A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.
"I just can't catch a break."
Creditcane™: There is still no escape. Even Houdini failed against me.
SPXBullish short day (not a good confirmation of bullish harami). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing SMA(144). Failing trend line (3/6/09-7/1/10). Held the 85.4% retrace (1266.79). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1288.00). QE2infinity.
DXYBearish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (72.70). Tested and failed SMA(89). Failing its 38.2% retrace (75.99). Held its weekly 3LB mid. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 73.78).
VIXSpinning top day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (20.77). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 18.26). Finally escaped the "no fear" zone.
GOLDBullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (1578.30). Held SMA(21). Held its 14.6% retrace (1539.32). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1557.30). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.
EURUSDBullish short day (completed morning star). Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and held SMA(89). Failing its 76.4% retrace (1.4304). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1.4580).
JNKBullish short day (also bullish harami). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. No test of 0.0% retrace (38.59). Tested and held its 23.6% retrace (39.14). Failing trend line (2/5/10-2/12/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.88).
10YR YIELDBearish short day (yet still confirmed inverted hammer). Failing all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (28.93). Still below the upper trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 30.99).
WTIBearish long day (homing pigeon poisoned). Tested and failed SMA(233). Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (114.83). Tested and failed its 76.4% retrace (95.46). New low on dally 3LB (reversal is 97.84).
SILVERBullish short day. Failing SMA(89), SMA(55) & SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below the upper trend line. Held its 61.8% retrace (35.28). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 38.30). "You want delivery! You can't handle the delivery!"
BKXBullish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and held its 76.4% retrace (47.07). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 47.69).
AAPLBearish long day. Below all SMA's except SMA(233). Midpoint below EMA(10). Holding above lower trend line. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 350.70).
WORLD WIDE PREMIERE JULY 1, 2011
28 comments:
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/lee-adler/what-federal-tax-revenue-is-saying-about-the-economy
What Federal Tax Revenue Is Saying About the Economy
Friday music: Boom boom
mcHAPPY Friday night music contribution:
The Novaks
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lDEbL47fC_M
High yield had a sexy rebound mid-day. The whole sell-off in high yield was confusing to me in view of the relatively tight spreads in lower IG corporates. The fast money was following the momentum down in high yield while the rest of the institutional investors were (and continue) playing the dangerous game of chasing yield (picking up pennies in front of the bull-dozer.
I took it on the chin this week in high yield, but I still believe in my positioning: junk + AAA (and nothing in between).
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-16/ignored-greek-default-risk-makes-bank-stress-tests-irrelevant-.html
Ignored Greek Default Risk Makes Bank Stress Tests ‘Irrelevant’
I knew the headlines were coming:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stocks-have-their-first-apf-3293845373.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=
Stocks have their first winning week since April
Stocks post first weekly gains since April on signs that Greece will get more loans
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-06-17/euro-weakens-before-eu-leaders-meet-on-greece-rescue-oil-metals-advance.html
Stocks, Euro Rise on Greece Optimism
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/17/us-markets-stocks-idUSTRE75512M20110617
Dow, S&P rise, but Greek woes keep bears on prowl
"Smokey" Shand...Winnepeg soul. Costumes courtesy Compton circa '73.
Dude seems to have fallen off the planet.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLrUb7woLf0
AmenRa's Weekly 3LB Update (6/17/11)
http://www.relfe.com/plus_5_.html
link, you know, for those who may curious..
AAIP
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thisisinsane/2011/06/17/inflation-and-deflation-is-nuts/
"Right now one should engage in what I call “relaxed investing.” Just pick some big cheap, low volatile stocks that you can ride until September-October for a good 15-20%.
So stocks like INTC at 8 times forward earnings, AAPL with $65 billion in case and 12 times forward earnings; MSFT at 10x forward earnings; CSCO at 12x forward earnings; XOM (which will rise with oil); WMT (as consumer spending goes back to all-time highs), and JNJ (a Warren Buffett stock that benefits from 76 million baby boomers retiring,) are all strong buys here in anticipation of the market recovering to multi-year highs by Q3."
Key word here is 'forward earnings'. What happens if those earnings don't happen? Oh yeah, no one will have seen it coming.
