EEM (weekly info)WEEKLY REVERSAL new low 46.47
trend=no
direction=down (1 bar)
low= 46.47
rev= 50.17; mid= 48.32
EEM weakness continues. Not only did it have a weekly 3LB reversal down it is the second week below its monthly 3LB mid. It is also the second seek below its SMA(21). Doesn't look like they are going to lead the way out the GFC.
HYG/LQD (weekly info)new low 0.8092
trend=down
low= 0.8092
rev= 0.8333; mid= 0.8213
The run into IG continues unabated. Actually it looks to be accelerating. Trending down on the weekly 3LB and last week closed below its monthly 3LB mid. Last week also closed below the SMA(55).
S&P TMI (weekly info)WEEKLY CONFIRMATION new low 1451.37
trend=no
direction=down (2 bars)
low= 1451.37
rev= 1574.23; mid= 1512.80
The S&P Total Market Index is leading the way. Last week closed below the monthly 3LB reversal price. The SPX may have just reversed but when you look at all of the S&P it's worse than expected.
Nat Gas (weekly info)-no change (above mid)
trend=no
direction=up (2 bars)
high= 4.757
rev= 3.993; mid= 4.375
Natural gas is looking to move higher. Last week closed above its SMA(55). Also closed above its monthly 3LB reversal price.
54 comments:
@Ra from previous thread:
"Miami didn't play as if they wanted to win. You could see it in their body language."
That is what happens when the HEAT felt entitled to the trophy versus working their tails off to earn it.
I am so happy they lost or, rephrased positively, Dallas won.
"Natural gas is looking to move higher. Last week closed above its SMA(55). Also closed above its monthly 3LB reversal price"
...and of course, here's your backup plan to go long natty if the first argument wasn't convincing enough...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/goldman-goes-short-nat-gas
CV
GS might be looking at the double top on the weekly charts.
@Amen
GS might be hiding the pea between their fingertips and the walnut shell...
So much for LeBron the closer.......where's the ANON that came on this site after game two basically saying all the LeBron haters could sit down now.
Series was first to 4, anon.
Making fun of the other teams best player when you've got nobody to guard him......probably not a good idea. I did very much enjoy Eddie House taking half court shots over and over again.....nice game-plan.
@CV,
re ZH article, just seeing all that today, wasn't around much this weekend. I haven't really taken the time to look it over and I probably won't because I don't think it matters.
So what, after 8 straight months having to listen to the total nonsense about how QE made markets go up about all the liquidity it provided and all manner of theory on how the money was "going in" to commodities and other risk assets...... so now here we are coming to the end of it, the markets have nearly come full circle now meaning they haven't gone up at all basically during QE, and ooh look, a new explanation for what *really happened with all the QE money, just like clockwork. Color me unimpressed and also, I'd tell you even if people do find out, they wont' care any more than they do when they find out that when the IMF bails someone out we're on the hook for a large chunk of that as well.
I see no difference if it went here, there, to Mars.......doesn't matter, it was a tiny little number when domestic or global debt is considered, people's mood made it (QE) matter more than it actually did.
The Fed is THE market they are part of the market, and they'll continue to react at every turn
The Fed isn't the market.......so much for proofing
but shouldn't this be obvious by now....that these guys can't control the market?
Well ES is only around $3 above FV so it's not as bullish as futures would suggest. IMHO.
There were a few articles over the weekend on how the banks should bounce higher. But it's hard to bounce when all of your mtm accounts are deflated (aka should be marked down 20-50%).
@ben
I kinda figured that was what you were going to say... But I added it as a discussion topic because I think the IDEA goes a lot further than into just what the S&P does (which - perhaps - is a USELESS topic of discussion - because many people on this blog are [present & former], in fact, seem mostly to care deeply about what the S&P does & or consider it an entity that is mutually exclusive from geo-politics, or CB cartels)...
I'll spell out some of my ideas here (but won't really elaborate just yet - because if it is a topic of NON-interest to most, why waste my breath)...
---
1. If, in fact, QE2 was all about mostly providing liquidity to the European banking system... Let's illustrate the simple mechanics...
1) Foreign bank sells worthless PIIG's bonds to Fed for dollars the Fed prints...
2) Foreign bank then buys treasury bills with these dollars...
