IWM/SPY (weekly info)-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=up (1 bar)
high= 0.6349
rev= 0.6013; mid= 0.6181
Liquidity is disappearing. Not only did IWM/SPY close bow its weekly 3LB mid it closed below the lower edge of the triangle. Plus it closed below its SMA(21). This week might be forming a bullish harami but we're not in a downtrend. But unless it closes above last weeks mid it won't be too bullish.
90 Day UST (weekly info)-no change (below mid)
trend=down
low= 0.020
rev= 0.090; mid= 0.055
Interesting. It's moving higher before the FOMC meeting. Now trading above its weekly 3LB mid. Is the bond market about to let the Fed know ZIRP is doomed?
30 Yr Bond (weekly info)-no change (above mid)
trend=up
high= 125.812
rev= 124.312; mid= 125.062
The 30 yr bond seems to have run into resistance the last few weeks in its move higher. It can't break through its 23.6% retrace with any authority. The last four weeks have had lower lows. Too may spinning tops in a row is a sign of serious indecision. So when the move happens it should be fast and furious.
Is it that time?
55 comments:
Just read through last night's thread. On the subject of "electronic currency," I'll share this little tidbit. My kids' little Catholic school has approximately 350 families enrolled. We've had a growing problem with tuition collection for various reasons (people who come for all day kindergarten and then switch to the public schools for first grade, people who are ticked off and don't pay the second half of the year for their graduating 8th grader, "the economy", etc.) so we've switched to using a tuition management program. As part of this program, registration and tuition payments are all conducted online, and all the school fees (milk, hot lunch, IM sports, etc) are rolled into the tuition total and paid the way you choose. The choices are ACH, either one lump sum or monthly, or credit card with a 2% surcharge to cover the fees. There were 10-15 families with strong objections to this new system. None of them wanted to pay with a credit card b/c they didn't want to be responsible for the surcharge (we used to just charge more in tuition to offset the fee) and they didn't want to use ACH because they didn't want to reveal bank account info. The business office agreed to special accomodations this year for this small group, who all had to pay in full for the year in advance by check or cash. One guy actually came in w/ 7 grand in cash to pay for his 2 kids. Lots of comments about not trusting the internet, not trusting electronic payments, etc.
@Jennifer
That's a good anecdotal story...
Trust is 'waning' in these things (if you ask me)... People are opting more to AVOID rather than to SIGN ON...
BITCOIN may happen after all, but here's how:
With a friggin BARCODE tattooed to your forehead (you being a good citizen of 'Oceania' [1984] and all that)...
Mark of the beast... Revelation 13:16-17
Something not commented upon in this week's numbers...inventories are up 2.1% in the last two months...this seems the most inopportune time to be building inventories in this, what appears to be, a prolonged "transitory soft patch"...
Could be both kinds of recession ahead for late summer...
Lefty,
Comments on 2.9 on the ten year this morning in your bond summary tonight...I'd like to see your ideas on timing....
QR codes CV...and its already happening:
The Canadian Government already embeds a QR code on the front page of their online PDF application form for passports.
As the form is filled out, the code is updated. This presumably permits faster automatic scanning when the printed application form is processed.
You can tell the market is hoping the Philly Fed is inline or BTE. If not then WHOOSH!
Full Disclosure: None of what I'm about to put down here is my own research, I just took it all from EWI, just figured people may find some interest from here and may want to look into it on their own.
Bitcoin:
What it is:
bitcoin.org or mybitcoin.com or freebitcoins.appsopt.com
Created by a cryptography expert named Satoshi Nakamoto it is the first completely decentralized, anonymous, electronic currency. Bitcoins are divisible digital tokens that can be exchanged across the internet or stored on a disk. They have no central issuer unlike fiat currency. Eventually new issuance of Bitcoin will end. Transactions with bitcoin are private and anonymous, no third party can spy on overall transactions. Confiscation of bitcoins are nearly impossible. They also point out that it's different from Gold stating that gold has the advantage of thousands of years of historical precedent as money as well as the fact that it has physical form. The disadvantage of gold is that ownership cannot be transferred electronically or with paper certs without a central repository (see the issues with E-Gold and Liberty Dollar)
the amount of services using bitcoin is currently small but growing, you can see these as resources:
bitcoin.org/trade For an overview of the entire bitcoin economy go to Bitcoinwatch.com
Ohhh Philly Fed -7.7 consensus was 9.0
How it works:
users have a balance stored in their account. Balances change by sending or receiving bitcoins in transactions. A transactions means ownership changes from one account to another specifying the payer account, the amount, and the receiver account. When you make a transaction you apparently announce the details of it publicly.
