AmenRa's Corner 5.4.12




Creditcane™: Can you hear me now?!?


SPX
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(21,55). Tested and failed the 38.2% minor retrace (1372.42). Failing the lower trend line (10/4-11/28). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1419.04). Had a weekly 3Lb reversal down. QE2infinity.
DXY
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Failing the 61.8% minor retrace (79.60). Tested and held SMA(21,55). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 80.08). Still below weekly 3LB mid.
VIX
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(89). Tested and held its 61.8% minor retrace (18.81). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 20.39).
GOLD
Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing its 50.0% retrace (1661.00). Failing SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1706.50). Still below its monthly 3LB mid. Must have the precious.
EURUSD
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Now failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (1.3142). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3465).
JNK
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Tested and failed its 38.2% minor retrace (39.62). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.33).
10YR YIELD
Bearish long day. Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (18.96). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 19.52).
WTI
Bearish long day. Tested and failed SMA(144). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 50.0% retrace (99.04). Dally 3LB reversal down (reversal is 106.16). Back below the monthly 3LB mid.
SILVER
Bullish short day. Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 61.8% minor retrace (29.92). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 31.12).
BKX
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(55). Still failing its 38.2% minor retrace (49.10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 49.00).
HYG/LQD
Bearish short day. Tested and failed SMA(55,89). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace (0.7808). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7676).
COPPER
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(21). Failing its 50.0% retrace (3.846). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 3.843).
AAPL
Bearish long day. Tested and failed SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (577.84). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 560.28). Closed rising window (3/13/12-3/14/12).
RBOB Gasoline
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(144). Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace (3.02). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 3.10).
COP (Conoco Phillips)
WEEKLY CONFIRMATION new low 53.17
trend=no
direction=down (2 bars)
low= 53.17
rev= 59.19; mid=56.18

monthly info -no change (above mid)
trend=no; direction=down (2 bars)
low= 48.27; rev= 60.87; mid= 54.57




IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.

18 comments:

Anonymous said...

Creditcane™: Can you hear me now?!?

AR,

no doubt..~

AAIP

BinT said...

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/278412e6-9538-11e1-8faf-00144feab49a.html?ftcamp=published_links%2Frss%2Fworld_uk%2Ffeed%2F%2Fproduct#axzz1u0HGXfcR

Wealthy French eye move across the Channel

Andy T said...

@Bruce.

Shocker.

People leave the country when you take their money.

Andy T said...

The whole oil complex felt punk last week.

Very soft feel and it looks a bit like a break down on the WTI. Should get a bounce back early this week, but energy feels very weak right now.

Something tells me LUV gets rocked on their fuel hedging strategy this time around...they'll go 'full circle' on the ol "commodity hedging experience."

Andy T said...

Heading to Findlay, OH today to take some guys golfing tomorrow. Why does a big oil company remain in Findlay, OH? Planes, trains and automobiles to get there....

AmenRa said...

Weekly 3LB Update 5/4/12

AmenRa said...

Hollande wins the election in France.

The anti bailout parties win in Greece.

Andy T said...

Amazing how bustling and full these airports are... what recession?

AmenRa said...

Currently a bloodbath (bear feeding frenzy) in futures. Will it hold to the open or will the bears' stomach be too full?

Matthew said...

Hope you had a good outing with the Marathon suits :D They should move to Houston, like everyone else.

Let me know when you decide to get in on COP. I like the story, but I'm a little skittish about getting into energy at this moment.

AmenRa said...

SNB keeping busy tonight as EURCHF had a low of 1.1904 so far this evening.

BinT said...

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/07/business/stock-trading-remains-in-a-slide-after-08-crisis.html?_r=2&ref=business

Stock Trading Is Still Falling After ’08 Crisis

AmenRa said...

Effin futures are well of their overnight lows. What was the catalyst? They don't believe the elections will cause too much trouble?

Matthew said...

LOL! Check out the run-up in U.S. equity futures. I guess we are back to 1. Bad news means more QE and 2. Good news is good news.

The risk assets markets can climb ANY wall of worry.

AmenRa said...

Matthew

There can be no QE in the US until the FOMC Dec meeting. The Fed doesn't want to lose its independence by appearing to influence the election. There will be happy talk in the EU but that's all it will be. The debt isn't going anywhere.

AmenRa said...

Tossed in a chart of COP for those who might be interested.

Anonymous said...

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=VHC

this Trade has been working well..

~~
you could these off
2.50 S120511C00002500 0.03 Up 0.01 0.02 0.03 296 1,965

for ~1%, expiry Friday..
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=S&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

AAIP

AmenRa said...

new thread

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This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.