3) Treasury now spends dollars on Obamacare, invasions & cruise missles in Libya for oil, & whatever freebies 'blue' states & districts need (or - in a GOP Administration, replace red with blue)...
4) Foreign bank then sells new Treasury bills back to Fed for more new dollars...
Happy faces all around - Foreign banks dump bad debt... Treasury has the money it needs to fund big Goverment and the Fed's balance sheet is bigger...
---
If that's the case, then it would be hard to make any further arguments that FED actions have any DIRECT interest in what is advertised as their supposed mandate of 'employment' & 'price stability'...
Instead, it's all about protecting the banking system... We probably already knew that, but this is CLEAR evidence...
So you have to leap forward and understand what that suggests going forward...
It suggests that this 'tinfoil' talk about NWO's (and all that stuff) becomes more believable... Why? Because the central banks are not acting in the interest of the nations or citizens they serve, and INSTEAD, acting as GLOBALISTS, or global entities...
Basically, when the US taxpayer gets put on the hook to fortify the balance sheets of banks making loans to a bankrupt Greek pension system [or PIIG country you wish to nominate], then the NWO is ALREADY HERE...
Then you need to take the argument even a step further... IOW - you have to start thinking like a NWOrderist...
Well, consider that the Euro itself is the brainchild of the NWO'ists... It's their little science experiment... George Soros has admitted as much himself... If the Euro FAILS, then it's going to be quite a setback for any idea of a world currency... Further, it would seem in this article that QE2 had, SAVING THE EURO as a prime objective...
It would seem that, from a NWO perspective, the USD & Euro need to come to 'parity' at some point in the future for everything to gel (but maybe I'm missing something)...
In any case, you can then probably make a lot of asset class calls based on FOREX in the process of getting from HERE to THERE...
And of course, that same arbitrage impacts everything from Treasuries, to the S&P, to commodities...
I'm not saying that anybody can CONTROL anything... But it sure seems to me that they are TRYING... And if someone doesn't understand or accept that as the game, then it's going to be tougher to trade or be positioned well...
That's all
@Ra,
It feels like we've been hearing for quite a lot of months now how the banks would surely rally at any moment. Just isn't happening. Healthcare, REITs, Utilities, Staples, those have all been more solid recently, thinking that there are some energy names that are starting to get attractive here.
CV,
the only problem with that timeline is something we've previously discussed which is that it eventually leads to the Fed destroying itself, which I don't believe they intend to do, not even Bernanke wants that, I'd even go so far to say he'd prefer to lose to deflation than destroy the Fed.
Having Prince Fielder and David Ortiz on your fantasy BB team the last couple weeks
G $$$$
@ben
Remember... I lived in Europe for the exact 12 year period starting when the EU and single currency concept went from drawing board to realization...
I kinda know what it's all about (and frankly - it's not a lot more complicated than who THINKS of themselves as important getting their proper seat at the table)...
So I don't really even perceive as the Fed 'worried' about whether they're going to destroy themselves or not...
The 'race', it seems, is ANOTHER one... And it's all about 'interconnectiveness'... Getting things so mangled and intertwined that you can't burn down one system without burning down the whole system...
Basically - CENTRAL BANKING is already working in a NWO model... But the politicians & citizens of the various countries aren't even aware of it...
The BIG SURPRISE that the NWO-CB's are going to face down the line, probably has more to do with demographics & population than anything else...
If they try to do a EURO-US centric monetary union (same way that the EURO itself was basically a German-France centric power structure), then that leaves out the Chinese, Russians, (and let's say Japanese - who nowadays aren't even viable because of their own problems)...
So the problem is, if "growth" remains the path to keeping the turnpike toll booth running, then any EURO-US based CB union is facing declining populations, & more spending to maintain socialistic entitlement structures...
Instead, you have lots of room to grow a middle class in China, and China itself is being aggressive in making Africa their own little mercantilistic sub-continent...
This may take a long time to play out, but either way... at some point in the future, whatever fiat currency THE WEST has to offer is going to have to compete for resources against a stronger hand...
Looks like Obama didn't pay Peggy Joseph's gas & mortgage after all...
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43343008
re peggy joseph...
Brown, 34, is a prime example. As a first-time homebuyer and single black woman, Brown... paid $230,000 for a tiny, 664-square-foot home that she said is “more like a small cottage.” The previous owners had paid $60,000.
