AUDJPY (weekly info)-no change (above mid)
trend=up
high= 0.8852
rev= 0.8241; mid= 0.8553
The other proxy for risk is getting weaker as it is now trading below its weekly 3LB mid. It's also below its SMA(21). Look for it to test the previous high of 0.8382. The move may happen faster than usual.
CSCO (weekly info)new low 16.00
trend=down
low= 16.00
rev= 16.86; mid= 16.43
Cisco just can't catch a break. It's rapidly approaching its March 2009 low. It's below all of the SMA's. It continues to make new weekly lows. When do they turn on the bat signal?
40 comments:
Whoosh???
May test the weekly 3LB reversal price for SPX today. Will it hold until the close on Friday?
ben22
Your link of Fisher from yesterday was good. The Fed is done supporting (for now). Can the economy and market stay up now that the training wheels are off.
Germany - imports up, exports down. Not what they wanted. http://globalbasic.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=448834&cust=global-basic&year=2011#top
Germany IP: MoM -0.6% (exp 0.2), YoY 9.6% (exp 10.0). Not good either. http://globalbasic.econoday.com/byshoweventfull.asp?fid=448833&cust=global-basic&year=2011#top
Ra,
I don't think the correction is over, my CAT short is going to get even better today but like a moron I had gone long some SPY calls the other day for a bounce....subject to the same bull psychology as everyone else trying to catch a knife in the middle of the downtrend. I'm getting stopped out of those calls in about an hour, $3k loss. The CAT short was a large "core" position and the SPY a swing trade so I'm not too upset with myself.
If today's selling stays strong this is really looking like the expanding triangle Andy T and I were discussing last week. I see an awful lot of people using 1250 as a support but I'm doubtful it'll be that easy, the 161.8% of the A wave for this pattern will bring S&P cash below 1250 but not below 1200, I'm still on the idea that THE top is not in, but we'll see, there may also be a very important top forming in the cumulative A/D line, one of the last pieces to the puzzle for bears.
Also, I think it is clear now that we should be looking at TRIN with Bear goggles or using modified TRIN only, that was most def. a false signal that giant TRIN.
Ra,
here's a thought, QE2 started on 11/12/10 when the S&P closed at 1,199.
So QE "made markets go up" a whopping 7% as it nears its end. Guess we'll re-calc the final results on 6/30.
Also, did you catch Jamie Dimon's question to the Beard yesterday.
You see, the recovery would likely be far better if not for all these pesky rules and regulations.......the one quadrillion in derivatives, oh no problem, see Fisher says that trillion in liquidity will burn a hole in your pocket, Dimon confirms.
CV has been running around doing a bunch of things these past days, so I don't have time to throw witty insults up here...
So for the next few days, you're all just going to have to think of clever and original ways to feel bad about yourselves :-)...
Hot here today & tomorrow... 96&98
So ben, you're going to have to crank up the frou frous... (but remember - DON'T WHEEZE THE JU-UICE)...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h1hEKqZz-OY
here's a thought, QE2 started on 11/12/10 when the S&P closed at 1,199.
So QE "made markets go up" a whopping 7% as it nears its end. Guess we'll re-calc the final results on 6/30.
---
I would argue that QE "started" at Jackson Hole (and, in reality, was front-run, a month before that - in early July)...
But that's just my opinion on how markets "work" depending on your mezzanine level of participation...
CV,
sure QE was front run, but that was a fixed income story, not a stock story. For giggles though, I'd bet you that if we are near 1200 by June 30 meaning QE resulted in basically no stock market increase over its duration, the whole "story" of QE will change.....bank on it, people re-wrote the history of QE1 and now repeat it as fact, why not do it again.
and you are not kidding that it's hot, 100 here today and tomorrow and real humid, thinking a slush machine for the office might be needed this summer.
