AmenRa's Corner

A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.

What??? Don't take it so personal bulls.

Creditcane™: I am a professional matador.

SPX
Bearish long day (didn't confirm morning star/bullish harami). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still failing SMA(144). Failing trend line (3/6/09-7/1/10). Failed the 85.4% retrace (1266.79). Failing monthly 3LB mid. Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 1288.00). QE2infinity.



DXY
Bullish LONG day. Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (72.70). Tested and held SMA(89). Easily held its 23.6% retrace (74.73). Held its weekly 3LB mid. New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 73.52).



VIX
Bullish LONG day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Still above all SMA's. Tested and held its 38.2% retrace (20.77). Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 18.26). Finally escaped the "no fear" zone.



GOLD
Bullish short day (confirmed bullish harami). Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (1577.40). Held SMA(21). Held its 23.6% retrace (1515.29). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1557.30). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.



EURUSD
Bearish LONG day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(55) & SMA(21). Failed its 76.4% retrace (1.4346). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1.4650).



JNK
Bearish short day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. No test of 0.0% retrace (39.40). Tested and failed its 14.6% retrace (39.62). Failing trend line (2/5/10-2/12/10). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 39.96).



10YR YIELD
Bearish LONG day. Failed SMA(21). Midpoint at EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (29.19). Still below the upper trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 29.62).



WTI
Bearish engulfing day (actually engulfed the bullish engulfing). Failing SMA(144) and held SMA(233). Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (114.83). Tested and failed its 61.8% retrace (98.93). New low on dally 3LB (reversal is 97.70).



SILVER
Bullish short day (confirmed bullish harami - barely). Failing SMA(89) & SMA(21). Midpoint below EMA(10). Still below the upper trend line. Held its 61.8% retrace (35.28). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 38.30). "You want delivery! You can't handle the delivery!"



BKX
Bearish short day (confirmed shooting star). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 76.4% retrace (47.07). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 47.69).



HYG/LQD
Bearish long day. Made a new 0.0% retrace (0.8053). Below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 0.8113).

LEFTBACK'S BOND REPORT

The Return of The Bond Report™ 6.15.11

It was, obviously, RISK OFF. As always, the credit markets led the way, with Treasuries rallying early. Yet the long bond struggled to make headway at times during the day and the 1-month chart reveals a series of lower highs. That's bearish for the 30y, folks.

Spreads were wider on the day, but JNK stayed above its recent lows, and there was no sense of panic selling in credit. Looking at the charts, LQD, AGG and TIP have had a great run and are quite vulnerable to any decent economic data, should we ever see any again.

IQI and MUB have staged a massive recovery on the back of lower yields in USTs and are also bumping into resistance, the same for higher quality MBS. Might be time for a jump back into the lower quality end of the pool?

Corpies: LQD 0.55%; AGG 0.25%; JNK -0.53%; HYG -0.42%
Govies: TLT 1.82%; IEI 0.62%; TIP 0.52%
Munis: IQI -0.16%; MUB -0.06%
Mortgages: MBB 0.15%
Specialty: ZROZ 2.83%; TBT -3.43%; EMB -0.09%

We have very little F/I here, just 5% in JNK. We started a hedge today.
Long 5% JNK and short 6% TLT.

WORLD WIDE PREMIERE JULY 1, 2011