AmenRa's Corner 1.19.12





Creditcane™: No mas (unless they decide to enforce option pain).


SPX
Bullish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Tested and held the minor 38.2% retrace (1314.25). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1292.48). QE2infinity.



VIX
Spinning top day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (20.22). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 21.16).



GOLD
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed its 50.0% retrace (1655.20). Holding above SMA(21). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1639.60). Still above monthly 3LB mid. Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(21). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (1.2777). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.2672).



JNK
Spinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above SMA(21). Tested and held its 61.8% retrace (38.86). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 38.94).



10YR YIELD
Bullish long day. Tested and held SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Holding above its 0.0% retrace (18.96). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 20.68).



WTI
Spinning top day. Holding above SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed its 61.8% retrace (102.00). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 103.38). Not confirming the monthly 3LB reversal down.



SILVER
Spinning top day. Holding above SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and failed its 50.0% minor retrace (30.81). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 29.52).



BKX
Bearish short day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Failing its 50.0% retrace (43.76). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 42.08).



HYG/LQD
Bullish short day. Tested and held SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (0.7808). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 0.7908).




IT HAS BEGUN. YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED.

26 comments:

AmenRa said...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/isda-finds-event-default-eastman-kodak-whose-bonds-are-trading-27-higher-greece
ISDA Finds An Event Of Default At Eastman Kodak, Whose Bonds Are Trading 27% Higher Than Greece

Figures.

cv said...

...from previous thread

They say the businesses are magnets for crime because they usually have large sums of cash on hand. Since nine sweepstakes cafes have opened in Seminole County, crimes at those addresses have increased 14 percent, according to data compiled by the sheriff’s office.

A bill was brought before the State Legislature this session that would have prohibited the games. Its proponents cite a host of concerns — worries about crime, compulsive gambling and morality. But the bill was rejected after an aggressive lobbying campaign by the companies that franchise some of the cafes. It did not help, industry critics say, that two state legislators own Internet sweepstakes cafes themselves."


---

Ummmm...

BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHA!

Jeez... I thought that the article was about the S&P & Wall St... until I saw it had to do with Florida slot machine casinos...

cv said...

I'm pretty sure that if one were to subscribe to the proper 'services' though... Their newsletters would be able to give you a detailed breakdown on the fact that hitting 3 CHERRIES, is pretty good as we speak (according to their IN DEPTH studies, which, of course, fail to account for the fact that "Agent Q" (from James Bond fame), fostered a little magnetic device that can produce winners at will...

Oh WTF... Just watch "Diamonds Are Forever"... At least you'll be entertained in the process... If not for the technogogical wizardry... AT LEAST by Jill St. John's sexy ass in panties (plus a cool ass '71 Mustang fastback)...

cv said...

Oh... & careless of me to fail to mention this...

Don't forget "Lana Wood" (PLENTY, in the movie)...

Lana Wood is the sister of Natalie Wood... You know... The babe that Bob Wagner killed due to negligence...

He skated too..

Andy T said...

In re: the PIPA/SOPA legislation...

I know that we've all become a bit jaded and cynical, but it's worth noting that we still have shreds of a representative democracy left....

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/courts-law/after-wikipedia-blackout-lawmakers-struggle-to-keep-anti-piracy-bills-on-track/2012/01/19/gIQAqc9ZBQ_story.html

SHEEPLE get pissed when they don't have their Google, Wikipedia and YouTube.

Andy T said...

@cv.

Jill St. John was sexy...

Agreed.

Andy T said...

@AAIP

"Some of the most Intelligent individuals I've come across have been 'Hedgies'.."

x2.

I work with a lot of really bright hedge fund and/or bank commodity types...

They're usually:

a) Libertarians;
b) Raised middles class or poorer;
c) Worked their way through .. or got huge loans to go to a good college;
d) Work long hours;
e) Extremely bright;
f) Aggressive;
g) Fair.

I can share A LOT of stories to illustrate all of those points .... but i won't bore you...

But suffice to say, I'm generally sympathetic to most traders....

There are some scumbags out there, for sure. But I'd say that 78.2% of the hard core trader/hedge fund guys you might meet are ok.

