GOLD (weekly info)-no change (above mid)
trend=up
high= 1557.30
rev= 1475.00; mid= 1516.15
The trend higher in gold has not stopped even after the hard selling a month ago. Looking at the chart it seems that most dojis or spinning tops resolve higher. It's also well above its weekly and monthly 3LB mids. All SMA's are pointing higher.
SILVER (weekly info)-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=down (2 bars)
low= 35.01
rev= 48.60; mid= 41.81
Usually silver and gold move together. That correlation has been shot to hell. It has not traded above the mid of the long bearish candle from a month ago (unlike gold). It's below its weekly and monthly 3LB mids. This week looks like the third test of SMA(21) and it appears to be failing. And it's gone.
COPPER (weekly info)-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=down (2 bars)
low= 3.976
rev= 4.615; mid= 4.296
Copper is a proxy for the global economy. If that's so then things are not doing so well. It's below its weekly 3LB mid and again failing its monthly 3LB mid. This is the fifth week below SMA(21). The high (4.130) from the week of 11/12/10 has been breached so the next support comes in at the the high (3.784) from the week ending 4/16/10.
Gold/Silver Ratio (weekly info)-no change (above mid)
trend=up
high= 43.259
rev= 32.629; mid= 37.944
65 comments:
Some "FUN WITH BARRY" to start the day...
Earlier this week:
"Unemployment was 25% at its Depression peak; the 2007-09 Recession never saw U3 Unemployment get over 12%. (BLS)"
"Following the 1929 crash, broad stock market losses were more than 75% (Peak to trough Dow losses were 89%). 2007-09 stock losses were 50-57%."
Never let the facts get in the way of a good narrative!
Then yesterday:
"I am more inclined to be a bear here than the metrics suggest, but over the long haul, I have learned to trust the data rather than my instincts."
---
In summary... The self proclaimed Libertarian staunch defender of the policies which have lessened the impact of the GREAT RECESSION (because - of course of the "data" - like the inconvenient truth that U3 data has been displaced by U6 data [as measured in the GR], or, that the DOW, to a degree, was able to avoid the 1929 numbers because it kicked out GM, BAC, & C and replaced them)...
Well - don't let those underlying facts get in the way of YOUR facts that lead you to trusting that data versus your instincts...
...and PLEASE keep informing us all how you've been quietly moving to the sidelines in 'selected' positions the day AFTER a 300 point market dump...
@Amen Ra
Any way of adding a GSR chart into the mix above???
@Amen
The reason I'd like to see the GSR chart is because, UNLIKE BARRY, I like to use my 'instincts' a little...
Just looking at the gold or silver charts, to me, is like the classic DATA view (which would probably lead one to be bearish silver here)...
I still think there's time for that quick strike up to a "4" handle (maybe only for a day)...
So I'd kind of like to see what the 'look' of that is on the GSR chart and if there's any context to what was happening back in Jan/Feb...
cv--
on a recent Thread, you had mentioned the possibility of 'Stocking Up' on Blue Jeans..
what did you mean by that?
another thing I noticed, yesterday, at the 'Informal market', were 'second-hand' Jeans trading for U$D ~3.5, and, similar, Levi's @ U$D 5.
though, I will note, again, that seeing those 'Copper Rounds', trading for 3 1/2 'Dollars' was really something else..
AAIP
I guess you'd have to ask Barry, what data?
because most of the stuff mentioned in that thread have nothing to do with trading markets, not yet come across the person that got rich in markets because they know how U3 or U6 currently compares to all historical levels, despite the fact they aren't calculated the same.......ok.
Regardless, just laugh about it, "selective trimming" can be translated to "stopped out" for example
and don't look now, but one nasty day and next thin you know, the awesome "soft patch" has come roaring back to the financial media.
Also, I think it's fair to state that the majority of market participants are counting on QE3 and today real smart pundits are saying that yesterday's ADP might add a little to the idea of this happening, presumably because they are thinking that QE3 "stimulates" .....something, but if it's stated in relation to ADP, I'm thinking that something is 'the economy' they are talking about.
