AmenRa's Corner 2.13.12



Creditcane™: I hope everyone realizes that Greece is lying about implementing reforms.


SPX
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Holding above the minor 38.2% retrace (1314.25). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1351.95). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish harami day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above the 38.2% retrace (78.43). Tested and held SMA(89). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 79.39).



VIX
Hammer day (didn't close gap). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(21). Tested and held its 61.8% minor retrace (18.81). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 17.10).



GOLD
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (1721.30). Still above all SMA's. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1759.30). Still above monthly 3LB mid. Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bearish harami day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above SMA(55). Tested and failed its 61.8% minor retrace (1.3222). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.3290).



JNK
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Tested and failed its 38.2% minor retrace (39.62). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.68).



10YR YIELD
Spinning top day. Tested and held SMA(55). Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (18.96). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 19.49).



WTI
Bullish short day. Tested and held SMA(55). Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 50.0% retrace (97.71). New high on dally 3LB (reversal is 96.36). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal down.



SILVER
Spinning top day. Holding above SMA(89). Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 38.2% minor retrace (31.85). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 34.20).



BKX
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Holding above its 50.0% retrace (43.76). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 43.61).



HYG/LQD
Bearish long day. Tested and failed SMA(55). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed its 38.2% retrace (0.7808). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7908).



USDJPY
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above SMA(55). Tested and failed its 50.0% retrace (77.567). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 75.52).



COPPER
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(21). Tested and failed its 50.0% retrace (3.863). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 3.781).




IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.

30 comments:

BinT said...

Amen:

I agree with your thoughts about crude. Some of the gang here commenting about the rise in gas prices, and in this area you have tons of pick-ups as the main vehicle.

I must say I am impressed at how Bernanke is forcing people into the stock market. Don't think it will save housing though, as taxes kill the comparison between owning and renting.

BinT said...

Amen:

I also noted the bombing of the Israeli diplomats and wonder if this will bring a spike in oil prices...I certainly wouldn't be surprised if the Israelis pull out the whuppin' stick on Iran...

Anonymous said...

cv--

you ever look through..

http://gsaauctions.gov/gsaauctions/gsaauctions/

??

also, re: 'Market'

so much for 'hitting ~1330, easily..'

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ES

now ~1347

knocking on the Door of Last Year's 'High'..

ibid.

cv said...

@AAIP

Never hear of it b4...

Looks interesting tho... I got it bookmarked now...

been looking to come across some machine tooling apparatus...

cv said...

I certainly wouldn't be surprised if the Israelis pull out the whuppin' stick on Iran...

Not with Soviet nuke subs parked off Syria...

Anonymous said...

cv--

re: "Auction Sites"

given the 'locality', even the 'local Gov.' "Auctions" various things..

should be pretty easy to find with 'WebSearcher'..

AAIP

AmenRa said...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/moodys-downgrades-italy-spain-portugal-and-other-puts-uk-france-outlook-negative-full-statement
Moody's Downgrades Italy, Spain, Portugal And Others; Puts UK, France On Outlook Negative - Full Statement

Now when will Moody's downgrade the US is the real question.

AmenRa said...

Lumber testing July 2011 highs. Also close to breaking above its 38.2% retrace. One more higher weekly close and it will be trending up on the weekly 3LB.

Andy T said...

Pretty amazing market....

I'm sort of longing for the moment that Greece stops making the headlines. It obviously doesn't matter much and it hasn't for some time....

Andy T said...

This article hits on a 'pet peeve' of mine...(among many)

http://reason.com/archives/2012/02/10/are-state-colleges-ripping-us-off

Essentially, college just isn't worth it....the whole damn thing is broke.

I'm seriously planting the seeds in my daughter's brains that they don't really need much college to succeed...you don't need a friggin' MBA to own or run a business....

The whole thing is a scam in many respects....

Andy T said...

But hey...let's just keep throwing more money at the schools...that'll solve all the problems.

AmenRa said...

Andy T

That's only because many employers won't consider a possible employee without a college degree. It's a circle jerk.

BinT said...

cv said...
I certainly wouldn't be surprised if the Israelis pull out the whuppin' stick on Iran...

Not with Soviet nuke subs parked off Syria...

...CV..you need to stick with picking superbowl winners...