USDJPY trying to stay above the low from the week ending 1/5/10 of 80.12. It has dipped under there a few times but hasn't closed under it. Yet...
ben22
Your bounce was yesterday morning. A trailing stop would have caught the bulk of the move b4 BB opened his mouth.
"Print, baby, print."
Who wants to buy a 10yr bond with a yield sub 3%?
Greek IP -11% YoY: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8563189/Greek-industrial-output-falls-again.html
And you want to give them another bailout???
ben22
The high TRIN was probably a warning shot.
Scotty: Cap'n. I can't hold'er together for too much longer.
Kirk: Scotty...I need..you to...keep...it...together for a...little...while longer.
Scotty: Cap'n it's too late. We need to eject the core.
Ra,
No doubt, I thought about dumping the SPY calls yesterday for a small gain and didn't do it. I got greedy.
perhaps we just do this all summer, sharp decline, most of it retraced, then back down again.
repeat.
Great game yesterday BTW.
Ra,
I missed the game last night. Damn.
re: CSCO
that is one fugly chart, I sort of had thought about a month or more ago that it would bounce as it neared the bottom of the channel I could see on the chart but it couldn't even get back to the channel mid.
I've got little interest in trying to trade it, I'll just watch that mess from the bleachers, same with RIMM, another nasty looking chart.
ben22
Catching CSCO when it reversed would have been a good move. But as it's approaching recent lows the possibility of a reversal higher looms. That move may remove the oversold condition. Then it should continue lower.
Here comes the market sell off as the auction is in its last 30 min. Must not be a lot of participants. I wouldn't want to hold a 10yr bond at 2.95% when CPI is 3.2%.
Damn. Guess I was wrong. B2C was 3.23 (higher than average) and Indirects took down 50.63%, Directs 8.33% and Primary Dealers 41.04%. How fast can they sell them back to the Fed before POMO ends?
I stand on the bow of the ship with my binoculars and I see it..."Weekly 3LB reversal Hooo!"
SPX six handles higher in under ten minutes. YGBFKM...
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/senate-rejects-pro-bank-swipe-fee-measure-2011-06-08
Senate rejects pro-bank swipe-fee measure
June 8, 2011, 2:30 p.m. EDT
By Ronald D. Orol
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- A legislative measure that would have delayed and curtailed a Federal Reserve debit-card interchange-fee reduction rule was rejected Wednesday afternoon. The measure, which backers sought to attach to a bill that is expected to pass in the Senate, failed to obtain the filibuster proof 60 votes and failed by a vote of 54 to 45. The provision sought to replace a Fed proposal that will be a boon to retailers because it cuts debit interchange fees charged to them by an average of 73%. Shares of Visa (V -4.45%) and Mastercard (MA -3.35%) each dropped over 5 percent after the vote.
HY getting crushed by IG as HYG/LQD is -0.70% today.
@Ben and AmenRA
First the background:
I was having drinks with three friends a couple of years ago...two gallery curators and a painter. We were sampling single malts...which prompted a call for some Cuban cigars (legal in Canada)...at which point the rounds were running over a $100 a pop. I passed on the cigars, pulled out a $20...and when lighting theirs...I torched the bill.
A considerable amount of drama ensued...not only from my table, but a couple of adjacent ones as well. (You effin a-hole, etc.) Performance piece complete and irony finally noted. However, the subject of my "respect for money" is still noted by these dudes to this day.
Further to this, I noticed a gallery show yesterday (in Rotterdam) entitled "The End of Money".
Art debate aside...and if you've got the time...I'm curious as to what prompted interest and career decisions in fin management, markets, trading, etc.? (childhood experience, circumstantial, visceral, intellectual)
My intent isn't snoopy...more sociological.
B22, ur CAT puts doing fine!
me... meh
SLV calls, suck! took a small loss, still holding 50 contracts though. Silver building up for a big move... up or down, not sure.
LNKD puts up about 50%, bot more (to many!) yesterday, PE=1138... EPS=$0.07, LMAO
SPY puts, cashed out, bot @1.30ish-1.50, sold 2.20ish, prolly due for a bounce like you said. I'll wait for the next set-up.
