A place where a skillful caddy always offers cool contemplation when it comes to your "stick" selection.
That's right. We're performing our annual Stomp The Yard!!!
Creditcane™: I dare you to back me into a corner again.
SPXBearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing SMA(144). Failing trend line (3/6/09-7/1/10). Failed the 76.4% retrace (1277.73). Failing monthly 3LB mid. Had a weekly 3LB reversal down. New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 1286.17). QE2infinity. "JBTFD. Any questions?"
DXYBullish long day (completed three white soldiers pattern). Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (72.70). Tested and held SMA(55). Tested and held its 23.6% retrace (74.73). Held its weekly 3LB mid. Daily 3LB reversal up (reversal is 73.52).
VIXBullish long day. Midpoint above EMA(10). Back above all SMA's. Held its 23.6% retrace (18.28). New high on daily 3LB (reversal is 18.30). Wants to escape the "no fear" zone.
GOLDBearish engulfing day (but direction is sideways). Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (1577.40). Above all SMA's. Failed its 14.6% retrace (1539.32). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 1557.30). Holding above upper trend line. Must have the precious.
EURUSDBearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Tested and failed SMA(55). Tested and failed its 76.4% retrace (1.4346). Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 1.4692). "Run Trichet. Run."
JNKBearish long day (annihilated bullish harami star). Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. No test of 0.0% retrace (40.93). Tested and failed its 100.0% retrace (39.58) - new range coming. Tested and failed trend line (2/5/10-2/12/10). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 40.05).
10YR YIELDBearish harami day (in a downtrend no less). Still below all SMA's. Midpoint below EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (29.19). Still below the upper trend line. No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 30.61).
WTIBearish long day. Failed SMA(144). Midpoint above EMA(10). No test of 0.0% retrace (114.83). Tested and failed its 50.0% retrace (102.07) but held its 61.8% retrace (98.93). No dally 3LB changes (reversal is 111.41).
SILVERBearish engulfing day. Failed SMA(89) & SMA(21). Midpoint above EMA(10). Back below the upper trend line. Failing its 50.0% retrace (38.05). Failed lower edge of triangle. Daily 3LB reversal down (reversal is 38.30). ""You want delivery! You can't handle the delivery!"
BKXDoji day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Failing all SMA's. Tested and failed its 76.4% retrace (47.07) but held its 85.4% retrace (46.03). No daily 3LB changes (reversal is 47.69).
CATBearish long day. Midpoint below EMA(10). Below all SMA's except SMA(233). Made a new weekly low. Closed below its monthly 3LB reversal price (97.01). New low on daily 3LB (reversal is 101.10).
WORLD WIDE PREMIERE JULY 1, 2011
38 comments:
Sleep well bulls. The bears are having a lockdown party all weekend.
Thanks, Ra.
Andy, very much looking forward to your insights on Sunday evening.
Get your groove on this weekend: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_bYDuGK_YWs
-BELMONT STAKES-
Nothing interesting, as CV will be going with the 'chalk' on this one...
ANIMAL KINGDOM & NEHRO ($20 exacta box)
CV's Quick and dirty handicapping formula (just like looking for holocaust movies come Oscars time - and if your conscience won't allow you to think in that way - well then, no bother, just be a good little Bo Peep and hand your money over to the cashier - thanks for playing) is as follows:
- Look for the Nick Zito horse...
- If no Nick Zito horse is entered, then it means he doesn't think he has a horse that is any better at going a mila & a half than one or several horses in the field...
- Animal Kingdom & Nehro have both proved that they can handle these distances...
- They're running against the same horses that proved they COULDN'T handle these distances in the past two races...
- The aforementioned horses probably sense an easy payday (before they have to 'step it up' into the world of 4 year olds & up...
- But these will probably be the #1 #2 betting choices (giving you 'short odds' on WPS bets)...
- So, to improve the payout, BOX them in an exacta... But keep it light (you know - beer & a hot dog money)... You never know if some chosen horse will suddenly put in a miracle day...