"“There’s a huge demand for this program now,” Hunter said. Eligible homeowners can get a zero-interest loan of up to $50,000 for two years to help them with their mortgage. “It can be the only hope people have to save their homes,” she said.
Brown is in the process of gathering her paperwork to apply for the program. Though she has her hands full with a 10-month old child and another on the way, she has been relentless in the fight for her home
oh yeah, another $50k debt is going to help a lot 2 years down the road
CV,
Over on NakedCapitalism, here's a epithet you might enjoy:
>> Jim Haygood says:
>> June 13, 2011 at 9:51 am
>> ...
>> Step #2 is to ridicule them into irrelevance, starting with >> Peace Laureate O’Bomber the Drone Messiah <<, surely the most ridiculous political figure of this young century.
CV,
Over on NakedCapitalism, here's a epithet you might enjoy:
>> Jim Haygood says:
>> June 13, 2011 at 9:51 am
>> ...
>> Step #2 is to ridicule them into irrelevance, starting with >> Peace Laureate O’Bomber the Drone Messiah <<, surely the most ridiculous political figure of this young century.
Ben22,
>>So what, after 8 straight months having to listen to the total nonsense about how QE made markets go up about all the liquidity it provided and all manner of theory on how the money was "going in" to commodities and other risk assets...... so now here we are coming to the end of it, the markets have nearly come full circle now meaning they haven't gone up at all basically during QE,
Nov '11 soybeans rose by 40% since QE2 was announced. How/why do you conclude commodities haven't risen? How/why do you conclude that markets have nearly come full circle? Do you mean the "market" "other than commodities"?
Wave thoughts at Acting man...http://www.acting-man.com/?p=7969
Wunsacon,
when I said market I was referring to the S&P 500, I believe it's now not even 5% higher than it was when QE2 implementation began in November.
But sure, I suppose one could select soybeans which despite all the inflationary policy of the Fed haven't found their way to new highs above the 1,600 from 08 (also, not really sure what you are looking at, looking at finviz quickly I see soybean contracts in mid november at ~1,200, a 40% increase would put them at 1,680, but for simplification, it only trades at 1,400), or oil being about 10% higher since QE2 but not at new highs, or bitcoin being 300% higher or LULU doubling over the period, for that matter. Is that what you want to imply, that things that did go up a whole bunch....must have been QE on those? Is that the new story people are going to tell.....well, I guess QE didn't make *everything go up,.... but look what it did to soybeans!
point was that all I've heard for 8 months was that stocks were up on QE2, generally doesn't appear to be the case to me, even Bernanke's precious small caps aren't much higher.
After the morning hype about 10yr yields back over 3.00% they're back down to 2.978%.
ben22
Maybe the idea was to have everyone think stocks are up due to QE while at the same time funneling credit out the back door to the European banks.
@72bat
Well the 'good news' is that Ms. Brown PROBABLY has a job...
This whole area is full of government & civil service jobs...
PG County is a 'profilers dream' in that sense...
Ra,
Still think people really need to give it up on this idea that whatever new theory that is presented, (QE2 was going to put a floor on RRE prices, it would cause banks to lend, no instead stocks up on QE2, no commods were, no the money really went to EU banks) that it's somehow all by design by the Fed, this is a never run before experiment they are conducting here, they have no idea what is going to happen next or how it's all going to work out, they are just reacting as we go along, this seems entirely obvious to me at this point in time, we're stuck on the zero bound and they have no other options, the Fed can't even agree amongst themselves on what to do.
@ben (11:36)
I gotta give YOU credit for actually standing your ground on this and NOT equivocating the rise in S&P & commodities to QE2...
In fact, over on ZH today, there's a new thread on the same subject and many are actually calling out TD, and basically saying "Tyler, what gives" (since so many articles between November & April had POMO at the center of the incessant price run-up)...
---
Still... If you've been reading CV's messages closely for the last year now... I've 'generally' steered away from making that direct correlation:
QE2 = rise in equities + commodities
Many times, I also went as far as to say that I thought a great number of ZH'ers were bandwagonists...
Instead, my point all along has been to say that CB's, ARE IN FACT, interested in meddling with markets & what equates to 'market perception'...
