Corn (weekly info)new high 785.75
trend=up
high= 785.75
rev= 714.00; mid= 749.88
The 76.4% has been resistance for a couple of months. Looking at this weeks candle that still seems to be the case. It's above all of its SMA's. But its MACD has dipped below zero. Currently this week is forming a dark cloud cover but could still become a bearish engulfing.
Rough Rice (weekly info)-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
low= 12.90
rev= 15.89; mid= 14.40
Rough rice bumping up against its upper trend line (and losing). It is acting as if it wants to break below its weekly 3LB mid. It did break below its SMA(233) & SMA(144) this week. The MACD is moving lower but hasn't broken zero.
Coffee (weekly info)-no change (below mid)
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
low= 261.00
rev= 299.35; mid= 280.18
Coffee prices are weak…F&*k Yeah!! Now I'm not wishing the coffee growers any ill will. I just want my morning fix to stay reasonable. It's below its SMA(21) and monthly 3LB mid. But I see the MACD is moving higher so my happiness might be fleeting.
75 comments:
Chock Full 'o Nutz bitchez!
Fat Cats getting hungry reading this post.
Holy crap. Empire state manufacturing falls to -7.8
Andy/Ben,
Is it fair to say you have no faith in Neely's current count?
He is looking for C to dip in to the A wave which topped at 1220 last May.
From the move off March 2009 at 666 or if you use the start of A of 872 in July 1394-1440 would offer some serious resistence in a number of possibilities to end E.
The move off 1370-1318 was 52 followed by a possible expanded flat to 1345 brigning us to our current leg down - so a-b complete, working on c. A 2.618 of 52 takes us to 1209. It also sets up a nice falling wedge with the bottom trend line being reistance for wave a. Any rise above 1292.5 from yesterday would certainly alter the trend line and possibly end the falling wedge.
Using the trendlines of the falling wedge, a nice bottom would be around June 30/July 1st. July 1st being Canada Day and July 4th being on a Monday - it certainly provides a long weekend for a major announcement - "QE3" by another name perhaps?
I'll be back.....
McHappy,
I've tried not to look at his counts yet this week to just work on my own stuff. I'm not totally against that count at all, just not sure that's the best idea right now. Personally I like Andy's large picture interpretation better, calling the January 2010 high the end of wave W and the movement from there through June 2010 as an X wave rather than the B wave Neely shows in that count, currently we are in another X wave. If for no other reason Andy hasn't changed that outlook in quite some time and I'm finding that lots of other technical evidence seems to confirm that count better. From a traditional charting perspective my understanding is that a wedge should pretty much erase the entire move within it in fairly short order once it breaks so I'm a little suspect of the way he's drawn the D wave out marking it's expected bottom above 1040.
I stayed up pretty late last night looking for charts with long set ups, futures looking pretty nasty right now, I think if I just work near term off the morningstar pattern in the $spx I'll use the lower shadow on the doji pattern as the line in the sand for whether or not this wave from 1370 is really over, yesterday looked solid for bulls near term for a number of reasons but maybe this is not the case
Ben,
I should have provided a little more clarification. Using Andy's x-wave idea and Neely looking for a dip in below 1220 this week or next.
I'm not convinced of Neely's daily plot from Monday.
"From a traditional charting perspective my understanding is that a wedge should pretty much erase the entire move within it in fairly short order once it breaks"
That is my interpretation as well and after a vist to the 1190-1220 zone, I am thinking there is going to be a new "bull market" after the masses totally shart themselves. 1390-1440 would be my current guess.
Obama, Boehner golf to get debt talks out of rough
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/pl_nm/us_usa_debt_golf
---
Finally! Progress!
FORE more years!
@Amen
Could you start putting the SPOT CATFOOD charts up as well?...
As well as a GOLD:CATFOOD ratio chart...
Much obliged :-)
McHappy,
yeah, I don't want to just toss that idea to the side, it's viable.
if the expanding triangle is the path perhaps wave E will end up being a decent amount larger than Wave C if we mark these recent lows on the trip down from 1370 cash as wave C in the triangle.