---
Today's extravaganza brought to you by the reconstituted New York State Racing Commission... FIXING horse races for your Foolish Pleasure since 1895...
-
Prechter wrote about Bitcoin maybe a year ago saying this was the future of money, to be honest I never really thought much about it until now, just came across this article:
http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/112907/bitcoin-triples-again-smartmoney
@ben
I've known about bitcoin for awhile now... While I can understand it to a degree... I don't yet buy Prechter's endorsement (if indeed that's what his discussion amounted to)...
Frankly - CV has a different perspective...
- There will be an end to FIAT (eventually)...
- There will be a NEW fiat, eventually, (which will come to be accepted - then FAIL after about another 100 years - give or take 200 years)...
- What's important is NEITHER of the above two (almost certain occurrences) is actually what's 'practically' relevant...
- Instead - What's important is what will happen in the IN-BETWEEN period...
- Which will be...
- Economic 'LAYERS'... (various systems of exchange that exist congruently - not unlike the way the Italian economy exists today)... Some barter, some monetary exchange, some 'other'...
The only important thing is to be able to navigate through it all with minimum disruption to what you consider your 'lifestyle'...
This usually requires a combination of:
- Dumbing down certain expectations
- diversification
- infrastructural knowledge
- negotiating skills
- patience
- opportunism
Some will fare well... Others won't... As EVER as has always been... The wheel in the sky keeps on turning...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q6oCg2JClA4
@Anon (from yesterday)
Was that enough 'hashing out' for your delicate pallette?...
Or would you require cute poodle pictures & 'pissing Pharaoh' statuettes bought at a gift shop to help you along?
AR, thx for the "new battery" article.
"A sample of 'Cambridge crude' — a black, gooey substance that can power a highly efficient new type of battery. A prototype of the semi-solid flow battery is seen behind the flask."
We go from one black gooey substance (oil/gas) to another.
Wonder how much they'll charge to drain out the old gooey and pump in the new? Is it hazardous?
Israel bank chief seeks IMF role
http://www.breakingnews.ie/business/israel-bank-chief-seeks-imf-role-508676.html
So I was listening to the radio in the truck the other day and this advertisement comes on from this local jeweler chain stating that they'll pay you a 50% 'premium' if you come in with your scrap gold or sterling silver...
So naturally, my curiosity was piqued... I called them to ASK them how the 50% was calculated (knowing that the going 'competitive' rate for a dealer buying sterling silver was usually between 75% to 80% of spot)...
The girl on the line was doing everything she could to try and keep the conversation on the SPOT PRICE (which was about $36.20 on Friday's close)...
Finally I got her to say that 'their' price was $15.67 (plus the 50% bonus - which took it to some $23 and change)...
Ha! What a friggin scam...
I expect to see more & more of this as the paper markets for PM's will likely follow a decline in equity prices until the debt ceiling is eventually raised (which it will be)... & QE3 comes along (which it will)...
Speaking of RAISING...
This article, if truthful, ought to RAISE some eyebrows next week...
Exclusive: The Fed's $600 Billion Stealth Bailout Of Foreign Banks Continues At The Expense Of The Domestic Economy, Or Explaining Where All The QE2 Money Went
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/exclusive-feds-600-billion-stealth-bailout-foreign-banks-continues-expense-domestic-economy-
---
As for where CV's horses 'went' (in the Belmont yesterday)...
First off... When I made the morning prediction, I wasn't aware that it was raining in Elmira, NY (so CV can BLAME IT ON THE WEATHER... ha!)... Both horses I liked were closing horses (and generally, young horses don't like getting mud kicked in their faces for a mile & a half... That scenario usually favors frontrunners (which is how it played out)
Also, Animal Kingdom stumbled badly out of the gate and even threw an iron... Never had a chance after that...
Comme ci Comme ca... That's why I only went with a paltry $20 wager to begin with...
@ben
I would like to hear your thoughts/arguments on that ZH article (linked)...
Frankly, I haven't wrapped myself around it completely just yet (mainly because - despite the charts - it STILL can only be interpreted as anecdotal)...