Ok, QE benefits the economy then, I'll play along.
but as was speculated here 8 months ago, the Fed has then made a big tactical error in the timing of the implementation of QE2 rather than when they started and ended QE1. Here we are prior to QE2 ending and virtually all of the economic data has been coming in "soft patchy" for many weeks now.
I'd look for the conversation around QE's "benefits" to differ over the coming months.
In the meantime, there's dough-boy Karl on CNBC wondering if it's just "lag time" with QE, literally while I'm typing this.
classic.......in other words, the lack of economic benefit from QE2 is simply........transitory
and IF that idea on the expanding triangle is correct, and we find ourselves potentially all the way down at 1220 in markets, then by the end of QE2 even the stock market will have a gain over the period of basically 0.00%.
magic.
@AAIP
Practically any time I say "blue jeans" I'm just referring to a proxy on COTTON...
That cotton chart is kind of fascinating to me... Here are two simple (fairly un-technical) things I see...
- it has a huge gap down from back in April... More than that gap is that there were never many candle days painted around that price range during the commodity run-up...
- Further... The chart 'looks' 3 peaks & a domed house-ish (tho I don't know the exact technical qualifiers there)... I tend to just notice things and interpret them visually...
Anyway... So what does that say?... Possibilities:
- Probably a decent chance that those upper gaps will get filled...
- What if they do, and the market gets a 'foothold' there... & if the 3p&adh thing is correct... Then, you'd need a DOME, right? Probably that would be extending 12 months out...
But you never know... It's just... could happen...
Somewhere in the back of my mind is that a QE3 type announcement might have more of an impact of SOFT commodities (vs. metals) on the next trip around the block... Why? For two reasons...
1. There was too much ballyhoo over gold & silver & fiat destruction recently... So instead, a QE3 might actually force bennybucks into anything from wheat, to rice, to cotton, etc. (practically anything in the DBA basket)... After all, price increases THERE could always be blamed on the WEATHER right?
2. If gold & silver settle down more or less over the next year (let's call it - the QE3 thru the 2012 elections period), and just trade in a range... Then the public will forget about them, and the bankers will quietly buy themselves enough of a physical supply...
Hell, I don't know how this is all going to play out... This is just CV JTOL in my strategy sessions with... myself (since very few people seem interested in my kooky ideas)...
So just as I have stocked up on food in past years... It may be a good time to buy about a dozen pair of jeans... It's not like they have an expiration date or anything... Pretty handy 'barter' items as well (only problem there are the different sizes)... Whiskey is still better in that category...
& diapers! don't forget the diapers
classic.......in other words, the lack of economic benefit from QE2 is simply........transitory
and IF that idea on the expanding triangle is correct, and we find ourselves potentially all the way down at 1220 in markets, then by the end of QE2 even the stock market will have a gain over the period of basically 0.00%.
magic
---
Precisely! Magic!
It's called 'kick the can' (no offense to cans)...
You see... One you grasp that the IDEA of QE-whatever IS NOT to help the economy... Instead, it's designed to get the government into deeper & deeper debt, so they're on the hook for more and more payments to the bankers, then you know everything...
1. The 401K holders continue to see the market rise and fall (and as long as it doesn't CRASH - they'll play along)...
2. More and more 'poor' just go on food stamps
3. You time it all with election cycles so as to keep the constant circulation of the idea that someone will come along to "fix it"
4. You punctuate those dead areas with:
- NFL, NBA, DWTS, American 'Idle', etc.
5. Toss in European banking crises for good measure...
---
Extend & pretend bitchez... Try to achieve the GLIDEPATH to dollar destruction... Give the bankers enough time to paper short spot commodity prices all the while... Collecting the 'physical' precious with the other hand...
The QE's are just the liquidity injections to do just that...