Just sayin'...

AmenRa said...

Will someone fill the can with concrete so the next time they kick it they break their foot.

Anonymous said...

AmenRa,

what is sad is that 'they' need not, actually, 'kick it'; others, just, need to believe it to 'be kicked' ..

~~

AT,

yes, much like that, esp. w/ a.), d.), e.), & g.)

though, the majority of those being b.), & c.)

but, from my end, I think "competitive" might be a better descriptor, than "aggressive"...

(just, for 'clarity''s sake)

AAIP

cv said...

Will someone fill the can with concrete so the next time they kick it they break their foot.

Now that's funny... :-)

AmenRa said...

Why do they keep reporting that Greece and its creditors are close to a deal when all of the creditors aren't participating in the talks?

Anonymous said...

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CBOT_ZB.H12.E

142.15625 -0.65625 (-0.46%)

was, nearly, 145 1/2, on Wednesday..

T-Bond.com, Gotta Luv It~


ibid.

cv said...

@AAIP

Don't you just love the idea of buying government debt, and holding it to duration at a half a percent rate of interest? (Whilst the price of food, or energy rises anywhere between 5% to even 30% YOY (dedending on the measurable time frame)?

Your other choice is to plow it into 'arguably' worthless equities (if they're not worthless now, they will be at some time the second someone decides to stop printing money & market discovery paper prices begin to reflect reality)...

or... I guess someone right now could just take a lot of their cash and start buying things that they can stockpile...

But that person would probably be a stupid, and/or self destructive type... It may even qualify them as a tear our wrist (by some definition)...

Morning Wood said...

Or they could buy a wood pellet machine, don't think many have one!

Anonymous said...

cv--

it is, truly, a 'Conumdrum'..

for, the "Stockpile"-'Option', then, entails the "if you can keep it"-style Physical/Political 'Risk'..

all I know, for *certain, in these Daze, is that 'Political Risk', in this Jurisdiction, is, significantly, under-Priced..

which, btw, was one of the *Reasons I was asking, on these Threads, a couple of Days ago, ~"Would you "start a Business" (given the opportunity), Today?"

...many a 'Hobson's Choice', to be seen, along every avenue of Pursuit..

makes for 'Strange Days' and, even, (a)'Stranger Daze'...

though, at the EOD, I think that's 'part of the Gestalt'-- ~if 'you' can paralyze some--they take themselves out 'of the Game'..

curious, at least, no doubt..

AAIP

Anonymous said...

ge·stalt or Ge·stalt (g-shtält, -shtôlt, -stält, -stôlt)
n. pl. ge·stalts or Ge·stalts or ge·stalt·en or Ge·stalt·en (-shtältn, -shtôltn, -stältn, -stôltn)
A physical, biological, psychological, or symbolic configuration or pattern of elements so unified as a whole that its properties cannot be derived from a simple summation of its parts.
[German, shape, from Middle High German, from past participle of stellen, to place, from Old High German; see stel- in Indo-European roots.]

The American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, Fourth Edition copyright ©2000 by Houghton Mifflin Company. Updated in 2009. Published by Houghton Mifflin Company. All rights reserved.
Gestalt [gəˈʃtælt]
n pl -stalts, -stalten [-ˈʃtæltən]
(Psychology) (sometimes not capital) a perceptual pattern or structure possessing qualities as a whole that cannot be described merely as a sum of its parts See also Gestalt psychology
[German: form, from Old High German stellen to shape]

Collins English Dictionary – Complete and Unabridged © HarperCollins Publishers 1991, 1994, 1998, 2000, 2003

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/gestalt

ibid.

dear SOPA,

Bleaux Me!

cv said...

@morning Wood

Or they could buy a wood pellet machine, don't think many have one!

I gotta be quite honest... I've been running a wood pellet stove to heat an entire floor of a house for about 2 years now...

Economically? Yes, it's a savings over electric heat & it's relatively painless (assuming you're not driving a Prius, and have the capacity to haul anywhere from 3-4 tons of the stuff to your house, or else stand for delivery charges which would eat into your cost savings when all is said & done)... You also need a strong enough back to be able to not be bothered tossing 40 pound bags on your shoulder and walking them around, lifting them, putting them down, pouring them, etc...