Each user can render a digital signature which serves you like a handwritten one. Before you announce the transaction the payer signs the transaction with the idea being that everyone can look at a publicly announced transaction and know the paying account owner truly agreed to that transaction (just think what banks do with your dollars now, if people really knew what went on with bank deposits I'd suspect many people wouldn't use banks)
Establishin Consensus:
There must be consensus regarding the validity of transactions. To do this transactions are grouped into blocks which are strung together in something they call a block chain. By helping to build this chain, users earn small transaction fees. (this part I'm still trying to understand)
Initial Issuance
To bring these into circulation those who construct the block chain are rewarded with newly issued coins in addition to any transaction fees. The amount of new coins awarded will decrease over time, eventually reaching zero when there is a total of 21 million bitcoins (I have no idea the rationale behind that exact number)
one thing though that people may say is that it can't work because there is no physical existence, but that argument holds no water, US dollars after all are nothing at all, the dollar itself isn't valuable but it represents value, just like a bitcoin.
Prechter, always compelling with his writing said this in yestedays update:
"Needless to say, the federal government and federal reserve will do anything to protect their dollar-printing monopoly. bitcoins are a triple threat to authoritarians: They can never be inflated for political purposes, they cannot easily be taxed through intermediary institutions; and they allow trade to take place anonymously, enabling sellers to offer such outlawed goods as medicine unapproved in America and freedom literature banned in China. Having monetary liberty and privacy equal to - in fact, even greater than - that of a hundred years ago seems unthinkable, but bitcoin makes it possible"
but again, I just want to note that EWI realizes that bitcoin has not yet proven it can last long term, time will tell.
hope this is helpful, or you can check out the links for more info if you want.
LOL:
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/hockey/2011/06/15/2011-06-15_riot_police_try_to_contain_chaos_fires_in_vancouver_after_canucks_lose_stanley_c.html
At this rate VIX may break 22 today.
Interesting stuff Ben. Thanks for the follow up.
I need to let my mind "marinade" on that one for a little while.
@ben
Thanks for that explanation...
But I stand by my initial premise that 'transactions' occur within or without the jurisdictions of countries with laws...
I mean, in a way, it's like online poker accounts... It's illegal to gamble (except where it's not)... It's illegal to engage in prostitution or do drugs (except in Manhattan & in the Hamptons)...
Anyway, anything you do electronically is monitored & recorded...
So TO ME, it has less to do with 'commerce' or 'transactions', and more to do with TPTB finding ways to shut it all down (for your 'safety' of course)...
I can't just go around and say, 'Oh I'm exempt because I'm using BITCOIN'...
---
I'm not arguing this properly, just pointing out the various flaws...
And this is the part that really made me laugh...
'ESTABLISHING A CONSENSUS'... Har-dee-har-har...
Name me one place that THAT ever happens... Except on poodle blogs...
It's like "re-inventing the wheel"...
Oh... A wheel isn't good enough for our high tech society these days, so let's RE-INVENT it...
We'll call it a "digital wheel"... Here's what it looks like (an architectural design)...
111010101010101101101101011010101101010110101010100101010101010100000010101010101111010110110101011010101000010000010011001010111110101101110101001001010101001010101
You can use that on the front of your wheelbarrow to haul your Reichmarks to the store to buy a loaf of bread...
Reminds me of that "2nd Life" thing on the internet...
Which reminds me of a funny story...
When I was bored out of my mind in Italy (when that 2nd Life thing came out)... I decided to check it out just to see what it was all about...
Anyway - you create your own avatar, & yada yada...
So then you enter thru the portal and you're walking around this, whatever, place, and there are various things to do (bars, clubs, what have you)...
So I go walking around and inside this club are all these 'hippish' looking male avatars... Then I see a crowd of them, and I wonder what the hell is going on... They're all crowded around this one female avatar (who is topless)... All trying to talk to her...
I mean C'Mon man! How lame is that? For all anybody knew, it was Barney Frank, or Anthony Weiner...
I'm sure bitcoin will be a lot different though (rolls eyes)...