From there I was thinking we could have a fairly strong leg up that ends up resulting in some sort of double top in early 2012, thinking the E wave might end around September/October period of this year.
suppose that's too far ahead though all things considered, lets get through July first.
Far out: Magic mushrooms could have medical benefits, researchers say
http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_thelookout/20110615/ts_yblog_thelookout/far-out-magic-mushrooms-could-have-medical-benefits-researchers-say
Just the breakthru I was looking for...
Psilocybn bitchez! (That'll be QE4)
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a5/Psilocybn.svg/500px-Psilocybn.svg.png
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/raging-stagflation-inflation-higher-empire-state-mfg-index-tumbles-confirms-contraction
---
Transitory bitchez!
@ben
"I think if I just work near term off the morningstar pattern in the $spx I'll use the lower shadow on the doji pattern as the line in the sand for whether or not this wave from 1370 is really over, yesterday looked solid for bulls near term for a number of reasons but maybe this is not the case"
---
You should be more acquainted by the "lemming" behavioral patterns of MOMO's than I (speaking of your 'colleagues', of course, not YOU)...
But this...
Both Rosie & now Bill Gross have come out and said that QE3 would likely take the form of "Operation Twist II" (see 1961)...
Gross is suggesting that it would target the 2 year part of the curve and cap the yield...
I interpret that as an operation which, at this stage of the game, would basically lead to an automatic STEEPENER (or avoid a FLATTENING or INVERSION scenario - assuming it works)...
IOW... No 'predictive' technical dark clouds of scary inverted yc's forecasting recessions...
That's probably why Gross went short longer dated maturities with the expectation that the money flow would move out of the longer end & towards the shorter end (LB could probably have more of an intelligent take on this)...
In any case... With the more simpleton MOMOS (who only think in terms of black & white & not in terms of grey)...
No (technical) dark clouds of recession forecasting mechanisms (i.e. 'steepening' YC) = A-OK for equities...
Totally convoluted... But what isn't...
In any case, it would probably be enough to make your scenario of a 'early 2012' double top a possibility...
JTOL
---
In any case - It's GROSS & ROSIE we're talking about here (not Lazlo & AJC)...
CV,
Lemming patterns? We have this thing called wave analysis...... :-)
All fair enough what you say, however, I'd like to state the following:
Both Rosie and Gross have been exactly wrong when forecasting the impact of QE whatever on the fixed income markets. Also, be very careful about what you think Gross is doing, I had a two hour meeting with PIMCO last week, the positions are not what they seem and I only recently found out when MorningStar shows a short position for PIMCO that doesn't really tell you what they've actually done. They've got some extremely complex futures positions on right now that I don't even fully understand.
further, the fixed income markets are so friggen huge, I'll just state what I always do, I don't give a flying f what reaction the Fed has next to the market, the market is going to do what the market is going to do and it seems more often than not it's not the intuitive efficient market forecast all these super smart pundits come up with.
Talk about no volume. SPY hasn't traded a billion shares a week since 3/18/11.
Ra,
I think yesterday was the second lowest volume day of the year?
@ben22
That's good info to consider (esp. the paragraph where you were talking about your meeting with PIMCO)...
---
I'm in agreement with you on the notion that the markets are going to do what they want to do...
But if you look at it on the surface... An "Operation Twist" (like that predicted by Rosie & Gross), is really not a very complicated maneuver... It's a blunt instrument (and in fact - it doesn't even really smack of any devious 'market manipulation' schemes)...
It's really probably the ONLY lever to pull whereby the Treasury can borrow (somewhere) at a rate that will allow it to fund it's obligations... That's it... No hocus pocus...
It would, I guess, be a 2-fer, if the added bonus of that resulted in an AVOIDANCE of a potential "inverted yield curve"...
Since that's about the only thing that many momo's fear... Then I suppose it may be just enough (for awhile - at least), to forestall a collapse in EQUITIES...
I think basically what I'm saying is that for 'wave counters' out there... It may be the ticket to really be looking at larger wave counts that have 2012 ending points...
The Charlie Brown T-shirt pattern until then... It only depends on how TALL you want to say Charlie Brown is in the process...
