"I'm still HUNGRY!!!"
Creditcane™: These are only the ads at the start of the movie. The main feature has yet to begin.
Inverted hammer day (prefer a higher close though). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing SMA(89). Tested and failed the 61.8% minor retrace (1343.55). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1353.39). QE2infinity.
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed the 0.0% retrace (81.50). Still above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 80.30). Still above weekly 3LB mid.
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(144). Tested and held its 38.2% minor retrace (21.62). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 18.81).
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing its 61.8% retrace (1598.10). Failing all SMA's. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1584.00). Still below its monthly 3LB mid. Must have the precious.
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing all SMA's. Now failing its 0.0% retrace (1.2782). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.2924).
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(144,233). Tested and failed its 61.8% retrace (38.86). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 39.67).
Bearish long day. Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (17.76). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 18.37).
Spinning top day. Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Now failing its 38.2% retrace (94.65). New low on dally 3LB (reversal is 96.13). Still below the monthly 3LB mid.
Spinning top day. Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing its 61.8% minor retrace (30.00). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 28.89).
Bearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing SMA(89). Still failing its 61.8% retrace (46.14). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 46.40).
Bearish long day. Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 61.8% minor retrace (0.7643). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 0.7841).
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Failing its 38.2% retrace (3.660). New low on daily 3LB changes (reversal is 3.648).
Bearish short day. Tested and held SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). Now failing its 61.8% minor retrace (563.20). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 571.70).
Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Failing its 0.0% retrace (294.78). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 294.83).
IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.
32 comments:
Currently the SPX will be trending down on the weekly 3LB if the week closes lower than last week. But its still above the monthly 3LB mid so the long term is still bullish.
Gold/silver ratio at 56.551 and is 2.97% below its recent high of 58.279.
Good interview on Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/video/92687835/
Thanks for the update Ra.
Did you guys see this?
http://www.innovationnewsdaily.com/743-blueseed-floating-tech-incubator-silicon-valley.html
pretty neat idea if you ask me
Ra,
I heard some stat the other day, have not checked to see if true, that for 33 straight years the market has visited its opening day of the year price before the end of the year......think we started at roughly 1258ish this year.....
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/chris-martenson-we-are-about-have-another-2008-style-crisis
Chris Martenson article on ZH.
Andy/Ben/AmenRa,
How's it going? It's been a while for me here. I have a crazy elliot wave idea to run past you guys.
First, I think EW patterns are distorting somewhat as people use the classical patterns (the Neely view) ... and I also think classical patterns are out there, but need a more nuanced view to spot.
And now to my crazy idea ... has the euro formed a massive triangle and it's now thrusting out of it? Here's the set-up ... first move down in '08 was a big/sharp A-wave, then the triangle begins ... a-wave to '09 high, b-wave to '10 low, c-wave to '11 high, d-wave to ealry jan of '12, and then e-wave to a few weeks ago. Notice the e-wave retraced 38% and turned into a triangle as well.
The very powerful thrust down recently (and even the gap in the futures from a couple of weeks ago) just has the feel of a triangle thrust to me. Could a big C-wave be happening now? Could the Euro be headed to ~parity in near future?
Crazy idea ... but I have seen some triangles look exactly like this in real time and then made money off of them ... they were just on a smaller scale.
If you line this up with your idea about the SPX thrust from late last year to April. Perhaps stocks and the Euro have topped big time.
This 13 day move down in the euro and move down in DX does not have the feel of a blow-off top, but rather the start of something.
Feel free to tell me I'm crazy :)
Trading wise, I'm short a few things in a small way, but mostly sitting in US cash and likely looking to buy gold back in size at 1400+/- if it gets there.
Steve
Steve
The "13 day move" paragraph should read:
This 13 day move down in the euro and move up in the DX does not have the feel of a speculative blow-off top, but rather the start of something bigger.
