AmenRa's Corner 3.12.12

Creditcane™: An EMP would make me disappear. Unfortunately I'm like a cockroach. I don't die.

Doji day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above SMA(21). Holding above the 0.0% retrace (1359.44). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1374.09). QE2infinity.

Bearish harami day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed the 50.0% minor retrace (79.96). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 78.27).

Doji day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Failing its 61.8% minor retrace (18.81). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 21.14).

Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing its 38.2% retrace (1721.70). Tested and held SMA(89). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1672.10). Still above monthly 3LB mid. Must have the precious.

Bullish harami day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(55). Tested and held its 50.0% minor retrace (1.3145). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3063).

Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(21). Tested and failed its 38.2% minor retrace (39.62). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.88).

Bullish short day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (18.96). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 20.47).

Bearish short day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (106.97). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 109.77). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal down.

Bearish short day. Tested and failed SMA(144). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing its 61.8% retrace (35.41). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 37.20).

Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Holding above its 50.0% retrace (43.76). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 45.79).

Bullish short day. Tested and failed SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Failing its 38.2% retrace (0.7808). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7857).

Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing SMA(21). Tested and failed its 61.8% retrace (43.48). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 44.75).

Bullish short day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its 0.0% retrace (547.61). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 530.26).



Andy T said...

This story about skyrocketing prices in Haiti reminds me of the message one of the evil Koch Bros. tells about foreign aid:
Charles Koch basically suggests that when the Western world sends food to places like Africa (to "cure hunger") it actually has adverse affects. The influx of 'free' food staples can crush local farmers who can no longer compete. He suggests it would be far better to donate things like tractors, irrigation equipment...send in some civil/agri them ways to increase the yield on current land.

To me, it makes MUCH sense.

But alas, he's an evil doer who is set on controlling American with his right wing philosophies....

Oh Well. Moving on....

AmenRa said...

Andy T

That's actually a good idea. Teach a man to fish...

AmenRa said...


Skew is a foreign language to CNBS. When traders are loading up on OOM options indicating they expect a major move (usually down) is something that is forbidden to discuss on CNBS.

Anonymous said...


yes, quite~


He's correct..also, see what 'donated Clothing' does to recipient Countries "Textile Markets (Domestic Manufacturers)"..



CV said...

"something that is forbidden to discuss on CNBS"



Funny, assuming that's accurate, it's strange that ANYTHING would be "forbidden to discuss" on a major MSM business channel (or blog, for that matter) in such an open & fully vibrant market & economy... After all, it is the whole cornucopia of ideas that "makes" a market, does it not?

Reminds me of being kicked off the Ritholtz blog (or when some other refugees from the Ritholtz blog like Thor & Denise broke off from bergsten & then proceeded to tell Andy & Co. that their opinions weren't welcome at their new digs...

qqqqtrader said...

Unemployment & Income Tax Correlation if you're interested that the economy "might" be getting a bit better.

qqqqtrader said...

Real Home Price Index

oops, it went over the line

BinT said...

Thanks for the charts Q.

BinT said...

Spain Faces Call for Deeper Deficit Cuts as Juncker Calls Rajoy Plan Dead

"Spain’s deficit reached 8.5 percent of GDP last year, overshooting the 6 percent pledged by the outgoing government of Socialist Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero. Most of the slippage was due to bigger-than-forecast regional deficits.

The new government has already implemented 15 billion euros of austerity measures, including higher income-tax rates. The government forecasts the economy will contract 1.7 percent this year with unemployment holding above 24 percent, complicating efforts to raise revenue.

“Spain needs to do more and was called upon to do more,” Dutch Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager said. “We have to keep on top of it, the pact has to be maintained, they have to implement the reforms and the austerity measures.”

b22 said...