So YEAH... QE has nothing to do with the economy (or economic conditions)... It has everything to do with bankers printing themselves enough paper to buy all the assets...
CV
Keynesian Endpoint
we're living it
@ben22
Yup...
Funny thing is though... The KE seems to take longer than what I would have expected...
---
Now (for 2 years), I've been able to witness it in all its glory...
I've come to the conclusion that there are actually other levers to pull...
I'd NEVER considered those levers before (because I'd presumed at least some attempt at honesty or integrity - DEFINITELY my gravest error in calculation)... Instead, now I see that the theft occurs, not only in front of your face, and in broad daylight... But more... It's accomplished in a "mocking way" almost...
TOO BIG TO JAIL
So that's why I basically decided, a year ago, that there's only one way to play the game... That is...
- Assume THEY'LL win (which is hateful in sound - but probably practical as there are numerous historical examples of this, ICELAND being the only standout exception to my recent knowledge)...
- Hedge your lifestyle against it...
In the end, it's really not about PRESERVATION of WEALTH, (as it is tabulated in fiat terms - because in the end - deflation wipes that all out)... Instead, it's about getting your wealth transferred from one failed regime to the next concoction (which will eventually fail as well)...
This most recent one had a 100 year lifetime... I suppose that's pretty good...
So anyone lucky enough to have fiats pouring in at the moment, better put 'em to use in getting accomplished something useFUL...
- some food
- some jeans
- fix all things that need repair in the house
- get some spare parts
- stack the woodpile
- get some food & water containers
IOW...
Nothing different than CV has been saying all along...
CV,
did you watch too big to fail yet?
it was the biggest bunch of crap I think I've seen in a while
ben22
Understatement. As if Paulson really cared or Geithner was extremely worried.
CV
GSR added for your perusal.
BTD doesn't seem to be working. Those who bought may have to bail faster than they expected.
all heros Ra, well, not dick Fuld, but everyone else, especially Warren Buffett
Gods among men really
at least according to Andrew Ross Sorkin, an authority
@ben.
Had not seen that movie yet....
Thanks for the advice on it. Will probably have to skip it.
Andy T
Watch it for the humor. Unlike J6P many of us have more insight into what happened.
ben22
Buffett with his grandkids. C'mon man!
Paulson worried about the financial system. He was worried about his buddies losing everything. C'mon man!
http://www.businessinsider.com/jp-morgan-commodities-boom-q1-2011-6
Guess JPMorgan not going out of business yet.
BTW did anyone notice that there was no gap up/down at the open yesterday or today? Not sure if that's significant.
@Amen
Thanks...
@ben
'Too Big to Fail'??? What was it a movie documentary or something?
@Andy @ben
Y'all ought to try to do some kind of wave count on that GSR chart just for kicks... see what you come up with...
What strikes me as interesting (on the GSR chart)...
Is that, first, it's a WEEKLY chart, and the longest MA of them all is the 144 week MA (the brown line)...
Look how it seems to have just rolled over and is now headed downwards ever so slightly...
More... Look WHERE it rolled over (pretty close to 61.8%)... That's even more interesting when you consider that the RATIO was around 100 at some point a few years ago... and 0 would represent gold & silver at parity (which is hardly concievable, but nevertheless 'possible' is some weird universe...
Shhhh!!! SPX is testing its monthly 3LB mid. Don't tell the algos.
AR, it's also testing 1314 which has held 4 times recently... next stop
...1305
1296
1278
1260
qqqq
I use a fibonacci retrace on the monthly 3LB range.
1310.62 (50% retrace)
1298.12 (61.8% retrace)
Southern states already hitting 100's, may be a hot summer. Funny though, drove over the sierra nevada mountains (I-80) yesterday and had to use tire chains, what a mess!
It's getting close to hide your wife and hide your kids time.
Always hide your wife and never let her and the girls within 25 rows of a stage.
AR, can't change the static 18's :(
They may have been set by someone with a higher authority than me, and then, someone probably threw in some algo's along the way to fudge with it.
