30 Yr Bond (weekly info)new high 126.469
trend=up
high= 126.469
rev= 124.875; mid= 125.672
Looks like the selling of the long bond has begun in earnest now that QE2 is over. Sold hard enough to send it below its SMA(21) & SMA(55). It tested and failed the 23.6% retrace. It also has made a weekly 3LB reversal down.
CCI (weekly info)new low 625.78
trend=down
low= 625.78
rev= 685.42; mid= 655.60
Commodities are heading for the exit. Barely avoided making a monthly 3LB reversal down. Trying to get back above its 23.6% retrace. Tested its SMA(21) a couple of weeks ago and failed.
WORLD WIDE PREMIERE JULY 1, 2011
It's a brave new world.
It's a brave new world.
52 comments:
New era of foreign diplomacy...
It appears that Obama has lent the ChiComs his "Photoshop CZAR"
http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/envoy/fake-photo-fallout-chinese-officials-embrace-social-media-171223649.html
http://news.yahoo.com/strauss-kahn-case-twist-turns-prospects-upside-down-090819802.html
Translation:
DSK has received "an offer he could not refuse" to keep his mouth shut...
Probably a pallette full of freshly shrink wrapped FRN's...
...as for the maid? Well, she & her colleagues will probably have to EARN their cuts (by the hour) if you know what I mean...
@QQQQ (from yesterday)
From your keyboard to Colbert's ears...
http://news.yahoo.com/comedian-colbert-lampoons-campaign-finance-laws-201831632.html
More good news for Wall St. bankers...
http://www.herald-mail.com/news/sns-rt-us-crime-sentencingtre75t716-20110630,0,7849356.story?track=rss
@72bat
Hey - to celebrate the July 4th weekend, why not grab yo gatt with the extra clip & head out to the local gin & juice joint?
http://news.yahoo.com/ohio-governor-signs-law-allowing-guns-bars-224705191.html
---
Sponsored by the ATF... Since 1972, policing your right to "drink, lite one up, & go shootin'"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43598606
"The Federal Reserve's massive stimulus program had little impact on the U.S. economy besides weakening the dollar and helping U.S. exports, Federal Reserve Governor Alan Greenspan told CNBC Thursday.
In a blunt critique of his successor, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, Greenspan said the $2 trillion in quantative easing over the past two years had done little to loosen credit and boost the economy."
...One ivory tower moron calling the other stupid...some day all this government interference will be over, but not soon. We first have to crush the foundation of small business.
CV
If the credibility of DSK's accuser is shot then will DSK only get slapped with a fine? Could he get his old job back?
Also, who in their right mind would want the Treasury Secretary position?
cv -
was going' to head thru thomas wv and on into bal-mer for crabs on the 4th but that fell thru, so may take your suggestion though it prolly wouldn't go over well with many here in one of the "most fun towns" in america.
just heard on the radio this a.m. that a primary proponent of concealed carry here now suggesting the cc law be extended to allowing teachers to carry in the classroom (to protect the students y'know) and for legislators to carry in the state house (shades of clay & calhoun)
Today might get interesting. The first six 1-min candles were all bearish.
AR, we're back to JBTFD it seems!
SPX 30 day hourly chart still forming the cup I mentioned last week.
Nix that previous statement. Thanks ISM.
...and yet the other regional ISMs were negative.
Every item in ISM was lower and yet the difusion index is higher. Amazing.
The DSK thing....
Shaking head....
Andy T
Didi you think the SPX would get back to 1340 this quickly?
SODA bitchez....learn to love it
here's two more
EXAM, CSII
Ra,
fwiw, I gave this picture to some peeps back on 6/14:
http://tinypic.com/r/2qkp8d1/7
I'm basically just working with Andy's count off it, here's the updated snapshot from last night:
http://tinypic.com/r/15fi4b7/7
ben22
Today looks like the SPX skipped a couple of waves and went straight to 1340.
lol, yeah Ra
market appears overbought now, however, big rallies often start from overbought, it's hard to say but I think 1340 puts a cap on the rally
I'd like to think that morningstar pattern was still a valid one. In the Nison book they show an example of one that looks like that suggesting to give them leeway when they aren't perfect, I suppose we could debate that the lower low directly after negated it but clearly the direction has mostly been up since it played out.
todays $spx looks an awful lot like yesterdays, if those are considered flags we aren't done going up just yet
ben22
What I was looking at was SPY volume from last week which was 400B below the previous week. This weeks volume is around 300B below last week. So even though the market is up, it's not a believable move.
Ra,
totally agree with you, volume is punk and therefore the rally is suspect and I think only countertrend as is presented in those above charts, there is still another leg down to come, just not sure how nasty it will be. I also keep in mind that volume has declined on average for over a year now, but we keep chugging a bit higher, it'll matter eventually of course.
more important though is that I don't look at the price action since Feb as more than a correction at this point, and so the move from March 09 isn't over, I'm looking for huge cumulative a/d negative divergence before it is, so for now I'm still a bit more constructive on digging for stocks to go long, there are some good charts out there is what I'm finding, lot of stocks that seem to be doing some good basing and setting up for breakouts.
