I'm setting sail on Sunday with my Family out of Florida for a Seven Day cruise. Although T.Pain would have been fun, we're taking my Mom instead. I've attached here a DXY update and should be able to get out some S&P 500 thoughts out later this evening.
My bias is to buy the DXY while the S&P 500 looks headed for 1220-1236 zone.
Silver's performance last week was a disappointment. There is still some hope we see the low to mid $40s, but that would look like a sell. The $39.50 resistance area has been a "tough nut" to crack. Silver bulls should continue to pay attention to the $34.30 level for support. If that breaks, it will look bleak.
Gold peaked right into our key resistance last week but has failed to attract "follow on" selling. Even on a short term basis, I would not be long the yellow metal here. It looks like we're beginning the c-wave lower in what looks like a triangle.
US Dollar Short Term Update 4JUN11
SP500 Short Term Update 4JUN11
One of my favorite SNL "Shorts": "I'm On a Boat" (Warning, it's explicit)
"I got my swim trunks and my flippy floppies...."
To Prove that I'm not some sort of 'crass' individual who just watches 'expletive-laced' videos, I'll leave you with my favorite poem of all time as well.
This will serve as the QOTD for the remainder of the week, unless AR feels like changing it:
"If" by Rudyard Kipling
If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you;
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
Or, being lied about, don't deal in lies,
Or, being hated, don't give way to hating,
And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise;
If you can dream - and not make dreams your master;
If you can think - and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with triumph and disaster
And treat those two imposters just the same;
If you can bear to hear the truth you've spoken
Twisted by knaves to make a trap for fools,
Or watch the things you gave your life to broken,
And stoop and build 'em up with wornout tools;
If you can make one heap of all your winnings
And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss,
And lose, and start again at your beginnings
And never breath a word about your loss;
If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: "Hold on";
If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with kings - nor lose the common touch;
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you;
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds' worth of distance run -
Yours is the Earth and everything that's in it,
And - which is more - you'll be a Man my son!
18 comments:
Internet connection is 'sort of' expensive on the boat but we tend to buy 60-120 minutes when we're out there. Will do some "speed" check-ins while I'm on the water.
Good luck to everyone in the week ahead.
Vacation bitchez.
My last thoughts before I take off. Someone recently wrote this on some blog:
"Your last ZH link from yesterday really does tell the truth about labor....Notice the acceleration in the Bush years when the big lie that tax cuts and less regulation creates jobs was being promoted as the cure to all of our problems including athlete's foot and toe nail fungus ....
That free markets and unfettered capitalism create jobs.
It was and still is all a big lie to brainwash the sheeple into voting for people who think that tax cuts for billionaires, millionaires and corporations are the way to prosperity.
Why is this important on a trading blog? Personally, it is useful to see that unemployment is getting worse, not better which has long lasting effects on the economy, and all the lies and birth and death adjustments cannot obscure the real rate of decline in employment."
~~~~~~~~~~~
I'll just go ahead and offer a few things in response to these 'memes':
Employment has SUCKED during the entire rally, so it's actually USELESS information for a so-called "trading blog."
And, for those who mindlessly 'diss' the free markets and capitalism, they should probably take a look around their own homes once in awhile and understand how it all 'came to be.'
This sort of shortsightedness is becoming quite common. Just about every single thing we touch or use is a result of some entrepreneur somewhere....who wanted to MAKE MONEY using the 'free markets' and capitalism.
It's quite easy to "forget" all the advancements we've seen in the last One to Two Hundred Years.
We take much for granted, don't we?
"....was being promoted as the cure to all of our problems including athlete's foot and toe nail fungus."
I "googled" Athlete's foot and came up with this company who could offer the cure for a nominal price: http://lamisilat.com/athletes-foot/index.shtml
For "toe nail fungus" this was the first hit on Google: http://www.nailsfungus.org/nail-fungus-treatments.html
Seems like an array of various solutions to choose from.
Now, what would one have done 50, 100, or 200 years ago for such common place issues?
Capitalism has its uses....even if it's for basic ugly things like foot fungus of various kinds.
Later!
Andy T
Yeah, they don't just do it for the "LOVE".
AT, thx for the charts. Have fun on your boat ride :)
I think there are two types of people in this world, givers and takers. I feel I'm a giver, along with most peeps that visit this blog. The government has made a system where just about anyone can become takers. 99% of people could become sucessful but many choose to be lazy and bitch about everything while someone else is paying for their existence.
About unemployment, Obama's men are playing around with the figures here
Oh, was bored for a couple hours today so made an anti-owebama site. I really hope we get another crook in office next term, I just couldn't handle it if Owebama get a second term. He's so two-faced I wanna barf when I hear him speak.
>> This sort of shortsightedness is becoming quite common. Just about every single thing we touch or use is a result of some entrepreneur somewhere....who wanted to MAKE MONEY using the 'free markets' and capitalism.
First, who's saying it's necessary to replace capitalism?? That's what you're expecting our current system's critics to follow up with. But, to me, I see proof that "wealth trickles up" and say "de-distribute the wealth via tax policy, like we did in 1940 through 1979". I don't say "replace decentralized businesses with centralized, government-owned enterprises". No one else says that either.
Second, non-capitalist ideas/products touch your life, too, Andy. Most websites you visit is hosted on GNU/Linux. All GNU software was developed and distributed to NOT make money. Apple's OS isn't Linux but uses GNU tools and Apple wouldn't find Unix-knowledgeable staff without the existence of a vibrant GNU/Linux community. Google's mobile OS is based on Linux. In the absence of Linux, sure, one or more capitalists would've created alternatives to MSFT (and rented it out at oligopolistic prices). But, as you can see, it's possible for non-capitalist endeavors to make huge contributions to society.