IOW, they might not succeed, but they sure as hell are going to try... And the fact that most of the sheeps on Wall St. are exactly THAT (look no further than the Tepper comments from last December)... Then once a simply idea gets a foothold, it's going to be brought to its conclusion (for better or worse)...
So YES... I think CB's do have an influence in markets (in practice), not because they're wizards, but conversely, because so many people would like to THINK of them as wizards... It doesn't matter if YOU believe it or not (just as it doesn't matter whether or not CV thinks DWTS is an idiotic show)... People tune in...
---
Lastly - my ONLY real trade in this entire time period has been to become disinterested in trading PAPER markets... Simply because I believe that FIAT is now firmly entrenched on a path to destruction (whether that destruction takes place in the form of actual repudiation of the notes themselves [least problematic - in the short term], or in subtler ways such as loss of VALUE or purchasing power due to price inflation, taxation, confiscation, or asset class destruction)...
So I'd rather convert those paper assets to physical goods incrementally (might as well spend them now while I can still get something of value for them)...
Wonder what I perceive as value? Oh, here's a simple list:
http://seenoevilspeaknoevilhearnoevil.blogspot.com/2011/06/top-post-collapse-barter-items-and.html
---
In any case, bottom line is that I'd say you're VINDICATED for standing your ground on QE2 & the S&P...
But all along, my implications towards QE2 (or QE18) have meant something entirely different...
ben22
The reason for this new theory is that since QE2 the cash assets have been flat at US banks but have increased $600B+ at foreign banks. Remember that many of the foreign banks have US offices. Out of the 20 Primary Dealers 12 are foreign.
Plus since they are foreign do they have to comply with all US disclosure laws?
@ben (12:00)
I'd agree 100% (never before run experiment - so practically impossible to predict what will happen to asset class prices)...
---
That doesn't mean, however, that you can't attempt to create some computational models and try to go from there:
Roughly, mine would go as follows:
1. 'Helicopter Ben' (has a 'helicopter' in his name... So I'd lean towards him continuing to do that same policy over and over (in as many different variations as he can think of), until either something works (which it won't), or until system failure is achieved...
2. NWOists have this type of system as a priority... It's not even a secret... Whether it succeeds or not is another thing, but they're going to try, and they have no problems paving the road to that objective with your ground up bones...
3. The first project (along those lines) was the European Monetary Union... The banks there are BIGGER than the biggest ones here... But now, we're all intertwined (we sold them bad mortgages - and now the Fed is supposedly printing dollars to take those off their books under the guise of them funding our Treasury debt...
So... politically & economically, we're all going to sink or swim together...
---
What I think one has to consider is whether or not that's going to be viable in the future... Frankly, I think it buys a decade at best (assuming the masses can stay comfortably numb & placated)...
Ok, I do alot of data mining when making some of my charts. When I start another chart, sometimes I use older chart data. Now with Govt. data... at times, the data has been changed due to revisions and seasonal adjustments, so they say. So it's out with the old data and in with the new (very time consuming). Seems I didn't have so many irregularities during the Bush years as I do now... just saying.
Something's wrong with this chart... and it starts just about when Owebama took office...
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-tCBcVwOm7vo/TesOnTnSxTI/AAAAAAAAAl8/0QN0Ij1zm3c/s1600/unemployment-irregularities.png
With that said, and with the almost realtime on demand data resources, our Govt can't get the figures right the 1st time, or the 2nd, and they have annual revisions on top of that!? Don't believe all the numbers you see, they are adjusted to make things look better than they really are. During the last year, the unemployment data was changed all the way back to 2000, and this was AFTER most of it was changed just after Owebama got into office. Case in point... Even though we have 700K+ students graduating each year, and people are working longer, our workforce is getting smaller says the Govt data. But yet the unemployment rate has stayed about the same, or gone down. It a ruse to fool the general public, the ones to lazy (or to busy trying to survive) to really look at the real facts.
Why did they stop accounting for M3, it would show excatly where alot of this money went.
M3 is back, well sort of...
http://nowandfutures.com/key_stats.html
QE3, who knows if we'll ever know where the money went... really
@ben
Bernanke's precious small caps aren't much higher
I'm not really trying to single out that statement, just using an anchor to reference a point...
In general, people can't deny several things that were stated publicly in the Nov-April time period...
- Bernanke talking about the "wealth effect" (whatever that means - MOST attributed it to the S&P or R2K)
or
- Tepper's bullish call at the end of last year
In any case, right or wrong... People start to string things (sound bytes) like that together and they take on a life of their own...