So assuming you can do all that... & despite the "low ash" advertisements by all pellet dealers on their products... Maintenance (regular ash removal) is a chore...

There's a REASON... In the "Green Acres jingle" that "THE STORES" (Manhattanites) vs. THE CHORES (Farm living) is memorialized...

In the end... If TSHTF... I'm (at present), of the belief that obtaining cute little "wood pellets" (at a cheap price), will NOT BE POSSIBLE...

Which means...

I'm ready at any moment to go back to a regular wood burning hearth...

Frankly - In the worse case scenario... Today I'd recommend that someone invest in a 22 ton log splitter, and an old pick-up truck...

The FREE stuff is all around you... You just need a way to turn it into BTU's without breaking your back or burning too many calories in the process...

cv said...

@AAIP

~"Would you "start a Business" (given the opportunity), Today?"

---

I must have missed that post...

I don't have a specific idea as to what you're referring to but I'll offer some generalities... Not trying to make a thesis, but just present ideas...

- It seems to me that a large part of what "Americans" do these days is just paper pushing & financial engineering... I'd say we're in deep doo-doo BECAUSE we've allowed ourselves toi become this way... It'll go on for as long as it can go on, but eventually it is doomed to failure...

- Those "holders on" (traders, financial analysts, economists, & the erstwhile Barry Ritholtz's of the world), are part of a decaying & bloated system that's only being propped up due the "suspension of disbelief" tactics by the OWNERS of that system... It's truly like drug dealers convincing all the junkies that they need to stay addicted...

- The NEXT wave (whether it occurs all of a sudden, or slowly), will be BACK TO BASICS (which is why I constantly ridicule the "JETPACKS" meme)... people with "skills"... The same skills that have proven themselves to be valuable over thousands of years...

- So as far as "starting a business" is concerned... It proposes a dilemma... I can't say that starting a SKILL based business in this moment of general economic decline is a wise idea if you're motive is PROFIT... I'll commit to saying that in the aftermath of whatever is coming, those skills, or goods that they can produce will be profitable in the new paradigm...
So in the end it's a personal choice...

Personally... I've given up the idea of PROFIT... I'm just as happy maintaing my "quality of life" at this point (& I realized that my digital trading account balance was not really offering me any quality of life)... Instead, the knowledge that I ought to be able to do most of these things on my own (& the resources to make that happen) is a more than worthy substitute...

But that's just me...

-

Anonymous said...

Frankly - In the worse case scenario... Today I'd recommend that someone invest in a 22 ton log splitter, and an old pick-up truck...

The FREE stuff is all around you... You just need a way to turn it into BTU's without breaking your back or burning too many calories in the process...

cv--


though, that's, just, it, isn't it?

"22 ton-Log Splitter"--what does that run on? how many (feet of spare Hydraulic Hose/quarts of Hydraulic Fluid) do you keep in 'reserve'?

and, "FREE" ? similar, If you can get to it, and back, right? (and, there's a Cost to that, too..)
~~~

"You just need a way to turn it into BTU's without breaking your back or burning too many calories in the process..."

ya know, there was a Real reason why peep, 'back in the day', were in better shape...

they, either, were, or they were NOT (as in 'around')...
~~~

I'm not sure that, even, 'Preppers' realize how Fragile our, current, Economy, really, is..

if "TSHTF" there's going to be wide-spread Pain, all along the 'spectrum'..certainly, the ultimate Pain for some, but, at the min., Pain for all..
~~

so many talk of "TSHTF", so lightly..I don't think they have a f***ing Clue..

and, with those, if the 'Physical'-shock doesn't kill them, the Psychological one, has a good chance of finishing them off..

~~

ibid.

Anonymous said...

cv--

my 14:57 was in response to your earlier Post..

@ your 14:44 ..

yeah, I hear, that's, actually, pregnant in what I was 'laying out' (@14:57) ...
~~

this: - It seems to me that a large part of what "Americans" do these days is just paper pushing & financial engineering..."

is, 4 Sure! and, so many have so little 'Clue', thereby..

