C (weekly info)-no change (below mid)
trend=up
high= 51.30
rev= 39.80; mid= 45.55
How's that reverse split working out for you? Citigroup is now trading below its weekly 3LB reversal price. It's also below all of its SMA's. Playing catch up with the other banks as they are already in downtrends.
BAC (weekly info)new low 11.28
trend=down
low= 11.28
rev= 12.28; mid= 11.78
BAC down move soldiers on. It's already trending down on the weekly 3LB. This week it may close below its monthly 3LB mid (additional weakness). Below all of its SMA's. Don't walk away. Run.
JPM (weekly info)new low 41.57
trend=down
low= 41.57
rev= 43.15; mid= 42.36
Dimon may have to stop confronting Bernanke and pay attention to his own house. JPM is trending down on tits weekly 3LB. It's now below all of its SMA's. It is now below its monthly 3LB mid. The only positive is that it hasn't violated the lower trend line…yet.
WFC (weekly info)new low 26.90
trend=down
low= 26.90
rev= 28.50; mid= 27.70
The double top at 34.25 was prescient. WFC is trending down on its weekly 3LB. It's below all of the SMA's It appears to be holding its 76.4% retrace. It's still above its monthly 3LB mid (the only one of the four). This weeks candle doesn't scream continuation. Looks to be forming a morning star reversal pattern (we'll see what happens next week).
52 comments:
@qqqq (from other thread)
"CV, you OK?",
Depends on what you mean... If the question was of genuine concern... Answer: YES
If it was one of those things that someone says openly to plant the seed of someone else being crazy... Then, I guess the answer is I'm about ready to cut my ear off like Van Gogh did...
---
So I guess the true answer is... I'm probably a little better than Le Bron James or Tiger Woods now (psychologically), and worse off than an HFT algo...
I think its pretty clear at this point that if Miami is going to win this thing it's going to be on D. Wade's back, not "King" James.
CV,
this comment:
"BTW - Doesnt't PRECHTER's 'Socioeconomic' agenda suggest that GOAL oriented sports (like basketball) should do POORLY during rough economic times...
Well then... What's the explanation for the 24/7 coverage on whether the Miami Heat are just a bunch of whiny bitchez,"
He does forecast that and it's been correct. Think he was looking for basketball, baseball, and hockey all to do poorly, forecast in the late 90's. The idea was that a negative social mood would result in people not looking up to sports stars in these areas as hero's and the public mood not wanting this type of entertainment but desiring something different, these were labeled as "bull market sports". RP forecast a more violent form of boxing to emerge that would become a popular sport during this period. Today, MMA is huge.
It's well known that attendance in these bull mkt sports is way off over the last decade, and just look what we've done to our "hero's" in these sports, maybe a good reference is the tearing down of baseball personas with the steroids hearings. Did people know this was going on in the 90's? Of course they did, but the psychological imperative demanded that the majority look the other way. The most gripped by baseball I'd ever seen so many people was easily in 1998, when Sosa and Mark Mc were battling for the HR record, both steroid users....and nobody cared about it, we were in a huge bull market and these guys were making the ultimate bullish baseball expressions better than anybody else.
So how to explain all the media coverage now? That's like asking "If there was supposed to be a huge bear market since 2000 how come we've had this rally since 2009" which sort of denies that the market hasn't moved up in over a decade, just like the sports question denies the fact that these sports have all really struggled, attendance is way down, apparel sales are way off as far as I know, you've got teams in baseball being taken over by MLB as they are such a mess financially, small market basketball teams barely hanging on outside of OKC, and on and on.
Remember socionomics is rooted in the elliott wave model, which is to say nothing moves in a straight line, a complete "wave cycle" is five waves up and three waves down:
See complete 8 wave cycle:
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:elliott_wave_theory
If the stock market is the best barometer for social mood then it should be no surprise that basketball is getting some play right now, we've been in a rising wave since March 2009.
http://www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNews/Money/Story/STIStory_678361.html
China ratings house says US defaulting: Report
BEIJING - A CHINESE ratings house has accused the United States of defaulting on its massive debt, state media said on Friday, a day after Beijing urged Washington to put its fiscal house in order.