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/imf-continues-to-support-greece-amid-crisis-2011-06-16
IMF continues to support Greece amid crisis
By Wallace Witkowski
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The International Monetary Fund said Thursday it continues to support Greece on the condition the country adopts economic policy reforms. "Progress is being made in the discussions to ensure the full financing of the program, and we anticipate a positive outcome on this at the next Eurogroup meeting," said Caroline Atkinson, IMF director of external relations, in a statement. Earlier, Olli Rehn, the European Union's commissioner for economic and monetary affairs, said he was confident that euro-zone finance ministers will approve on Sunday the next round of loans to Greece for early July.
C'mon man!!! Stop trying to boost markets with headlines.
I always wondered how Obama paid for peggy Joseph's gas & mortgage...
Here's a clue...
http://beta.news.yahoo.com/blogs/lookout/struggling-single-mom-sells-obama-letter-153110485.html
Maybe she could get a BITCOIN account for it...
CV,
"Anyway, anything you do electronically is monitored & recorded"
As I'm to understand this is in fact impossible due to the way bitcoin is set up, I'd be careful to draw this conclusion without looking into it a little bit further.
I'm with EWI in that I also think this is what we are headed to with money, it might not be bitcoin but it's how I envision the transition to global currency, all electronic.
If that's the endgame I'm not pretending to know the middle, however, I still don't believe we'll revert to using gold and silver primarily in the middle.
Yeah... I'm pretty sure the people involved with these transactions just CAN'T WAIT for bitcoin (so that their transactions will go a lot smoother)...
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_ylt=AkeQbI_x_uJRqjQKplVJBUw5nYcB?slug=ap-gangbeating-sextape
@ben
It's called 'hubris' (I'm not singling YOU out, or trying to make YOU the poster boy - I'm just talking about human HUBRIS in general)...
Remember... THE DARK AGES came 'after' the Roman Empire...
And that's just Western civilization (or lack thereof)... Same cycles have happened in Eastern Cultures as well...
& this sounds crazy (but it partly explains my POV)...
I really don't think 'civilization' only really dates back to the Sumerians...
In fact, I believe that there's a good chance that highly advanced human civilizations have existed for many millenia in the past... Perhaps many that had technologies far superior than what we're so proud of today...
Question is... If they existed, what happened to them?
EXACTLY!
Like yesterday (but not as bad) Trin & PC Ratio are treading water just above 1.00.
AUDJPY, EURJPY, EURCHF all down -0.45% or more.
EURUSD has already turned back down (how long was the half-life?).
The triangle on the SPX 5-min chart has its apex around 13:35. Just sayin'
SPX info
76.4%= 1277.73
Daily 3LB mid= 1276.71
85.4%= 1266.79
EMA200= 1262.84
S1= 1259.42
SMA200= 1257.89
I have no idea what may or may not become the new currency. Or which currency will dominate. As long as something is agreed upon for bartering purposes. That's what matters.
CV,
my 12:18 wasn't about me taking anything personal. I'm just trying to accurately describe how this thing works and was pointing out that based on what I've read these transactions can't be monitored due to the way they are designed.
I can't believe marketwatch had this article: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/greece-isnt-priced-in-and-neither-is-ireland-2011-06-16
Greece isn’t priced in, and neither is Ireland
Commentary: A slow-motion train wreck is still a train wreck
By MarketWatch
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — It’s not a huge shock that Greece is struggling to implement a new austerity package and that Europe’s most important institutions — Germany, France, the European Central Bank and the European Commission — can’t agree on what to do next. Read more...
Vix now over 22...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/art-cashin-compares-weeks-action-days-black-friday
quote:
By the closing bell, the ugliness had not lifted. The breadth was negative and outright atrocious. It was a “90% down day” and, we think, the third or fourth in this selloff. It not only erased all of the gains of the prior two days, it took us to new lows for this down leg.
At the post close seminar of the Friends of Fermentation, the chatter about the echoes of 2008 grew a bit louder and more animated. A few of the geriatric veterans were a bit more somber and reflective.
They recalled another volatile expiration week that followed a growingly aggressive selloff from a high only weeks before. That was not 2008. It was 1987. But that’s so unlikely, right? Pass the peanuts, please!
MUST...NOT...BREACH...EMA200...AGAIN!!!
Damn, Vix now over 23.
Bounce? You call that thing a bounce? Bulls got nothin'.
Apple looks punk as shit. That 320-325 zone coming back into play again.
I don't think I'll be buying this dip ...