Most likely that 15-20% will come - but not after a fun ride lower which will probably have people selling right when the gains come.
AAIP@11.40pm
Good story...that Fabian was a real "character."
mcHappy.
Apple really saw a "battle" at the $320 level to into expiration.
Very interesting to see the back and forth with that one.
This was classic
http://www.businessinsider.com/do-you-know-how-well-educated-i-am-2011-6
"Do you know how well educated I am?"
This video will go viral...she's going to have a very difficult time getting a J-O-B on Wall St.
It still fascinates me to look at fotos of golf holes (especially when I've had a history of having walked [or played] on the property)...
In the current rotation... Amen Ra has:
- The real AMEN coner (which CV has walked on several times but never 'played')
- The 7th at Pebble Beach (been there, played that numerous times)
- 14th at Whistling Straits (just once)
- The 17th at St. Andrews (have never been on the course - only to Scotland)...
- 17th at TPC Sawgrass (been there, done that, ONCE)
...and now (foto above), what amounts to a 'look' at the 10th hole at Congressional (from behind the green back to the clubhouse)...
While I've played CCC numerous times, I've never played that hole "as is"... That's the BLUE COURSE (and most of the times - I played the GOLD COURSE - which, to give you a geographical idea - the 1st hole on GOLD - relative to that foto - starts just at the left side of the clubhouse as you see it - then ventures out pretty much along the tree line (as it appears on the horizon), then doglegs almost 90 degrees hard left and comes at you [which pretty much means that the last tree on your left you see, is around where the 1st green is on the GOLD COURSE]...
GOLD #2 shoots off in the other direction from that point, but then comes wheeling back to where between the 3rd & 4th holes, you actually cross by the "tee box" of the 18th hole of the BLUE COURSE (which is that little sliver of peninsula green you see in the foto)...
In any case... CCC was was "redesigned"... So the foto above wasn't even a hole when Ernie Els won the US Open at CCC in 1997...
Instead, where the green is is basically where the tee box used to be, and all that swale area were once trees (which were removed)... The green used to be that little peninsula of ROUGH which you see [which is now just part of the landscape under where the tee boxes are now situated])...
I've never played it this "new" way... Last time I played CCC, the former configuration was still in place...
Anyway... The point is... What amazes and inspires CV is the fact that golf courses (and nature) undergo a constant transformation... It happens every year (for me) at the farm, (you know, the "non-existent" one, that I pay non -existent taxes on) as well... I find better ways to do things, and it keeps evolving... Plantings, rotations, etc...
It's a shame to realize that CENTRAL BANKS fight so hard against natural evolution...
@Andy T (11:21)
Yeah, that's why nobody should bother expressing thoughts ot ideas on BR's blog (or any other of the 'protestant' hybrids therof)...
How could you 'possibly' have anything relevant to say if you're not a either a Harvard grad (or a bootlicker thereof)...
cv: I've got to get back to that game now that there are no sports to follow. Haven't played seriously in four or five years. I "peaked" as 5.5 handicap...could "break through."
I need to start by buying a whole new set of woods. I play Mizuno 'blades' (MP-33), so I'm still happy with the irons. But, the "technology" on the woods seems to grow exponentially. My 7 year old Titleist Driver looks "ancient" nowadays.
should read above couldn't "break through"
This kid McIlroy is a serious talent. It'll be interesting to see if he can keep his shit together for four rounds.
linkage, for those who may be curious..
http://www.veteranstoday.com/2011/06/18/popeye-history-enslaving-a-generation/
AAIP
Read this people...
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/trading-over-counter-gold-and-silver-be-illegal-beginning-july-15
---
Then pause for a moment to think BEYOND your daily chart readings to figure out the deep underlying ramifications behind this action... (& what it likely portends)...
Then... think about CV (and his silly little "nickles bithez" comments - for what seems to be a generation of posts by now)...
If you can't see... Then I'm beyond being able to help anyone...
Hell - forget about the nickles for a moment... I'd suggest you start with a few bags of rice & flour...
Next thing you know, you won't even be able to buy it at the store unless it's US government certified "conflict free" wheat, rice, or corn...
I'm starting to become afraid to even type these things on the internet... This may be my last warning...
Giggle away... (I'm not much in the mood for giggling anymore)...