Anonymous said...

"...I'm seriously planting the seeds in my daughter's brains that they don't really need much college to succeed...you don't need a friggin' MBA to own or run a business....

The whole thing is a scam in many respects...."

AT,

no kidding, and x2.

maybe, a decent way to Start, w/ a new Homestead, beckoning, on the Horizon..is to show her something like this..

http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=ind_homefurnishingsfixtures

and/or order some 'Annual Reports' from some of those Co.s and/or REITs..

obv., with the 'Screener' one could 'Start' at different 'Sectors'..

http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=ind_generalentertainment

http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=ind_specialtyretailother

http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=ind_apparelstores

as, but, some examples..
~~

as an aside, it is (one/another) thing that 'We' lost with the "PE"(private equity)-Boom over the last ~15 years..

many Firms/chunks of Industry Verticals went 'dark' behind the Mask of 'Private Ownership'..

AAIP

Anonymous said...

tangentially, I find it amazing that many of the Co.s rec'd for "High Dividends, from the 'Market, While 'the Bank' pays ZIRP"-types of Lists, are found in this 'Screen'..

http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&f=fa_debteq_o1,fa_div_high,fa_payoutratio_o100&ft=2

"Yield Pig", 'It's What's for Dinner'...

AAIP

cv said...

@Bruce

OK I'm game...

Israelis pull out the whuppin' stick on Iran...

I must have misinterpreted your statement... Have you stepped that 'war game' out in your mind?

cv said...

Here... just for fun, I'll play one...

1. Israel would be very unlikely to engage in any ground war (they've had their claws in the US for years now to handle that kind of stuff)

2. So all that's left are nukes & airstrikes

3. You can forget about nukes (unless they go batshit crazy because whether Iran has nukes or not [which is debatable ~ because there is nothiong saying that they couldn't have obtained one on the black market after the collapse of the Soviet Union, or through Pakistan or whatever...

3. Don't forget that Pakistan has nukes as well & so does India, so if Israel even thinks about it, you've just lit a bonfire... Both Russia ^ China would come down on the side of Iran in this situation, so even if the US were to support Israel, now you've started WW3 with the US & then western Europe vs. Russia & China

4. Therefore ~ probably the only card (for Israel) to play would be to try & get in a spitting match to the point that it provokes the US into a conventional ground war... The US would be idiots to engage in such because:

a) It brings into play the same 'escalation clasue' regarding nukes and puts us right in the crosshairs with Russia & China

b) Such ~ would pretty much shut down the region from oil shipments, not ONLY with regards to Iran's output to its partners, but also in any kind of oil shipments from the region (which would likely be embargoed)... The main partner for the US (KSA), would probably have to suspend dealing with the US until things settled back down... So, besides talking about $20+ a gallon gas, what you're really talking about is little gas at all (which would disrupt business and especially FOOD shipments around the globe)... If it wenty on long enough, it would probably end up in a war on the American continents (because the US would have to jettison its peaceful positions with Canada, & Mexico & instead, go after their oil... The US would immediately be on a diplomatic island...

So... everything considered... I think iot would be a better idea to keep the "whuppin stick" holstered, & settle for the mysterious scientists dying here & there...

~~~~~~

Jeez ~ If I can come up with scenarios like that over a beer, I can't imagine what American, Russian, & Chinese generals can do in their war rooms...

cv said...

& in my conclusion (considering everything above)...

Personally, I certainly WOULD BE surprised if Israel pulls out the whuppin stick on Iran...

Unless "whuppin stick" refers to Mossad agents picking off scientists by putting arsenic in their tea...

cv said...

Now ~ getting back to the Superbowl (where I belong)... Here's a reference...

When I use the term "I wouldn't be surprised"... I often apply it to football odds (or even Oscar picks)...

For example: I was picking the New England Patriots to win the Superbowl (back last August)... In the end, they were basically one Wes Welker non-catch from fulfilling that prediction...

But before the game (on this blog), I told everyone (maybe not the exact same words), that I basically wouldn't be surprised if the Giants won (but that I was still sticking with the Pats)...

Depending on how you want to look at it, it more or less implies somewhere around a 50-50, or at worst 60-40 probability...

Oddly, if you turn the same statement around and say "I WOULD BE SURPRISED", the implied probabilities could change drastically...

Applying it to the Wes Welker non-catch... I think if you replay that 100 times & were able to wash your memory after each viewing... I think you say "I WOULD BE SURPRISED" if he drops this one more than 9 times out of ten...