However... If it IS true... It might explain a lot of the strange behavior in the markets since QE2 started (& 'my' timeline still goes back to a month before Jackson Hole last year, not the OFFICIAL November kickoff date)...
Those things include:
- Why the Euro strength/dollar weakness (which had been kind of a head scratcher)
- The reason US Treasuries were weak (until recently)
& other stuff...
@ben
The reason I ask for your input is because [the following] is generally how I interpret the scenario if I were tasked with coming up with a computational model:
1. First... Is it true (what the article claims - that QE2 basically went to foreign banks)?
If TRUE, then, what if this information gets around... people will be VERY pissed... But the question there is... Can someone spin a convincing enough lie to cover it up... Answer there is probably YES too, because it seems that Americans have been lied to consistently for at least 100 years now...
So let's just say that CV thinks that EVEN IF IT IS TRUE, people will opt to be lied to instead of grabbing a pitchfork... That's why you elect people like Obama & Bush...
Next... Once you figure out that nobody is really even going to ever hang for what amounts to an impeachable offense... Then you can pretty much commit the same crime over and over IN BROAD DAYLIGHT... Which is why QE3 - QE18 are the likely outcomes (Especially given the notion that since QE2 isn't sitting around anywhere - it's been basically SPENT by European banks), then that leaves NO BUYER of US Treasuries (except for the Fed to just 'monetize')...
Which form that takes (and into which asset class[es] for the duration) is anybody's guess at the moment...
My hypothesis would be that ES 'would NOT' necessarily be a beneficiary... In fact, I think I might be putting my chips on the 'BUST MEREDITH WHITNEY' trade... Purely political, of course (to save disintegration of these in the run-up to 2012)... Naturally BLUE munis will take precedence over RED munis... But really - even THAT is debatable...
Remember that the Rothschilds were funding BOTH sides of the war...
Anyway - there are a lot of things at work here (which is basically why CV has taken to making prediction models based on the 'corruption' factor, rather than fundamentals (or even technical models - which were supposedly based on fundamentals or PREDICTABLE behavioral patterns in a byegone era)...
Back from cruising. Just now travelling back to Houston. Looking forward to catching up later this evening.
AT
I'm still waiting for the ANON who posted this comment the other day...
http://traders-anonymous.blogspot.com/2011/06/morning-corner-61011.html?showComment=1307713936757#c6662294731116258141
... to "hash out" an intelligent REBUTTAL to any of the original thoughts I have posted on this thread...
rebuttal coming in 5...4...3...2..
Still no reply from ANON...
It must be because he's worried STIFF about this:
F-15s intercept plane near US presidential retreat
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/usmilitarysecurityobama
Good news for all you 'BO-peeps' out there... The crack NORAD team is there to handle things for you 24/7 (keeping you all safe & sound)...
I'm just still wondering where they were on 9/11, when AA #77 apparently flew directly over the White House airspace - then straight over Reagan Airport - did a full 270 - and smashed right into the ONI (Office of Naval Intelligence)... Or - why were there no Penatgon cameras (ostensibly - the most heavily protected military building on the planet) which photographed the plane hitting the Pentagon...
I know - I know - the cameras had probably just been leased out on that day, PREPPING, a decade in advance, so they'd be ready to film the capture of Bin Laden before they ceremoniously & carefully dumped him into the Indian Ocean after anointing him with frankincence, myrhh, & scented oils, faced Mecca, said the obligatory prayers, and re-checked Obama's birth certificate all in the same tidy CBS Evening News wrap-up byte" ...
My bad...
---
On a different note (and of course, more importantly): How are those DOW minis looking for the open tomorrow?
>> Exclusive: The Fed's $600 Billion Stealth Bailout Of Foreign Banks Continues At The Expense Of The Domestic Economy, Or Explaining Where All The QE2 Money Went
Well, what can we do? Not enough people voting for "fringe" politicians, like Paul, Nader or Sanders. So... It seems like folks in the US will simply "soldier on" until their bellies go empty.