~~

tho..w/:"...... I'll commit to saying that in the aftermath of whatever is coming, those skills, or goods that they can produce will be profitable in the new paradigm..."

therein, lies the 'nub of it'..

the 'Opportunity' involves reliance upon the existing 'Manufacturing Machinery'(of 'the Economy')/"Technocracy" ... it is not something that 'One can make in their 'own' Backyard..'
~~~

that being said, 'something' needs to be Done (not, necessarily, for Financial Profit)..

b/c, after *thinking about it, my own Advice (to others) came back..

~"the Economy (can't go to 0 (Zero)/isn't going to 0 (Zero)" ...

so, roughly, 'Expect the Best, Prepare for the Worst' (and, if you're 'in the Saddle', Hold on, Tight!)

:)

AAIP

AmenRa said...

Don't laugh: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/fomcchartstemplates20120120.pdf

Or they could just look at the 90 day UST.

Anonymous said...

http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=BVSN

~29.32

(when does one/does one) 'bust out the 'Shortin' Stick', on this one..?

ibid.

Anonymous said...

http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=AZO&ty=c&ta=1&p=d

~346.93

http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=S

~2.26

http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=HGT
http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=SJT
http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=OTT

"Yield Pig", it's 'What's for Dinner!'

http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=NG

LOD: ~2.2830

ibid.

cv said...

@AAIP

"22 ton-Log Splitter"--what does that run on? how many (feet of spare Hydraulic Hose/quarts of Hydraulic Fluid) do you keep in 'reserve'?

Gasoline...

But oddly enough, that should not present a problem...

Almost any engine nowadays can run on different fuels... They tell you to run on this or that because that's what the SPECS say (and, of course to avoid warranty issues)...

On that subject, the issue is with regards to it's lifespan... So sure, if you poured in corn or potato distilled ethanol, the lifespan would meet with some adjustments (especially with regards to, as you pointed out, valves, &/or otherwise SPARE PARTS)...

There are a lot of resources out there now on "homemade" wood gasifiers that could be fitted to runs the same engines...

This stuff isn't new...

The GERMANS (faced with fuel shortages in the world wars) were very creative in getting various engines to run... & the issue is... for a log splitter, a couple of gallons here and there can service a lot of work... We're talking about IF THEREC WERE EVER gas shortages here (which, of course, everybody knows there NEVER WILL BE, because we're a world of paper trading geniuses who would NEVER allow something like that to occur)...

And then, of course, the more environmentally conscious ones from that lot should invest in solar powered log splitters (you know, for that hydraulic pressure needed to split a balsa wood chopstick right into two pieces)...

In a pinch, I suppose they could hook copper battery cables onto their Prius battery (for power)... That is, of course, they happened to live on the summit of Mt. Everest and could continuously hit the brakes & recharge all the way down...

After they hit the Ganges River, they might have to resort to plan B...

cv said...

BTW

When I mentioned "spare parts"... I wasn't really referring to hydraulic fluid or otherwise motor oil...

Basically I just keep a case or two stored... I can't really say if its enough or not... I'm still new at this...

Motor oil wise... a case or two of a basic 10w-30 should serve a variety of needs (whether or not optimal)...

Hydro fluid... I have little idea at the moment...

cv said...

Holy silver batman!

Now that chart looks like the start of the right shoulder of a "reverse H&S"... Have no clue after that...

All I know is that Andy's 10 BEN FRANKLINS that are coming my way (or not, depending on the "double down") variable in Foxboro this weekend... Just got more valuable...

Not that I'm really interested in converting them into cotton...

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This blog should not be interpreted as investment advice of any kind. The authors are NOT representing themselves CTAs or CFAs or Investment/Trading Advisor of any kind. The authors may or may not trade in the markets discussed. The authors may hold positions opposite of what may by inferred by this blog.The information contained in this blog is taken from sources the authors believes to be reliable, but it is not guaranteed by the authors as to the accuracy or completeness thereof and is presented here for information purposes only. Commodity trading involves risk and is not for everyone.