So, why does it seem like you think "capitalism" is the one and only answer to everything?
Other examples: Go ask any one pharma company whether they want to risk investing in basic science research. They don't, because they doubt they'll see a payoff. Many advances in science take place only because there's a social investment. Where did the internet even come from? Not from capitalists. Like our highway system, the government did that, too.
Third, would you call what we've had in this country "free markets"? In basic services like "hair cuts" and "restaurants", yeah. But, in markets for more-complex products/services, we have "managed markets". If government were to step out of the picture completely, you end up with "managed markets" managed by monopolies/duopolies/oligopolies. I.e., unregulated centralized decision-making even without government takeover. What do you think is worse? Why must I accept either?
Shorter version of the above: I can embrace competitive markets without accepting this much concentration of wealth.
Other countries are examples. And this country used to be an example as well.
>> No one else says that either.
Well, my statement here is incorrect in some instances/contexts. Government unions want government to be the sole provider of services in certain markets.
QQQQ, I hope Obama loses, too. But, who would be better and who has a chance to win?
The Establishment Media keeps yapping about eeeevery GOP candidate except Ron Paul. And I almost never hear Ralph Nader's name on TV (even though he's responsible for more good legislation than most politicians).
The Media sells a status quo candidate and a too-lazy-to-educate-myself electorate buys one of them.
qqqq, nice "let me be clear" list! :-)
wunsa, let me be clear, I probably shouldn't have made that blog and in no way does it show my true feelings... HA
Think I was a little pissed I got laid off due to funds, like there's not been a bagazillion bucks flying around out of this country, and not staying in the US where it would really help, or, just pull the plug on the bucky printing press for a while.
""...who would be better and who has a chance to win?""
I like Ralph Nader too, but even if he did run, wouldn't get the support needed to get the votes. Huckabee might be good, has a lot of common sense, said he's comfortable just doing his weekly TV show so he's out. 2012 LIST Need to go through the list and see where these peeps stand on issues. All I know, if unemployment and our economy takes a turn for the worse, Owebama may not win, but he does have a warchest full of bucks so that'll buy many votes, and discredit his opponents. I'm just so tired of lies, it's like the national passtime nowadays, and hardly anyone seems to care. Ya know, I never finished high school and know my english isn't great but, it doesn't take much to teach yourself something. Lies and lazy-asses everywhere!
>> Think I was a little pissed I got laid off due to funds.
Sorry to hear that, QQQQ.
I hope you find something within the next few months, because I'm worried the jobs picture will grow worse afterwards. (I'm worried about my own job, again, too.) It's better to find work and, if things go south-er again, get laid off (with some minor severance) than run out of unemployment insurance and show an even-bigger gap on the resume.
wunsa, if I may ask, what do you do?
I'm going back to work, just not sure when. They keep scalping funds from planned projects. Seems they've been doing that since start of 2009, hmmm, that date seems important for some reason. I'm not that worried... yet. Everytime I file for unemployment, I go back to work soon after... we'll see. Can always sell a coin or 2 each month to live if need be.
Q. Do you/anyone think we're close to/or in a recession?
I feel alot of the data on the economy doesn't show the true big picture. Also, my market indicators are like all confused. Glad I yanked my 401K out of the market, I take the 1%/YR with the company match, lets me sleep good :)
Andy,
>> Now, what would one have done 50, 100, or 200 years ago for such common place issues?
I don't know what you think is "different" about economies over the past 200 years that's contributed to our quality of life. But, you're giving considerable credit to a type of "capitalism" you believe originated only in the past 200 years.
Ancient civilizations had trade, markets, private savings/wealth, businesses, etc. What do you think is so new-and-improved about "capitalism" in the past 200 years?
To me, I see mostly "business as usual" combined with accretive-turned-exponential technology growth. What's creating that growth?
In the past 200 years:
- We've gone from less than a billion people on the planet to 7 billion,
- Only 1% work the farms nowadays instead of 80%
- Thanks to oil and farm automation, increasing numbers of people could leave farm jobs and attend state-sponsored higher education programs.
So far, how much of that has to do with changes in "capitalism" the past 200 years? Not much, right?
Now, imagine a graph of "education-adjusted hours of R&D" over the past 200 years. It's exponential, right? So, astonishing advances and improvements in quality of life are pretty much guaranteed. Right?
AT,
thanks for the charts as always. have a nice time on the cruise.
be sure to stay hydrated by drinking plenty of frou frou's.
@Andy
Have fun on the cruise... Be sure to give my regards to TED LANGE while you're out there...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m_wFEB4Oxlo
@wunsa
I'm actually kind of hoping that Owebama wins next year...
It ought to be kind of comical watching him twist around in the wind for the next 4 years...
Plus, the thing I hate about when there are Republicans in the White House is that you have to listen to the incessant cacophony of liberals bitching about things 24/7...
At least when there's a DEM in the WH, they just parade around all day like everything is fine (which it IS if you're a government employee, or Peggy Josepj)...
Interesting read about when derivatives end up on exchanges and the collateral that may be needed by the G14: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/real-margin-threat-600-trillion-exchange-derivatives-moving-central-clearing-multi-trillion-
The vampire squid tentacles are sharp: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304906004576367630763029632.html
Goldman Plans to Fight Back Against Senate Report
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