Certainly the more knowledgeable of you out there will quickly dismiss this fluff as hysteria...
Yeah... I suppose you're right... In the same way that I'd be 'hysterical' to think that the Patriot Act was basically just a license for the government to do away with whatever privacy you thought you enjoyed as a citizen...
Here's basically how things work...
PATRIOT ACT (Bush years)... Interpreted by 'other blogs = Those "nazi neocons" going all Big Brother on you...
PATRIOT ACT (Obama years)... "Good" because now big government is suddenly benevolent and looking after your best interests...
ATTEMPT TO REGULATE PM CONTROL VIA DODD-FRANK... "Good" because that same benevolent government that YOU elected in 2008 is still, looking after your best interests... And those interests include:
- Obamacare
- Deficits which can NEVER be paid back (but surely the 'interest' on the commonality of those debts can be SERVICED forevermore by way of taxes)
- Rules which essentially stifle you from accumulating a large position (if, by chance, you had the means to do so), of something OTHER than what the 'Jeckyl Island' crew (hopefully by now you've seen thru enough propaganda to decide what binds that particular group) says you MUST use (so they can continue to collect fees at the tollbooth - thanks for playing)...
Spend the rest of the weekend thinking about fortunate you are (while you're trying to figure out how to trade your monopoly money on Monday)...
Actually - There IS a funny side to all this...
I stop to think of all the things that have happened over the past year...
- from daily margin hikes on the COMEX
- to 'holiday weekend' AH raids
- to enacting 'Dodd-Frank' provisions
- to US Dollar printing (qe2 - going to European banks to buy Euros & remain solvent)
- to whetever else you want to nominate
& I see what has been a gargantuan effort (now almost desperate - it seems), to discredit PM's in the name of perpetuating fiat...
Then I think of things like 'bitcoin'...
Oh... I'm sure they'll unleash the nuclear arsenal to destroy PM's... But instead, BITCOIN will just rush in and take everyone by surprise...
I'll start becoming interested in BITCOIN when I start to see the howitzers pointed in that direction...
cv: I just read through the link you provided. It's not actually as bad or as foreboding as it might seem. Lots of "loopholes" and "if then" statements there....
I'll read further tomorrow when I'm more sober...
Perhaps I'm missing something.
@Andy T
Not as foreboding as it might seem?
---
Accredited Investor Qualifications
Section 413(a) of the Act alters the financial qualifications of who can be considered an accredited investor, and thus a qualified as eligible participant (“QEP”). Specifically, the revised accredited investor standard [includes only the following types of individuals:]
1) A natural person whose individual net worth, or joint net worth with spouse, is at least $1,000,000, excluding the value of such investor's primary residence;
2) A natural person who had individual income in excess of $200,000 in each of the two most recent years or joint income with spouse in excess of $300,000 in each of those years and a reasonable expectation of reaching the same income level in the current year; or
3) A director, executive officer, or general partner of the issuer of the securities being offered or sold, or a director, executive officer, or general partner of a general partner of that issuer.
Based on this language, it is important to note that the revised accredited investor standard only applies to new investors and does not cover existing investors. However, additional subscriptions from existing investors are generally treated as requiring confirmation of continuing investor eligibility.
---
Nothing to worry about that there, right? Please move along...
I know, I know, they're doing it 'FOR MY OWN SAFETY', right? Because unless I have a million bucks cash, I might not be considered very smart & end up doing something stupid and hurt myself...
Hey - while we're at it, why don't we just repeal the 15th & 19th amendments, because Peggy Joseph might end up doing something stupid...
Let's repeal the 2nd amendment (because someone may shoot somebody)...
Let's pass a NEW amendment saying that "unless you went to Harvard or Princeton, you ought to be banned from trading precious metals"...
Hey - we'll even tackle the 1st amendment while we're at it, and say that unless you AGREE with the kind of claptrap that is published on the Ritholtz (& friends) blogs, then an "internet police czar" will be appointed to sleuth out & track down your IP number and block you from all internet access "for life"...
Yeah - Those all sound like good ideas to me...
I'm glad I live in a free society...
While we're at it...
You know, on the subject of "who's qualified" and "who's not qualified" to do things...