YGBFKM
The ISM report I was looking at said July 1 at the top but still had last months data. It's been corrected now. Employment was up. Really? The ratio of new orders to inventories has dropped below 1. Last month was 1.047 and this month is 0.954.
@72
Well whatever you do... Just take 'Coolio's' advice & "stay sucka free & keep the busters off ur jock"
@ben22 (11:47)
"more important though is that I don't look at the price action since Feb as more than a correction at this point, and so the move from March 09 isn't over"
---
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wkURz6H0I0I
10yr yields up 11.74% since 6/24/11. Ouch.
Did they try to ruin DSK because he preferred haircuts for senior bondholders? That's what he tried to do for Iceland until TG stepped in. He probably had the same thing in mind for Greece. So, HE HAD TO GO. But now that the case against him is about to fall apart, does he get to rescind his resignation? If so then will he play hardball on all bailouts from now on? Haircuts bitchez!!!
SODA bitchez is right...which left me wondering...whatever happened to Fizzies, a household staple in my youth.
Apparently still available in candy stores. Might pair better with Alka Seltzer...specially this weekend.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fizzies
My second fav. Kravitz song there CV, off Momma Said.
His daughter Zoe is starting to get a lot of coverage in various rags.
Perking right along...I just re-invented the hula-hoop...as a musical instrument. You can play it for sfx or program the thing like Garage Band or load it with CV's favorite beats.
Not the worst idea I've ever had...Jennifer, I need a patent lawyer.
@CV
You up for a demo and appearance on Shark Tank?
Never mind...I need someone with bigger tits.
Ra.
The move to 1340s obviously not surprising...the pace does surprise me a bit.
monthly Gleason Report out today.
Yeah, it looks like they're trying to get the SPX back to the high before the June swoon of 1345.
@Mel (12:55)
"...whatever happened to Fizzies?"
---
Well, from CV's re-collection, the Delta House fraternity (Animal House) dumped an entire truckload of Fizzies into a swimming pool during a varsity meet as a prank...
...causing a worldwide shortage, I suppose...
---
So in essence... It's kind of like gold, silver, or oil...
There isn't really any physical supply to speak of anymore in the world, so they just create PAPER markets for them so the bankers have something they can rip you off on & the government has something they can tax you on...
Pretty soon it'll be wind & solar... They'll tax you for (& have a paper market for) every square inch of your household roof (which could 'theoretically' hold a fotovoltaic capacitor)... & of course hand over all the proceeds to Peggy Jospeh after skimming their cut...
'Superfluous papilli & Hi Fat' bitchez!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xzt6zAj7XUM
---
BTW... 'Britt Eckland'...
She's a ROBO BABE
If she were a President, she'd be 'BABEraham Lincoln'!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RIUXRxMI-zA
AT,
I don't like the pace either, it's faster/stronger than the B wave
would not have thought that would be the case, thought they'd show reverse alternation with the D wave being the weaker of the two
I think this may speak to the larger underlying trend though, and maybe the Z wave will be a little stronger than originally thought.....?
@ben
CV, at the moment, is on the 'BBQ wave'...
Already at the (non-existent) farm, & having cleaned the (non-existent) pool this morning & cut the (non-existent) lawn... I'm just getting to laying 3 'rubbed' racks of baby backs on the (non-existent) grill with some (non-existent) hickory chips for smoking...
I also was pleased to find about 40 fresh (non-California/Fukushima irradiated) cantaloupes ripe for harvest so I'm going to have to go get some 'prosciutto de Parma' to go with those...
'Get busy livin... or get busy dyin' bitchez!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7tkzc983aE0
that sounds awesome CV, I plan on doing some BBQ this weekend for sure, I almost took today off but too much going on right now, i couldn't stay away.
@ben
FWIW... My instincts tell me that at this point... Pretty much ALL markets are going to start forming themselves in a way that ALL triangles & wedges start pointing to a Nov/Dec 2012 conclusion...
Just a hunch...
Some may be designed already, while others may lag that dynamic...
Anyway... IF it's the case... It would present some interesting arbitrage (considering you'd have 17 months of arbitrage to jockey around with)...
Like this latest Question of the Week from Neely:
Q: Are the events happening in Europe affecting how the EURO will act in the next few months?
Answer: Current market action is a reflection of current conditions OR anticipated, futures events. Markets rarely "react" to events UNLESS the event was something that could not be anticipated (such as a massive earthquake and tsunami, like what occurred in Japan in early 2011). If the event is already known, a market will never "react" to such information (especially not 1-2 months later), but will respond to it immediately.
The current, human-created financial crisis in Greece (as of July 1, 2011) will not have a future impact on markets. The impact already occurred by those who anticipated it or is happening now (in real time). Future market action will only be impacted by future, unknown events OR by actions taken by those attempting to anticipate future events.
"My instincts tell me that at this point... Pretty much ALL markets are going to start forming themselves in a way that ALL triangles & wedges start pointing to a Nov/Dec 2012 conclusion..."