1305.xx ... see what happens, but, 1296 seems like a magnet
qqqq
I just add them to a list of things that I look at. but each time I see 18 I think 9. So to carry out your theory a little more by adding cents to narrow down the price even more.
1305.09, 1305.18, 1305.27, 1305.36, 1305.45, 1305.54, 1305.63, 1305.72, 1305.81, 1305.90.
1+3+0+5=9
JTOL
I'm gonna double my gas mileage, and more!...
1st, I'll install this. It will give me 50% savings, so he states... ""I Achieved ~50% Increase MPG"".
Then, I'll but some Michelin tires that save a few percent. I'll get a Shell gas card that gives up to $1.00 per gallon, That about 25%, if I buy a truckload of food at Smiths to receive the bonus that is. I'll get fat but I'll be saving.
I'll buy a Prius, just doubled my mileage! (50% savings)
Going to drive no more than 55, that should save 10-20% from my normal 70-80MPH when traveling. It'll also reduce the risk of expensive tickets. I'll use the extra time it takes to get somewhere to eat all of the extra food I buy at Smiths so this will work out just fine... fat and happy!
It's getting close to hide your wife and hide your kids time.
It's the TITANIC again... But this time... Gold bars first... Then women & children...
OT...
But the older Cameron Diaz gets, the more she looks like the Joker from Batman...
@Amen
on the subject of "9"'s...
Tomorrow is 9/11...
(6)June + (3)day/'11
cv -
you mean this cameron diaz??
As ES Realized Vol Continues Spike, It Is Time For The CME To Hike ES Margins To "Protect Investors"
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/es-realized-vol-continues-spike-it-time-cme-hike-es-margins-protect-investors
"The CME's decision to lower ES margins two days ago may enter trader folklore as the most incompetent decision ever made (and we won't get all tinfoily on them: after all we know the CME doesn't see to manipulate markets with margin moves: they told us so themselves). Which is why in order to keep up with the exchange's primary prerogative of "intense focus on risk management" it is now time to not only undo that decision but to actually hike ES margins. Because as the chart below shows, since the margin cut on May 31, realized vols have surged!"
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/images/Margin%20Hike%202.jpg
Silver margin REDUCTION in 5...4...3...2...
@72
No... I mean THIS Cameron Diaz...
http://img60.imageshack.us/img60/3155/joker2az.jpg
My sincere apologies for any offense towards any:
- circus clowns
- court jesters
- game shows starring Wink Martindale
- or decks of playing cards
in that last message
anon posting message to chastize CV for doing so coming up in 5...4...3...2..
my mistake. i see the resemblance now
I prefer this Cameron Diaz.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/entertainment/movies/cameron-diaz-not-into-hair-gel-something-about-mary-scene/story-e6frexli-1111117655061
New Greece deal: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/02/markets-stocks-idUSN0229765720110602
quote:
A new three-year adjustment plan for Greece was agreed in principle by senior euro-zone officials, according to a source close to the negotiations.
More threats:
NEW YORK, June 2 | Thu Jun 2, 2011 1:40pm EDT
NEW YORK, June 2 (Reuters) - The prices of longer-dated U.S. debt hit session lows on Thursday after Moody's Investors Services said the U.S. risks a credit rating downgrade if the legal borrowing limit is not increased.
Ok this is getting weird. TICKS has been jumping from -700 to +700 repeatedly. Buyers and sellers are having a knock down, drag it out fight.
That didn't take too long: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/eu-commission-denies-agreement-new-greek-aid-plan
This almost made me vomit: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/next-stop-dow-20000-2011-06-02
It's JA...
AT,
for people that come to this site that movie will only serve to annoy, I'd imagine you'd enjoy AND learn more watching The Hangover pt 2.
@QQQQ, 12:20
sounds like a plan, of course, this idea is being tossed around:
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20047201-503544.html
so they may just eliminate all your savings anyway, seems like you spend time on those loooong stretches of highway out west eh?