'In our opinion, the United States has already been defaulting,' Guan Jianzhong, president of Dagong Global Credit Rating Co Ltd, the only Chinese agency that gives sovereign ratings, was quoted by the Global Times saying.
Washington had already defaulted on its loans by allowing the dollar to weaken against other currencies - eroding the wealth of creditors including China, Mr Guan said.
Mr Guan did not immediately respond to AFP requests for comment. The US government will run out of room to spend more on August 2 unless Congress bumps up the borrowing limit beyond US$14.29 trillion (S$17.57 trillion) - but Republicans are refusing to support such a move until a deficit cutting deal is reached.
Ratings agency Fitch on Wednesday joined Moody's and Standard & Poor's to warn the United States could lose its first-class credit rating if it fails to raise its debt ceiling to avoid defaulting on loans.
A downgrade could sharply raise US borrowing costs, worsening the country's already dire fiscal position, and send shock waves through the financial world, which has long considered US debt a benchmark among safe-haven investments. -- AFP
It's been a long time since I've seen the first five 1-minute candles all lower.
AmenRa,
What are your plans to improve the blogsite? This place used to be where ideas were hashed out. Now it just seems to be deserted. Comments have virtually disappeared.
Lett me butt my way into this and ask
Why does Ra need a plan to improve the site?
The site hasn't really changed all that much since the start outside of CV not authoring recently, Ra is still doing his great wraps at the close along with the morning charts and AT provides his work almost every single week. So, is it really the site itself that needs improving?
How about you Anon commenters start throwing some stuff out for discussion to liven it up? What ideas do you want to hash out?
Ra seems to be doing enough imo.
I'm with Ben.
Here, I'll get it going
thoughts on the LULU pop today, a short opp?
CAT is in the dumps, I'm still short.
NLY looked like it would break out of the price range sans dividends with a super strong leg up here recently but there is no volume, is it going to break-out, the REIT story is gaining lots of traction, maybe too much, but people get why this works now.
How about the dollar today?
How about PM's....gold's more interesting now than silver IMO.
c'mon, there are a million things to discuss
I haven't changed what I've been doing when it comes to the blog. People come and people go. A market that never stops rising will get under your skin if you're bearish and make you want to take a break. Me, I just try to see which way the trend is going and hop on.
CIM also got shellacked this week. Down in the 3.40's at one point. Housing jitters, I presume.
SPX back below its weekly 3LB reversal price.
Leftback made some interesting comments recently on CIM, that it was a "junk-REIT" and NLY was the quality in that space, makes a lot of sense. Left was really early on the NLY story, beat me to it, was a great call.
take a look at all the comments on the Maiden Lane auction.....not so hot.
What I like most is that I may talk about trading from my perspective (3LB's, fibos). Ben using EWT with better counts. QQQQ using 18's. That's what makes this blog interesting.
and yes CV's survivor guide is also a big part.
LB come on back with your market wrap.
re bond market wraps, lb's been fairy busy of late what with shopping for shorts and all
Ra,
on my CAT trade, I don't know if you remember but way back in early 09 at TBP I put a lot of money in CAT in the 20's and 30's and posted about it there, about $250k in fact, I made a lot on that trade but also left a lot on the table.
This short wasn't that large in terms of capital as I was using put options but I've never used a wave analysis on that stock, all I've ever done was trendlines and larger basic patterns and I confirm the trendline breaks with simple MA's, ROC and RSI divergences, and the very easy to identify candles.
Never much more than that on CAT but all my best trades in my career have come in this stock either long or short simply anticipating a trend based on those studies and then riding it.
I've started to attempt some cycle work on the stock but it will take me a few months to do all the math required.
Wow. DXY almost back to 75.
C, BAC, JPM, WFC all down 1.6% or more.
ben22
CAT now trending down on its weekly 3LB and is also trading below its monthly 3LB reversal price (97.01).
>> Wow. DXY almost back to 75.
The zombie's getting back up again! What can the movies tell us about taking out the dollar?
@ben (8:45)
That's a good explanation... I'll buy that premise...
I think I was looking at it more of as a TV "hype" thing...
But I guess one has to expect that with a brazillion cable channels to fill programming on, just about everything is going to get 24/7 coverage...