CV,
anymore the PIMCO fund just freaks me out, I've basically moved all my clients out of it at this point, I just don't know what's going on in there, the rep even had a real hard time explaining it all to me and I've known this guy about 5 years now, never seen him struggle like that before.
that to me, is a problem
as you say though, that's sort of what I've been doing lately with the big picture market outlook, paying close attention to counts that would end in 2012 time frame
this also goes with some cycle work prechter has been showing lately
California diver wants to search for bin Laden's body
http://www.wcsh6.com/news/watercooler/article/162505/108/California-diver-wants-to-search-for-bin-Ladens-body?odyssey=mod|newswell|text|FRONTPAGE|p
---
All I can say is that he'd better hope the NAVY has a 'shark' team eam to go along with the SEAL unit...
FUKUSHIMA USSA STYLE bitchez!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XHZdub3n0mI&feature=related
Trin and PC Ratio can't get back under 1.00. No new high or low TICK readings...yet.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/greek-prime-minister-asked-to-step-down-report-2011-06-15
Greek prime minister asked to step down: report
By Polya Lesova
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Greece's opposition party has asked Prime Minister George Papandreou to resign so that a commonly accepted person could become the new head of government, Reuters reported Wednesday, citing an unnamed source from the New Democracy party. The report came as Greece was paralyzed by a 24-hour general strike organized to protest new austerity measures.
Papandreou better find a tunnel or he'll "lose his shirt"
@ben (11:46)
ror...
Tell him to give my regards to Steve McQueen & Richard Attenboro while he's down there...
Yesterday didn't even exist...
Mondays low about to get taken out. Which means support will become the March low. Ruh roh???
SPX 1272: 50% of November low to May high seems to have been the support / resistance over the last few days. Just crashed through it. Implications for the Morning Star read?
@Amen
It's May 6th, 2010 day (from a Greek perspective)...
So as soon as Waddell & Reed put down the Gyro, & Baklava we might see some greasy fat fingers again...
Henry
All patterns have to be confirmed. So far the morning star is not getting confirmed. Sometimes a higher open would suggest confirmation but it's the close that counts.
@Amen
Here's Plan B...
http://www.nyse.com/press/circuit_breakers.html
Bucking hard to be placed in the pantheon of Linked In & GM...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/pandora-triggers-20-sell-orders-now-streaming-timberrrrrrrr-algos-2011
The CEO was on TV this morning saying they have "no plan for profits anytime soon"...
So for the life of me, I can't figure out why this is happening...
Ra,
I haven't given up on the pattern yet, it wasn't a perfect MStar as the the body of the doji is within the red bar and there was no large gap between the doji and yesterday's white candle so I give it some leeway, market stopped right before the lower shadow area just before noon today and then cut just below it after that, seems there is a ton of activity in that zone, very crucial.
I had some SPY 132 July calls filled today, we'll see, may be a loser trade.
ben22
The morning star was closer to a bullish harami. probably should have changed it. Now haramis go through hell trying to get confirmation. Most of them seem to fail.
Love the CNBC "Heat Map" ....
It's really informative and conveys a ton of information....
That was the second test of Mondays low. The third one should be a charm.
I had never even heard of Pandora before....
I'm so "out of it" ....
Ra,
Yeah, I had considered a harami last night, but I can't gain an edge with harami sticks, I'm with you in that they often seem to fail.
last 60 minute candle yesterday was a bearish engulfing so should have expected some weakness after such a big day, this is more than I expected though for sure, would have been a lot less surprised by a move like this over the rest of the week rather than just today.
What was the commercial I saw on CNBC the other day, something like a guy sitting at his home desk which had 35 monitors and pointing to the heat map saying something like
"this is what I'm talking about!"
I thought that was pretty funny, what edge does a heat map give you really? Not seeing it.
Andy
Any thoughts on my musings earlier?
ben22
The lights are so flashy it's mesmerizing. D'oh!
I wonder if someone at the NYSE just says f&*$ it and trigger the circuit breakers.
mcHappy. I've been without my best charting software this week. I should be back in the saddle again quite soon.