"Funny, assuming that's accurate, it's strange that ANYTHING would be "forbidden to discuss" on a major MSM business channel"

Its not accurate at all as there are "bears" on CNBC all the time. The balance of guests there are bullish because the majority of market participants are bullish most of the time, one need only glance at ANY sentiment survey to see this. CNBC's sponsors don't care if people trade long or short, so long as they trade and keep trading. It only "seems" like they aren't allowed to talk about downside but thats not true at all, everyone from Prechter to Roubini to Rosenberg goes on CNBC on a fairly regular basis, and further, Dr. J is on there all the time talking about traders buying OTM puts or whatever else people are doing or may want to consider, just saw him recently (within the last two weeks) saying as much.

As people here have stated countless times, they have 0 issues with WHAT you are talking about, you just present your "side" of things like a prick, so your other attempt to imply that people are trying to stop you from talking about certain things:

an invention of your own mind

to say nothing of the fact that anybody here that mentions trading stock, or heaven forbid is discussing selling some of their PM' shouted down by the "non-market follower/daily follower farmer"

yup, its just like that

AmenRa said...

Normally when DXY is up the USTs are up. EURUSD getting smashed (hello 1.30). SNB selling francs to keep the cross at 1.20 or better. Gold and silver are lower but the question is was the move gradual or all at once?

AmenRa said...


CNBS like to gang up on those who are bearish. You can see the look of bewilderment in their eyes when they hear those type of talking points. They may not say it but I can almost guarantee they hedge or go to cash WTSHTF. Especially the FM hosts.

b22 said...


thats true and certainly some of them, like clown ARS, are in denial about any trouble ever, but it seems the original point was that nobody was allowed to say anything bearish on CNBC. That just isn't true, there are bears there all the time.

as for them being ganged up on, you hardly need to be on CNBC for that to happen, maybe I've just had more experience than others here about what happens when you are bearish within a group of professionals that are bullish

its not much different behind closed doors than it is on tv, the language is just a bit more colorful.

AmenRa said...


"its not much different behind closed doors than it is on tv, the language is just a bit more colorful."

Now that I can believe.

AmenRa said...

Seems like they broke through resistance on the SPX (for now). But if BB sees inflation then there's no need for QE.

CV said...


You're right... I didn't mean to come off as 'absolute' in those terms...

But there is clearly a longstanding bias in both the rhetoric that spews from both CNBC (in terms of bullishness [which, it would be hard to argue, is 'equities biased' probably because it is the easiest thing for the sheeps to wrap their empty-ish heads around])... & from the MSM in general...

So Amen, IMO is largely right (9:33 comment)...

Also ~ notice I said "empty-ish" above (doing my best to avoid speaking in absolutes)...


AmenRa said...

Outside of April 2011 this is the lowest the VIX has been since July 2007. Which was a few months before the market peak in October 2007.

CV said...


This is directed to you...

Look man, I know a lot of insults have been hurled back between you & myself lately... I can't remember if it was the "Madonna" comments or not that sent me over the edge (which is a coy way to marginalize someone)... At this point, I'm 100% guilty of the same behavior as recently I've found ways to engage in the same type of behavior...

Anyway ~ I regret that I apologize for it...


For some reason, last night I was looking over the land & was thinking of you... What popped into my head was your (2 acres) comment...

The bottom line is that I don't know how much land you have, but I remember you talking about wooded areas & lumber on some previous post...

See... I think that's totally cool... I wish I had the same... I mean, 2 cleared acres is plenty to grow a lot of stuff & even maintain small amounts of livestock if necessary, but hell, I wouldn't mind having plenty of wooded acres as well...

I'd be holding on to that as best as I could...

Around here, firewood is pretty easy to come by... I mean, it's all over the place... But LUMBER is a different story...

qqqqtrader said...

couldn't sleep well last night, sooo, mashed some data together and it became this... may be useful

15 Economic Indicators

qqqqtrader said...

Ra, there goes our line in the sand, should've listened to the left side of my brain... low volume market melt-up, be continued

b22 said...


I just told Amen he was right about his 9:33, but thanks for confirming that.

I still disagree with the original claim that nothing bearish can be talked about at CNBC, I never said there wasn't a bias, of course there is.

the public creates the bias though otherwise the pundits wouldn't keep operating like that, the average person thinks its "good" when the market goes up and "bad" when the market goes down, so thats what gets sold to them....what they want, rather than any type or commentary that requires critical thought.