Futures appear to be full of hopium. But then again they did the same thing last night. I guess the goal is to hope it carries over to the open. Most of this move I'll attribute to the FB IPO.
Steve, I'll let Andy or Ben answer that as I'm not that proficient in EW.
Spain beset by bank crisis, recession, bond pressure
| Reuters
"The problem for Madrid is that property losses facing banks are not yet quantifiable, given prices are likely to fall further.
The government told the sector last week to set aside another 30 billion euros in provisions.
A government spokeswoman said the bidding process to select an external auditor to value real estate assets across the banking sector was still open, denying Oliver Wyman and BlackRock had been chosen as sources previously told Reuters."
..But not to worry..the Spanish government, in talks with Timmy the G, has found that growth last quarter was "overstated" and that therefore upon revision, the collapse of Spanish government finances will not be as bad as speculated.
"It appears we will be revising down ALL previous benchmark comparisons, he will be quoted tomorrow....
Ah, wonderful, in response to Saverin Senators will released the "Ex-Patriot Act"
and, there you have it......
@Steve,
I don't have a count for Euro at the moment but I don't think that general view is out of the question nor is your proposed count
Andy mentioned the potential inverse H&S in the /DX.....it would target prices up closer to $90 so the Euro call makes sense as would that likely push gold to that 1400 area as well, however while I'm still expecting for stocks to continue a bit lower here, maybe down to that 1250 zone, I think afterward we'll attempt one more run back into 1400's SPX....we'll see.
And having glanced at the FXE chart this morning in response to your post I can't help but mention how similar the /GC chart looks to it since August of last year, the only difference being this current wave in gold is now challenging those December lows whereas the Euro has room left to the 2010 lows
SPX support for today
1317.29= SMA(144)
1300.49= 1/30/12 low
1296.83= 38.2% retrace
1300= mythical round number
New York Fed Delays $1.7 Billion Maiden Lane III Debt Sale
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-17/new-york-fed-said-to-postpone-sale-of-maiden-lane-iii-debt.html
I guess there's more interest in FB than this particular debt. LMAO.
Philly Fed -5.8, prior 8.5, consensus 10 "Oops"
Leading Indicators -0.1, prior 0.3, consensus 0.1 "Oops again"
Steve, you are crazy....
But will look at your words later.
in the meantime...
S&P500 shorts..."hold em if you got em."
Maybe some mild support at 1296-1300
10yr yield currently has a weekly 3LB reversal down and is below the low close from Sept 2011 (1.808). It still hasn't tested the absolute low from Sept 2011 of (1.696)...yet.
Why do I get the feeling there is some "Twist" money finding its way into the market?
n/m cuz Twist getting twisted.
The S2 weekly pivot point for SPX has been violated (1326.03).
SPX also violated the S2 daily pivot point (1313.47).
Capt'n she wasn't designed to take this much pressure. At this depth we'll implode.
AAPL breaking below its SMA(89) or 541.49. Next level of support is the 3/6/12 low of 516.72 which is close to the 38.2% retrace of 515.83.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/simple-question-senator-schumer
He makes a point. Make sure your contributors aren't involved in any kind of tax avoidance before throwing stones.
Thanks Ben & Andy.
yeah ... perhaps I'm seeing (or trying to make up) triangles when they are some other formation like a head & shoulders. I started to look at it a bit more when I had a few investment friends doubting the usd/euro move or at least being very nonchalant about it ... so it perked my sentiment-meter to see if there was some bigger pattern at play that would support a much bigger move.
Ben, on the GC, I agree it's pretty much the same pattern. If you look at gold in swiss francs it looks much, much closer to a normal triangle completion.
Thanks again.
I feel a Wile E Coyote moment coming...
re: 10yr
I was curious to what a bearish engulfing indicates in a downtrend. I guess I found out.
Another mythical support level (1305) violated.
I guess Barfitomo can't gleefully say "well we are off our lows of the day..."
Added a trailing stop at the close. Just sayin'.
New thread.
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