AmenRa's Corner 2.28.12



"The path of the righteous man is beset on all sides by the iniquities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men. Blessed is he who, in the name of charity and good will, shepherds the weak through the valley of darkness, for he is truly his brother’s keeper and the finder of lost children. And I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger those who would attempt to poison and destroy My brothers. And you will know My name is CDS when I lay My vengeance upon thee."


Creditcane™: Don't worry. The ISDA discarded my number years ago. Maybe I should hit redial.


SPX
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Holding above the 0.0% retrace (1359.44). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1363.46). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed the 38.2% retrace (78.43). Failing SMA(21,55,89). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 79.67).



VIX
Bearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(21). Failing its 61.8% minor retrace (18.81). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 21.14).



GOLD
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 38.2% retrace (1721.30). Still above all SMA's. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1724.90). Still above monthly 3LB mid. Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bullish short day (didn't confirm dark cloud cover). Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above SMA(89). Holding above its 61.8% minor retrace (1.3222). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3063).



JNK
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above all SMA's. Tested and failed its 61.8% minor retrace (40.10). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 39.68).



10YR YIELD
Spinning top day. Failing SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 0.0% retrace (18.96). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 20.47).



WTI
Bearish long day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed its 38.2% minor retrace (107.86). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 106.25). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal down.



SILVER
Bullish long day. Now above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its 61.8% retrace (35.41). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 33.44).



BKX
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Holding above its 50.0% retrace (43.76). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 43.62).



HYG/LQD
Bullish short day. Tested and held SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above its 38.2% retrace (0.7808). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7908).



AAPL
Bullish long day. Still above all SMA's. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its 0.0% retrace (528.50). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 516.39).



MUB
Bullish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(55). Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (110.53). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 113.89).




IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.

36 comments:

Andy T said...

Anyone else think it's weird that the S&P500 is printing nominal new highs on the whole move but it's not "breaking out" yet?

It's truly a strange market and weird move up...the last several weeks.

Shaking head....can't wait until this is done.

Andy T said...

Meanwhile...in the dark pools of the OTC Energy market...business is "brisk"...

"lot o'" volume flying around town...

Andy T said...

Meanwhile....

This is the greatest Burger commercial I've ever seen...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xdGsKzmCgB0

I've been Bullish Kate Upton for over a year now...I caught the trend midway....

Anonymous said...

The problem with Kate Upton is that she, at 19, is only 2 years older than my oldest daughter, and that just doesn't seem right....

Andy T said...

@Anon.

I know...

I understand. I've got mixed emotions about the whole deal. That's why I only hang out with 30+ strippers at Treasures..... heh heh...

My eldest will turn 15 this August, so there is this 'weird' deal as your own kid approaches 18, etc, etc....

The way I rationalize it all is that

a) She doesn't look 19 at all;
b) She's 'legal' and not friends with my daughter;
c) Even if she was somehow "available" to me through some sort of alternate universe, I probably wouldn't touch her anyway...BECAUSE she's too young.

So, I've come to the realization that I'm just someone who likes to admire "pretty things"...that could be artwork in a museum...a good looking impulsive pattern on a chart...the Audi R8 in my parking lot...a pretty girl in a commercial, etc, etc...


As the great Kanye West wrote "It's a celebration bitches!" So, let's enjoy it all....

18 said...

Inching upwards, and not because of that vid, (although that could do it)... 4 up days into the quest to take 1375.

Anonymous said...

@AT, good work on that rationalization!! She could easily pass for 28.... ;-)

My middle daughter is the same age as your oldest -- born in 1997.

So I am pretty much in the same boat that you are -- an admirer of pretty things. Meanwhile, I need to watch my son and try to keep him in check a little -- he is 12....

Whammer (same as anon above)

AmenRa said...

Hmmm. There were 71 bidders for $133B in an "OT" operation at the ECB with a 1 day duration (start date 2/29, maturity date 3/1). So did 71 banks need $133B in help in order to participate in the LTRO?

AmenRa said...

800 banks on their knees for a $529B LTRO. EURUSD inching lower. US futures not impressed. Gold and silver higher.

Anonymous said...

1/2 a Trillion Euro, out the Door, in a Snap!

that'll be 'Good'..for something..~


ibid.

on other 'Fronts'..

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=AAPL

~535

Market Cap 499.20B

Perf Quarter 47.26%

Insider Own 0.02%

Inst Own 70.71%

~~

SPY v. GLD (3 year)

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Fund&symb=SPY&x=41&y=8&time=10&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=2%2F29%2F2012&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=GLD&comp=GLD&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=1&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=2&style=320&size=2&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=14

AmenRa said...

Today is the 3rd real gap higher on AAPL. These gaps happened in just over two months. The move higher is becoming exhausted.

AmenRa said...

...I wonder how many decided to go long after the Dow closed above 13000.

18 said...

1375, check that box, now what?

back to work...

QQQQ said...

Got Gold?

AmenRa said...

Guess they couldn't wait until Sunday night to knock down silver.

AmenRa said...

QQQQ

Since the candles for gold and silver didn't gap higher before reversing then this is probably profit taking. Plus a little of paper selling to help push them lower.

AmenRa said...

