AmenRa's Corner 4.17.12

"'s Opex week."

Creditcane™: WTH & WTF?!? Also YGBFKM.

Bullish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(55). Tested and held the 38.2% minor retrace (1372.42). Failing the lower trend line (10/4-11/28). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1419.04). QE2infinity.

Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed the 61.8% minor retrace (79.60). Tested and failed SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 78.98). Still below weekly 3LB mid.

Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(55). Now failing its 61.8% minor retrace (18.81). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 16.44).

Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Now failing its 50.0% retrace (1661.00). Tested and failed SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1706.50). Still above monthly 3LB mid. Must have the precious.

Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(89). Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (1.3142). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3465).

Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(21). Holding above its 61.8% retrace (38.86). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 38.69).

Spinning top day. Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing its 38.2% minor retrace (21.37). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 21.59).

Bullish short day. Tested and held SMA(89). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 61.8% retrace (102.98). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 105.68). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal down.

Bullish short day. Still failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing its 38.2% minor retrace (32.01). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 33.26).

Bullish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing SMA(21). Still failing its 38.2% minor retrace (49.10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 49.00).

Doji day. Holding above SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). Failing its 38.2% retrace (0.7808). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7825).

Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(144). Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace (3.653). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 3.717).

Bullish piercing day. Still failing SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 38.2% minor retrace (592.47). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 636.23).



Andy T said...

Thanks for that AR.

Was a seven wave down on the S&P500...not even the dumbest Elliot Waver can count that as an impulse lower. So, that's not great for the bearsish case. But, it's just a corrective move up.

I think the 21 day MA is going to be a tougher nut to crack for the bulls.

Andy T said...

1398 looks like good resistance to me....

That's the 61.8% retrace and the small a=c up from the most recent lows.

AmenRa said...

The SMA(21) is definitely resistance. But "1400" will be the real bear killer. Algos probably set to "bear smash" once that is crossed.

Andy T said...

I spy rbob cracks getting ROCKED last several days. Seasonal peak is in on the gasoline/oil.

Right on cue.

b22 said...

you mean we aren't going to run out this year either Andy?

Andy T said...


In another shocking development, we are not going to run out of gasoline.

Those damn speculators ensured, once again, that the market found the price that "cleared" the market....

Real shocker to me.

Andy T said...

Oh...and yeah...those f'ng EVIL wrongdoing speculators also drove the price of natty gas to supercyle lows....reviving the entire US Industrial/manufacturing sector.

I guess those are the 'good' kinds of speculators...vs. the 'bad' guys.

Very Orwellian...

AmenRa said...

...that TICK reading of 1410 caught my attention (@11:55 on a five minute chart).

b22 said...

just depends on the asset class

speculators that drive the right kind of commods down are "good"

speculators that drive stocks up are "good"

speculators that drive bond yields down, also mostly "good", at least for now

speculators that drive the dollar down.....

uhhh....wait a minute, we're getting into the uncomfortable part of the conversation here aren't we...its seems there is a contradiction

where's Obama to figure this out for us?

Which way should speculators drive the dollar Obama?..... and be careful now with that answer, wouldn't want to go disrupting the "preferred" speculative outcomes

b22 said...

Gundlach seems to believe the debt ceiling becomes a major issue around September

that'll be good timing for the election, as it wasn't be design to "happen again that fast"

hence Timmay's panic while making the tv rounds this weekend

If I were Obama, well, who am I kidding, I'd go on vacation......every two months or so you know

AmenRa said...


Every time Timmay's on tv you know there is a problem and that they're trying to control the flow of information.

Anonymous said...

ol' TTT, what a disgrace that that 'dude' is, actually, SecTreas..

Reason, alone, to understand the *Concepr of..


AmenRa said...

This is so weird. TICKS have been churning between 300-700 consistently and the market is lower. Does TICKS up Market down indicate dumping?

Anonymous said...

Germany upmarket auto firm Audi (IW 1000/79) , owned by Volkswagen (IW 1000/10), said April 18 it is to buy Ducati, the Italian maker of some of the most sought after high-speed motorcycles in the industry.

"The deal will be completed as soon as possible after it is cleared by the authorities," Audi said in a statement.

It did not give financial details but press reports put the price at around $1.12 billion.

The deal will give Volkswagen an entry into the top-end motorcycle market, taking on its auto rival, BMW (IW 1000/37).

Ducati, established in Bolgna, northern Italy in 1926, is famous for its high-speed road and racing bikes, of which it sold 42,000 last year worth 480 million euros.

Investindustrial, an investment fund, has controlled the company since 2006 with a 70% stake.

Copyright Agence France-Presse, 2012


Anonymous said...

Argentina drought leads to 40 percent crop losses
Estimate for harvest year at 20.8 million metric tons
Release Date: Monday, April 16, 2012

The six-week drought in December 2011 and January 2012 that hit Argentina's crop fields led to losses of up to 40 percent in some areas, according to the country's government.

In key corn-growing area Bragado, Buenos Aires province, early-planted fields are being harvested with yields coming in at 2,000 to 5,000 kilos per hectare, said Argentina's weekly crop report. Nearly half of Bragado's 2011–2012 corn has been collected at an average yield of 4,500 kilo per hectare. Some early-planted corn fields in Rio Cuarto, Cordoba province, are so thin that farmers have decided not to harvest them. The province's late-planted corn is developing normally, except in western Rio Cuarto, which was affected by frost in early April.

The current total 2011–2012 corn crop estimate is at 20.8 million metric tons, according to the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange.


Anonymous said...

You Walk Wrong
It took 4 million years of evolution to perfect the human foot. But we’re wrecking it with every step we take.

81 Comments Add Yours

By Adam Sternbergh
Published Apr 21, 2008


AmenRa said...


Argentina should be practicing their rain dance routine instead of nationalizing foreign companies.

Anonymous said...


this was N. of ~40, near the end of January..

now ~13.12


b22 said...

boy, real interesting article there on the feet/walking, thanks for sharing that.

I'm starting to see a lot more of people in these kinds of shoes at the gym:

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