So since I watch a lot of sports, I'll notice something like that...
I think you're right about 'attendance' being down at the stadiums (except in very large markets, or with well run franchises)...
The reason I singled out the Heat-Dallas series, is, it's really the first NBA Finals (in a while), that I have actually personally been interested in watching...
I'm not a huge NBA fan (and I don't even have a favorite team)... Whereas football, baseball, & hockey, I do...
Please no pushing as you line up for the exit. No butting in line either (that's you Jamie). Anyone attempting to leave early will be sent to the back of the line (on GP). Good. Now someone call Katy and tell her we're ready.
Previous weekly 3LB highs on the way up:
1271.50 (1/7/11)
1257.64 (12/31/10)
1256.77 (12/24/10)
1243.91 (12/17/10)
1240.40 (12/10/10)
I see them standing near the edge of the abyss.
Following on the thread...
I'm with ben & spoonman as well...
I think Ra & Andy are doing a great job... Read ABOUT THIS BLOG...
To the ANON who wrote that comment (since none of us here engage regularly in internet IP sleuthing, we won't bother to track you down)...
If we did, it would only be to satisfy our curiosity factor as to whether YOUR version of the ABOUT THIS BLOG statement had the part about "hashing out ideas" in 200 or more comments... I guess my browser has the invisible ink version of that statement...
I think there happens to be a blog that has the reciprocal name to this one out there...
From what I understand... Many ideas are "hashed out" on that blog, and I suppose there are a lot of comments... They probably go something like this...
Libtard #1: Obama, Larry Summers, Ben Bernanke, & Barry Ritholtz are great... & Sara Palin is the devil...
Libtard #2: I agree
Libtard #3: I agree to... But I'd also add that Glen Beck is the devil as well
Libtards #1 & #2: Oh yes, Glen Beck too... We both agree
Anon: Can any of you quantify WHY Obama is so great?
Libtards #1 #2 & #3: Go away ANON, we don't need your types here
Anon: It was only a simple question
Controlling Libtard: I'm tracking down your IP number and banning you for life!
Crickets
Then...
Libtard #1: Let's all change our avatars to new lap dog pictures!
Libtard #2 & #3: Oh yes, that would be fun! And who's on the schedule to post their vacation pics tomorrow?
---
The comments add up pretty quickly that way (after you've tossed in the perfunctory "morning all" mouseketeer roll call)...
...and any way... IN PARLANCE... that makes for a lot of... well... HASH
Speaking of REITs, David Merkel wrote a piece recently about which market conditions have historically been favorable for equity and mortgage REITs. It's a good read for those interested in an elementary level quantitative analysis of that sector:
http://alephblog.com/2011/06/04/how-to-make-more-returns-on-reits/
Not too shabby here folks:
Join us in congratulating Mr. Neely for his recent showing in Timer Digest. In its May issue, the publication recognized Mr. Neely in its Top 10 list of S&P timers for the past 3 months (2/14/11 to 5/13/11). Furthermore, Mr. Neely ranked as a Top 5 Bond Timer for the entire year (May 2010 to May 2011) in the same issue. Other recent, significant Timer Digest recognitions for Mr. Neely include: - #1†in Gold timer for 12 months (October 2009-October 2010) - Recognized as a Top 5 S&P timer 5 times in 2010 - #1 S&P timer for 12 months (May 2008-May 2009) - #1 Gold timer for 12 months (October 2007-October 2008 The NEoWave Team
>> Libtard #...
CV, I concur with those lib-"tard" statements. :-)
And...it's gone.
Smashing fun for those of a bearish disposition today.
Nasty nasty market. Energy and banks being shellacked.
Still like Japan, REITs, even junk bonds.
We need to keep a close eye on the latter.
A breakdown is seriously big trouble.
Bond Report will return when:
a) I am less busy
b) When I can make sense of credit markets.
c) Next week, I promise. Definitely after July 4.
d) Karen posts more revealing icons here on a daily basis.
CV,
"The reason I singled out the Heat-Dallas series, is, it's really the first NBA Finals (in a while), that I have actually personally been interested in watching..."