11:27 EST 315 contracts Silver sold
11:28 EST 1746 " "
11:29 EST 2616 " "

11:41 EST Silver back to 34.78 (50% of down move)

The coordinated selling half life is getting really short.

AmenRa said...

Today was the 3rd TICK reading below 1000 since 12/21/11. Now that's some unbelievable sheeit.

AmenRa said...

addendum:

There were 13 daily TICK readings above 1000 since 12/21/11.

Andy T said...

Wonder what it was the Ben B. said exactly that caused gold to sell off....

AmenRa said...

Andy T

No mention of additional measures (aka QE3).

Or when he said "the ECB is well capitalized".

Beer Bath said...

Did any of you get a chance to see Angela Merkel get a beer bath?

Our local news over here showed a waiter carrying a tray of beer, he stopped behind her and someone tried to squeez by, this forced the tray up and Merkel got cover.

What a waste of beer.

Mangy Mutt

Anonymous said...

I think I'm having 'Withdrawal'-Symptoms..

where, O Where, is the ~"it's a Rothschild-backed Fiat Ponzi"-Drama to wade through..

do I need to 're-wind' "Previous Threads"..?

ibid.

AmenRa said...

Mangy Mutt

The German form of "golden shower"?

AmenRa said...

I'm wondering if we can avoid a monthly 3LB reversal up on the SPX (above 1363.61).

Anonymous said...

What High-I.Q. Investors Do Differently
By ROBERT J. SHILLER
Published: February 25, 2012

YOU don’t have to be a genius to pick good investments. But does having a high I.Q. score help?

The answer, according to a paper published in the December issue of The Journal of Finance, is a qualified yes.

The study is certainly provocative. Even after taking into account factors like income and education, the authors concluded that people with relatively high I.Q.’s typically diversify their investment portfolios more than those with lower scores and invest more heavily in the stock market. They also tend to favor small-capitalization stocks, which have historically beaten the broader market, as well as companies with high book values relative to their share prices.

The results are that people with high I.Q.’s build portfolios with better risk-return profiles than their lower-scoring peers.

Certainly, caution is needed here. I.Q. tests are controversial as to what they measure, and factors like income, quality of education, and family background may not be completely controlled for. But the study’s results are worth pondering for their possible implications...."

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/26/business/what-high-iq-investors-do-differently-economic-view.html?_r=3

this is a beautiful piece of Rhetoric/Agitprop/Propaganda..

AAIP

AmenRa said...

Damn.

b22 said...

AT,

I didn't hear Bernanke say anything he hadn't said in the last 6 months.

when I have a little downtime tomorrow I'd like to introduce an RSI trading strategy to the group.

@aaip,

Shiller mentions that in the book irrational exuberance, but at the time he wrote that he couldn't conclude that IQ had anything to do with trading results

seems he's still looking into it....

regardless, I'm not sure how "more diversification" would always translate into "smarter investor"

not to bring up buffett again, but as the richest investor out there I've heard him say that if you diversify its because you don't know what you're doing.....

Anonymous said...

doesn't matter the Source..

this: "...that if you diversify its because you don't know what you're doing..."

I think, is Correct.

ibid.

Anonymous said...

http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=AAPL

~542.44

Younds~!

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI

~34.62

speaking of being 'pile-drivered', back to the 34s..

AAIP

BinT said...

this: "...that if you diversify its because you don't know what you're doing..."

I think, is Correct.

...I would certainly agree with that, too. But even more important is some degree of market timing...If you don't sell when the party is over (techs 2000, gold 1980, reits, etc) whether you diversify or not won't matter much.

b22 said...

exactly

also, that idea of diversification denies periods when virtually all asset classes go down

one could have equally weighted

small cap
mid cap
large cap growth
large cap value
international
REITS
and commodities

in 2008, and lost in all of them

personally I think market timing is everything and even before diversity risk mgmt of losses is more important.

AmenRa said...

ben22

Has Berkshire Hathaway ever do a stock buyback or pay a dividend? I remember Buffett saying he was against dividends.

b22 said...

I don't think a buyback but I know for certain never a dividend

much like his extremely arrogant comments about why he waited so long to give money to charity, buffett is entirely against dividends because he thinks it is counterintuitive

my own summary: why should he pay some schmuck a dividend when he could take the capital and make it grow to many multiples thus increasing the size of BRK and shareholder value, iow, they are better off leaving all the money stuff to him, left to their own devices all his shareholders were surely do the wrong thing

you know, because whatever buffett touches is certain to go up, right?

this was his claim about charity as well, that he waited in order to "maximize his gift"

which is utter bullshit.....and Michael Stienhardt is the only person I've ever seen have enough balls to say so publicly

search the video of him on CNBC last year...he ripped WB to shreds in it

Anonymous said...

Steinhardt is a good reference..

that dude is Sharp, as well..

ibid.

Anonymous said...

On the topic of "if you diversify, you don't know what you are doing".....

In 2000, I was diversified. I owned:

Hardware stocks
Software stocks
Dotcom stocks
Telecom stocks
Private equity in tech startups

That didn't work out so well.

QED!

:-)

I laugh because it is better than the alternatives.

- Whammer

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