Postal Service Anecdote:
We've got this really overweight lady that delivers mail to our office. She's on the bluetooth all the time...very slow walker....basically the last person i'd hire to deliver mail.
I passed her in the hallway today and heard her say this verbatim: "Girlfriend, you need to get that Doctor's note. Then, they 'have' to give you four weeks off."
That's the Spirit!
Wow, that James Altucher article is amazing conservative for him. We're talking about the guy who says his valuation methodology puts Apple at 2 Trillion USD.
It seems like he would be talking about the Dow at 200,000
aaah ben, what i'm looking forward to is when a snapshot-like device is standard (read required) on every vehicle:
With Snapshot, Progressive’s usage-based insurance program, you could turn your good driving into huge savings—of up to 30 percent—on your car insurance.
Here’s how our usage-based insurance program works*:
1. Enroll online.
Sign up for Snapshot when you quote and buy your Progressive car insurance policy.
2. Plug the device into your car.
We’ll mail your Snapshot device to you, along with details on where to plug it into your car.
3. Drive as you normally do.
For the next 30 days, you’ll keep track of your good driving habits with the Snapshot device. You can log in to your Progressive policy anytime to see your projected Snapshot DiscountSM.
GROUPON files IPO $750MM
Anything to keep the market from crashing into the close.
I guess Google's new service forced their hand.
72,
wow, had not seen those things, not sure what is "good driving" but my guess is I would get no discount, going 80 on I95 is a slower day for me. Hey, I'm just going with the flow though (see herding)
As for Groupon,
I don't get it, I signed up for three days, total crap deals on stuff I had no interest in, maybe I didn't sign up long enough? It's about as interesting to me as LNKD, which is that I have no interest at all.
an on-line coupon shop is worth 3/4 of a billion?
underpriced for sure......lol.
AT,
Nice, that sounds about right, I'm considering starting a blog that "covers" DelDOT, I've got lots of ideas in mind.
but here's a thought, as much as people like to bash greedy bankers or those evil Kochs, it would seem to me that the individual often/most fo the time? has the same exact motivations, people are scamming 24/7, just trying to "get theirs".
anyway, i gotta go, they just passed medical mary jane in DE, been having these migrains lately, off to get a note.
ben -
gradual introduction of snapshot as a throw-away end-tagline on their tv ads for some time now. just saw an ad the last day or two in which the device is held up for view to the simpleton customer.
"We’ll mail your Snapshot device to you, along with details on where to plug it into your car."
i have an idea where they can plug their device.
72bat
Great. So now the police don't have to send you a speeding ticket. It'll be added to your coverage and transferred to the associated police department once paid.
ra -
yeah. i like the slick language crafting
"...you’ll keep track of your good driving habits..." as opposed to "we'll (and who else?) keep track of your (reckless) driving habits"
how many folks are going to swallow (so to speak) this device?
72bat
It's bad enough Onstar can track you and the cars computer keeps your driving record. Someone must have found a way to defeat them so now there's the third option.
"There is no Greece. It is not Greece that's insolvent. It is you."
I heard of a lawyer in Florida that is helping people fight the camera tickets and he's pissing a lot of people off
heard a very interesting radio interview with him a week or three ago.
Is the Spanish PM's plan still working "to the letter"
that was easily the best CNBC interview I remember in the last 12 months....spanish PM, he lied in response to every single question, with a nice smile of course.
SPX trying to avoid closing below last weeks low. May trigger an avalanche of STC orders.
"how many folks are going to swallow (so to speak) this device?"
If they coupled it with some sort of safety feature "for the kids" then I'd imagine it'd be very popular, like, billion dollar IPO popular.
you can get your RFID chip while your at it too, just think, if your child is kidnapped then we can find them right away and even better if the kidnapper steals your baby AND your car we've still got it covered!
mothers everywhere would never have to worry again, I mean, after all, since they started to X-ray my junk at the airport I rest easy knowing no harm can come my way.
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