TBT calls... even, should be out of these, really
Great story, thanks for sharing.
Draw the lines, 15min chart, last 5 days...
1314 (18)
...1305 (18.5)
1296 (18)
...1287 (18.5)
1278 (18)
you know the direction, trade the lines
that sounded smug, sorry, meant to say "if you know the direction"
5min chart 18's lines shows it better
Mel,
I've said this before but I'd bet outside of CV you've got more interesting stories than everyone else here combined.
My real passion for markets and trading only came about a year into my job, before that it was more a hobby for me, I was not a student of the game, more like a very curious observer with no money.
Strange enough, I got involved with this job because I was really into this idea that I could show people how to maximize their ability to get financial aid just by making sure they had their money in the right spots. I was very pie in the sky about the world, listening to a lot of Dave Matthews and such, lol, see: very naive. I used to do college planning seminars at high schools all over the place around here when I first started as I don't mind talking in front of groups.
Where'd that idea come from? My parents didn't make much money at all growing up and had no assets so of course weren't very interesting for most advisors, like most people in that boat we had no clue how FA worked at the time. Not that I regret the work but I worked almost full time my first two years of college to help pay for school and reality is I would have gotten a lot more aid had we known how things worked. I knew tons of kids just like me at PSU, so I figured there was a market for this. Not that I'm some saint saying this, I just thought I'd create a niche, I found out pretty quick though I was not the only advisor with this plan....pfft.
Reality today though is that I really hate doing college planning for people, just the truth.
Q's,
Nice going on the LNKD especially, I like that moxie.
I executed poorly on my SPY swing play but the CAT options are indeed working out really well.
the gift and the curse
Has this been posted?
huge explosion on the sun yesterday
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hyi4hjG6kDM
B22, I've had to many curses! but seems to have more winning trades when more risk is involved... understandable I guess
probably plan your trades out more in those instances, I know I do.
I posted about the sun blast on another blog last night, noboday hangs out here at night, lots of cool vids of it on the web
it was massive
rumor has it Bernanke caused it....he moves heaven and Earth, after all.
Mel
When I realized my retirement package from my job wasn't going to cut it. I figured I would need additional funds and I wasn't keen on being a Walmart greeter. Just sayin'.
@ Jennifer
Everybody's got a great story or two lurking in the background...it's just a matter of putting them down. It's all relative...I don't have any kids, so PBJ and PTA fascinate me.
@QQQQ
Now watch out for eclipses on the 15th and July 1. If Rattlesnake is in Idaho...take a jaunt up to Calgary. A lot of gigs are going crying in the centre of the global commods universe.
@Ben
Thanks for sharing. A bit of pie in the sky isn't a bad recipe in the face of a mostly cynical world. You remind me a lot of the acct. (now deceased) in Century City who had me in AU and Socal RE in '74. If it wasn't for an honest broker at the time, I might be dumpster diving today. Your commentary and reach go considerably further than you may suspect...and much appreciated.
The question I posed earlier is open to anyone who wants to respond. Part of the intent, of course, is to open up a bit more commentary and dialogue.
@ B22, the sun just fascinates me, ya know it grows and shrinks at times!
@Mel, I'm stuck in Reno now, rattlesnake mountain is near where I'm staying, maybe not the real name, not sure. It's only 400-500' hill but locals call it a mountain. Didn't see any rattlesnakes though. Oh, and I agree with your comments about B22, well thought out, common sense comments.
@wunsa, hey, go back to work for a week, 6/27-6/30...LOL, messes up my unemployment claims because CA now counts using vacation pay as income, even though I really earned it long ago and I choose when to receive it... pfft. Will be working on top of Sugarloaf mountain, northern CA, wherever the hell that is! (prolly in the middle of weed growing country!)
thanks guys, I really do appreciate it
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