Me too, and I AM a basketball fan. I think in sports just like markets there are people and teams that always buck the larger trend even when mood is negative and generally against it. WMT and MCD were both + in 2008, there will be sports stars that rise above the ashes but these "bull market sports" have certainly been in a downtrend for a while now while the "dirty" sports like MMA have exploded.
Socially the place I don't see the bear market as much as I expected to is in music. while we saw some of it, we did not have the same type of emergence in 2008 of things like "thrash rap" which was bear market type music like we did from 2000-02 when bands like Limp Bizkit got huge and boy bands and Britney took the back seat.
Granted, some of the pop songs have gotten darker messages but the actual sounds/arrangements don't seem so bear market to me as I'd have expected them. The only way I observe it in music is the way the artists look, Lady Gaga as an example, but more telling are those in the hipster groups, shag beards, "poor" looking outfits/style, a "dirty" look iow.
The music right now, you can see how we are still seeing the up wave social mood there, look at top Billboard songs titles
J. Lo's hot new track: "On the Floor" which is a party tune, or Lady Gaga's "On the Edge of Glory"....what a title, billboard #6 is called "Party Rock Anthem" and where it's easily seen is that the Black Eyed Peas are still popular....they are a bull market band if there ever was one: "I'm in the club, I've got my money, I've got a FEELING tonight's gonna be a good night" can't stand those guys...but they are huge. One Republic has a hit out called "Good Life" whereas in 2008 they had the hit "Apologize" w/lyrics "it's too late to apologize, it's too late".....the whole song is full of words like that, "Good Life" is most certainly upbeat with a happy whistle in the background, these guys seem to tap into the social mood quite well, their lead singer has written many other songs for big artists over the years.
The #1 billboard song in 08 was titled "Low"
Now I'm probably cherry picking here some but it generally fits.
JNK bounced rather sharply off its lows. Watch that closely...
Matthew, thanks for the Merkel piece, always interesting.
been busy, scanning every document, bills and whatnot I own for electronic storage... recently bought this, it's small, USB powered, copies to PDF and it's fast!
also, working on my indicator... seems one night punching in data I switched some numbers a couple of times, sign of getting old?
anywho...minor 18's
1296
...1287
1278
...1269 <-- bounced off this like a live frog in a hot skillet
1260
... Major 18's
1375
...1244
1112
...1006
The last time TICK has a reading this high (1200) was the week of 9/3/10.
Wait a f'in minute. When did C, BAC, JPM, WFC all turn positive for the day?
Personally I'll put myself out there to say I think folks are making a mistake not looking at any targets below 1250 for the bounce area:
a: it's too obvious of support saying we'll stop there, we can't rail all day about bots without realizing these people are smart enough to realize all kinds of orders and stops are set there.
b: if waves matter at all that's not the likely ending point (1250), Andy has generally had the same count for a long time now, I think that's worth noting again, maybe we are in a contracting triangle now, in which case the C wave is over as of today and we'll bounce hard from here, but the expanding triangle is still very much on the table as internals don't show positive divergence and many indicies are moving in lock step now.
c. I would also just like to point out from a primary trend perspective that the DOW theory now has the potential for a HUGE non-confirmation as the .DJT hit new highs and the .DJI never even got close to new nominal highs, we don't have a DT sell signal yet but this is worth watching for intermediate players. At minimum think of protection for your longs (stops/puts)
Ra,
True, however, with the benefit of hindsight, we were still clearly in bull market September 2010. TICK and TRIN reading rules need to be modified in bear market, perhaps the false giant TRIN was an early warning to start reading your indicators differently.
I don't know for sure, but it's on my mind.
Fed POMO is $62B where $12B is to reinvest in maturing. So $50B over 14 days is around $3.57B/day. Is that enough to keep the markets from imploding?
@ben
I'm not an MMA fan, and don't really know it other than the coverage it gets in the sports pages and, of course, the PPV advertising...
However - I know it has caught a pretty decent following, and they seem to play to packed houses...
CV,
I know quite a few guys around here that drive to AC for a lot of fights. I don't have much interest in it either, but it would seem to be very popular.
7-8 years ago you didn't really hear much about it, go to Dicks Sporting Goods recently? They have an entire section now dedicated to MMA gloves, mouthpieces, etc.