You know, the Washington Wizards suck at basketball and the franchize is losing money (not sure about the "losing money" part - I'm just using it as an example)...
Instead, let's BAN then from the NBA... We'll put the WASHINGTON GENERALS in their stead... In fact, we'll keep coming up with new rules until the league essentially becomes the NEW YORK KNICKS & 27 Washington Generals...
Or... IMO... RIMM can't compete with Apple anymore... So let's help them out & "ban" them from participation in the mobile phone industry...
You MUST now use Netflix (because Blockbuster is unfit to compete)...
Pretty soon, you won't be able to grow a fucking tomato, spinach, or have a cow in your own back yard (because there is no way for the government to assure the safety of those)...
Only 'government approved' (irradiated, e-coli, spinach, tomatoes, & milk from California will be bonafide fit for consumption)...
No collecting sunlight on your home solar panels either (because we can't source the rays, or the foto voltaics)... & by the way... That "wind" that's powering your turbine may have come from a butterfly flapping their wings in China (which as we know, is an oppressive communist regime with a horrible human rights record)...
So the only ENERGY you'll be able to consume in the future will have to be certified BY US... We'll only charge you a small tax on all of this (which you'll FEEL GOOD about paying just so that you know you're in compliance with all the other good citizens of Oceania)...
@Andy
Look - I realize that I'm making a 'caricature' about this whole thing...
But really THINK (for a moment)...
It's all these little (seeming innocuous) things, that add up... That are slowly & steadily eroding your civil liberties...
---
To me, the banks are becoming increasingly 'scared shitless' as they realize that the precious metals markets are VERY THIN INDEED...
So they're rushing to get the rules changed as fast as they can...
I further realize that this legislation was passed last summer (so why NOW the uproar)? No specific answer to that other than to ask how many people (lawmakers included) bother to read these thousands of pages of legislation... They DON'T... They just sign them, you know, "to see what's in them"...
---
Frankly, not much of the 'rules' apply to me directly (in a strict sense) because...
- I'm trading large positions OTC
- I'm not employing leverage or margins
In some ways, & in practice, the above rules may end up HELPING 'physical' holders (because it may, just MAY, force an unwind of paper positions, causing a sudden drop in the sopt price)... Perhaps that WON'T happen too...
It's not my speculation as to what will happen in the short term (actually if it DOES happen, it may be a good chance for the smallest individuals to go to a local coin dealer and get a decent price before what I would imagine to be the the eventual de-coupling of paper & physical markets)...
So what IRKS me HAS NOTHING TO DO with what "prices" may do or may not do...
Instead, it irks me that at any time, lawmakers (who are bought & paid for by the banking lobby), and just come up with ways that exclude you from their little trading club...
Good thing FOR YOU though is that you can still trade fiat paper on "stocks" in the S&P...
What's the P/E on "Linked In" & "Pandora" again??? Are those looking 'attractive' from a valuation standpoint yet?
See what I mean?
Or I suppose I could just break down and buy long term US Treasuries...
You know... TO SAFEGUARD my assets...
Because I'm SURE the US Dollar will have the same buying power in 30 years that it does now...
What's more, the government has a GREAT balance sheet, and outstanding record for fiscal responsibility...
CV,
Haven't read your link yet but those are the rules for being accredited for almost anything, not a PM's thing. I had a client that just bought warrants in a bio tech that is working on HIV treatments, it is not publicly traded, he needed to meet those same exact qualifications in order to purchase that warrant, I've run across this several times in the past with various investments. In general you have access to more stuff the more money you have, this isn't really a market thing though, this seems to me to apply to everything in life, cars, houses, medical care, food....whatever.
These rules have been in place in generally the same form for quite some time now so far as I know. Still, I basically agree with you though, just because you meet the qualification doesn't mean you won't blow yourself up, maybe you are less likely.....maybe, though as I'm fond of saying, people are people, we seem to hear about millionaires going bust all the time right?
They have "better" rules for small investors, such as the "rule of 3" for FA's when giving "advice" on 401k's.
Also, I read a fascinating study yesterday that showed that brokers/retail FA's actually perform WORSE when a conflict of interest is disclosed, such as the fact that a rep could sell prop. mutual funds, which I found really interesting.
I'll check the link out now.
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