306-1310 range on $spx
I'm watching lots of stuff, among others:
http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/content/blogs/bullish+sentiment+near+historic+lows+may+offer+a+buying+opportunity/trading_floor_blog.aspx?single=true&blogid=111730
b22
There's only so many times they'll be able to reverse these down moves. There's no more QE, US deficit on pace to break $1T again, EU problems not fixed. I can understand looking at individual names though. Many have their own cycle and don't necessarily follow the larger group.
10 year 1.48...
Ah, to be a safe haven currency...
What a country!
...
going to 1.25 "they" say....and if they do, the bet will be just fine...
BinT
The 10yr low of 1.44% won't hold for long.
New thread.
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