Morning Corner 9.19.11

ES (weekly info)
-no change (above mid)
low= 1124.00
rev= 1263.75; mid= 1193.88

After a week of relentless bullishness futures finally show some weakness. It has gapped down on the daily ES. it's testing the weekly 3LB mid and 50.0% retrace. It's still above the SMA(21) though.

30 Yr Bond (weekly info)
-no change (above mid)
high= 141.219
rev= 136.938; mid= 139.079

The long term bond is not confirming the bearish engulfing formed last week. That means the yield is falling and making it harder for banks to borrow short/lend long. It's above all SMA's. It's close to breaking back above its 0.0% retrace.


Andy T said...

Naturally, options expired last week....

And market tanks on Monday.

Thanks for playing Johnny.

BinT said...

Preparing for a Greek Default

John P. Hussman, Ph.D.

...Can kicking is becoming like an NFL game in the 4th quarter with only 1 timeout left, and you are still behind....

AmenRa said...

Andy T

I was thinking the same thing.

BinT said...

interesting comparison with initial claims from Feb/March of this year with the last couple of months...

..soft patch..........

Anonymous said...

...World wheat production in 2011-12 is forecast at 678.1 million tonnes, up 6 million this month, according to the Wheat Outlook released on Sept. 14 by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA)’s Economic Research Service (ERS).

The largest increase is for Canada, where the wheat crop is forecast up 2.5 million tonnes to 24 million this month based on an almost 7% (0.55 million hectares) rise in wheat area, and a 4% increase in yields.

Despite many convincing signs of a substantial reduction of seeded wheat area in Saskatchewan and Manitoba due to persistent rains that severely disrupted fieldwork in May and June, wheat area to be harvested turned out larger than anticipated and is up 3.4% for the year. Growing conditions in August were very favorable in the main wheat-producing regions in the Prairies, as well as in Ontario, with no early frosts in key growing areas and warm temperatures helping to dry out soggy soil.

EU wheat production is expected to reach 135.8 million tonnes in 2011-12, up 2.3 million this month. Wheat harvesting of the 2011-12 crop is virtually complete, but statistical offices in individual countries continue to compile and revise wheat production numbers.

The largest increase is in Germany, up 0.8 million tonnes to 23 million. In France and Spain, official government reports suggest 0.5- and 0.3-million-tonne increases in the countries’ wheat production to 35 and 6.5 million tonnes, respectively.

Wheat production is expected to be higher in Ukraine, up 1 million tonnes to 22 million, as indicated by the latest harvest reports.

The wheat production forecast is up 0.2 million tonnes for both Morocco and Brazil, to 6.1 and 5 million, respectively.

World wheat supplies for 2011-12 are projected up this month by 7.6 million tonnes to a new record of 871.5 million, more than 20 million tonnes higher than the previous year....


Anonymous said...

"Welcome to 'Free-Markistan', M*therF***er~"

The US Department of Agriculture late Friday extended the period for exporting countries to ship tariff rate quota (TRQ)sugar by one month to help ease the tight supply of sugar in the US.

The USDA said countries holding US import quota for 2010-11 may ship sugar until Oct. 31, 2011, one month past the end of the current marketing year without having to pay additional duties.

“This action is expected to reduce the shortfall and provide additional flexibility for US refiners,” the USDA said.

About a month ago the USDA said TRQ imports for 2011-12 may enter the US as of Sept. 1, 2011, a month ahead of the start of the new fiscal year, “in response to increased tightness in the US raw cane sugar market.”


Anonymous said...

"Let them eat Carob.."

Tate & Lyle, P.L.C., Lille, France, has launched a cocoa replacement solution that uses Carcao, a carob powder ingredient, and is designed to save costs in the total recipe. Carcao may be used as a partial cocoa replacer in dairy, bakery and ice cream applications.

Manufacturers also may achieve a desired color or flavor. For instance, Tate & Lyle specialists may adjust the temperature and roasting conditions during carob powder production to produce a series of different Carcao products. The products may range from light brown and sweet-tasting to dark brown with a strong unsweetened taste.