I think "bitcoin" will be a wash -- UNLESS a national government were both to:
a) accept it as payment
b) not tax appreciation of bitcoins in terms of any other currency
Those two decrees infuse a currency with "value". After "value" comes durable confidence.
Yo. Fully back from the vacation now...back in the home front. Friggin' tired..
Looking forward to the Game 6 tonight. Should be epic.
Can the Heat win two in a row? Can Dirk get another win in Miami?
What a Finals....
It's going to take may a few days to get charts again...I'm in the process of changing vendors away from TradeStation.
So, Bucky caught a bid and the S&P500 shat the bed last week ...
whocouldaknow'd?
>> Fully back from the vacation now...back in the home front. Friggin' tired..
Seems we need *another* vacation, after just returning from one. Funny how that works!
"It's going to take may a few days to get charts again...I'm in the process of changing vendors away from TradeStation."
Nooooooooo!
lol
Hope you had a good trip, Andy. Looking forward to the next S&P update.
Welcome back Andy. I hope the trip was enjoyable.
Weekly 3LB Update (6/10/11)
@wunsa
Bitcoin, to me, is basically a non-starter due to the possible mixture of exchanges in illegal & illicit activities...
Tho the mere thought of even typing that last statement is tonights moment of hilarity...
More hilarity ensues by the minute...
http://news.yahoo.com/s/atlantic/worldbankcutslinksimfaftermajorbreachsecurity38739
So last year, it was "Waddell & Reed", this year it'll be hotel maids, & some hackers with punk hairdos & an attitude...
IOW... Go back to your vacations guys... All you're missing here are this years excuses & fat fingers...
Summer of recovery 2.0 will be here in 5...4...3...2...
- the Nobel Peace prize winning teleprompter in chief will keep all enemies in his rifle scope crosshairs...
- & Ritholtz will borrow Lazlo's ruler to explain how it is all actually bullish...
...because these are all the types of things that generally happen in a typical recovery...
Git yer Nobel Peace Prize training right here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ohl_dA_zzz4
So...after I baked a batch of brownies to include in the dinner I thought I was bringing to a neighbor who just had a baby, I realized that I was supposed to make that dinner two weeks from now. (Story of my life.) Quickly, before the natives could devour said brownies, I walked them down the street to repurpose them as a welcome gift to new neighbors. Turns out that the wife has some work-from-home job with First Trust Advisors. I mentioned my obsession and my familiarity with Brian Wesbury, and she actually said that he has been dropped from certain business news networks because he is "too positive on the economy, and you know, the media likes to portray everything as all gloom and doom." Really? I still let my kids stay and play though.
To clarify, the obsession is not with Brian Wesbury, but, as you well know, with the stock market.
If the Mavericks hold on here to win it all, Kudos to that team...would be great Championship.
If the Heat somehow come back to win this game, the Game 7 on Tuesday will be CRAZY.
I'm hoping for a Game 7....luv' those!
The Brownies some of my friends make are not suitable for children.
Wow.
Mavs win 3 of last 4 games in the series.
Solid.
Championship stuff there.
Andy T
Miami didn't play as if they wanted to win. You could see it in their body language.
Hello, Bertie here, I've been busy during our long weekend here replacing exterior boards on my house, my injuries would indicate that I should stick to my day job. The other lesson learnt is don't own a timber home.
Anyway, have been enjoying the back-and-forth banter on the blog lately and looking forward to Andy's charts. Am putting on a 20% long equity position loking for a bounce, I mean I can't stay 100% cash for the rest of my life.
Best Bertie
That would be "looking" for a bounce.
I want to make clear that I cannot blame the shiraz for such poor typing..
actually I'm drinking a vintage beer(?!) from a boutique South Australia brewer, that at 7.5% does cloud one's head quite easily.
Bertie
While busy providing clarifictions, have I mentioned that 'shiraz' is an Australian corruption of 'syrah' (grape variety)? We were pretty much all convicted criminals in the early days out here, so what can you expect.
For my wine cellar I have adopted a 100% long Aussie Shiraz position.
Bertie
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