BinT said...


Frankly I don't care if you are apologetic or not. You have lots or problems, and I still am certain you are self-destructive in your day-to-day behavior. It is more than evident from your comments on this blog.

I suggested you see a psychologist. That was good advice, not mean-spirited. Do it. It can only help you.

Anonymous said...



though, the Chart, now, does not look 'constructive', I under-estimated the Genius of this type of Advertising (in this 'Economy')..


Anonymous said...


on a 'short-term' basis, this type of 'pattern' is not "Bullish", yes?

IOW, looks like S is fixin' for a 'Pullback'..~(?)


b22 said...

that S chart could be considered extremely bullish in several respects

you have a rounded bottom and a series of higher lows and higher highs on a very basic perspective

if one were to use my suggested RSI technique they'd also note S is moving into bullish zone and RSI improved during the entire rounded bottom, several accumulation days there as well recently

or, if you want to keep it simple and not get bogged down with stuff

flip that chart upside down and ask yourself if it looks like a top or a bottom

Anonymous said...


I hear ya 'longer-term'..(I'm Long a Skiff of that stuff)

was asking..on a 'short-term' basis..

'daily'/'0ne, to two weeks'


b22 said...

don't find the chart very bearish at that degree of trend either but I've only looked at this for all of 20 minutes

when you lower your time frames you'll note that relative strength of that stock at the recent highs is far better than its been in weeks, other studies I use are also bull trend but I'd rather keep those to myself for the time being.

draw yourself a trendline from the big positive divergence on the RSI (14) on the daily that connects the august rsi lows and the higher low in October and extend it as far right on your screen as you can, do that on a daily chart

drop yourself down then to a 1 hour time, a 30 and a 15 min frame and keep that line on there and put bollingers on your chart, standard setting is fine

that is not a coincidence what you see right there

I don't trade patterns but short term it looks like a bull flag, RSI is nowhere near extended on the daily, but use those shorter time frame for entry/exit

due to the way RSI is constructed you won't see the signals fast enough on a daily chart as.

b22 said...

like I said though, very little time spent on this, just doesn't look to bad to me at quick glance


Anonymous said...


"..just doesn't look to bad to me .."

that's really all I was asking..~



b22 said...

NP ibid, now hopefully that doesnt' blow up in my face, lol.

that giant gap up above is...interesting, i would say


scale selling dollar here still?

Light Bulbs said...

BnT - Do you know how many psychologist it takes to change a light bulb?


Cuz the light bulb needs to want to change.

Mangy Mutt

qqqqtrader said...

I'd say 1375 has been taken out, fast run up to 18's 1406 may be faster than I thought, I said, I'm amazed!

Andy T said...

thanks for the charts qqqq

Andy T said...


"BnT - Do you know how many psychologist it takes to change a light bulb?


Cuz the light bulb needs to want to change."

That's funny shit right thar!

AmenRa said...

Just got in. Heard the carnage on the radio. Dead bears were falling from the sky.

Andy T said...

We can all use a psychiatrist once in a while...that's my humble opinion.

There's no such thing as 'ordinary' or 'normal'...we're all pretty whacked in our own ways.

Andy T said...


Anonymous said...

"There's no such thing as 'ordinary' or 'normal'...we're all pretty whacked in our own ways."

in College, every once in a while, I would 'run into' someone carrying an 'Abnormal Psychology'-Textbook..

often, I'd say to them.."Hey, that's Great! Now, you'll have an opportunity to learn more, about yourself..~"

Most took it the 'Wrong Way'..given their reactions, you'd think I was telling them that their Mother bedded Mules..

easily, (low) single-digit %s, 'Got it!', and answered with an enthusiastic confirmation..


Anonymous said...

re: SPX

no kidding, that was 'niice' last-hour Accion`


Anonymous said...

42:00 mark, or so..

hang on to your Socks..~!


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