We have enjoyed owning our modest number of SPY puts and UUP calls the last few days. We wished we owned more.
@Amen
I have no idea what may or may not become the new currency. Or which currency will dominate. As long as something is agreed upon for bartering purposes
---
Well I suppose if you don't either have internet, or an iPhone, or some other electronic device, then you can consider yourself unviable for economic commerce...
Or even if everybody does (you know - after they lay fiber optic cable out to the far remoteness of Siberia & the Sahara desert, or any other wilderness - after they cover the landscape with repeating towers, and fill the atmosphere so full of satellites that it blocks the sun, and the sky looks like Times Square)...
You know... I'm thinking that would be the PERFECT time to detonate an EMP which wipes out all electronics... Watch out for those pesky solar flares bitchez!
I'm guessing I'll need to keep my BITCOIN in a "farraday cage" under the mattress (you know - for a rainy day)...
Corn Based Ethanol = FAIL
Coal Fired Volts = IDIOT
Algae = Bwahahahahahahahaah!
Bitcoin.....
24 approaching on the VIX
and by "approaching" I mean "is here"
spoonman
At the rate it's moving, you sure you didn't mean 25?
Now the market are trying to protect the "other 200" as the SMA(200) is within reach.
CV,
it probably reveals a wee bit of bias when someone trashes something that they've not even attempted to understand right?
Also, just for shits, a mountain of gold in the middle of nowhere, like the desert, isn't any more valuable than bitcoin would be to you if you didn't have a connection, the sand mounds aren't going to trade you for nickles or a bar of gold in the desert, they are worthless there in the situation you are trying to describe.
Water would probably be the currency of choice in that instance, maybe a camel.
I hardly think it's so hard to believe in the next 60 years the entire world is going to be on-line, though, doesn't seem to be a far fetched idea to me.
I'm sure anyone that had claimed that you could take a ride into space for a price say 20 years ago was labled a total monkey
but here we are
JetPaks, bitchez.
What's the Intrade on Greece's implosion? Hell their 2yr is over 30% and the 10yr is 19%.
The day after a 90% down day should bounce. Another myth exposed.
Bulls win on a close above 200 EMA?
"Hell their 2yr is over 30% and the 10yr is 19%."
it's all speculators fault, Greece also just found out that traders can operate shirtless
they are working on a response to this
some sort of new tax on shirtless traders in greek bonds I suspsect
spoonman
That's how it'll get spun. But being this close to the fire is not good for the bulls health.
I think the market is more afraid of SMA(200) than EMA(200). I'm just looking at the move the market made as it dealt with each one.
inside day on SPY Ra, leaning toward bounce tomorrow
and these SPY calls I'm in now have nothing to do with that.....nope, not at all.
:-)
No Bond Report today, LB was beaten with a big stick today.
Thank goodness for incremental portfolio management.
Piles of cash when you don't know what to do, yeah, baby.
JNK broke down badly today. Full details tomorrow.
LB
I was just looking at the carnage in HY.
ben22
Bullish harami/inside day. But a harami serves as better reversal if it closes above the midpoint of the previous day.
...The thefts run the gauntlet from a few pounds to large-scale operations committed by what Bellamore said may be organized theft rings.
“There have been reports where a grove is virtually stripped in a very short period of time, and it takes people to do that,” he said.
Patrick Lucy, director of organic sales for Del Rey Avocado Inc., Fallbrook, Calif., has seen the results of a major theft right across the road from one of his company’s groves near Bonsall in San Diego County.
Lucy
“A lot of their trees were just completely stripped,” he said. “After that happened, we stripped most of the lower lying fruit in our grove.”
The theft problem has forced Del Rey Avocado to invest in fencing that completely surrounds its groves, especially in more remote areas, Lucy said.
“With the price of avocadoes, I’m surprised we haven’t heard of more thefts,” he said.
More thefts seem to occur in the southern growing region — San Diego and Riverside counties — rather than the more densely populated Ventura and Santa Barbara counties, Bellamore said...
http://www.thepacker.com/fruit-vegetable-enewsletter/packer-daily/Industry-combats-California-avocado-thefts-124004279.html
AAIP
just saw this one today....
to finish off the day ....Bill Marr and Jane Lynch dramatically reading the text of Con. Weiner's messages ....
It's pretty hilarious.
For the record, I could care less what this guy does...but it's pretty funny to hear it read this way.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_kVjO7Eujo
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