It feels like we're still in the midst of correction (x-wave) that began in Feb11 and it feels like a triangle of some kind. So, it's a very difficult time to understand exactly what's going to happen.
I'm on the sidelines right now.
I've always liked a move to 1220 for this x-wave.
I'm not a buyer of Neely's latest plots....
PPT? BTFD crowd? Knife catchers?
"Oh look! See the dark green! That's where the action is. I need to go buy that sector right now!"
Might as well be hanging out with BR, chasing momentum around town.
Congress, White House aiming for July debt deal. They want it to be done by July 1, 2011.
Funny how that date lines up perfectly with the end of QE2. Just sayin'
Only ten minutes left until the gloves come off...
Amen:
I saw your comment on the Empire State numbers...the earthquake occured March 11, I think, and the reasoning behind the severe drop in the ES was due to Japan, at least on CNBC. This seems to me to be a little late in the day for that...I realize that not everything is manufactured now "just in time" but I would have thought April would have had a severe contraction too, if this was due to Japan....
HAHAHA SPX was about to break todays low and a miraculous thing happened...buying appeared.
BinT
I guess they assumed the effects would last a few months before stabilizing.
200 ema at 1263 = LOD. The bounce appears uninspiring...
spoonman
I was just about to add that:
Mondays low=1265.64
SMA(200)= 1256.81
EMA(200)= 1262.81
Left off weekly S1=1259.42
In one 5-min span you had TICK readings of +1038 and -1122. Let's get ready to rumble!!!
@Andy
Your x-wave is what I've been thinking - a move below 1220 (1209 ideally) would be a great place to launch again.
That is sort of a hybrid of your chart and Neely's right now.
1390-1440 being the ultimate 'top' ..... perhaps :D
Vix up almost 17%
McHappy,
1440 seems a huge target to me based on Andy's count and the fibo relationship between waves W and waves Y. I think it's too high, fwiw.
EMA(200) check.
@mcHappy
So if I get this right, the 'homing beacon' puts us somewhere between Earth & Alpha Centauri (give or take a couple of parsecs)... :-)
Timber.
K-A-T-H-E-R-I-N-E ....
VIX 21. That's more like it.
FEAR? I'll show you fear.....
CV 3:16
I'm here to talk trading markets.
I have no idea what you speak of.
mcHAPPY
Did you hold that sign up at the NYSE?
Sorry, Ra. I'm a little slow. What sign?
mcHAPPY
"CV 3:16" :-)
LOL - now I got you.
ok then... Mr. McSERIOUS...
carry on...
Mc what?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j9RWVEAQeC0
LB enjoyed that day, maybe not the climax but heavy selling*.
We McSHORTED the long bond into the close.
Also we were in there garbage picking for divvys and EWJ.
Can't help it, it's what we do.
* Not as much fun as heavy petting.
We might do a Report™, if there were demand for one.
Demand? There's lots of demand!
"We might do a Report™, if there were demand for one."
bring it!
The Return of The Bond Report™ 6.15.11
It was, obviously, RISK OFF. As always, the credit markets led the way, with Treasuries rallying early. Yet the long bond struggled to make headway at times during the day and the 1-month chart reveals a series of lower highs. That's bearish for the 30y, folks.
Spreads were wider on the day, but JNK stayed above its recent lows, and there was no sense of panic selling in credit. Looking at the charts, LQD, AGG and TIP have had a great run and are quite vulnerable to any decent economic data, should we ever see any again.
IQI and MUB have staged a massive recovery on the back of lower yields in USTs and are also bumping into resistance, the same for higher quality MBS. Might be time for a jump back into the lower quality end of the pool?
Corpies: LQD 0.55%; AGG 0.25%; JNK -0.53%; HYG -0.42%
Govies: TLT 1.82%; IEI 0.62%; TIP 0.52%
Munis: IQI -0.16%; MUB -0.06%
Mortgages: MBB 0.15%
Specialty: ZROZ 2.83%; TBT -3.43%; EMB -0.09%
We have very little F/I here, just 5% in JNK. We started a hedge today.
Long 5% JNK and short 6% TLT.
The perfect accompaniment to a frou-frou after work.
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