It wasn't ZH who had a Tepper or Bernanke clone, so it's not like they made up a thesis out of thin air...
Frankly - WHO EVEN KNOWS if this European Bank story is true or not (tho $600 billion is mighty anecdotal)...
Whatever - maybe this story will take on a life of it's own too... From what I've heard, Glen Beck has already picked up on it (that's just heresay because I don't follow Glen Beck)...
Anyway - Let's say he has... My guess is that his typical followers probably wouldn't have the foggiest clue as to what it all means (other than trying to find a way to blame the current Administration for US taxpayer bailouts of European Banks)...
IMO-WTF cares?
So what would that produce? Are you going to tell me that then they'll motivate the GOP to NOT raise the debt ceiling (in opposition to a QE3)... While they may naively do so, it ain't going to change anything [ie 'debt ceiling will be raised' - can kicked])...
Which means both D's & R's are complicit and the 'blame game' evaporates...
Hell - the government is already closing in on $100 billion borrowed from the non-existent [ledger entry] of the government pension system... Basically - Turbo Timmy is forcing a debt ceiling raise (otherwise put the GOP House on the hook for evaporating those "non-existent" funds)...
---
See - these are the reasons that CV kinda 'jokes' about equities these days... I spend too much time 'spelunking' farther down the rabbit hole trying to figure out if it's really worth my time...
@qqqq
It a ruse to fool the general public
No way! Say it ain't so! - ror
QE3, who knows if we'll ever know where the money went... really
F*** that... Nobody audits the Fed... Who's to say they don't just print suitcases full of cash (or ledger entries in offshore accounts) any time they want (or to BUY any puppet dictator the CIA wants in power)...
Remember:
- Hussein started wanting EUROS for oil (he's dead)
- Ghadaffi wanted GOLD for oil (they're after him)
- JFK wanted to create a silver backed currency (he's dead)
- They tried to get Andrew Jackson (original version), but missed
- Putin had managed to do an Andrew Jackson (which is why they hate him - and why he wants BACK IN because Medvedev is kind of "iffy")
Facebook IPO talk around 100bn....
Pfft.
Zuckerberg needs to get out of that shit right now....
Ouch. S&P downgrades Greece to CCC.
"You'll lose your shirt betting against Greece"
George Papa-Doo-Rag
I'll lose my shirt because I'll be on the beach after collecting my winnings :-)
Anyway...
The issue isn't how much money is lent to Greece (or whether it be lost or not)... Same way banks had no problem pushing thru 'liar loans' for any Peggy Joseph who wanted to say "Yes We Did"...
It's all about the property rights bitchez...
You have a nice racket going when you can counterfeit paper money in exchange for attachment of a real asset to it in lieu of eventual default on that loan...
The Real Estate game is up...
Now they have to go after commodities... It started getting away from them (price wise), so they have to use paper derivate markets to keep the price down while they print themselves enough confetti to be able to get their hands on it all...
Ebb & Flow (they hope)... But then - "subprime was contained" (until it wasn't)...
...as soon as they have the land & the assets, they'll create a more comprehensive tax system of the DELIVERY of those assets to your home for consumption...
Welcome to SERFDOM... You're already halfway there so just sit back and enjoy the ride...
Good news is your ride just got a little cheaper, because since Friday it looks like Obama took some time off from his 'Peaceful' Bombing missions to try & kill Ghadaffi and made crude prices fall $6 bucks...
So we have that going for us...
The more leaders he kills, the more peaceful it gets... Can't you just FEEL THE LOVE?
CV,
I'm with you, I do think the Fed tries to sway perception of course, I also think that when they do it it's the ultimate act of hubris because the idea is rooted in the belief that exogenous events/actions will cause people (rational actors) to do one thing or another in a trending manner, EMH basically.
Taking this thought process to its next logical conclusion is to say the Fed's desires become self fulfilling based on their created perception, whether its real or not, which I find about as silly as the idea that TA is self fulfilling.