That's sort of the latest Neely count as well...that's what he's suggesting.
AT,
What do you think of that count he presented today, appears he marked the E wave lower than the top of C...
I still prefer your labels W x Y x Z
@Andy T (2:30)
"That's sort of the latest Neely count as well...that's what he's suggesting"
---
...and here's why... (This is ALSO the answer to why BHO is gonna win in 2012 - so you might as well just get used to it)...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hycTYG3Iols&feature=related
Morgan Freeman has the cure for AIDS?
I thought he was in prison with that CPA, the one that killed his wife....
Not true?
@ben (2:46)
Multitasking bitchez!
(kinda like CV making IDIOT comments on a blog whilst smoking & 'pre-cooking' NON EXISTENT ribs on a NON EXISTENT grill)...
ror
I guess you could also say that I'm 'multitasking' in another way as well...
Am I being "anti-semitic" for cooking (to eat) pork ribs?
WHATEVER YOU DO - DON'T ANSWER (or else a black 'blog police' chopper will be landing on your home heliport within minutes)...
More multitasking...
The only BUBBLE CV sees here is BR's excessive "lean on" to pretty chart PORN to make lazily constructed arguments (or, more accurately - NOT MAKE ANY ARGUMENT AT ALL - just toss out some shit for the Parisians to stuff in their mouths) to keep his pathetic blog alive while he rakes in commissions from labor unions & writes fluff pieces for WaPo...
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/COMMODITY_CONCERN.png
@CV
Speaking of small synchronicities on this partial moon eclipse day...
1. I've been planting trees and picking rocks on my non-existant farm on which I'm also paying yearly non-existant taxes...maybe I can trade in the carbon credits. IMO...everyone should have a few acres in their back pockets as a potential retreat and back-up plan.
2. My rubbed ribs have been in the smoker for the last couple of hours...time to smoke the vaporiser...medicinal purposes only.
3. Wayne's World...Got called in to takeover a Second City tour in danger of falling apart due to a green road manager and some internal strife...one of the dudes way more talented than the others and carrying the whole show. Good thing I played that hunch...Mike Myers has been a bud since '83.
@Mel (1:18)
kinda got me in the mood for a "root beer float" for dessert...
http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=double+d's&view=detail&id=F3C6D51174F2CE40586089D9A224944B002D4FB7&first=0&FORM=IDFRIR
---
(3:21)... more on 'rib rubbing' (& thereabouts)...
#2... I'm kinda hoping that Harpers Ferry becomes a 'prefect' of WDC (making the 'medicinal' thing legal on the farm)... Gotta get AHAB to work on that... I sent a message in a bottle down the Potomac River a few months ago, but he hasn't gotten back to me yet)...
Mike Myers has been a bud since '83.
Umm... That's totally cool (I think)...
Please tell us all that it's not the OTHER Mike Myers that you're referring to...
http://www.bing.com/images/search?q=mike+myers+halloween&view=detail&id=DD4F6D1BE845DA16DF2264F0E6E46AC5ADC5D3DE&first=31&FORM=IDFRIR
U never know... Andy & Amen might resort 'other blog' curators and BAN YOU FOR LIFE for political mis-association...
---
OK - Time to flip the rack again (sounds 'SEXY' don't it?)...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2NXsFReldmg
(only AMEN RA will appreciate that one from CV's dome)
Sold all my TBT calls today and noticed they paid me almost $5 due to an "OPT REG FEE CREDIT 2011" for all of my 2011 option trades. What the heck is this? Can't seem to find it anywhere.
There are... of course... other ways to "flip the rack"...
This one's "got a funky beat... & I can BUG OUT to it"
---
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZieygZyvw4A
Smack it up... FLIP IT... RUB IT DOWN!
@Amen
Gotta love the 'Carl Lewis/Kid n Play' haircuts on that last one... :-)
But of course... Geniuses like THOR would rather spend their (not having enough time to have any intelligent comments on markets/socioeconomics/or geopolitics)... & instead, 'substituting' such time with half baked pseudo-knowledge comments, gracing us all with observations on MULLETS (notwithstanding how JUSTIN BEIBER hairdo or 'Hip-Hop ABS' Videos may look - 20 years from now - but of course we all know that with THIS GENERATION MANIFESTATION, we've finally reached the 'steady state'/'perpetual motion' pinnacle of COOLNESS & WISDOM)...
---
BTW... Not really pissed off about that... Actually laughing...
The NON-EXISTENT ribs are almost done...
Probably time...ALSO... To change the NON EXISTENT bandage on my NON EXISTENT ring finger (from the NON EXISTENT slice on it - from last week)...
I was handling some NON EXISTENT raw pork ribs (well - they USED to be)... during this whole NON EXISTENT BBQ escapade...
Luckily - I happen to have a few cases of NON EXISTENT 'Neo-Sporin/Hydrogen Peroxide/& Gauze Bandages' as part of the NON EXISTENT first aid preparation in the warehouse of the NON EXISTENT farm...
Somebody pinch me (so I'll know I'm really not dreaming)... :-)
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