10 handles in 60 minutes. I remember when it would take all day just to move 4-5 handles. Can't go into opex week being down hard the week prior. Use this momentum to squeeze shorts and run stops.
looks like pennant to me on 1 day at ~1275 cash
still skeptical this C wave is completely over, wait for Daneric to say it is then trade the other way
that's like a 90% probability winner
Personally I'll put myself out there to say I think folks are making a mistake not looking at any targets below 1250 for the bounce area
---
I think I read somewhere today that even Tepper is coming out publicly and saying the S&P probably needed to give up 200-300 points before QE3 would be wheeled out...
Which is an interesting comment for probably only one reason:
It basically seems that (whereby QE1 & 2 were initiated to try and 'help the economy' - which, of course, was not true in practice)...
Now, any justification for further QE is only a game (openly acknowledged) to exist for banks to put to work bidding up paper prices on the 'asset du jour' (then, perhaps, frontrunning the crash on it)... all in concert with whatever needs the geo-political landscape has to be serviced at the time...
So bottom line: Monopoly money for bankers to play in the casino under the guise of funding government borrowing for as long as that is permitted to happen...
Ahh so that's what is was...http://www.zerohedge.com/article/friday-flush-sticksave-provided-fed-basel-capital-charge-requirement-be-lowered-3-2-25
Additional Basel requirements might be reduced to 2-2.5% from 3%. Figures.
Bulls still need every trick in the playbook since there's 45 minutes left in the trading day. Just sayin'.
check this out...
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/ball_dont_lie/post/Video-Sweet-8216-Sick-Dirk-8217-impressions?urn=nba-wp4730
CV,
don't forget when the Mavs lost to them last time around D. Wade was pretty harsh with Dirk saying he's the one that lost the series for them after Dirk said the refs were bad.
D. Wade basically said Dirk isn't a leader, so he didn't win.
High yield was ugly into the close.
That and the failure to hold 1275 are just fuel for the bears.
GROWL, ROAR....
There will be a bounce but too many people are thinking 1250.
I suggest it might be lower, at 1247 (2011 low).
A more optimistic note would be 1267 (2011 open).
@ben
Paybacks are a bitch, eh?
Basically - I'd chalk this series down to one theme...
Dallas is old & not many of those guys are going to be around long enough to make many more NBA finals (with young teams OKC around)...
This may be their ONLY legitiamte chance (and they have to just win one game out of two to do it)...
Miami might not say it, but they're young & probably think they're gonna win 5 or 6 rings together...
It's TOUGH fighting an opponent that may want it more badly than you do...
It's TOUGH fighting an opponent that may want it more badly than you do...
That's why they play the games. The "best team" doesn't always win.
Go Dirk.
Ben (10:12) - I agree with your earlier statement and add that instead of whinning and complaining if the poster (9:42) thinks something can or should be "Improved" then by all means make the suggestion.
Just cuz something doesn't work for someone, doesn't mean it doesn't work for everyone else. Hell McDonalds doesn't do the job for some people, so they choose Burger King.
With that being said, I do believe the button to get into the comment section should be made more visable as it is hard to see and someone who is either new or unfamiliar with this site may find it hard to find.
Anyway, just give you my two cents, better spend it quickly before it is QE'ed away.
Mangy Mutt
Mangy Mutt
I was wondering about that also. I'll look into it.
AmenRa - If you do not mind concidering my point of view a little further.
The comment botton is currently at the top of the thread, so in order to comment the reader has to go through the post then scroll alllllllll the way back up to the top
Yea scrolling is easy, but people don't like to do it and will avoid scrolling as much as possible, so if you could move the comment button to the bottom of the post, it might help people who don't want to scroll allllllllll the way back up.
Also the word "comment" is small and is easily lost, especially if someone has to scroll to find it.
So you may want to concider BOLDING it and or changing it from "Comment" To "Comment Here" or something like that.
Anyway, just my thoughts.
You have a great weekend.
Mangy Mutt
CV,
sounds like the Celtics doesn't it? I totally agree with you, those guys on the Mavs are likely a little more hungry.
Mangy Mutt,
what's up man, good to see you.
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