I also don't think you can model hypotheticals such as the ones above, especially when your first input starts with indefinite trend extrapolation. If you could model such things we'd likely have already seen a program testing of basic patterns being traded (H&S, triangles, flags, pennants, etc.) and their success/failure rate in markets, but to date, despite 1,000's of attempts to do this, nobody can, there are simply too many variables and there is always subjective interpretation regardless of what TA you use that manipulate the output. I don't think this is any different. What we are discussing here appears orders of magnitude more difficult to program as most of our indicators are unknowns, so we first build a program on forecast indicators and then make a second forecast from that on what the actual outcome will be. It's hard enough being one step removed from an outcome let alone two.
Last, I speculate Tepper used his CNBC appearence to help create a buzz around financial stocks that he no longer had as much interest in himself, his own filings show that in the months following his comments he dumped financials in his accounts across the board.
My story on the senselessness of QE has remained exactly the same since August though I can't explain it with one line on a chart and I still think I'll be the one proven right in the end, it doesn't "work", however you want to define work, it's not inflationary either, and they made a giant tactical error in when they implemented the last round of it.
in re: LeBron James ...
It's pretty clear to me that guy is a 'head case.' He's probably the most physically gifted and talented basketball player i've ever seen, but needs some 'head therapy' ....
it doesn't "work", however you want to define work, it's not inflationary either, and they made a giant tactical error in when they implemented the last round of it.
Keep in mind that your statement is correct when you view it in the context of the definition of "work" as being what the media and sheeple WANT TO BELIEVE... That is, that the Fed is some benevolent institution of economic policy makers working in collaboration with the government in order to maximize prosperity for citizens...
That's the line they feed people (because most people want to hear that even when they kind of sense they're being lied to)... But really, most haven't even the slightest idea...
---
Instead, if you think of the Fed as a "mafia type" cartel of plutocratically bent academics serving a small oligarchy of family bankers & industrialists, whose PRIMARY OBJECTIVE is total control of the worlds resources... then what they have achieved POLICY WISE & TACTICALLY, thus far, has been rather successful...
The proof of that being... The DEBT has not been erased (and is, in fact, getting larger, as it's in the process of being 'socialized')... Sure - some insignificant private debt is being wiped out (as it always has been) in the form of personal bankruptcies and a few foreclosures... But most of the big stuff is still on the books (whereby they've made governments slave to it in the expectation that it will be 'taxed' out of the citizenry [theoretically FOREVER] - because it's so large now that SERVICE on it cannot be solved with normal GDP functions)...
What's more... With every passing step, the serfs are being indoctrinated into the occult of being robbed blindly in broad daylight...
These days, they steal from you and laugh in your face at the same time...
Which is why I prefer goods, barter, & PM's...
It's not a matter of investment... It's a matter of "not playing their game"...
I use THEIR MONEY for as short a duration as is possibly manageable...
CV,
When I say it doesn't work I mean it in the same way that we apply it to Japan when we say their QE didn't work. Or maybe you think Japan's QE is working so I should say when "I say" it doesn't work.
personally I don't really think this statement is something that needs to be interpreted though.
The Fed has always had one primary role and one primary goal which is to foster credit expansion, that is the purpose of all of this in the end, it is the golden key. This is what I mean when I say it's not working and it's not going to.
There is no "these days" for central banks, they've always had the same agenda.
Nobody woke up in 2000 and said "our next goal is to gain control of all the worlds resources, that is step 32 on the way to world domination in 56 easy steps" that somehow banking oligarchs have followed this nice 1,000 year time-line of world domination where they just go step by step on the way to the ultimate plan.
I laugh at the idea because it denies human nature, here let me sing it to you, there's a commercial that explains people real well, it goes like this:
I want it all, and I want it now!
as if these guys, if they were doing what you say, would bother being so methodical about it like this for decades on end, 300 years + of central banking and they should already have control of everything on the planet, surely that's long enough if they had the control people imply they do.
@ben
this part of it "it's not inflationary either"...
Let's just say that a mountian of unserviceable debt (and prices that exchanged based on that mountain) will eventually collapse...
The thing I wonder about is simply the PROCESS...
IOW - As long as the debt still exists (which it basically does because nowhere are bondholders taking haircuts - and toxic portfolios have simply been shifted onto the Fed's expanding balance sheet)... Then there still exist the artificial means for inflation...
The experiment may be to see that if debt service can continue simply by taking measures to artificially support asset classes...
This never happened before because nobody really tried, and frankly the simple technology of digital accounting entries kinda sorta facilitates the experiment (in lieu of printing 100 trillion dollar/or mark notes)...