~~~~~~~

In any case... Saying "I wouldn't be surprised" (vis-a-vis Israel) goes back to the 50-50 probability spectrum... which is why my immediate reaction was "not so fast"...

Instead, my view is that the probability is less than 1% (and probably A LOT LESS)... Thus my saying... "I WOULD BE SURPRISED"...

cv said...

@ben

I think you'd enjoy reading this article...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-its-far-deeper-broken-okun

QQQQ said...

What did you do the last three years at your job?


this has got to be a joke, right?

cv said...

@QQQQ

Well all I can say is it was posted by someone by the name of 'babylonsister'...

High probability that most of her 'sisters' will believe that kind of rhetoric...

At least we know that Peggy Joseph is alive & doing fine...

BinT said...

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2011/10/10/us/declining-household-income.html?ref=us

Declining Household Income

Real household income has fallen by about 10 percent since the start of the last recession, with a greater decline after the recession ended.

Andy T said...

Pretty pumped that Kate Upton made the cover of SI...

She's been my #1 Favorite for the last year...she's legitimately "big time" now...

cv said...

Kate-Y bar the door!

Anonymous said...

http://www.google.com/#hl=en&cp=5&gs_id=n&xhr=t&q=Kate+Upton&pf=p&sclient=psy-ab&site=&source=hp&pbx=1&oq=Kate+&aq=0z&aqi=g-z1g3&aql=&gs_sm=&gs_upl=&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.,cf.osb&fp=f2900e4a30b61916&biw=1024&bih=618

she was the 'first' "Kate" that GOOG 'predicted'..

and, if 'these' are her..

http://www.google.com/search?q=kate+upton&hl=en&prmd=imvnsuo&source=lnms&tbm=isch&ei=mbo6T8XvH8Xa0QHjvImRCw&sa=X&oi=mode_link&ct=mode&cd=2&sqi=2&ved=0CBYQ_AUoAQ&biw=1024&bih=618

"Butter Face"

ibid.

cv said...

step 3 is the key...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qUTlqq8C2i8

Anonymous said...

"...Peak Tuna -- Sushi Endangers Atlantic Bluefin Species

Sushi eaters have over-indulged in one of the world's most delicious resources. The numbers of Atlantic bluefin tuna, Japan's most prized catch, have passed their peak, decimated by a global craze over the delicate slices of crimson flesh. Some environmentalists want it designated as endangered.

Once-thriving populations have been over-fished to less than 10 percent of their former populations in some regions. The plight of the species has done little to curb demand; a Japanese sushi chain spent a record $730,000 for a single fish this year.

International quotas are ignored each year. The tuna trade has declined since its 2007 peak, but not fast enough, according to the Pew Environment Group. In 2010, bluefin sales were more than double the set limit.

[Also see: Top Counterfeit Goods]

Peak Water -- Era of Clean and Cheap Comes to an End

Water is plentiful on Earth; humans use less than 1/100 of one percent. This global abundance obscures local challenges. In many places, the tap is running dry. That's because there's a difference between usable water -- the kind that's clean and salt-free and located nearby, and unusable water -- everything else.

Many of the reservoirs of water humans draw on for farming, manufacturing and drinking are ground-water aquifers that took millennia to fill. These irreplaceable storage tanks are being depleted over just a few decades.

The era of cheap water has passed its peak, according to Peter Gleick, a California scientist who helped define the term "peak water" in 2010. The good news is there's plenty of water out there if the humans just learn to better manage it.

Peak Iron -- Emerging Markets Keeps Prices High..."
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/in-demand.html

ibid.

AmenRa said...

A 30 minute run to close almost flat based on another Greece rumor. I'm so tired of all of the BS. There's no way Greece will implement reforms so why bother giving them the money in the first place.

Anonymous said...

AmenRa,

as I think you know, it's for 'the Banks', not the People..

the Greeks, themselves, have 'figured it out' and are Rioting in multitudinous places--throughout the Country..

ibid.

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