Tate & Lyle has developed case studies to demonstrate the cost benefits of using Carcao. They include a chocolate mousse, a chocolate-tasting muffin, a cocoa drink, chocolate ice cream and a cocoa filling.

Anonymous said...

"Welcome to 'Free-Markistan', M*therF***er"

Part II

Ukraine has initiated the creation of the world’s grain reserve under the auspices of the United Nations, said Mykola Prysyazhnyuk, the minister of agrarian policy and food for Ukraine. Ukraine would have the responsibility of forming the reserve of 10 million to 12 million tonnes of grain, preserve it and make grain interventions on the market following respective decisions by the United Nations.

A world grain reserve presumably would be used to regulate world prices through market interventions in times of low grain supply. The world grain reserve also would guarantee food security of the global population.

Ukraine expects to harvest more than 40 million tonnes of grain in 2011. In early August the crop was 36% larger than the amount of crop harvested by August of 2010. It is believed Ukraine’s annual grain production is about 33 million to 35 million tonnes per year.

AAIP (& @ 11:59)

Andy T said...

I love all the "terms"...


Where do they come up with this shit?

Mel said...


Mykola Prysyazhnyuk...Now try and figure out a mnemonic for that.

“When you come to a fork in the road, take it.”
-Yogi Berra

And so Ritholtz opines on investment direction...yada,'s another big picture view...

If its stamped Tiffany 925...take it.

QQQQ said...

a different twist... is it real?


ben22 said...

Where'd they come up with Operation Twist?

as if Bernanke ever had an original thought:

"Operation Twist was a program executed jointly by the Federal Reserve and the (freshly elected) Kennedy Administration in the early 1960s to keep short-term rates unchanged and lower long-term interest rates (effectively “twisting” the yield curve). The US was in a recession at the time, but Europe was not and thus had higher interest rates. Arbitrageurs (under the Bretton Woods system) would convert US dollars to gold and invest the proceeds in higher-yielding assets overseas (see Alon and Swanson, Operation Twist and the Effect of Large-Scale Asset Purchases). Billions of dollars’ worth of gold was flowing into Europe each year. (Incidentally, President Kennedy announced Operation Twist on February 2, 1961, which basically corresponded to the business cycle trough.)

The notion behind Operation Twist was that the government would encourage housing and business investment by lowering long-term rates and at least not encourage gold outflows by maintaining short-term rates. Mechanically, the Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate steady while purchasing longer-term Treasuries. The Treasury reduced its issuance of longer-term debt and issued mostly short-term debt."

QQQQ said...

major 18's
(not that I really believe in this stuff)

1375... 2011 high, so far (within $4)
1244... 2011, was support, now resistance
1112... 2011 low, so far (within $11)
1006... 2010 low (within $5)

spoonman said...

via forexlive

Doesn't mean a top is in, just that it's closer than it used to be...

AmenRa said...

What did I miss? What the hell happened at 3:15 to send the markets higher?

Andy T said...

Thanks for that explanation Ben......didn't know that background on the twist?

Andy T said...

Also not sure if I mentioned this over the weekend but I'm now the proud owner of an iPad. So, I now hold more parties; I'm now younger and more artistic and interesting. Also, I will now be writing in Al Gore because I now care more about the enviornment.

BinT said...

I got a new pair of boots.

Anonymous said...

for those w/ young'uns & tweens, & older..

re: "Gardasil", et al.

"Intel Hub Note: The FDA is a criminal, some say terrorist organization, that openly promotes and approves vaccines that kill people while at the same time attacking herbal remedies for cancer and raiding raw milk dairy’s.

And to think, the corporate controlled media, including Peter Gergen(Bohemian Grove is great) have claimed that those that rallied against the Gardasil vaccine have actually killed people!

The idea that anyone could watch these videos and look at the evidence and still promote this horrible vaccine just goes to show how bad the people that control this country actually are.

Anderson Cooper(who is actually an elitist Vanderbilt) and his panel of Big Pharma shills continue to push this vaccine even after all these deaths."


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