Don't get to think I believe it will work in the end... One can already see that it probably won't, because one of the first 'knee jerk' responses was a sudden rise in commodity prices (which has a very negative impact on people's behavior)...
I frankly think Bernanke & Co. are so 'lost in academia' that they never expected that would happen... When it did, they were unprepared for it and had to scurry out & do press conferences with quivering lips blaming it on everything from being:
- transitory
- to tsunamis
- snow
- sophisticated diets in emerging markets
or what ever they could come up with...
I think they're going to have to RE-THINK that aspect going forward (the 'OMG' our actions DO HAVE unanticipated negative consequences, whoocoodanode?")...
Nevertheless - the bottom line is that there is too much debt out there, and if the choice is to paper it over, they're going to have to be more clever in 'perception management' as the stakes get higher and Joe & Jane sheep start losing their standard of living...
AT,
what kinds of odds do you give to this wave being over last week when we got the after hours dip in futures markets where A about equaled C? Not sure if you've been able to see all that as I know you just got back.
Internals appear to be getting worse to me not better as among other things we've had two 90% down days recently that were never erased by upside days with as much strength while the VIX shows complacency, though VIX calculation may be thrown off by a few things, I still think this favors more downside than it does the bottom being in for this wave.
still thinking that expanding triangle is a good forecast, iow.
@ben
I want it all, and I want it now!
as if these guys, if they were doing what you say, would bother being so methodical about it like this for decades on end, 300 years + of central banking and they should already have control of everything on the planet, surely that's long enough if they had the control people imply they do.
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Perhaps I misstakenly gave the impression that this is all going along some pre-determined plan invented 1,000 years ago...
Hell... How could that be because Al Gore only invented the internet 20 years ago... :-)
But as for the "I want it all & I want it now" part... I think you have to keep the two premises separate...
Certainly I (or probably you or anyone else), given the opportunity and resources to "HAVE IT ALL & HAVE IT NOW" would do so...
But it doesn't happen that way...
You start with small success, and you eventually build a complex empire... This is THEIRS... BANKING...
You should know this very well as a money manager... Your personal trades may be of the 'speedboat' type (maneuverability wise); clients? anything from Ritholtz's rusty scupper, to a cruise ship; Bill Gross, the titanic...
There are a lot mor complex plannings & dealings up the scale when there's more at stake (and frankly - it's harder to move)...
That's all I'm talking about...
So... the GREAT CONSPIRACY 'look' to it (nowadays) is more due to the maturity of the business and needs to keep it alive, rather than some unbelievable time machine of central planning spanning a millenium...
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Frankly - you could say that about any BUSINESS (whether it be the Catholic Church, the NFL, P&G, J&J, Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, the cotton candy vendor at the local fair, or Lucy Van Pelt's psychiatric booth)
ETRADE babies at it again...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/are-hft-algos-taking-aim-dominating-and-manipulating-wonderful-world-etfs-next
CV,
Certainly there is much debt still around, but this statement here is just not entirely true:
"nowhere are bondholders taking haircuts"
it'd be more accurate to say they haven't taken large haircuts across the board at this point in time.
also, I don't agree with this:
"As long as the debt still exists...Then there still exist the artificial means for inflation"
Credit expansion has two parts, a general willingness to lend and borrow and the general ability of borrowers to pay interest and prinicipal. Those parts depend on the trend in confidence or whether or not both creditors and debtors think that debtors will pay, which as we've seen the Fed can't control, and secondly depends on the trend in production which makes it either easier or harder for debtors to pay.
The psychological aspect of deflation can't be overstated but you seem to imply that it can be ignored almost entirely. I simply disagree with that.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_thelookout/20110613/us_yblog_thelookout/more-than-6-billion-in-iraq-reconstruction-funds-lost
I wonder if they checked Dick Cheney's back pocket?
Stops lying on the ground on both sides of the street. The stop killer went on a rampage and took out stops in both directions.
TICK high 1037 low -1032 today. There is some serious positioning going on.
The 'ol alligator chomp formation...
OK this is pretty funny: http://i175.photobucket.com/albums/w132/blacklqd/miami.jpg
this may have been lost with all the super important panty shots from Anthony Weiner:
http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2011/05/23/110523fa_fact_mayer
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